Filed under: Friday Estimates

'Christmas Carol' Takes Top Spot While 'The Box' Barely Makes Top Five at Friday Box-Office

Precious has a strong limited opening

Nikki Finke delivers the top six at this weekend's Friday box-office and I don't think there is any big surprises here. As a matter of fact, I will be more interested in seeing how films such as The Men Who Stare at Goats, The Fourth Kind and The Box do in their second weekends. But let's take this in order shall we?

Finke reports Disney's A Christmas Carol took in a modest $9 million on Friday, which Finke suspects will ultimately result in $35-40 million for the weekend. Laremy Legel, our Box-Office Oracle, was bullish in predicting a $44.2 million weekend and is probably kicking himself, but you can't blame him after taking theater counts and added 3-D revenue. I have heard the budget on this flick was $185 million, which is A TON, and now that Zemeckis has gone from Warner Bros., to Paramount/DreamWorks and now to Disney, I wonder who will be the next one to allow him to spend a bunch of money on a technology James Cameron appears to have perfected in his first try. I know he's supposed lining up a few projects, including a remake of the Beatles's The Yellow Submarine at Disney, but are studios going to continue to see this as a big budget viable option?

Coming in at #2 is the first of a group of thrillers this weekend as Universal's The Fourth Kind leads the way with an estimated $5 million. Laremy had it in fourth (oh, you see what he did there?), and while his placement is off, his $12.6 million prediction will likely be close.

Third is the George Clooney and Ewan McGregor harmless psychic war skit The Men Who Stare at Goats, which I presume is likely to enjoy a solid opening weekend due to what Laremy refers to as "an interesting trailer," but I bet it will only be enough for one go around. The film mustered $4.6 million on Friday and will likely settle in around $14 million for the weekend.

The other major wide release is Richard Kelly's The Box, which is far too involved for a one-time viewing and should really come with a Cliff's Notes handout prior to walking in. The film has some interesting things going on, but there are far too many of them for one sit down and considering there is enough of a story to make for what appears to be a simple tale on the surface it is likely to turn off opening weekend viewers to the point word-of-mouth will be dismal. The film managed a fifth place finish on Friday with only $2.85 million and will likely end up just shy of $8 million for the weekend. Not an impressive number for a studio effort, but this is hardly a film that should be made at a major. Kelly should stick with indie distribution where he can continue to let his imagination run wild as opposed to trying to satisfy the Hollywood fat cats.

Finally, the best film of the year so far is in limited release in 18 theaters and it's doing quite well. Precious: Based On The Novel "Push" By Sapphire managed $585,000 on Friday with a per theater average of $32,500, and a predicted $1.7 million weekend. As I pointed out in my weekend preview, the film will be expanding throughout the month so check the official site to see when it hits your city and read my review as a primer.

All of Finke's numbers for Friday are listed below. Come back tomorrow when Laremy will have the full weekend recap.

  1. A Christmas Carol – $9 million
  2. The Fourth Kind – $5 million
  3. The Men Who Star At Goats – $4.6 million
  4. Michael Jackson's This Is It – $4.1 million
  5. The Box – $2.85 million
  6. Paranormal Activity – $2.8 million

  • Precious: Based On The Novel "Push" By Sapphire – $585,000

Click Here to add an
Avatar to Your Account
Post #1
Gravatar

uh…since when is 2.8 more than 3?

- JAB
( November 7th, 2009 | 1:16 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #2
Gravatar

Oh my god. Precious can hit the top 12 and it hasn't even opened nationwide! Anyone want to change their #10 spot now?

- m1
( November 7th, 2009 | 1:17 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #3
Gravatar

JAB's right; the numbers I saw had Box as #5

- Dan Tralder
( November 7th, 2009 | 1:19 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #4
Gravatar

@JAB: Nice catch! Even I didn't notice that!

- m1
( November 7th, 2009 | 1:19 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #5
Gravatar

If "Precious" does make that prediction…wouldn't it have one of the best per-theater averages of all time? It'll make what "There Will Be Blood" did…in 9x as many theaters! That's incredible!

- Vince
( November 7th, 2009 | 2:44 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #6
Gravatar

Wait… that doesn't make sense.

At a per-screen average of 32.5k, approximately $10 a ticket, and approximately 4 showings per theater on a Friday, that still leaves an average of 800 people in attendance per screening…. can that many people fit in the average theater that shows Precious? Or am I underestimating the number of screenings?

- Dan Tralder
( November 7th, 2009 | 3:01 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #7
Gravatar

Well, A Christmas Carol costs $150M, and only will make about $33M this weekend. It is fail. Also, the sites i saw have The Box in top 5.

It is all about 2012 now, it will be the next fail of holiday season? I think not.

- John-PT
( November 7th, 2009 | 3:45 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #8
Gravatar

A Christmas Carol had a lot of things against it.

In the world of animation, comedy is king and A Christmas Carol is essentially a period drama.

A Christmas Carol may have come out too early, most of the other releases coincided with the halloween we just had.

Family movies usually perform badly on weekdays and fridays outside of school holidays as the kids are stuck in class and usually don't attend evening showtimes.

- Jezza
( November 7th, 2009 | 4:37 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #9
Gravatar

@Dan Tralder:
That should say $32.5k per theater, not per screen. A quick look at Fandango shows each of the 4 theaters in New York City showing this film has it on 2 screens with showings starting as early as 10am running through midnight or later for as many as 10-12 showings per 'theater' on Friday. That probably makes average attendance per screen more like 300 per show, a much more realistic number.

I just checked, one of the theaters in Georgia has in on 4 screens – 20 shows today.

- Matt B.
( November 7th, 2009 | 6:40 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #10
Gravatar

At $32,500 @ 18 theaters, Precious did very well, but A Serious Man by the Coen Brothers made $41,890 @ 6 theaters, peaking at 262 theaters and $4.9 million. I guess everbody is looking for the next breakout hit after Paranormal Activity. I personally would like to see An Education.

A Christmas Carol disappointed me. Although Jim Carrey is not my favorite actor, The Grinch opened at $55 million on Nov 17, 2000. Jezza could be right that this film was not perceived as a comedy, hurting it's chances.

This Is It broke new ground for a major concert film with only a 47% drop from last friday. Incredible for it's film category. It looks like it will break the record for highest US gross for a concert film without having the highest opening. I can only think that either MJ fans are old and slow to go to the box office, or the large number of online sites citing MJ's failure led to blogs not entirely nice to Michael, and a fan reaction has set in, causing fence siiters to see the movie and hardcore fans to see it twice. I don't know.

G.I. Joe has quietly made $300 million worldwide, and won't be a financial disaster for Paramount as many were expecting. Of course it opened at $54 million. Do you hear that A Christmas Carol?

Looks like I will be pretty close on the rest of my calls giving me 8/10 this weekend. I'll wait for the final numbers, though.

- mfan
( November 7th, 2009 | 7:28 pm )
Reply to this comment
Post #11
Gravatar

I knew "A Christmas Carol" wouldn't do so well. I mean, "Beowulf" also had ticket inflation from 3D and IMAX screens, and it was a well-known name in literature like "A Christmas Carol," but Beowulf still disappointed with only $27mil OW. I think people have cottoned on to Zemeckis and his 3D CGI infatuation. He'd do best to return to motion pictures because he isn't getting CGI animation right.

- JM
( November 7th, 2009 | 9:31 pm )
Reply to this comment
~ PLEASE NOTE ~
If, in any way, your comment is an attack on the author of this post or a previous commenter, your comment will be deleted without question.
Leave Your Feedback
(required)
(will not be shown) (required)
DON'T WANT YOUR COMMENT DELETED?
Click to Read Our Commenting Rules & Guidelines
Follow Us On Twitter!
RSS Email
Latest Posts
Latest Video
Nine ~ TV Spot
New Pictures
Friend RopeofSilicon on Netflix!