Star Trek did pretty well this weekend, but not enough to hit my lofty projections. No worries, it's going to stick around due to the solid reviews and word-of-mouth it's generating. Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 4 Weeks In A Row
I think I read somewhere that the budget was above $150m, a huge gamble on Paramount's part. It looks like it's going to pay off though, this will be the highest grossing Trek ever by around Wednesday or so.
Result: 76.5 million (My rank: #1, $15.9m off)
From $85m to $27m is quite a fall. Did EW call that? Clearly this one suffered at the hands of both Trek and lackluster audience reaction. It needs about another $120m at the theater to give it a shot at profit on DVD. Should get there, barely, but this 68 percent drop was even worse than the largely panned X-Men: The Last Stand's second weekend.
Result: 27.0 million (My rank: #2, $10.9m off)
It couldn't have cost much to make, but they won't do anything internationally either. So it's a case of good news / bad news for Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.
Result: 10.4 million (My rank: #4, $1.7m off)
It held up better than I predicted. I still haven't seen it. Does anyone out there want to give it a plug in the comments section? I just want to know what we're dealing with here.
Result: 6.6 million (My rank: #5, $1.6m off)
Next Day Air was actually up about $150k for the #5 slot on Friday, but Efron and the family dollar pulled ahead as the weekend got going. Warner Bros. has got to be fairly pleased with 17 Again; it's nearing the coveted triple digits status.
Result: 4.4 million (My rank: #8, $1.0m off)
As much as I love Mos Def, he's picked some truly odd projects. 16 Blocks made around $60m. Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy cleared $100m … but probably also doomed any sequel chances. Be Kind, Rewind was a disaster. I guess what I'm getting at is that I'd like to represent Mr. Def. He's got talent, but it's being squandered.
Result: 4.0 million (My rank: #3, $5.1m off)
The Soloist picked up another 57 theaters this weekend, I suppose it's gaining momentum? Or are they of the "dollar" theater variety? At only $23.5m cume, the numbers aren't promising.
Result: 3.6 million (My rank: #6, $.2m off)
According to the figures I've often heard, a film needs to hit 3x its budget theatrically to lock in a profit. That means Monsters vs. Aliens needs another $200 million from somewhere. Perhaps the 3-D split is better though? It's hard to tell if the studios are gambling smart… or simply gambling by banking on 3-D.
Result: 3.3 million (My rank: #7, $.2m off)
Yep, it was what we thought it was this weekend.
Result: 2.48 million (My rank: #9, $0.18m off)
Samesies.
Result: 2.41 million (My rank: #10, $0.41m off)
And now it's time for something difficult. Star Trek will most likely clear $40 million next weekend. Is that going to be enough to top Angels and Demons? It's our first real horse race of the summer. It it helps Da Vince Code opened at $77m and went on to make $758m worldwide… so it shouldn't be close if this one fits a similar profile. Your turn!