I can't help but think you've contradicted yourself by saying this isn't a referendum of pop culture all while saying it has tapped into something. Granted you use the word "elemental" to side step this, because what it's tapped into is a moment in pop culture and an underfed market (that's the "thing" you are looking for) and it has done so successfully. No one is arguing that point and as for it "coming to life in a compelling way," well, that's a matter of opinion that is up for debate. Also, like Transformers 2 and G.I. Joe, people did have low expectations for this one as well and it either exceeded or lived up to those expectations.

Laremy, fantastic write-up on New Moon. Didn't read the books or like the first movie but found a lot to like in the picture. It will be interesting to see the feedback.

I personally thought the film follwed the book fairly well, unlike say…Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince, and as a reader this pleases me. Now, the book was somewhat slow throughout, with little action scenes here and there, and that is how the movie was, which is god because it sets up the Eclipse better. I am excited to see the 3rd film next June and expect the same crazy numbers, if not higher for Eclipse.

I will say that my favorite part of New Moon was the fact that we got to see more of Taylor and less of Robert, who is a horrible actor. Taylor shows some promise. Jacob is just a more interesting character. But kudos to New Moon and The Blind Side for doing well this weekend. They both deserved it.

New Moon was gigantic, it was almost impossible saw this coming. I thnik the teenagers didn´t want to miss the premiere. It is still very big, bigger then Pirates of the Carribean. The Blind Side was very good too. Guys at Warner must be happy. Sony is happy too, because international results of 2012 have been huge, and by tomorrow they must have a $400M worldwide result.

Next Weekend: New Moon wins again, with $50M.

Its certainly an interesting way to look at it but I think its too soon to really do an analysis of Twilight considering these records seem to be topped every year and there is so sign of longevity from the massive drop after a record Friday. I'm not saying there is no cultural impact there but you have to wait to see if it just becomes the teenaged girl's Transformers or if there is something more there.

@Brad Brevet: I just think the lessons of the box-office are almost always more complex than people would like to believe. When something fails we call it "a failure" (myself included) and when something earns cash that we don't like we attempt to rationalize it (myself included).

But generally speaking, things make money for a reason, and those reasons don't always have to be the same (because they are good, or meeting low expectations, or the market is starved). In this case I think the film is making money because the specific fan group likes it, based upon a book, which isn't something we've seen much before. Harry Potter crossed over rather easily (to non-readers) but Twilight remains polarizing between those who have read the books… and those who haven't. Which makes it different, and somewhat interesting to ponder.

I think that what these numbers really show is that there is a lot of fans of the series that were incredibly eager for the movie. The people I know who have read the series were disappointed with the first film, but have enjoyed this one much more. I think that's what the makers of the film were trying to achieve. I doubt it was Summit's aim to expand the appeal of the film to one that will please critics everywhere. At the end of the day, fan reception means much more to them than critics' opinions do.
It is a very faithful adaption of the book, which is why I enjoyed it, and I would much rather watch a movie that the fans will enjoy than one that is made to please people who already dislike or are indifferent to the series.

What this shows is that hollywood has to take the young women's demographic seriously, for years it's catered to teenage boys. Girls will show up in full force when properly marketed, (even though I'm sure the movie sucked).

@Laremy: I think what would be more interesting is how Twilight and its sequel would have performed without the books. Would these films still have been able to connect to its target audience without Stephenie Meyer's Cliffs Notes?

Personally I think films such as Transformers, G.I. Joe, Spider-Man and Batman would have. I'm not sure if this is a discussion that has any room to go, but I think it's an interesting question – even if it is entirely unanswerable.

@Tim: Agreed.

Yeah, without the books I don't see any chance these films bank.

@Laremy: I have to side with Brad…

Laremy, are you saying that this reason "that we haven't seen before" is a polarization between fans and non-fans? Hardly.

Or are you saying that the reason is that it comes from a book? Or is your previously-undiscovered, box-office-shattering reason the intersection between the two?

It seems like you are making a referendum on pop culture, regardless.

@Dan Tralder: Oh, wow, I was a little behind the ball on that one. Sorry, I wrote that before you guys re-posted.

Without tring to sound like the preacher during the apocolypse, people shouldn't act surprised by Twilights success.

After years of creating "boys only" fantasy and sci-fi with princess's in bikini's and skin tight space suits, when only one fantasy outlet is offered for femeales, they're going to bliddy jump on it.

We just witnessed the sheer power of a female audience we've been neglecting.

Think of Taken, when Liam Neeson finds his daughters kidnappers, than add more Estrogen, and more naked men.

1.Old Dogs-$87.3 (N/A)
2.New Moon-$70.4* (-50%)
3.Precious-$14 (+21%)
4.Fantastic Mr. Fox-$12.5 (+6,479%)
5.2012-$23.7 (-11%)
6.Ninja Assassin-$8.5 (N/A)
7.A Christ Carol-$8.3 (-35%)
8.Planet 51-$6.3 (-50%)
9.The Road-$5.2 (N/A)
10.Men Who Stare at Goats-$1 (-63%)

@m1: I really hope that Old Dogs number is a joke.

Yes, teenage girls are an untapped market. After all, without them, would Titanic have made $600M domestic?

I mentioned it in another post, but this is just a phenomenon I don't "get." And it is tougher to accept that there is a pop culture phenomenon this huge that I have no interest in being a part of. I sat down and read bits and pieces of my wife's copies of the books and I just don't enjoy it. It's written more like fan fiction than compelling literature. But to each their own. As I get older, I'm starting to appreciate that taste is taste and it's different for everyone. (I still won't accept the positive reviews for Transformers 2. Just can't do it.)

And who would've thought that 2009 would be the year of Sandra Bullock. Two $30+ openings after years of none. Wow.

Next week, I see New Moon winning the weekend (3-day) with $60M and Old Dogs pulling second with $32M. Movie theaters are going to be crowded next weekend, and nothing good is really coming out. I'll probably see Fantastic Mr. Fox.

While I hate to say I told you so I told you guys that NM would gross in the triple digits. But holy crap I didn't even think it will be this huge. 140M for a mostly female driven pic is pretty damn impressive whether you hate Twilight or not. But, the big question now is how will hold up next week now that all the fans have seen this weekend ? Also could it do 300M domestic ?

1. Fantastic Mr. Fox
2. Old Dogs
3. 2012
4. Twilight: New Moon
5. The Blind Side
6. Ninja Assassin
7. Precious
8. A Christmas Carol
9. Planet 51
10. The Men Who Stare at Goats

@Gregory: You jest, sir

uhm my opinion new moon is and actual is crap same as twlight
the only reason it grossed is because dumb tweens only look for looks and it seems robert patinson and taylor lautner have yet no acting skills what so ever the trees did better acting in the movies

@The Check Spot:
ninja assassin doesnt look that bad the dude who is directing that did v for vendetta and that was just plain great

New Moon is going to drop fast!!! All the tweens saw it the first week and about 1/4 of them will see it next. See The Dark Knight kept bringing in cash after weeks because it had great reviews and word spread. New Moon now, doesn't have great reviews, so it will die off quickly

New Moon will crash and burn because of negative word of mouth. 2012 will have legs.

@The Check Spot: Titanic would have still made $600 million. If ajusted for inflation, most of the top movies were female driven (Gone with Wind, 10 Commandents, Sound of Music and Titanic).

Fantastic mr fox next weekend is the one film I'm pulling for to surprise with a per-screen average.

I feel like the only person psyched for ninja assassin. Is the title too vague?

Thanksgiving weekend is a tough one to predict. I forgot that when last week I said new moon would plummet 65 percent. Now 50 seems feasible. 2012 falling like 15 seems right. Hopefully christmas carol gets a good thanksgiving bump, for robert zemeckis' sake.

Laremy, while I respect your comments that "when a film makes this much, it must have tapped into something elemental," I don't think that ideal applies to this film. This movie has made money simply due to the popularity of the novel. I'm not sure I know anyone who hasn't read the books, but saw the New Moon trailer and said, "I have to see that movie on opening weekend". The fact of the matter is that people are seeing this movie because of their love for the novel.

My new 'build it and they will come' philosophy continues to be
confirmed with this best weekend gross of the year.

Twilight
What impresses me about Twilight is not the books or the movies, but
the ardent fan following. I don't get it, but it IS impressive!

The Blind Side
It's nice to back a winner, but only commenter JAB guessed it might
beat 2012 for second place. My guess is this movie will do well the
entire holiday season, easily passing $100 million. Laremy opined,
once, that Hollywood would be forced to cut budgets in the future to
make up for the reality of declining DVD sales and rental revenue.
But many people going to the movies WANT to be impressed. One way to
impress them is to make movies people actually want to see. Are we
going to see an end to Hollywood self-indulgence, and a return to
mainstream sensabilities? Thinking back, perhaps we've already seen
the beginnings of this trend. I highly recommend this movie.

2012
I thought no competition would equal an exceptional hold, but there
were actually more guys in the theater during my matinee screening of
The Blind Side than there were women, including two father/son teams.
TBS is looking like a date movie too.

Precious
Despite it's early numbers, it's hard to believe this movie can make
more money than Crash.($54m) In fact, the same girl who insisted I
watch her DVD of Crash, just told me she was going to see Precious.

Planet 51
I thought this movie could take over from A Christmas Carol. Is kids
who have to be taken to the movies by their parents, one area of the
box office where there is normally a hard ceiling on total gross? In
other words, did ACC and P51 split the kids money or has ACC had a
normal drop, and P51 had a normal miss?

Update on New Moon
Guys, I think we have seriously underestimated the female audience. People dissing this film keep calling it driven by kids or teens. They were definitely there, but there were also a LOT of older women! And the vast majority of the older women brought a guy! The only group not represented were teen and younger guys, meaning there were none at all. Still, this is looking more like a three quadrant movie. If the publishers have been busy expanding the market with translations of the books to other languages, the top grossing films could have trouble holding their own.

I don't think anyone really thought G.I. Joe was that good at all. I could be wrong but amazon's got three stars for it which pretty much means average. Also the box office numbers were not super great by any stretch.

And I think Titanic would've still made as much as it did because everyone saw Titanic, including kids, woman in their 30's, others were curious to see why it was so great, boys who find kate Winslet hot, girls who find Leonardo attractive. etc. It had extreme appeal that for some reason, after more than a decade, nobody remembers and/or gets.

Having low expectations for Spider-Man 3 makes perfect sense because Spider Man 2 wasn't very good and Spider-Man was average.

@gobeatbox!: Vague – Nice!

"The film was excellent for those who read and enjoyed the books. It wasn't fun for anyone that hadn't."

Just because New Moon worked for people who enjoyed the novel, doesn't mean that the overwhelming shortcomings of the film don't exist. That's like saying Britney Spears and Lady GaGa are quality vocalists just because their fans enjoy them and think so.

You can't decry opinion toward the movie just because certain demographics enjoyed it. That same logic applies for movies like Transformers and 2012, but for some reason goes out the door because it was based on a novel that people enjoyed.

edit: oh, well that makes sense. i just read that you actually enjoyed New Moon

@mfan: I just made the same comment about the female audience in another post. I doubt that any of the top-grossing films have a reason to be threatened by new moon right now.

I say: even IF New Moon is complete and utter crap (I haven't seen it yet, but I plan to), it's STILL not an indictment against our society that it made so much. Neither is Transformers 2, even though it was by far the worst blockbuster in the past 10 years. Why?

First of all, it's just the opening day. New Moon will probably make somewhere in the neighborhood of $300mil domestically. That's far more than any of us were expecting, but that's not blow-my-brains out-of-this-world phenomenal. It's just really good. Now if it made $500mil, THAT would be phenomenal.

And let's say it did make $500mil. Still an indictment against society? Hardly. Rather, it's an insight. Why did it make so much? Because there's something the audience loves about the romance (and maybe the characters, though I do agree with Roger Ebert that in Twilight the characters are more shells that the audience projects themselves into, which is probably why many men don't like Twilight, because I can't imagine them wanting to be in Edward or Jacob's position; heck, same for Bella and the women who don't like Twilight).

Personally, I think Twilight is one of the worst examples of love for teenagers ever written. But I've read all four books and I continue to watch the movies. Why? My excuse is this: There's something irresistible about love stories that are SO ridiculous, yet told in SUCH earnest. The only other story to satisfy me on that front is Star Wars Episode II. :D I think Twilight is hilarious in all the wrong ways, and it's SUCH fun to make fun of it… but only because I've seen it. I couldn't make fun of it if I hadn't seen it, just like I can't make fun of Hannah Montana and Jonas Bros., however much I'm not interested in them, because I haven't listened to them and can't pass judgment. I hate everyone who says they hate Twilight if they haven't seen it or read the books. What they SHOULD say is: "I have no interest in Twilight. It doesn't sound like my thing." They have no right to say: "I don't like it," because they frankly know nothing about it.

Hey Laremy, I see over at BoxOfficeMojo.com that 2012 stands at 450mil total, where are you getting 270 mil at?

Did anyone forget this week's total is 200 Mil +??!!!

@Roger: They must have updated since I posted…

@colin: All I meant is everyone, including me, is assuming the films worldwide total will be twice it's domestic gross like the first installment. But what if has become popular worldwide? Then the overseas total MIGHT be twice it's domestic gross, like This Is It, for example.

@colin: And I meant I underestimated the female audience because I failed to consider they would be able to get guys to go to this movie with them. I liked New Moon. The people who didn't like it must not like it's relatively slow pacing. But it's very fast compared to the soap opera, Dark Shawdows, which was also popular with girls.

Actually I wouldn't mind being Robert Pattinson or Taylor Lautner (as in inserting myself in their position) because you get to be a vampire who can hang out in a cloudy, rainy town, or be a werewolf that is just a shapeshifter (not like the ones in pain in Underworld). And you get to be with Kristin Stewart. I'm not trying to be trashy by any means here; she is just a really cute girl.

Now breaking up with her…apparently you have to hope she won't commit suicide.

Truthfully, the only indictments against society going are the people who want to hate on everything that isn't one of their even-less-believable that Twilight art dramas that put most people to sleep, and make others wonder what the point was.
I mean at least the Transformers and people are fighting for the fate of the planet (and their lives). What were the people in Revolutionary Road doing? Yelling at each other and then one kills herself? Vomiting just thinking about it…

Also, apparently no one remembers being a depressed teenager. I mean what teenager isn't slightly depressed to some extent?

@Seiko:

Again with the demographics. Certain demographics are aimed at; teenagers mostly because they are the ones who rush to see every remotely good movie they will be at least somewhat entertained by.
But to say that ONLY that demographic enjoyed Twilight, New Moon, Transformers 1 and 2, etc.well maybe that's not what's being sad but I'm sure a lot of people seem to think this.
Half the people I know are in their 40's and all of them at least found Transformers 2 to be somewhat funny and very enjoyable, entertaining and pretty interesting.
I've known plently of both men and women in their 30's, 40's, and 50's who at least liked Twilight (as in not loved it).
Pretty much all of them found G.I. Joe to be dissapointing on some level.

New Moon's success is important because this may very well be the first gigantic blockbuster franchise targeted toward females! Sex and the City is huge too, granted, but Twilight did numbers that matched Batman and Spider-Man! Topped Pirates of the Caribbean! You can't ignore this demographic anymore…

New Moon's success is sad because the movie sucks. It's as bad as Transformers 2 as far as my opinion goes, and Transformers 2 success is equally sad.

I don't think, though, that New Moon can make $800 million worldwide. I may be wrong, but I think this movie will take a enourmous drop and should consider itself lucky to make over $300 million total (in the US). Double that and we have a $600 million dollars worldwide cume, which is HUGE, but not Batman or Spider-man's standard.

PS: 2012 worldwide cume is at $450 million right now, you can fix the number on your article Laremy. 2012 is also very popular, huge oversears, so who knows, maybe it'll do bigger nukbers than New Moon worldwide? You never know…

@JM: Trying to figure the phenomenon out for a while (the weekend) now, and I think Roger Ebert absolutely nailed it. I didn't think about the characters as just shells to put themselves into and that's why it works. It makes complete sense now.

What can we learn from the New Moon result?

1. Girls want romance and will get it vicariously if they have to.
2. The conventional wisdom of waiting two years between film sequel efforts in order
to "build up demand" can lose badly compared to striking while the iron is hot.
3. Although it's easier to figure out what kind of movie project will bring out men,
female movies are potentially more profitable since women are more easily able to
convince guys to accompany them to female skewing films than vice versa.
4. You don't need films with huge budgets to make huge money.

@Seiko: I don't want to defend Revolutionary Road. It was a decent movie, but all in all didn't really hit me too much. Art dramas don't put people to sleep if they deal realistically with the human condition. Case in point, Precious. This move is spectacular, and it connects with all audiences no matter race or class. It's about people, it's slow paced, sure, but it's about something more. It's finding a sliver of hope within a dark, painful world. And it has more emotion and beauty and "action" than all of the Twilight series. And it's doing great business (and it will make more than Crash, and will probably hit $100M by the time the Oscar season is over). So what if robots are fighting for our lives, the fight in Precious rings more true and features more at stake than a thousand Transformers 2.

Wronturn687's original prediction for New Moon was $130 million. I commented that his numbers, though they seemed high, were in the realm of possibilty. Let's look at the realm of possibilty for New Moon's final worldwide gross. Twilight opened at $69.6 million and grossed 192.7 for a decent multiplier of 2.78. If New Moon matches that multiplier it would make $391 million domestic. While Twilight matched it's domestic take overseas, a reasonable person could wonder if it has become more popular overseas in more areas. Making 1.5 times it's U.S. gross overseas might not happen, but it could. That would make New Moons worldwide gross $977 million, just $24 million short of Batman: The Dark Knight.

Although the above scenario is speculative. It shows that blockbuster titles ARE possibly in jeopardy. How can anybody doubt that when New Moon has done nothing but surprise on the upside so far.

@gobeatbox!: Releasing Ninja Assassin during Thanksgiving is what we call "Imaginative". Not exactly in tune with the Christmas spirit. If a male is seeing a movie with his parents or family or even date, it won't be NA. Still, I'm willing to predict $19 million for it's opening. Maybe.

In case anyone is wondering (probably not), I don't hate art dramas. Anyone starring Shirley McClaine is exellent in my opinion (Coco Channel, those two were she is love in Jack Nicholson the neighbor). But those two Kate Winslet stinkers The Reader and Revolutionary Road, anything by Guy Richie (how can any of that be considered art anyway?), that horrible Michelle Williams movie "Wendy and Lucy,"…those are just ones I can think of in recent memory. In my opinion the art drama area get's filled with more crappy movies than any other. Also someone always dies for no reason.

It's not like an action movie when someone will inevitably be blown up, get shot, beat up, thrown around, sacrifice themselves for others, etc. It should be meaningful and truthful to real life. Sure someone can die in a car accident or drop dead adruptly from some disease they or no one knew they had. Instead we have a movie like "Pay it Foward" where the whole message is silenced by killing the character meant to spread the message. What?

Truthfully I'd rather aim for something in between overloads of action and silliness or a poor art drama. Take Romero's Dawn Of The Dead (yes this is the best example I can come up with) for instance. You get a huge sense of feeling for these characters, who are just people trying to survive against…well, a partially action and horror setting. Especially in Day Of The Dead, where you know pretty much every character in and out, and they are all very important…then you get to see Zombies devour all of the bad ones, some of the goods. etc. Best payoff imaginable in my opinion.

Transformers fans meet Twilight fans. You guys are a perfect match and will definitely hit if off. Please, just don't have any children.

Maybe arthouse movies seem more uneven precisely because there are no explosions and etc. to distract you from what is wrong with the movie. Twilight was definitely better than An Education. While the acting in An Education was excellent, that didn't help the fact that they chose a twenty something year old to play the lead. In a movie about a 16 year old going out with someone 15 years older, it totally destroyed the impact of the entire movie. They also glossed over the stakes involved by simply talking about them instead of showing them. What happened to exposition sucks? The very name, arthouse film, shows that these films are not made for the audience, but for the film maker, who then hopes there are others out there who share his vision. An Education got a 94% rotten tomatoes rating, yet I think New Moon was more satisfying.

@mfan: Sorry, I meant New Moon was definitely better than An Education, not Twilight.

Final before the holiday comment: @Shawn: Speaking of Transformers ROTF, it made $402 million domestic. A reasonable prediction for New Moon is $391+million (I had to put in that plus, since the movie has been surprising on the upside). This prediction is bourne out by DVD sales, which were updated today. It looks like Twilight is going to end up ouselling ROTF by a significant amount of units. Does that also mean it will outgross ROTF at the theaters?

@Seiko: Definitely a better explanation of the feeling of the art drama. I think an argument sounds better when you use specifics (and using The Reader, that piece of crap, God I hate that movie with a passion) But I think that's true in all genres. Usually you get people jumping into the conventions of their genre and forget to offer anything new. Maybe we can pinpoint those movies more because in our heads, they are supposed to be better?

Also, the other important element going into the Dead movies is that they are intelligent movies. They tackle real issues along with creating solid characters. It doesn't fall into genre conventions. A lot of time and care were spent on the script and the performances and not just the effects. That is certainly something you won't see in Transformers 2 or New Moon.

@mfan: I'm sorry, were you complaining about someone looking too old to be playing a teenager as your chief complaint at An Education? Did you see Robert Pattinson in New Moon? Though I guess technically he wasn't playing a teenager but actually a 100 year old man. Also, art house films are made for the audience. It's just the filmmaker tends to take more care in the production. Who has the $20 million dollars or so just to get themselves off? The films also tend to be hitting a smaller demographic. Sometimes they cross over, sometimes they don't. But there is definite concern for the audience.

I believe Pattinson was 21 years old when he was cast in Twilight. Four years older than Kristen. Without the heroine in An Education looking very young, you don't get the feeling of how questionabe her relationship is. In fact it looks normal. Fail. And you are right that sometimes the film makers think of their audience. Some think that's what happened with An Education, that the director chickened out. You vastly overestimate what these films cost to make. But keep going to see more of them. You will definitely find some good ones. I used to go to the theater and just see whatever was playing. You can find some pleasant surprises that way.

But at least the really bad horror movies (as in not Drag To me Hell; that movie was so great) know they were bad, and were playing on something else, like the new The Final Destination (2 rocked) that used 3-D, or others that are hard to not be entertained. They don't claim to be so great. The very title of "art drama" conveys something so great.
Same goes with action movies, mystery, suspense, just anything really. They aren't titled "art". That's about all I can think of for that…

"The Blind Side" will an amazing success