I guess this shouldn't surprise me as much as it does, considering when my sister got her Amazon Kindle on Christmas Day the first book she bought was Nicholas Sparks's "Dear John" and practically had it finished by the end of the day. I mention this because Dear John, the filmed adaptation of Sparks's book starring Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried, brought in an estimated $13.8 million on Friday from 2,969 theaters. This number marks the best opening day for a Screen Gems feature, for a Nicholas Sparks adaptation and a record opening day for a film on Super Bowl weekend.
One person guaranteed to be surprised by this result is our very own Box-Office Oracle, Laremy Legel, who predicted Dear John would only manage $14.7 million for the entire weekend. Oops. But really, despite my little personal story at the opening of this article, who could have predicted such a massive number? The question now is whether or not this is a number that will continue throughout the weekend… or…
Will Avatar make a comeback? Currently it's in the hole by over $7 million as Avatar took in an estimated $6.1 million on Friday, and this is where things get tricky.
Looking at Dear John's numbers I am going to guess it ends around $33 million for the weekend, a number that is already higher than Avatar's number last weekend, which tells me Avatar's consecutive weeks as #1 at the box-office will end at seven. My guess is it will end around $26 million for the weekend, which still takes its total to $632 million so I don't think Fox is complaining.
As for this weekend's other new release, Lionsgate's From Paris With Love came in third with $3 million and what is likely to be an $8-9 million weekend, an unfortunate number considering how much fun this film is. However, releasing a predominantly "guy" movie on Super Bowl weekend probably isn't the best idea. Sort of like how releasing Dear John on Super Bowl weekend is a fantastic idea.
While Laremy predicted an Oscar bump for Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire and An Education (both Best Picture nominees and both receiving 447 and 685 theaters respectively. However, it looks like Fox Searchlight's Crazy Heart is the only one getting a bump. Coincidentally it wasn't nominated for Best Picture, but Jeff Bridges's Oscar-nominated performance is certainly worth a watch. Crazy Heart say a 90% jump in business with an expansion of 239 theaters to 819, resulting in an estimated $1.08 million on Friday and a likely $3-4 million for the weekend.
Variety's report doesn't include any of the other films getting a post-Oscar nomination bump so we'll have to see how the bottom shakes out when Laremy is here on Super Bowl Sunday to deliver the complete results from the weekend box-office. For now, check out the Friday top ten below and let your feelings be known as Avatar looks to fall to #2.
- Dear John – $13.8 million
- Avatar – $6.1 million
- From Paris With Love – $3 million
- Edge of Darkness – $2.3 million
- When in Rome – $2 million
- The Tooth Fairy – $1.6 million
- The Book of Eli – $1.5 million
- Crazy Heart – $1.08 million
- Legion – $1.06 million
- Sherlock Holmes – $785,000
I think Avatar will make a comeback and all the movies will topple on Sunday. Dear John might hold well on Sunday considering it's a demographically a female film. I wonder how The Hurt Locker and An Education are faring this weekend.
Nah, I think Dear John's got a lock on the weekend. Too big a gap for Avatar to make a comeback, and isn't Hurt Locker out of theaters since it's on DVD now?
@Just Myself: The Hurt Locker was slightly re-released. Anyway, I do think DJ will dominate the weekend and Laremy's streak ends right here.
@Eric:
As much as we might wish that, it won't happen. Even if "Dear John" plays out like a front-loaded picture, it'll make $30. "Avatar" will have to do somewhere around $13 million on Saturday to even be competitive, not to mention it'll crash on Sunday (all films with the exception of female-oriented flicks will drop severely due to the Super Bowl).
As Brad said, it'll more likely take a strong #2 position with a take in the mid-20 million range.
Aw. 8 weeks felt like such a right number for Avatar to hold onto #1. I guess it wasn't to be. Glad to see that the box office is doing well, though. Avatar holding on to its #1 position any longer would have meant that any opening releases would have had to disappoint, and I wouldn't want that to happen. Avatar's going to be in the Top 5 for a while yet; It'll get #2 this weekend, then next weekend it'll get #3 or #4, and then the weekend after it'll jump back up to #2 (because the President's Day openers will drop 40-60%, whereas Avatar will continue its 10-20% thing), and it may even keep #2 for the weekend of the 26th-28th. We'll see.
@Just Myself: That reminds me of something. Let's say that "The Hurt Locker" takes the big prize come Oscar night. Is there any Best Picture winner that had grossed significantly less than "The Hurt Locker"'s $13 million or so take? Wasn't "Crash" supposed to be the least popular Best Picture winner of recent times?
@Vince (Not Vance): Honestly, I really don't want Avatar to make a comeback, I just think that it will, it tends to do modest business on Fridays then everything pours in Sat. and there's a small Sunday drop-off.
If we assume that Avatar takes Saturday and Dear John takes Sunday, this might be a clincher for Dear John. It all depends on that hard to read female demographic.
Either way, for this weekend, I'm not all that interested in who wins it, I'm more interested in seeing how the Oscar nominees receiving expansion (and re-expansion) will do.
@Eric: I know, right? I might see UITA, but that depends on how good the 2/12 releases are.
I'm shocked and in disbelief by this figure; however, I wouldn't bet against Avatar just yet. Let's see those final numbers.
@m1: Exactly! This year, I really wanna see all the Best Picture nominees in theaters–but, depending on the reviews, I might make a side trip into The Wolfman.
Well, it's Nicholas Sparks plus Amanda Seyfried has a likeability about her. I mean even minorities who were complaining about the VF cover said that they liked her.
I have no plans to see it, not my type of film.
I'm not sure it's a good idea to release any film on Superbowl weekend unless you are trying to run away from competition with a crappy film. I suppose Dear John will make up sunday's drop on President's Day, though.
If From Paris with Love comes in at less than my $9.6 million prediction, as seems likely, it means that not only did the movie itself bring in no business, but something about it was actually a turnoff. Probably the title.
Crazy Heart will probably continue to do well because word of mouth should be good. Much, much better than for An Education, for instance, which only really brought excellent acting to the table, and little else.
Dear John should continue to do well as it tells girls what they want to hear. I thought it was interesting that it tried to reach out to guys with much more on the military than I would have thought. I especially liked that it showed what Special Forces do, albeit for only one quick four second sequence. It should play well on military bases, though the tickets for military theaters usually only cost what second run theaters charge. In the setup of the movie, the dialog was a bit choppy and awkward. It would be interesting to ask the director if he did that on purpose to reflect the often awkwardness at the beginnings of many relationships. There was one annoying scene where Channing Tatum was having a heartfelt talk with Amanda Seyfried that was difficult to focus on because his military uniform shoulder boards were upside down. Oops! Overall, a pretty good movie, Brad. I don't think it would have sapped your morale. Then again, you're probably too old to believe in…SPOILER ALERT SPOILER ALERT SPOILER ALERT SPOILER ALERT…TRUE LOVE FOREVER!
Good for Channing Tatum's career that Dear John did well. A lot of people say he sucks or rather can't act but I Don't think he was him at all who turned G.I. Joe into a dissapointing movie. It was all of the side people (like the misplaced Wayans brother) and sometimes cartoony (the suit running) effects.
So there's a plus for him…
@Seiko: seriously ? i only watched stop loss, and he sucked pretty bad, lets face it he's no ryan gosling, and most people think he is the same in all his movies.
I think Avatar will still win the weekend by a mere .5 million.
Take this prediction;
1. Avatar – 26.7 Million
2. Dear John – 26.2 Million
3. From Paris with Love – 13 Million
4. Edge of Darkness – 12.5 Million
5. Crazy Heart – 11.9 Million
I will assume that Avatar will rose 100 % this coming Saturday and will only drop 40 % Sunday. On the Other hand, Dear John will drop stiffly on Saturday 33% and drop again 35% on Sunday.
Channing Tatum = Josh Harnett. Look-alikes with about the same look, same limited acting ability. Surprised to learn only two years difference, because Tatum is almost 30.
"But really, despite my little personal story at the opening of this article, who could have predicted such a massive number?"
I did, I did!!!! If it hits 30 mill, I better get a heck of a shout out tomorrow! I was the only one who predicted it could hit 30 mill! Knew it! :]!
If Dear John wins the weekend, wouldn't that just be the biggest slap to Avatar just after getting nine Oscar nominations? Methinks so.
If there is one lesson to be learned from this weekend it is that you should never underestimate the power of teenage girls.
@Chuck Bartowski: I was going to give you a shout out if Laremy didn't. I was also wondering if it is cricket to ask you how you arrived at your 30.1 million estimate. Myself, I assumed a $10,000 average PTA minus a 2/3 drop on Sunday.
@Seiko: All actors will always have people who can act better than them, at least in some way. I thought Channing did well in Dear John, though the script called for him to be the strong, silent type. I wonder if that was an accomodation for him, or if the book is like that. What's funny about your comment is that Channing Tatum is a goofball, not unlike many drama majors. I've seen him in video on vacation and video helping Miley Cyrus on a dance challenge. When you see him being all serious, even if you find that he's limited to that, you are seeing him act because he's nothing like that. I wonder if you would think he did a good job if he played in a screwball comedy, and just played himself. Everyone thinks Mel Gibson is a great actor, and I agree with that, but I had to pause when I saw in interviews that he really is a bit crazy, and some of his acting work was less of a stretch than I had imagined.
@Seiko: that's twice I did that this week. this comment was for @ddurden33:
The trailer, although thrusted and insisted upon us, made Tatum and Seyfried look like they can act. I'm not saying that Channing Tatum is DDL, but I'm rooting for him because he's a model actor and those only turn out well half the time.
My theory was that people just wanted to see something else. It takes eight weeks for everyone to have seen Avatar, and only morons will see that movie twice (no offense to anyone, haven't read the comments to see if people here did see it twice or not).
And Wolfman and Valentine's Day will be out next week, and those will be number one and number two respectively.