all i can say is i think we have a new contender for top grossing movie of the year THANK GOD!!!!

Yeah! It already beat Transformers thank god. I'm still sticking with my predictions of 62 million today 31 million Wednesday and 112 million from Fri-Sun.

It's a question of how much fanboy mania is going on here. But I think that's an incredible start which will give it at minimum a $60M opening day, and may help beat Transformers 2 for opening weekend. But it could also mean that it is heavily frontloaded. Order of the Phoenix was heavily frontloaded on its Wednesday open at 44M leading to a 77M opening weekend. With that in mind, I see $63M Wed, followed by a $25M Thurs and a weekend at about $100M. May come up just under Transformers 2 with $188M but maybe it will have better legs with no blockbusters coming out til G.I. Joe.

I am not surprised. I saw it at midnight and every single theatre at the theatre I went to was packed (ten to twelve theatres total) and everyone I've talked to has said it was the same situation wherever they went. I really hope this film beats Transformers because quality-wise it truly deserve it.

Wow…. Thats one shocking opening… Not that it wasnt expected to open well, but then nobody expected it to be bigger than Transformers:ROTF.

Unlike Order of the Pheonix though, this film is getting much better reviews, and it seems like the audience response so far has been pretty positive. So I think this one might hold up a bit better duiring it's openning weekend. However, after that I think it will drop-off and finish up with about 325 million while I think Transformers will likely hit 380 or 390 million domestically. I'm still hoping that Avatar will outgross both though.

@Terry:
After a start like this, i think the WOM would have to be really really bad for it to fail to reach the $350mil mark. The chances of that seem to be pretty low.

And yes. Even i want to see Avatar becoming the Biggest Movie of the Year. It Could.

This news made my day. I don't want to get my hopes up, but maybe this could pass Transformers domestically, or even worldwide? Things are looking bright for Harry Potter right now, and Warner Bros. must be relieved that they pushed back that release date. I saw it at midnight and it was amazing, and the audience seemed to agree, so word of mouth probably isn't going to hurt this one.

@athar: wow fail i fully expected it to smash t:rotf and even tdk

I hope it craps all over Transformers. TF2 was effing AWFUL.

OMFG.

I'm just totally ……. shocked. I always knew that the midnight gross would be higher than the one that HP5 made 2 years ago, but …… definetely not at this level. 22 million in just a single midnight showing is just un-freaking-believable. It's now a fact that this week we are having the 3rd 60+ million single day gross in box office history.

For the 5 day I just don't know what can happen, maybe the fan rush was extremely high, more than the one that TF2 had, so that this one will still keep the 5 day record, or maybe it will just be destroyed by Potter.

@The Check Spot: It's more like nothing that looks like a blockbuster until G.I. Joe, which HP could still overtake as buzz on G.I. Joe is pretty bad. That's if nothing in between is a blockbuster.

Why don't we analyze the weeks between?

July 24 has three major releases in the form of the 3-D family film G-Force, the R-rated chick flick The Ugly Truth, and the horror film Orphan. The big threat this week is G-Force. Apparently the trailer is a hit with the kids and the 3-D factor is a definitive draw, so that could take away some of HP's business. The Ugly Truth will draw away some of the female crowd for sure but not much else so it's probably a non-factor. Orphan is a derivative R-rated horror film so that is definitely a non-factor.

July 31 has two major releases in the form of the Judd Apatow-directed Funny People and the family film Aliens in the Attic. Aliens in the Attic has pretty much no stars and no buzz whatsoever so that's a non-factor so the big threat this weekend is Funny People. This is a bit tricky to call, but like The Hangover, which didn't look like a blockbuster, this far out before it's release date, I believe buzz is growing for this. Test screenings have been very enthusiastic and the R-rated trailer that was recently released has been better received that the original trailer. As shown last weekend, R-rated comedy goers were disappointed with Bruno so they're looking for something to satisfy their craving, which I think Funny People has the potential to do.

Thank God it beat Transformers. I was upset with how the movie turned out though.

i have HP doing about $57-$60 Million Opening Day(including midnight) dropping to aobut $25 Million Thurs and a weekend of $110 Million. But i think next week it will have its hand full with G-Force which i have opening with about $42 Million and The Ugly Truth doind a solid $28 Million. And then the following week Funny People wil opening with no less than $38 Million but may end up with $40 Million to kead the Box Office. Aliens in the Attic should end up being a solid mid-level hit and open to $15 Million give or take a few. But i think G.I.Joe should do great i have it opening with Wolverine type numbers the tracking has been very good. Its opening weekend
has been tracking between Watchmen and Wolverine so thats always good news for Paramont.

G.I. Joe looks like Team America without the puppets. Hopefully District 9 will be the next, if not the last major blockbuster of the summer.

@Onslaught: Tracking has been terrible this year. ReelSource predicted above 50M OW for Land of the Lost.

Yates did a horrible job wit this movie. He concentrated too much on the angst of people trying to get together, and not enough time creating a climactic end. Speaking of which, a lot of beloved parts were edited out which just shows to tell you that Yates knows nothing about staying true to the fans or the series. I doubt he read the books. Anyways, even though we all complain, many Potter fans, both of the movie and books, are flocking to the theaters to see it. There will be big numbers for Wed (past $62 mil) and Thurs (past $40 mil) and the weekend will see a bigger than $100 for HBP.

I am now giving up on hope that this series will be vindicated with the two final movies coming up. Yates screwed it up worse than anything. I just hope in another 20 or 30 years when someone tries to remake these novels, they do a good job staying faithful to the story.

@cocina: @cocina: not the kind of series you "remake"

@jeremy wein: I think it would be a good series to remake. Look at LoTR, but then again those were cartoons. Maybe a CGI Potter series. I just want justice for the books :(

First off, Yay for Harry! It's a solid film (my number 3 for the summer after "The Hangover" and "Star Trek") and one of the better installments of the franchise. Man, it was such a pain getting tickets for the screening and even though there were four separate showings, every single one was sold out, so that's great news. It'll probably be the number one film for the next two weeks unless "Funny People" really takes off, which I feel that it won't. I can safely say that this'll be the biggest movie worldwide this year- it'll either break or come very close to breaking the $1 billion barrier. The hype is enormous, the fan response is great, the timing is right- it has everything in its favor.

Just quickly, I don't want to get too off topic here; "The Ugly Truth" seems like a misfire to me; first off it looks horrible. Second, it's an R-rated film that's aimed at women- with the exception of "Sex and the City" and other phenomena, R-rated chick flicks falter more often than not. Also, in my opinion, Katherine Heigl and Gerard Butler, as likable as they are, are no Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds. Plus every single time "The Proposal" trailer was played after "The Ugly Truth", "Proposal" won out in audience reaction. Plus it was PG-13 and therefore more accessible to the public. The film could do alright I think, but I'll be surprised if it makes more than $60 million tops, and even that's a stretch.

"Funny People" is not the R-rated Judd Apatow extravaganza that the TV spots make it out to be- it's a comedy with heavy dramatic elements, and one that has a little Oscar buzz if I here correctly. I don't think this film will go over well for the "Knocked Up"/"Superbad" crowd; it's totally not what they expect. I mean, if "Bruno" didn't satiate their raunchy comedy appetite, then nothing else this summer will (except a repeat screening of "The Hangover", which I heartily recommend).

I've read that there's plenty of raunchy humor to satisfy the Knocked Up/Superbad crowd for Funny People.

The Harry Potter movies are EXTREMELY frontloaded, and that's got nothing to do with bad word of mouth or anything. I don't know why this happens, but if you look at the boxoffice data of all previous movies, you'll see that.

I remember when the first Harry Potter broke the opening weekend record (oh my, the days when 90 million were a record! :P ) and everyone thought it would top Titanic. But stopped at 320m. A few weeks later, Lord of the Rings opened with something like 45m and did the same total as Harry.

Things just got worse with the latter movies. I don't know why, since from what I read, the series only got better with each new chapter. (I only watched the first movie, so this is not my word)

If this movies reaches 200m in five days (I think it's gonna), it probably will do around 400 million, maybe a little more, but not much more. Around the same numbers Transformers will do.

Both Hary Potter and Transformers are not boxoffice phenomenoms like The Dark Knight was, don't matter how much money they do in their first few days.

Oh, but DEFINITELY this movie will top 1 billion worldwide.
Maybe we're a lucky enough and this Harry Potter can top Mamma Mia at the UK boxoffice? :D

@Leandro Dubost: I think it has more to do with the fact that the Harry Potter movies have mostly appealed more to its fanbase than a general audience. The fanbase is large enough to make it do great numbers, just not groundbreaking ones.

The Dark Knight, however, had the kind of story that could reach an audience larger than the Batman fanbase. It worked as more than just a comic book film; it worked as a crime drama. Plus, there was a lot of pre-release hype of different varieties, the most notable of which was the performance of Heath Ledger as well as his death.

I am not a fan of the Harry Potter movie fanchise, but anything that can beat crap like Transformers 2 has got support!!

this movie sucked

While it is news, I don't really see what the big deal about this is that people are making all over the web. The only reason why these midnight record screenings are rising over time is because more people know about them. I do not know when they started doing this, but people now are 1) More willing to go somewhere at 12 midnight and 2) know they exist.

I for one had no idea they even did midnight screenings until after Pirates Of The Carribean; At World's End came out and those numbers were pretty good.

as to the repeated viewing thing i think that by the imax release being delayed more people will see it twice then would have seen it only once if it opened the same day in imax as regular theaters

@Jay Beezy

I agree.

That will explain IF Harry Potter doesn't beat the opening day record.
With such a high midnight number, that record should be considered taken. But, if it fails at that, it confirms what you said.
Because midnight showings are just for the fans and nothing else. And Harry Potter has such a HUGE fanbase nowadays, probably the biggest since Star Wars. But when it comes to the regular movie audience, maybe Harry is not as popular as Batman or (ugh!) Transformers.

Let's see.

Harry Potter reportedly grossed $58.2 million yesterday. That's just $4 million behind Transformers 2, and the second highest opening day ever. However, it should be noted that Harry Potter will probably have a much smaller drop from Wednesday to today, due to word of mouth, so by the time Friday comes around Harry Potter and Transformers 2 should be around tied for their grosses.

@Bustray: I guess you mean second highest opening wednesday ever, because it actually is the Fourth Biggest Opening Day ever after TDK, T2 and Spider-Man 3.

we were all just so go-damned HP deprived for the last year….hehehehe