And with that The Hangover is the first sleeper hit of the year.
Will Ferrell should really stop making movies, he's much better on a small screen.
What was the first "bomb" of the summer? Terminator Salvation or Land of the Lost? Not that I'm basing Terminator Salvation, just curious.

Reasons Land of the Lost flopped:

1. Will Ferrell's usual schtick isn't clicking with audiences anymore or just not with directors that aren't Adam McKay (Blades of Glory is an exception for me personally).

2. History has not shown Will Ferrell doing a film adaptation of an old TV show a successful venture.

3. Universal over-advertised the film to the point of annoyance. Let me be more specific: Universal over-advertised the film with incredibly crappy trailers and TV spots to the point of annoyance.

4. It was falsely labeled as a family film.

5. The Hangover just had a lot better buzz, and just simply looked like a better movie.

This will hopefully prove to studios that people are willing to see original ideas and that sequels and remakes or rehashes don't always have their "built in audiences."

@Jay Beezy: I think your #4 reason is entirely true, but only half of the story. Because the film should have been a family film, not only was it falsely labeled, it was improperly conceived.

laremy you need some clarification.

A movie is suppose to make 2.5 times its budget WORLDWIDE to be successful.

I hate NATM 2 but I wouldn't label it a flop just because you want to. The movie has done $127M+$148M = $ 275M worldwide.

It will end with $160-165M domestically and $210-215 overseas. It is pretty successful. Now granted if fox had released this in december it would have been much bigger but they gave that spot to Avatar.

Still NATM2 performance is much much better than Prince Caspian which was a total failure because that had a 200+M budget.

Wow. So now the question is, will Up still be able to make a higher amount than The Hangover next weekend, with Imagine That coming out? I expect that movie to flop, so the answer is probably yes.

Way off on my top 5 this week. I expected Up to have strong legs, but I didn't expect it to display Nemo-like strength. It's setting course for 275-300+mill, and it would be well-deserved. Good for the Hangover though, it was a very good movie. Overall, It's nice to see 2 superb films raking it in. Both will definitely do well in the coming weeks.

I think when it's all said and done, Land of the Lost will be the bigger bomb than T:S. T:S is going to salvage some significant coin overseas given it's a sci-fi movie installment of a renowned franchise. On the other hand, US comedies don't necessarily do well overseas, and I don't think Land of the Lost DVD sales is going to come near to covering the losses. Nevertheless, both studios are definitely disappointed with the B.O. performances of their respective films.

As for next week, my early predictions:
Pelham= 27mil (just going by Man on Fire and Inside Man nos.)
Up= 28-32mil
Hangover=26-29mil

Simply put sometimes the film gods like to reward our faith in mankind by having one great film exceeding everyone's expectations (The Hangover) and punishing crap (Land Of The Lost) on the same weekend. Simply put over promoting+misguiding audiences no matter the overall quality= box office disaster.
With that being said unless The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 is really a romantic dramaedy I would predict a $38 million opening and no matter how you spin Imagine That it won't even hit $13 million next weekend. Now who wants to bet Up will hit $300 million?

I think next weekend Up and Pelham are gonna battle for a top spot. Each has a good chance at about 28-32 mil.

Pelham=high 20mil to 35mil tops
The odds on favorite to be no.1 next weekend, but it's far from a given when you have strong holdovers that have connected with mainstream audiences and word of mouth keeps spreading

Imagine that=15mil tops.
Will be eaten alive by UP, and whatever is left will be picked up by Night at the Museum 2.

Up=29-33mil
The Hangover=27-31mil

@Brad Brevet: That is also true. It just didn't pop when I posted my reasons. It happens. Can't always think of absolutely everything.

@John Debono:

Nah, I won't go far as to say that, but it can definitely beat "The Incredibles" box office total.

@Eric:

I think that "Land of the Lost" is the bigger flop. "Terminator" is a box office disappointment, for sure, but not a flop. It'll do well overseas and the DVD/TV sales for the film will be brisk for sure. "Land of the Lost" will be lucky to make $100 million worldwide, since this opening bodes for a $60 million final U.S. total at best (and that's if Word of mouth is great…which it isn't), plus Universal already said that they're going for a subdued (read: small) overseas campaign for the film, so don't expect anything higher than $50 million from other countries. Since the supposed costs of the film including marketing, prints and production costs were around $200 million, and the box office will be about half that…that's a bomb.

At it's current rate, Up should hit 275mil and has a great chance at making a run at 300mil. It's displaying pretty much the same legs as Finding Nemo. As for The Hangover, 160mil easily, and if it mimicks the Wedding Crashers, 205mil.

Next week:

1.Pelham=34 million (maybe)
2.UP= 30 million (won't be a surprise if it's no.1 again)
3.The Hangover=27.5 million

As for Imagine that, well, judging by the grosses of Pluto Nash and Meet Dave, 15mil tops. Eddie Murphy has been hit and miss with family oriented films as of late. "Imagine that" doesn't seem to have the same pull as his earlier Nutty Professor films. He did have one hit-sorta- in "Daddy Day Care" but that film had the market to itself for a couple of weeks. "Imagine That" is entering the fray with that 800lb beast UP and a formidable Night at the Museum 2 still in play.

And I felt stupid about to post my original predictions of the weekend which I first locked in on BOM's derby. $42.7 for Hangover, $40 for Up.

Why did I change my numbers on here? Because I looked back on BOM's page for R-rated comedies and rarely did one crack $35-40 mil in their opening weekend. I saw The Hangover 3 times already and I'm glad it killed this weekend, with strong Wedding Crasher-like holds to come.

Looked back at Washington's box office opening weekends. Just for trivia, since Out of Time, he has alternated from a non-#1 opening film, to a #1 opening film all the way up to The Great Debaters. Not really an indication that Pelham will be #1 but it definitely have a strong shot. It's been marketed well and names like Washington and Travolta will make sure that R-rating doesn't hurt its chances. Frankly, something went horribly wrong if Up or The Hangover takes #1 next weekend instead of it.

Imagine That: not to seem so cruel to a family film but there's really absolutely no incentive to see this film at all. Bedtime Stories at least had visual effects sequences, Imagine That will have to rely on Murphy's physical antics alone. Families will no doubt go for Up or NatM2 instead of a dull-looking movie. I'd say it'll be lucky if it cracks #5 or 6.

"Imagine That" is doomed. It does not have anything at all that will entice kids, no 3D, no animals like in Dr. Dolittle, and no visual effects like in Nutty Prof. Saw UP last night at a packed theater full of kids, and they greeted the trailer to "Imagine That" with a collective MEH.

Glad to see Up and Hangover huge while LOTL bombs. Summer 2009 has been all about people heading to the quality films. I love it!

1) Up: $28.5M (another great hold, on its way to around $275M)
2) Hangover: $25.7M (oddly enough, that's what I predicted for it this weekend!)
3) Pelham 1 2 3: $25.2M (close race, but this should still do well)
4) Imagine That: $14.1M (forceful against the family audience)
5) NATM 2: $9M (ditto)

next week:
1. The Hangover – $34.5 Million
the word of mouth is phenomenal, it'll be a tight race again, but i don't think this one will drop as much in it's second week as Up in it's third.
2. Up – $33 Million
This might be on it's way to Nemo numbers
3. Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 – $23.8 Million
If this was a buddy comedy, maybe. But, "Denzel" and "Travolta" don't mean what they used to, especially in an R-rated thriller remake where the two stars aren't very recognizable (emphasis on the R-rated).
4. Night at the Museum – $9 Million
I mean, I don't know who's still seeing it…but they are.
5. Star Trek – $6.5 Million
6. Imagine That – $5.5 Million
7. Land of the Lost – $5 Million
a big drop for a big flop
8. Terminator Salvation – $4 Million
9. Drag Me to Hell – $3.6 Million
Where was the word of mouth? WHY is this doing worse than Haunting In Connecticut?
10. Angels and Demons – $2.4 Million
the last gasp

1.UP=32mil
2.Hangover=29mil
3.Pelham=27.5mil

I'm not even gonna bother with Imagine That

Any estimates on how Moon might do next weekend?

I'm seeing Pelham pulling 30mill-ish, maybe I'm wrong but it seem very generic and doesn't really have brand recognition, as well as this Denzel Washington no longer has name recognition factor.

Up or Pelham will battle for the lead and Hangover will be a strong third. As for Imagine That, well, I'm sure Eddie Murphy had fun on set.

@EnglishGavz:

"Pelham" just does look generic, in my (and I feel other people's) eyes. Denzel, with the exception of his biggest hits "American Gangster" and "Inside Man", always opens within the $17-$24 million range. The opening is proportional to how much hype and how good the promotion is. "Gangster" and "Man" both had excellent trailers along with strong supporting casts, so they opened above and beyond the norms of the genre. "Pelham" looks nondescript, with Travolta just looking…odd and Denzel playing the same role again.
Again there is a solid fan base for this, but it'll either just barely take the top spot, or it'll come in third (if "Up" and "Hangover" have remarkable holds this weekend).

@Connor: Moon is not going to get very many theaters, so the per theater avg should be $10k +.

We've got actuals. The Hangover is the winner with $45M!! Up is second with $44.3M.

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/box-office-cliffhanger-sunday-numbers-show-the-hangover-catching-up-for-no-1/

This is insane. I've had three friends calling me over the weekend and ORDERING me to go watch The Hangover. Word of mouth is mutating this movie into some kind of supermonster!

Laremy, what the heck?? I predicted $43.5 million and I get no recognition?? That's the second time!

Word just came in that it's now NUMBER 1 too, which I also updated my predictions to be. At least give me some recognition when that updated article goes up.. geez….

Hangover is no.1. It did better than what WB initially estimated on Sun. Hangover finished with 44.9mil. Disney/Pixar was pretty much on the mark with their estimates at 44.2mil. What a weekend. Both are really winners here. Hangover for opening beyond WB's wildest dreams, and UP for dropping a mere 35% which puts it on the same track as Finding Nemo. These 2 will be neck and neck again-probably with Pelham 123-with around 28-32mil this weekend

Finals had Hangover at 49.9mil and UP at 44.1mil. A mere 800k separated them. Warner Bros underestimated the Sun grosses for Hangover. Disney was on the ball with their projections, just off by 100k. Breaking it down by individual days, UP was no.1 for Sunday with 13.2mil, while Hangover made 13.1 (which was higher than the inital estimate of 11.8mil or so by Warners). Nice weekend for both films really. It's obvious both films are being driven hard by word of mouth, which led to one opening way beyond expectations and the other displaying tremendous staying power.

my mistake, it should've read 44.9mil above

I guess WB was rather conservative with their initial estimate. They were off by 1.7mil or so. Up was pretty much on the mark with estimates. Anyway, it's nice to see two superb films doing extremely well at the B.O. (make that 3 with Trek)

I think Hangover might take #1 for another weekend next weekend, beating the rather weak competition. Early predics:

1. The Hangover- $32.2
2. Up- $27.3
3. Taking of Pelham 123- $25.0
4. Imagine That- $16.1
5. Night At The Museum 2- $8.3

Completely agree with Vince about next weekend. We already have the Top 3 in sight, just damned if we know how it's gonna stack up. I like what BOM's predicting so far:

"1 The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 $28.5
2 Up $27.9
3 The Hangover $26.3"

My opinion, The Hangover doesn't drop that sharply. It'll be interesting to see how The Hangover does in its third weekend against Year One.

Does Year One have enough momentum and hype to open big? Is the Wedding Crashers comparison to The Hangover still relevant, considering it took #1 for the first time in its third week when opening against weaker new releases? Those are things to consider.