Filed under: Box-Office News

Box-Office Wrap-Up: Mar. 20 – Mar. 22, 2009

Nic Cage's Knowing defies The Oracle and takes the top spot.

Good game, Nic Cage. You got me. I've heard all kinds of things on Knowing, to the point where I probably just need to see it myself. Knowing has made more domestically than Next, The Wicker Man, and Bangkok Dangerous, so clearly I had it pegged incorrectly. Let's get into it.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
Did you know Summit Entertainment is considered an independent studio? I guess everyone that isn't a major studio is indie. So Nic Cage actually struck a blow for indie filmmakers everywhere! This also seems like the type of film that will do even better internationally, so it's good news all the way around for Summit this weekend.
Result: 24.8 million (My rank: #3, $9.8m off)
I was right on the money here, I just had the top slot all jacked up. Rudd and Segel are both becoming real names on the scene, for instance they are already getting puff pieces in USA Today.
Result: 18.0 million (My rank: #1, $.3m off)
Commenter Steve mentioned that Julia Roberts salary makes this result a poor one for Universal. I disagree. There's no way Roberts is getting $15m these days. I would guess her salary was in the $5m range, as in "Hi Julia, would you like to work with Clive, Wilkinson, and Giamatti?" Now then, Steve went on to point out that a woman at the top of the marquee hurts box office chances. Perhaps I'll tackle that one next week, it is looking like a trend.
Result: 14.4 million (My rank: #2, $1.2m off)
This one was what we thought it was. It will never sniff $100m domestically, but worldwide grosses will probably be decent.
Result: 13.0 million (My rank: #4, $0.8m off)
There's not much left to say on this title. Everyone has weighed in, there's been some disagreements, and now we must all move on with our lives. I'll start.
Result: 6.7 million (My rank: #5, $0.8m off)
A nice little run in the middle portion, but that's because they all had definite trendlines. You can't beat stable math.
Result: 5.9 million (My rank: #6, $0.7m off)
Brad was mentioning how Fox is going to greenlight action films with an eye on repeating this result. But they'll mess it up, right? I mean if you had to bet… you'd bet cheap copies, yeah?
Result: 4.1 million (My rank: #7, $0.6m off)
On the other hand, no one will try to repeat this result. They'll just market the hell out of a small film next year too, in the grand tradition of Juno and Little Miss Sunshine.
Result: 2.7 million (My rank: #9, $.4m off)
Hmmm, this is falling faster than I expected. These Tyler Perry films don't seem to have much in the way of staying power, do they?
Result: 2.5 million (My rank: #8, $.7m off)
At least Paul Blart didn't make it. That's a small but delightful victory.
Result: 2.1 million (My rank: Not Ranked)

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As I've said before, Fox just needs to stop making movies and instead snap 'em up from people who have already made them and market them. Greenlighting movies in hopes of repeating Taken's success? Can anyone say Z-grade copycats coming in 2010? Can't they just spend their time finding the next "Slumdog Millionaire" or "Juno," or else go to Europe and snap up another action film? "Run Lola Run" could have done with some nice Fox marketing and a cool $100 million domestic run (it got $7.3 million; quite decent for a foreign film, but nothing compared to "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" or "Pan's Labyrinth"). But of course I'm being fantastical.

As for Tyler Perry's latest falling quicker than expected? Not at all. It's falling no quicker than his other films; in fact, in its 3rd and 4th weekends it fell significantly less. All 5 of its weekends are by far the best amongst Tyler Perry's films. I was expecting it to do just as well as "Madea's Family Reunion," but even I didn't see it doing $90 million by the end of its run. But it makes sense. Think: 1) We all know that Madea is by far Tyler Perry's most popular character, so 2) If the movie has Madea's name in the title, it'll be more popular than if it didn't. Observe that "Madea's Family Reunion," the only previous Tyler Perry movie to have her name in the title, was also the previous highest grosser. 3) So we have established that since "Madea Goes to Jail" would have always done at least as well as "Madea's Family Reunion," what made it even more popular? Why, the promise of her going to jail, of course! What's funnier: A loud, crass, fat black lady at a family reunion, or a loud, crass, fat black lady in jail? Okay, so it's debatable, but we all know what the masses would choose. And the numbers prove it all.

- JM
( March 22nd, 2009 | 4:51 pm )
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