Well, since Ice Age 3 opens at Wednesday unlike its predecessors, I think it's deginitely not gonna hit $68 million or even $60 million. The first two days will be huge (about $35-40 million I think), but I predict no more than $55 million for the weekend itself. Still, with the help of first two days and great weekdays it will break $200 million pretty easily. Right now I'd say $220 million for the final gross, but that's just an assumption.

As for Public Enemies… I could very well see it pulling off American Gangster numbers if it opened on Friday, but since it opens on Wednesday, I would say no more than $35 million for the 3-day weekend with about $20-25 million made in first two days. Anyway, it's gonna have a nice gross by the end of its run, from $130 million all the way to $170. Michael Mann will definitely have his highest grossing film this summer.

Next weekend, I think Ice Age will be #1 with something in the mid-60s. Transformers will probably end up in the mid 50s, while Public Enemies will likely end up in the mid-to-high 40s.

My early predictions are

1. Ice Age 3-$65M
2. Transformers 2-$54M
3. Public Enemies-$47M

Oh, and as to TF2… I'd say $45-50 million, which is 55-60% fall. Sounds about right to me.

First off, I'm liking the new Box Office Oracle Logo. Verrrry nice

I think Transformers will be more akin to Spider-man 3 than Spider-man 2 or Pirates of the Caribbean 2. This movie will fall so hard, so fast. It will not have the long legs that The Dark Knight had.

As for Ice Age 3, it will drain the kiddie audience from Transformers and Pubic Enemies will do the same for the older, smarter audiences. So all that will be left for Transformers will be the repeat viewings and kids to old for Ice Age yet too young or not interested in Public Enemies.

Word of mouth is going to catch up to Transformers VERY quickly.

"While I hope Dark Knight retains the crown (I've yet to hear anyone argue Transformers 2 was superior)" I have a feeling you won't, if anyone does chances are they will be mocked on this website for a very long time. In fact anyone who thinks that Transformers 2 is better than TDK is…whoo boy…ummm, jeez, I can't think of the right word.

Only $2 million off with ROTF sadly, oh well even if it does beat TDK this week, it won't hit anywhere near $400 million much less $533.7 million.
As for next weekend I will guess Ice Age 3 makes $62 million Fri-Sun, Public Enemies makes $53 million and ROFT is third with $43 million (Word of mouth will kill this one.)

@Eric:

Pirates 3 dropped like a rock after its opening as well, even with the lack of competition ("Knocked Up" was the biggest movie opening the week after). So I'm thinking around a 66% drop because the competition is huge. Remember, "The Dark Knight" had little competition in the following weeks after it's opening (the biggest opening film was "Mummy" two weeks after and "TDK" still topped the 40 million bow of that movie). I expect Ice Age and Public Enemies to take at least $80-90 million away from "Transformers".

It'll end up around $400 million when all is said and done, but if it does fall short of that number I won't be surprised. I will be very surprised if "TF2" does get the 5-day record, but it just goes to show that marketing, not the quality of the film, is responsible for the debacle.

Ice Age will unfortunately beat Public Enemies because of the R rating which I am excited about. Transformers will most likely repeat as number one next week, but Public Enemies is sure to be the best movie in the theatres next week!

Ice Age- $65.1 Million
Public Enemies- $34.5 Million

Will people be turned off by all of the hand held cameras in Public Enemies?

@atl roller: I didn't find it distracting at all, personally.

@Laremy: the clips i have seen of the film didnt bother me in the least bit, but i didnt know if people would be turned off by it and word of mouth wouldnt be very good, and i know this film is going to be too good to have people downing it over something so miniscule.

I will be furious if Transformers beats TDK's 5-day record. And I'll be in a grouchy mood until Transformers starts falling like a stone. It was a horrible movie, and I hope word of mouth crushes its following weekends into a mealy pulp.

You gotta admit this is still pretty damn impressive. The movie opened in the mid week to a incredible 60mill, but was still able to pull enough steam to do over 100mill over the three day. Now , I'm pretty sure if this movie was as hated as everyone has been saying word of mouth would have been out by Thur seeing as mostly everybody saw it then. I don't think this flick will do as badly as everyone wan'ts, but it's still a little too early to tell. Also, I saw it yesterday in IMAX and was stunned by how much I enjoyed it. It's not a perfect movie by any means, but I don't think it's awful either. The crowd seemed to really love it too since they applauded at the end. It was just a really fun experiance and nothing more.

Peace Out !

I hope that Public Enemies is able to knock off Transformers and hold off Ice Age for the top spot. It looks fantastic to me and though I haven't heard much in terms of reviews I have to believe Mann, Depp and Bale would have a hard time turning in anything less than an awesome movie.

My very rough early guesses

1) Public Enemies – $55 million (A popcorn munching braindead movie had this week, now a movie for people with taste takes the top spot)

2) Ice Age – $52 million (It's gonna be close. I haven't seen a single frame of this series but it makes money. I hope PE holds it off but it could very well lose out)

3) Tranformers 2 – $41 million (It's going to fall extremely hard. I predict a once-and-done week on top and a painful drop from here on out)

4) The Hangover – $ 15 Million (I'm putting it over The Proposal simply because it's better)

5) The Proposal – $12 million (Ryan Reynolds has amazing potential in movies, but he always ends up in bland/bad movies. This is no different, but I pray to the sweet merciful Gods above that the Deadpool movie actually delivers where "Wolverine" failed.

Why is everyone saying word of mouth will kill TF2? Everyone I've talked to liked it or loved it, and anyone comparing this to The Dark Knight are fools. They're fruits and candies apart. The only bad word of mouth is coming from the internet geeks, and you guys haven't proven yourselves a very reliable bunch. Remember when you thought Snakes on a Plane was gonna be a huge hit? I rest my case.

@Just Myself: I'm not sure what kind of people you've talked to, but every single person here in the city that I've talked to absolutely hated TF2. Sure, some simple-minded highschool kids might enjoy, but they hardly ever count for anything in the long run; not even my best friend, who loves his explosions and chases just as much as the next guy, was impressed.

We're all going to hell if Transformers beats The Dark Knight, even if for JUST that 5-day record.

And I'll predict it'll drop as strong as Spider-Man 3, so I'd guess a 2nd weekend around 42-45 million. 50 million tops, if there's something REALLY wrong with America. =P

And Ice Age 3 will definately top either figures.
Can't say the same for Public Enemies though.

I think Transformers will drop around 60%, not due to word of mouth or anything, just that this tends to happen to bloated opening weekends. The Dark Knight didn't do it because of the word of mouth and the one thing Transformers doesn't have. People rushing out to see it again. I know people who saw The Dark Knight five times in the theaters minimum. TF2 did get horrid reviews, and I'm a huge hater (can't believe I just used that word) on the film. But those who said it was good said they aren't going out to see it again. I think the actuals will come in a bit lower than that 112 million estimate.

Ice Age 3 has the 3-D theaters, plus a lack of big family movies since Up, so it should have a nice open. Though it may be tough since July 4 is on a Saturday this year. I see $60M for the weekend, and $85M for the five day.

Transformers 2 will follow suit with about $45M for the three day.

Public Enemies has things going for it, and things going against it. The early reviews are not glowing, which usually gets the adults out to see a film. Plus we've got that R rating, which can go either way. I see $30M with the three day, and about $45M for the first five days.

@Brad Brevet: You know what makes me sad, Brad? The fact that there was once a time, not that long ago, when it took a truly exceptional film to put up big numbers at the box office. We have so many examples:

1. Jaws (1975)
2. Star Wars (1977)
3. Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)
4. E.T. (1982)
5. Titanic (1997)

I miss that world. But alas, apparently, that world doesn't exist. Box Office numbers no longer tell the tale of a film-worth-seeing, its merely hit or miss. Sure, amongst all of the big-budget trash (X-Men III, Shrek III, Spider-Man III, Pirates III, Transformers 2) lies such phenomenal achievements as The Dark Knight, Lord of the Rings, Spider-Man 2, Wall-E; however, it is impossible for a fan to come up smelling like roses. I'm tired of digging through filth at the multiplex*

I'd like your thoughts.

*These comments come in the wake of viewing Transformers 2, the biggest waste of $200 million I've ever witnessed – and I liked the first film

I'm so eager to see the actuals. One site has T:RotF at 108mil for the 3-day. We'll know tomorrow whether it was overestimated, underestimated, or on the mark.

Now we get to see how good the T:RotF's legs are, which I do not think will be anywhere near as good as the legs both Hangover and UP are currently displaying.

My early predictions:

1.IA3=61mil 3-day. 91mil 5-day
2.T:RotF= 48mil (going w/ a 57% drop from the 112mil studio estimate)
3.Public Enemies=35mil 3-day. 50mil 5-day
4.The Proposal=12mil
5.Hangover=11.5mil
6.UP=10mil

On a side note, this weekend is tricky since Sat is the 4th of July. Past years have shown that he 4th of July is pretty much a crapshoot at the box office, since it leans toward being a softer day at the box office with people being pre-occupied with bbqs, trips, fireworks, and what not. The day before and after the 4th of July tends to be stronger while there is a visible dip on the actual holiday itself.

Can't wait for the actuals myself. IA3 and Public Enemies will pull people away from it to varying degrees. IA3 will take kids/families, and PE will take adults, it's share of young males, and women who adore Johnny Depp. The fanboy opening week rush is over, and now we'll see what word of mouth really is for Transformers 2.

Honestly, I think the WOM on TF2 is gonna help it rather than hurt it. Everybody I have talked to (in person) has said it was great summer fun. Dumb, but fun. I have every intention of seeing it again, and I thought it was the most retarded thing since sliced bread. Plus, you have to take in the fact that the drops after a Wed. opening are much less than usual. I say about a 40% drop.

Transformers 2: $63.4M
Ice Age 3: $58.6M
Public Enemies: $45.6M

Anyway it goes, this is gonna be a huge all-around weekend. Records maybe? And my above predictions are rather high and completely random on the exacts. Haha.

@Tedums the Precious: Hey, sliced bread ain't retarded! You wanna know retarded? The Slap Chop. That's retarded. :P

I've been overjoyed by the actions of the moviegoing public so far this summer. However, my faith has been severely shaken this past weekend. This weekend was a huge giant step backwards that pretty much wiped out the great strides that were taken. However, I'm holding out hope that my faith will be restored this coming weekend if I see a 65% or more plunge for a certain movie.

Jonny Depp is a hot commodity at the moment, I'd like to say the same for Bale but T4 has put doubt in my mind. Public Enemies is R rated which will hurt it even if it does get good reviews. The film to me seems to be aiming at critical acliam and if box office success comes so be it. That is the way Depp works.

Ice Age is established, fun, and no one really cares about the names, no one will be watching for Simon Pegg. Really can't say much except it'll pull the bog standard kids money.

Speaking of nobody gives a damn about the names Michael Bay, Steven Speilburg, Sgia Le Bouf and all the rest will have absolutley no influnce on the box office pull for Transformers. They made it to be a big fun action sequel like so many others films have done this year, Star Trek held solid because it was good. People didn't like T4 and Watchmen and they sunk like a stone and fell into the familiar realms of generic actioneers people know of but don't care. I think Transformers will fall into that.

No matter what people think T2 wont bleed hard enough. I can't imagine a film of that imence-itude droping more than 55%. Ice Age will come a close second and PE will take a solid third.

well, the only people i've heard who disliked Transformers are critics and people who post on sites like this, who don't make up an enormously huge chunk of the movie-going population.
Next week will look a little something like this:
1. Transformers – $63 Million
2. Ice Age – $43 Million
3. Public Enemies – $38 Million
4. The Hangover – $11 Million
5. The Proposal – $9 Million
6. Up – $7 Million
7. My Sister's Keeper – $6 Million
8. Away We Go – $3 Million
9. Year One – $2 Million
10. Star Trek – $1 Million

Methinks they overestimated the 5-day number just a little. Or I could be wrong and they actually UNDERestimated the number and this takes Batman's record. I wouldn't like that, but whatever works, I guess.

I say Transformers takes around a 55% drop next weekend. The Independence holiday will help somewhat, but fresh competition will be a negative and, to be honest, word-of-mouth is not that great. Personally I didn't really like the movie, and most friends and family members felt the same way. This opens the door for Ice Age 3 to take the top spot, and while it doesn't really sound like it has so much buzz, kids have already seen Up three times and need something new. But I'd prefer they just go see it a fourth. Public Enemies should do very well with males and older audiences, as well as women who love Depp. He is dreamy, you know.

1. Ice Age: 53m (85m from Wednesday)
2. Transformers: 50m
3. Public Enemies: 33m (53m from Wednesday)
4. Proposal: 12m
5. Hangover: 11m

Since it's astronomical 5 day start, it's more than obvious than TF2 will suffer a huge drop next weekend, but that will NOT BE caused by the word of mouth, it be will simply because of the gigantic start. Many of those who wanted to see TF2 have already done it, and I don't think they would like to repeat it, since they only wanted a 2 and a half hours of robots, explosions, Megan Fox and that's all. TDK had that spectacular legs only beacause people who went to see it on the first weekends, did wanted to see it again. That's not going to happen to TF2, and that will be the cause of the big drop next weekend, not the word of mouth, not Johnny Depp, and not Scrat.

For those who believe Public Enemies is going to gross over 50 million, keep dreaming!! … cm on!, it's not a mega blockbuster, it doesn't have a great fan base, and don't tell me that beaucase it has Johnny Depp and Christian Bale the movie is going to make a big noise next weekend. It's proven that big starts doesn't always mean that big numbers are coming. It's not going to gross over 35 million, that's the roof.

Next weekend:

1.- Ice Age 3: 50 million F-S, 85 million W-S.
2.- Transformers 2: 47 million – 301 million in 12 days.
3.- Public Enemies: 35 million F-S, 58 million W-S.

And do you remember Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest?

It's very similar to TF2: A movie that went high but took a while to get that high, a fan base created since the original, huge numbers for the sequel, and not well received by critics. That movie anyway still made over 400M. I don't think TF2 will break that mark, I would say 380-390 million are more realistic.

@JAB: It doesn't sound like you know a lot of people.

@Garrett: I second that.

Dead Mans Chest had the benefit of not having a Public Enemies, IA3, Bruno, and another blockbuster franchise in Potter opening after it. Transformers will struggle to get to 400mil, if it even gets there. As for word of mouth, we'll see what it really says of Transformers in the coming weeks.The movie is now at B+ with Yahoo users, and it started at a solid A when it opened and fell to A- in about a day.