Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs dominated, as per expected. Only three alert commenters had the film over $30m (Eli, The Checkspot, Anonymous Friend). I was a little low. Only two weekends were measurably worse this year, I'm sure I speak for us all when I say I can't wait for Oscar season to start. Bring on the real movies!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
I should have added a 15% 3-D bonus on my total. Then I would have been in the ballpark. Not much to say about this title, it just hit the demo hard (and without competition). Well played by Sony.
Result: 30.1 million (My rank: #1, $5.1m off)
They are projecting a punishing Sunday, the weekend went: $3.7 / $4.4 / $2.5m. I'm going to have to call this a miss, unless the budget was under $25m all in.
Result: 10.5 million (My rank: #3, $3.3m off)
The story of this weekend is another "cutie pie horror" swinging and missing. It seems as though you've got to go really hard at the genre or not bother at all. The days of
Scream have evidently passed.
Tyler Perry fell his usual 57 percent. This one pretty much was what we thought it was.
Result: 10.0 million (My rank: #4, $.4m off)
It did better than I would have thought, but not by much. The trick is to be the first bad romantic comedy out of the blocks in May or June. Once you hit September the audience has wised up again.
Result: 8.4 million (My rank: #5, $.8m off)
This is a pretty good example of "internet buzzy" vs. real life ticket sales. People wanted to see the pictures, discuss the film, talk about Megan Fox, watch the trailers… but they didn't want to buy a ticket. Alert commenter Martian Army was right – Megan Fox's first lead is a flop. She's been overexposed and the backlash is now in full effect.
Result: 6.8 million (My rank: #2, $9.4m off)
Back on track! 9 gained 400 theaters this weekend, but it still fell 49 percent. Regardless of the merits of the movie it was very oddly placed in this market.
Result: 5.4 million (My rank: #6, $1.1m off)
Continues to excel. And we can hope that the DVD treatment will be comprehensive. Don't make us wait for a special edition! Or perhaps we can start a petition to get Criterion involved?
Result: 3.6 million (My rank: #7, $0.3m off)
It didn't fall tremendously, but only because it was already close to zero. I'm sure there's a mathematical theorem in there somewhere.
Result: 3.4 million (My rank: #8, $0.3m off)
Notice what's not in the top ten? Whiteout. The old "delayed = damaged" theory holds again. Let's hope The Road isn't a case of that.
Result: 2.4 million (My rank: #10, $.1m off)
The budget was $40m and the film is near $100m worldwide. This will probably end up a moderate winner when the books are closed on it.
Result: 2.3 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
Your turn. Any Megan Fox theories, or just the difference between "nice to look at" vs. "a must-see movie star"? Did you see Informant! and catch how disparate the marketing was? Do you feel like defending Love Happens? Here's your chance, bring it.