next weekend
1. 2012-$75
2. christmas carol-$20
3. this is it-$10
4. men who stare at goats-$8
5. paranormal activity-$7
6. the fourth kind-$6
7. couples retreat-$5
8. law abiding citizen-$5
9. pirate radio-$4
10. the box-$4
11. Where the wild things are-$3

Well, New Moon will gross over $100, so add it to that list you have of hopefuls.
The last time a Harry Potter film was released this time of year it cleared $100 million on it's opening weekend, didnt it? It's unfortunate, but that's probably the biggest release left this year.
2012 won't make more than $45 million it's opening weekend,
Avatar might crack $60, Sherlock will get $40 or so, and i think New Moon gets $80 easily.

Disappointing weekend indeed. I had a feeling that Christmas Carol might even clear $50mil mark. But then the low Friday numbers really surprised me. 2009 has been way below the mark with biggies like HP6, Transformers2, Terminator4 and X-Men really under-performing. Both 2012 and Sherlock Holmes should perform well. As for Avatar, the movie just CANNOT FAIL. In my opinion, its theatrical trailer was THE FINEST i have ever seen. My early calls for it… if the movie is bad, it will make $1 Billion worldwide. If the movie is good,which i m sure it will be, in that case it will definitely overtake the worldwide gross of LOTR:ROTK.

I agree with you Laremy, let´s pray that 2012 (i have a lot of doubts about this one), Avatar, New Moon, Sherlock Holmes and Old Dogs could give a strong holiday season. A Christmas Carol and The Box were a disapointing. The other two wide releases also have solid wins, but not greats. Let´s hope next weekend the major opening could crack $50M.

Next weekend early predictions: 2012 have just 3000 theaters. I was expecting something in the house of 3500 theaters. My prediction goes to a $50M opening. Pirate Radio have 900 theaters, so i predict a $5M opening.

@Athar: Whether or not it overtakes Titanic remains to be seen.

Hey! I had This Is It finishing second, to the tune of 13.7 mil. Of course, I was way off on Goats, so not a resounding victory, but my post did have This Is It pegged for place and income

Yay for Precious, that's AMAZING! And for such a supposedly "graphic" and "uncommercial" film to boot!

Damn "Couples Retreat" with that less-than-one-percent drop from last week. Apparently did affect the releases from last week, since "Wild Things", "Astro Boy" and "This is It" stabilized from weak performances last time. But only "This is It" can really be considered a hit.

Next week, "2012" will hit $45 million. It'll certainly do better than "10,000 BC" at least for the first weekend, because people are usually drawn to these disaster epics, especially if they take place in America. However, I hear the movie is one of the worst of the year, veering into "so-bad-it's-good" territory, so that'll definitely hurt its chances in the long run, especially with "New Moon" and other juggernauts opening soon after.

@Vince:

Sorry, that line should've read "Damn, good job "Couples Retreat…Apparently Halloween did affect the releases from last week…" and so on.

@Jezza: I have no opinion of 2012's final gross, but in an earlier post you were asking what was the big deal with 2012? For a couple of months, now, it's had HUGE search volume on the internet. Awareness of this movie is high, and disaster films are usually a good bet. $52 million would be a good call, but I'm going with $62 million, matching the per theater average of the Fast and the Furious.

Laremy, Third times a charm :) 2012 will definitely Bank!!! Also, we love you man, but I wouldn't count my The Fourth Kind chickens just yet. I had it at $12.3 million, and you had it at $12.6. Only the actuals will decide the matter, but we'll call it a win for you if you need it. This IS your site.

@Jezza: I wont say overtaking Titanic is impossible. But then we also need to consider the Piracy factor. Agreed that those who want to get the REAL experience will go to the theaters to catch it. But then will they go back for a second or third viewing when they know that they can easily get an illegal dvd or could download it themselves. I know its Sad, but then its the Truth. Still, I wont say that Titanic's record cant be broken. As i have said before, the only man who can beat James Cameron is James Cameron himself. Lets hope the movie makes 2009 a memorable one.

Hey Leremy,

I'm interested, what's the website you write reviews for? I wouldn't mind reading Bran adn your reviews before going to check out a movie. I think you both are awesome critics!

Thanks.

Precious was brilliant, and the theater was jam-packed. Not surprised to hear about its box-office triumphs.

I need to see this movie to see if john cusack survives. You see, in case he does, he needs to be added to the "apocalypse survivor list"…this so far includes will smith, nicolas cage, kevin costner, and keanu reeves. In case of apocalypse, hang out with these guys.

(1. 2012-$45)
2. A Christ. Carol-$25*
3. This is It-$10
4. Men Who Stare at Goats-$7.5
5. The Fourth Kind- $7
6. The Box-$6.3
7. Paranormal Activity-$6
(8. Pirate Radio-$5.9)
9. Law Abiding Citizen-$4.2
10. Where the Wild Things Are-$3

*highest weekly average for next week (the movie which opened the week before to see how much it held up).

()new releases

@Vince: 2012 better be better than Knowing. But I think $60+ is too high.

Wow! another weekend of low balling and I knock another one out of the park. But, even I'm a little suprised ACC didn't come close to my 34M prediction. Disney is going to be in some serious trouble if it doesn't have some solid legs. With a 200mill budget it needs to make as much as possible, but those expecting PE type of numbers are being way too optimistic imo. From what I hear it's not nearly as good and it's way to dark for kids. Maybe 120 Domestic, but nowhere near the numbers of PE. As for 2012 I think things are looking very good for it. Not many movies dropped less than 30% this weekend and that's usually a clear sign that people are in the mood for an event pic and 2012 fits that bill perfectly. I'm going to say 67M opening weekend and 170M domestic. With international grosses it should be a modest profit for Sony.

(Sidenote) Laremy how can you forget about New Moon ? It's going to make atleast 100M opening weekend based on those huge advance ticket sales (it's been selling out showings since September). No matter how much you hate Twilight you shouldn't understimate it's enourmous B.O potential.

I'm seeing "Precious" as soon as it's playing near me. And I'm looking forward to "2012" opening strong–at least $50mil, but it could easily clear $60mil, or maybe even beat QOS's $69mil from the same time frame last year.

Then comes "New Moon" next week. That's going to be worth at least $75mil, though I'm guessing closer to $80mil.

@wrongturn687: I didn't realize that advance tickets count towards a weekend box office opening.

Say what you wan't m1, but you just wait and see. NM is going to be huge whether you like it or not. I hate Twilight with a passion, but even I can't ignore the amount of ridicoulous hype surrouding it. No matter where you go on the net threre are always promos for it and selloust have been reported for weeks.

My Prediction:

20mill from Midnight Shows
57mill Friday
33mill Saturday
20mill Sunday
Yeah I know these are huge dropoffs, but just like the last movie it will be a one week wonder and then fade by the time December rolls around.

@adu: Thanks Adu. I write for film.com as well.

Will Paranormal Activity ever go away? Answer; no.

2012 – $39 calling it.
If movies people really act like they care about (i.e. This Is It) cant even make over 60 million opening weekend, there is not way a movie like 2012 will do it.

@wrongturn687: My conclusion after watching Twilight was that girls must be starved for romance. Any at all, apparantly. Still, as you say, how can anyone ignore Twilight's numbers? $191 million U.S., $192 million overseas, $165 million DVD, that's $550 million for a $37 million dollar film! I keep hearing how profitabe Paranormal Activity is going to be, but apparantly vampire heart thobs beat it. Twilight opened at $69 million at the same time last year, and I haven't seen any slowdown in it's fandom. In fact, it seems to have become an instant institution a la Harry Potter except mostly for girls.

Also, Transformer ROTF managed a 26% domestic box office increse with a 55% opening weekend increase. So, theoretically, New Moon could reach a 57 million opening weekend with very strong wednesday and thursday sales. I don't see why they wouldn't release it on wednesday as that strategy often seems to help overall sales.

Of course more than 9 million people bought Twilight's DVD. If they all show up for the opening, that's nearly $90 million right there. What I'm saying is wrongturn687's numbers, though they seem very high, are in the realm of possibility. Twilight is killing it at kid's and teen awards shows. If I obsessed enough to write three posts about it, imagine what the actual fans of the series are like.

I was sure way off with Christmas Carol (20mil off). I'm expecting decent legs though and will finish with 175mil domestic.

As for next week, I just don't see 2012 opening north of 70mil like some people are saying. It could do so, but I'm not sold it will. I think the high end will be akin to what The Day after Tomorrow did when it opened with 68mil Fri-Sun over Memorial Weekend years ago (85mil with the Monday holiday).

My early guess is 2012 gets around 62.5mil Fri-Sun.

@BR: You're on the right track. But I say $45 million.

@Laremy: Actuals for The Fourth Kind came in at $12,231,160. I was off by only $69 thousand! Am I now, officially, your most annoying commenter? I'm not trying to be.

@mfan: Nah, not by a long shot. Anyone moderately annoying just gets banned.

@laremy: O.K. I'm slow, but I get there. You had The Fourth Kind in it's correct spot in fourth place; I had it in third. I was focusing more on the $$$.

I'm betting 2012 at well over $100M international gross by Monday morning, over $65M domestically. Many people seem to be into the "end of the world" genre, and its been long awaited for well over a year. The telecast last month was exposed to 100 million Americans alone; of them probably some 20M may see it. 2012 is one of the most popular searches on the internet. We'll see how it banks.

@ApplesZo: 2012 @ 65M today, number 1. I called it.