Alert commenters JP and JM called it, Paranormal Activity was destined to make the top ten. But even they didn't see it cracking the top five with an astounding $7.1m in 159 theaters. That per theater average of $44k puts them only a thousand dollars per theater behind the monstrous Miley opening last year. It even beat Surrogates overall, even though it spotted them 2800 theaters. An amazing result, and it wasn't even the only one…
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
A throwback result for Universal, it pays to be the only game in town. I don't believe people will see "anything" because it's the weekend, but I do believe that having a solid marketing budget and known stars will help you for at least 72 hours.
Result: 35.3 million (My rank: #1, $11.3m off)
This October is around five percent ahead of last October, but there isn't a title to compete with High School Musical 3 near the tail end of the month. This Is It doesn't drop until October 30, so it won't have enough time to make an impact.
Result: 15.0 million (My rank: #2, $2.1m off)
I know I've commented on this before, but I don't get where the money was spent. Voiceover talent? Computers are getting cheaper and cheaper, why does it cost Sony $100m to make this film? Is it just studio overhead, assistants and leased company cars?
Result: 12.0 million (My rank: #3, $0.9m off)
I'm very quietly four for four. But all that ends starting with the next title.
Result: 7.7 million (My rank: #4, $0.1m off)
They used an almost forgotten Hollywood method: enforcing scarcity. People complained "Why aren't they releasing it wide?" But Paramount made you want the product, got you passionate about it, and all without dropping huge amounts on marketing. Well played on their part, it's the kind of thing you can do when you don't need to rip off as many people as possible in as short a time as possible.
Result: 7.1 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
"Where's the money Lebowski??" — remember that scene with Jeff Bridges? That's what I imagine folks are asking Jonathan Mostow this morning. Still, it could do well internationally.
Result: 4.1 million (My rank: #5, $.2m off)
Only one film fell more than 50 percent this weekend, you're looking at it. Word of mouth couldn't have been kind. That's the one thing marketers haven't figured out how to control yet, though Lord knows they've tried.
Result: 3.4 million (My rank: #6, $.3m off)
Drew Barrymore hosted SNL last night. That just seems mean since the film has been out for ten days already.
Result: 2.8 million (My rank: #7, $.3m off)
I'd hoped a conversation would start around this title, regardless of the source. But clearly it's not gonna happen as three wide releases hit next weekend, flushing the bottom feeders right out.
Result: 2.7 million (My rank: #8, $.2m off)
$10m, $5m, $2.6m, and then on to DVD. That's how they do it these days. I don't think it's sustainable, but then again I'm just a fella with a spreadsheet.
Result: 2.6 million (My rank: #9, $.2m off)
Did we learn any lessons this weekend? One of the theories presented in the comments (Do Critics Matter?) I've done extensive research on and I'm pleased to tell you the answer is "usually and probably." It didn't happen this weekend, but "good" films tend to be "good" films for everyone. Now then, do they do well financially because critics say they are good, or because they are actually just good? That's a hard web to untangle, and not one I feel comfortable passing judgment on. But the one out of every ten occasions where a film gets terrible reviews and still banks is a "black swan" — IE an event you remember but not the norm. Of course then CNN runs their quarterly "people don't listen to critics!" piece and we're off and running on what's actually a rather complicated debate.
But I digress. Weigh in with comments… before it's too late!
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