Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs only fell an estimated 18.8 percent, the 26th smallest drop of all time (of films that opened in at least 3000 theaters). Alert commenters JM and Nick both had Meatballs winning, but even they didn't have it cracking $20m. However, commenter Steve probably was most apt with his "Good weekend to get caught up on videos" take. It was the third worst weekend of the year, and the miserable financial September continues. Let's break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
It still needs another $190m before it can start thinking about profit, so they've got to be thrilled the film showed strength this weekend. It it wins again I promise I'll actually see it.
Result: 24.6 million (My rank: #, $m off)
It didn't do as well as I thought it would, and it certainly didn't do as well as the four people who called it to win thought it would. I think the issue was the "we've seen it before" factor. It looked like a Matrix, Minority Report, Fifth Element, Total Recall mash-up. Only without the innovation factor.
Result: 15.0 million (My rank: #2, $2.7m off)
Is this more of a referendum on lack of star power… or marketing? It was clear they didn't know what to do with this film. It didn't have the singular focus of Step Up (dancing) or High School Musical (bubble gum teens). The market punished it for being unapproachable.
Result: 10.0 million (My rank: #1, $8.6m off)
A $22m budget has been reported here. Which means it was worth a shot for Warner Bros., just on the off chance it came through.
Result: 6.9 million (My rank: #5, $1.1m off)
It still needs another $20m to catch Madea's Family Reunion for second all time on the Tyler Perry list. I would bet against, and clearly it has no chance at Madea Goes to Jail's $91m first place showing.
Result: 4.7 million (My rank: #6, $.4m off)
The lowest per theater average of any of the newcomers. Overture is still playing small ball, with only Righteous Kill breaking $40m in the last two years of their releases.
Result: 4.4 million (My rank: #4, $1.9m off)
The bottom six films didn't make as much as Meatballs. Top heavy and frontloaded, the new box office norms.
Result: 4.3 million (My rank: #7, $0.5m off)
That's a pretty nice prediction by me. It's been a long time since I've given myself a heartfelt compliment, but don't worry, I won't start now.
Result: 3.5 million (My rank: #8, $0.1m off)
It broke the top 100 animations of all time this weekend. Break out the bubbly!
Result: 2.8 million (My rank: #9, $0.3m off)
The other box office results you should know about? Capitalism: A Love Story made a weekend leading $60k per theater (in only four theaters). I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell could only muster $3k per theater, it will be interesting to see if it can build any momentum off that result.
Result: 2.7 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
How say you? Happy about Fame's demise? Pleased to see Cloudy hanging on? Missing legitimate films? Hit me up in the comments, and don't pull any punches.