While I didn't make official predictions, I was very surprised to see everyone predicting that it would make over 30 mill in the weekend. I mean, sure there are tons of MJ 'fans', and everyone is quick to hop on the mourning bandwagon, but when it comes to shelling out $10 to see some concert footage, only the REAL fans come out (not me). So overall, I'm not surprised to see the turnout, I probably would have predicted around 26/27 mill. Laremy did a pretty good job this week overall though!

Well I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. After those medicore weekday numbers I knew the possibility of reaching 40mill was unlikely especially during Halloween weekend. I'm glad I only had it at 26mill for the weekend, but even that was too high.

This is It was a epic fail on US, but internationally it was a hit. Still, i am shocked with the result of This is It. Paranormal Activity is a great hit, but i am worried with a decision of making a sequel, i think that is a mistake. Saw 6 and Where the Wild Things Are are two big misses, unfortunely for their studios. Early next weekend predicition: A Christmas Carol wins with $38M, while The Box could crack $20M and The Fourth Kind and The Man Who Stare at Goats will have a result around $8M.

Miley still has it! The Queen of Tween beats the King of Pop. Laremy once wrote "Hannah Montana is bigger than the Beatles." He may have been being facetious, but it looks like Hannah Montana is at least bigger than the King of Pop. And because Laremy would rather go down with the King of Pop than teen fare, it proved his undoing. Miley has charted 30 hits on Billboards Hot 100 and she's only been singing for three years! Her song, Party in the USA, is currently #1 on the Top 40 chart. Not to upset Michael fans, but Miley is it!

(Miley still has it, Hannah Montana is bigger than the Beatles, rather go down with fast cars than teen fare, it proved to be my undoing: these are all Laremy quotes re Miley. See Laremy, we're paying attention!)

It will actually be interesting to see what happens with DVD sales. Hannah Montana: The Movie is looking to be $50+ million with just under 3 million units. Will Michael be able to sell 3-6 million units? (6.5 million MJ CD's sold after his death) If Sony is smart, they'll make it more expensive since MJ fans have more money, and are more hardcore, being the last remnant of his fanbase.

Let's give Laremy partial credit. He originally thought $50 million was too high. I don't know why he changed his mind, but please don't tell me it was the pre-sales hype.

I don't see The Box coming close to 20mill opening weekend, but maybe domestically it will have a chance.

My Prediction:

A Christmas Carol – 30
The Men Who Stare at Goats – 11
The Fourth Kind – 7
The Box -6

"Why do we ever believe what the studios say?"

Anyone who actually thought 'This is It' was only going to be in theaters for two weeks needs to have their head examined.

My belief in the studios credibility ended when Disney extended Toy Story(s) 3D. If you can't even trust Disney then forget about it. I actually thought Sony might stick to two weeks, though. If This Is It follows the Best OF Both Worlds path, it could make just over $50 million, so extending it makes sense. If This Is It follows the Jonas Brothers path, it's going to be really embarassing for Michaels legacy. But the Vultures don't care about that. They should have waited for Monday of Tuesday to see what the drop will be (steep!), but maybe they already have an agreement with the theaters.

Next week:

The Fourth Kind (20)
A Christmas Carol (18)
This is It (15)
Paranormal Activity (14)
The Box (9)
Couples Retreat (5)
Where the Wild Things Are (3.5)
Astro Boy (2.8)
Saw IV (2.1)
A Serious Man (1.5)
An Education (1)

For next weekend:

1) A Christmas Carol- $35 million
2) The Box- $12 million
3) Paranormal Activity- $10 million
4) This Is It- $9 million
5) Men Who Stare At Goats- $8.5 million

My new 'build it and they will come' philosophy got a major boost this weekend as they didn't build it, and no one came. This was the lowest grossing weekend of the year.

One good thing for Michael fans in all the hype. It enabled This Is It to open #1. That's good for fans bragging rights.

Geez, "This Is It" didn't even unseat "UP" which was going into its' 4th weekend in the UK.

For next week (early prediction)

A Christmas Carol= 48mil. Will wait to see ticket sales and and buzz as the week goes, but the 3D aspect alone should get this well north of 40mil.

@m1: Law Abiding Citizen will earn 6 million.

@m1: The Men who Stare at Goats will make 4 million.

This is what I said on another site:

"This is It" is not a once-in-a-lifetime event. It's just a documentary/concert movie. Sony wanted us to believe that this was monumental, "The Dark Knight" of concert films. But it's not. Ultimately, this was a fans-only type thing. Older fans don't seem to want to go to the movies all that often unless THEY believe that it's an event (not just that someone is telling them to believe this).

Not surprising that this film quote-unquote "underperformed" but it only underperformed next to monumental expectations.

A Christmas Carol: Too scary for kids, too kiddy for adults – 27M
Paranormal Activity : Still a decent film – 14.5M (will crack 100M domestically)
This Is It : Will not crash – 14.5M
The Men Who Stare at Goats – No Comment – 13.1M
The Box – Cool Uncool – 9.8M
The Fourth Kind – Unkind – 7.1M

It looks like both Paul Weitz and Chris Weitz have each directed a potential fantasy franchise into the ground. Congrats. At least "The Golden Compass" did well overseas. It might have gotten a sequel had the economy been better and had the first not cost so much. The same cannot be said about "Cirque du Freak"

Damnit… no credit for my 19.1 prediction for This Is It, because once I saw Laremy's numbers, I ran scared. No need to believe me, but maybe now I'll start posting

@mfan: I mean this in the nicest way possible but to say Hanna Montana is bigger then Michael Jackson is one of the dumbest comments I've ever heard.
Yes the numbers indicate that This Is It got its ass kicked by the HM concert movie… in the states but with $101 million worldwide it topped the Hanna Montana movie by more then $30 million within 5 days!
Also look at these numbers "Most Successful Entertainer of All Time"—13 Grammy Awards, 22 American Music Awards (20 only as a solo artist, including one for "artist of the century"), 17 number one singles (including the four as a member of the Jackson 5), and estimated sales between 350 million and 750 million records worldwide.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Jackson)
Personally after Thriller, Jackson went downhill but there is no way in hell that the kid of the Ackie Breakie Heart dude is bugger then Michael Jackson EVER!

Not surprised MJ didn't do that well. The next movies that are going to make any real money opening weekend are going to be 2012 and New Moon. Christmas Carol will open around the mid 20's to low 30's.

Um, aren't you guys overexaggerating a bit, this was a big hit WW. WTF.

* bigger

I just read that an Oscar voter is predicting that "This Is It" will be nominated for Best Picture this year, based on an Academy screening for it today. Said it was most enthusiastic applause he'd seen in 40 years of Academy screenings, and even more than the applause for "Chicago" a few years back.

The story is right here.

Shocking number for This Is It. I'm still trying to figure out why it was more successful during the week than it was on the weekend. The reviews were certainily good enough to get people into the theater, maybe very early word of mouth wasn't that strong.

I was really shocked by the numbers for the Michael Jackson film; however, let's face facts people: for most of the "18 and under crowd" MJ was merely an important part of Music and Video history and a giant misunderstood (creepy in many circles) celebrity.

Still, for a film that was hastily put together (more of a steller DVD extra instead of an actual movie) and which features the King of Pop only in rehearsals (and not even dress rehearsals at that), I think a $20 million+ opening weekend and a International gross of over $100 million is more than any studio could have dreamed of.

@John Debono:

Completely agreed. The very idea of even comparing Miley Cyrus and Michael Jackson, linked by the performance of a pair of concert movies is brainless and baffling. If one were to use that "Miley is better" logic, let alone put their names in the same sentence by comparison, in front of certain music fans or people in the industry, they would mockingly get laughed out of a room, IF NOT punched in the face numerous amount of times.

I'm not an MJ die-hard fan, I'm just as much a fan of MJ as the next guy (and not a hypocrite, since in the past, I'll admit, have shamefully laughed at tasteless jokes at his expense). I haven't even seen This Is It yet but am surprised that number wasn't at least over $35m.

So what the fuck is up with this recent surge of Miley tween adulation over the past weeks when 75% of it hasn't even been relevant to Laremy's articles. I'm sorry but people insinuating that Miley is "bigger" than MJ are insulting his memory and might as well piss on his grave.

Early Predictions: Carol at $33m, Goats at $12m, The Box at $9m, The Fourth Kind at $5m.

@Topy: The trouble with ALL concert films is that they are either great (subjectively), or a waste of time. For example, I have a Santana concert DVD. You could say it's pretty good, you could appreciate it for it's musicianship, but old Nu Shooz video is ten times as good. That's why only fans will see Sony's film. The only question is whether the film will drop by two thirds or five sixths. Maybe it could hold better and break new ground, but if it was "different", we would know it by now.

@John Debono: @Eli: Bless your hearts, but I know all the Michael stats. Now let me give you one. Miley is 16 years old. Older than Michael, when Michael started with the Jackson 5, but still very young. Michael died when he was 50 years old. "By the time Miley is 50 years old, her legacy will be much bigger than Michaels. Already, she is the first artist since Elvis that is very successful in both movies and music. The only reason, it turns out, that Michael will beat Miley's worldwide gross, is because Miley had only been singing professionally for ONE year at the time of her BOBW tour, and was not known internationally yet. Talk about an American Idol !!!

!

@mfan: Yeah cause Will Smith, Cher (God I can't believe I'm using her as an example) and Tom Waits have had miserable careers as actors and musicians?
Also if I'm not mistaken while its impressive that she starred in a couple of films, two of which are based on Hanna Montana franchise and another one is a voice in a disney taking dog movie. I'm not trying to belittle that but the girl has yet to be successful without the assistance of the Mickey Mouse club marketing machine. I mean anyone remember Hilary Duff after she wanted to take more adult roles?
I'm sorry if I'm coming off as mean or insulting, if your a fan go for it. I just have no where the basis for your argument. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly admit it but comparing a legend to what is at this a point a fad that doesn't have any proven longevity is just ridiculous.

@John Debono: Probably nothing will convince you about Miley but time. I'm not talking about being near the top of your music game while doing some respectabel movies. I'm not talking about being at the top of the movie game and putting out a few raps. I'm talking about beiing at the top of the music industry and at the same time being at the top of the movie industry. Elvis' movies were often the top grossing movies of the year, and we know how he did on the charts. People loved him and supported his efforts. In today's more fragmented market, we won't see that again, but we are seeing something similar, on a smaller scale with Miley. People are supporting her clothing line. At first there were sell outs of some of the items. Her clothing line has zero to do with Disney. She has three movies in development, although at least two of them will be associated w/Disney in some way. I won't mention her unless it's germane to the discussion, but I hope you can get used to hearing about her in the world, because it's not going to stop. Peace and Love.

@mfan: Correction, it was the second slowest weekend of the year.

I can't resist one final comment. While I realize Michael was set to do 50 dates at the O2 arena in London over a nine month period, Miley has 5 dates at the O2 arena sold out in her mini 11 date, 17 day tour of Britain that includes a break for Xmas. I'm know she wanted to tour Europe if she could, but she has to start filming her Hannah Montana show, which was the 3rd highest rated show on cable the last time there was an original episode. And that includes sports and wrestling.

@John Debono: The Hannah Montana concert played at as many 3D capable theaters as it could. I believe at the time it was less than 700 in America, and far fewer overseas. People often speak of the inflated 3D ticket prices but fail to mention the limit 3D put on the number of theaters, especially overseas.

a christmas carol-$50.6-its a christmas movie
the fourth kind-$30.8-scary lookin
the men who stare at goats-$25.6-really good lookin movie
the box-$20.9
paranormal activity-$12.2-scary movie
mj this is it-$11.5-show your support for mj

Does anyone think the, according to Box Office Mojo, 5,500 screens were part of 'This Is It's problem? Usually, the more screens the better, but if you go into a theater and it's pretty empty, you're losing some of the movie theater experience. And the exitement level of the film is less, maybe.

There are 3 levels for a movie on whether it will do well overseas. Level 1 is no box office draws/not a franchise or cartoon: Very low overseas potential. Level 2 is star power or franchise that is known overseas, especially europe: These films will generally make the same overseas as in the U.S. which is impressive for an american film. Level 3 is star power or franchise known Worldwide: Will Smith and Brad Pitt are on this list and will propel a film to TWICE its U.S. gross. Michael Jackson is on this list of stars known throughout the world. So far, it's a mistake to say “This Is It” is more popular overseas. In fact, since it doubled it’s U.S. gross overseas, it has the same popularity as here, though the final numbers might change that conclusion. Make of that what you will.

Side note: Transformers ROTF not only destroyed everything in it's path at theaters, but it's doing the same for DVD releases as the sales of every other recent title dropped hard in it's wake.

@The Jackal: Sony must have dreamed of it because they need $300 million to break even, but aren't going to get it.