Early Predictions…

Terminator Salvation – 82.7
Night at the Museum II – 68.2
Star Trek – 28.9
Wolverine – Screwed

Terminator: 12 million

Terminator: $75 Million
Night at the Museum: $43 Million
Star Trek: $33 Million
Angels & Demons: $22 Million
Dance Flick: $11 Million
Wolverine: $6 Million

For the 4-day weekend, I'd say Terminator at around $83 million and Night At The Museum at around $72 million, because it's been over a month since a wide release that was aimed at younger audiences came out. Oh, and Dance Flick will pull in around $20 million, because it looks mad funny. And finally, we'll have another weekend where the top 5 will all make over $10 million (knock on wood).

I really feel that last year all these films would have pulled more, I can't remember exactly but I think ever since the resecion the big blockbuster films have lost a good 10 million from what they normally have. But maybe I'm completly wrong.

4-day Period:

Termynator: 95
NATM: 75
ST: 33
A&D: 32
Dance Flick: 12
Wolverine: 10

Correction: Termynator at 85

I saw Terminator Salvation about a week ago at an early screening and it's not the badass awesome looking film the trailer makes it out to be by any means. I think it'll win big its opening weekend, but people won't be going back for seconds like Star Trek.

I was .2 MILLION off on my prediction for STAR TREK!! I predicted $43.2 million while it made exactly $43 million! You should keep mentioning who gives the best predictions, Laremy.. if I remember, I was the only one confident enough to predict it doesn't make under $40 mill but breaks through that and nabs $43 mill.

As for the Memorial Day weekend…

EARLY 4-DAY PREDICTIONS
1. TERMINATOR: SALVATION – $101.2 million
2. NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2: BATTLE OF THE SMITHSONIAN – $89.5 million
3. DANCE FLICK – $22.4 million

=]

I think Terminator may be able to do 90-100 million on the 4-day weekend. And Night at the Museum 2 should do great too, something around 70-80 million.

I don't know about the rest though…
With two high profile movies (and sequesl!) opening this weekend, I suppose A&D, Star Trek and Wolverine will take huge drops. Well, A&D and Wolveirne CERTAINLY will, I'm not certain about Star Trek… I think it and Terminator shares the same audience, so maybe it will drop a lot. Maybe.

1. Terminator: Salvation: $102.4 million
2. Night At The Museum 2: $48.6 million
3. Star Trek: $29.1 million
4. Angels And Demons: $19.8 million
5. Dance Flick: $14.4 million
6. Wolverine: $6.7 million
7. Ghost Of Girlfriend's Past: $4.2 million
8. Obsessed: $2.9 million
9. Monsters Vs. Aliens: $1.8 million
10. 17 Again: $1.3 million
Terminator will win, NATM 2 will pull a Narnia and will make slightly more then half of the last film's money and Angels and Demons will hopefully stop bad Dan Brown books from being turned into equally bad movies

I read something that showed that Angels and Demons only sold less than half of what The Da Vinci Code Books sold. Which means it could be the reason why A&D is far from DVC's numbers. That and because some didn't like the first one.

Next Week?

Terminator – 85M
Night at the Museum – 73M
Star Trek – 27M
A&D – 24M
Dance Flick and Wolverine – Whoever wins, still loses.

Next weekend looks like it will be a close one. Terminator will win it, but it won't out gross Night at the Museum 2 overall. Terminator will open just like Wolverine and tumble off. Night at the Museum will pull a Paul Blart and stick around at least until Ice Age 3, Up might hurt it a little but not much. So…

4-Day

Terminator- 90.0
Night at the Museum- 88.0
Angels- 21.0
Star Trek-20.0

Boxofficemojo takes a much brighter view of A&D's final gross than you do. They point out that, in their novel forms, "Angels and Demons" sold less than half the copies of "The Da Vinci Code," so a 60% retention is, in fact, very good, especially considering the negative reaction to the first movie.

But of course the best part of the weekend is "Star Trek" dropping only 43%. That's a REALLY good 2nd-weekend hold for a summer action movie; they normally fall at least 50% (or 55%, or 60+%). I'm glad to see that word-of-mouth is alive and well.

I know why all the movies held so well this weekend, though. It's because the only new competition was "Angels and Demons," and it's the only adult-aimed entertainment in the whole lot (okay, so "Next Day Air" IS rated R, but it doesn't seem to be aimed at the adult-minded crowd). You'll notice its only other competition, "State of Play" was one of the few films this week to suffer a bad drop (-50%, which isn't good for its genre at all). So I'm not surprised that "Monsters vs. Aliens" fell only 8% (also remember that it's in its 8th weekend, where unpredictably good holds are a bit more likely). Nor am I surprised that "Wolverine" had the best 3rd-weekend hold of all the X-Men movies, even after its worst 2nd-weekend hold.