Actually the budget for Year One is $75 million. Box Office Mojo is incorrect. Plus there have been advertisements everywhere so the marketing is also a crutch.

Based only on the weekend, it might clear $89-90 million–$95 if word of mouth doesn't hurt it, not like it will mwa-ha-ha. It's probably going to have a big midnight showing and opening day, but it's safe to say that The Dark Knight's records are safe for a while.

It's funny, some people on IMDB are claiming that Revenge of the Fallen will beat Titanic in domestic returns.

I'm going with $91 million for the weekend, and I think it will have a gigantic Wednesday/Tuesday midnignts and then start to trail off as the weekend goes. Being the first blockbuster since, well, Terminator means a lot of great things for the film. I don't see it beating Titanic overall, but it certainly has a shot at being a $300+ million movie. I also feel it will be the only one of the summer.

I don't understand the summer release of My Sister's Keeper. It seems too maudlin to be a summer film. I have a sneaky suspicion that it could be the funniest unintentional comedy of 2009. I was rolling my eyes just watching the trailer, I can imagine what the whole movie will be like. Am I wrong, or does depressing never work for the summer? The Proposal and The Hangover will get those non-Transformers dollars. As far as the recession leading people to the movies, I just don't see people escaping the recession by seeing something about kids dying of cancer. That would be like me breaking up with my fiance, and my friends cheering me up by taking me to one of those slaughterhouses from Food, Inc.

1. Transformers – $91M
2. The Hangover – $20M
3. The Proposal – $19.5M
4. Up – $14M
5. My Sister's Keeper – $12.5M

I wouldn't trust predictors on IMDB, while Ropesofsilicon is populated by only the very best in the film watching industry, IMDB excepts any old thing.

I think Bay said he was expecting 175 million over the 5 day period, but I'd say around 100 million over the 5 day period, about 80-90 mill being the weekend, I really can't imagine many of the mainstream audience going out of there way to watch during the week when the weekend is a few days away.

Though their are being comparasins made between RotF and The Phantom Menace (Mudflap and Skids being called Jar Jar Bink time 2) so as said, I wouldn't count on word of mouth too much.

I say $96 million weekend for Revenge of the Fallen, and about $160 million over the 5-day period. It'll be interesting to see whether it hits $400M by the end of its run or not.

As for the others…

The Proposal – $19-21 million
The Hangover – $20 million
Up – $14-15 million
My Sister's Keeper – $11 million
Year One – $9 million

@EnglishGavz: Oh yeah I know, it's just really funny/pathetic seeing the ignorance of some people. Some of the message boards on that site are the definition of filth. Not like this site, where actual discussions about movies are held.

Laremy,

I don't know if it was a typo, but you wrote UP's P&A was $25M, when I think you meant to type $125M, which is how much studios are spending these days on P&A.

The LA Times recently wrote that Paramount was planning on spending $150-175M on Transformers II P&A. I'm sure that was the US + International cost. (The studio claims Transformers II cost $195M to produce, which I think is BS. It's closer to $250M. Add to that P&A and you got a $400M price tag. Yikes. But I don't wanna digress.)

Most big-budget studio summer releases cost that much to print and advertise. Back in 1997, Fox spent $110M on Titanic P&A, and that included the amount they spent to promote it before and after the Academy Awards.

I was right about the TOP 5 of the weekend… just cudnt get the collections right..

As for Transformers, it crosses $100mil in the weekend… % day period should be $160+ millon

Transformers 2 will be huge. Unfortunately…
I'll stick with Michael Bay's prediction: around $175 million for the 5 days. The lowest being $150 million.
Word of mouth will crush this, but I still think it could reach $400 million domestic and something close to $1 billion worldwide.

Yes, I said that.
A Michael Bay adaption of a toy line being on the top 10 of all time box-office.

The apocalypse is here.

We're halfway into summer, and we already have five $100M hits: Wolverine, Terminator, Angels & Demons, Night at the Museum, and The Proposal (will get there eventually).

Three $200M hits: Up, Star Trek, and The Hangover.

And the following have the potential to make $100M+: Transformers, Harry Potter, Public Enemies, Bruno, Ice Age, G-Force, Funny People, GI Joe, Julie & Julia, and The Ugly Truth.

Year One dropped hard Sat and Sun. An 8.5 mil Friday opening and it barely broke 20mil and that number might not even hold up (we'll see with the actuals tomorrow). Obviously, the word of mouth proliferated like crazy and the moviegoing public turned their attention to the Proposal and/or a repeat viewing of UP and Hangover. UP, Hangover, and NatM2 could all increase a bit come tomorrow depending on the Fathers Day turnout at the B.O.

As for next weekend

Transformers:

Wed= 58mil (15mil midnights, 43mil for the regular theater hours)
Thur=30mil

Fri to Sun official 3-day opening weekend= 92mil
first 5-days=180mil

Proposal=22.3mil
The Hangover=15mil
UP=14mil
Year One=10mil

Sadly ROTF will most likely make $110 million opening weekend and $165 million over 5 days. Will it beat the first one at the box office? Yes. Will it top $400 million? Doubt it, word of mouth isn't nearly as strong (100% the week before Transformers' release versus the 38% for ROTF on RT.) plus with Public Enemies, Ice Age, Bruno, Funny People and Harry Potter (My guess for the #1 movie of 2009.) coming out this month and with Up and The Hangover's amazing word of mouth, its much more crowded.
As for My Sister's Keeper… $10 million most likely.

@EnglishGavz: My cousins in Japan saw Transformers 2 already. They mentioned that it felt a lot like The Phantom Menace (which for me iisn't really a ringing endorsement), and the movie actually did double the Jar-Jar Binks factor with those new twin autobot characters. Overall, they said it was action packed to the point that it got rather messy and too busy, many of the laughs and comedy were either forced and/or juvenile, but, they were entertained for the most part.

I think Transformers will have around 75mil combined over Wed and Thurs, and it will just manage to hit 100mil and change over the Fri-Sun period. The early release will take way too much wind out of it's sails which will keep it from opening to anywhere north of 130mil in it's opening weekend. I see around 175mil first 5-days

Am I the only one who has never even seen the first Transformer movie? Will this movie really make more then it did on a July 4th weekend?

TF2 needs to do all it can in its first 5-days. Because if WOM is at all bad (at this point I think it will be), audiences are going to treat it like every other sequel this summer and more or less abandon it. But this the #1 option for countless people this year, and will at least open huge. Proposal will be strong counter programing, Hangover will have a mild speed bump in its ridiculous run while serving as a backup option for Transformers sellouts, Up will remain on its course to 300m, Year One will crash and burn, and My Sister's Keeper will be DOA.

1. Robots in Disguise 2: 102.3m/178.8m 5-day
2. The Proposal: 21.8m (-36%)
3. The Hangover: 15.9m (-41%)
4. Up: 13m (-39%)
5. My Sister's Keeper: 9.3m
6. Year One: 7.8m (-61%) (have not seen WOM this bad since Love Guru)

Huh. Strong number for Proposal, very middling number for Year One. I think all the movies will be hurt next week given the size of Transformers 2, although the blow won't be to bad if word of mouth catches up to Transformers 2 before the weekend arrives. Early predictions:

1. Transformers 2- $105 million (plus an additional $39 million Wednesday and $22 million Thursday for a 5 day total of $166 million)
2. The Proposal- $19 million
3. The Hangover- $18 million
4. Up- $14 million
5. Year One- $9 million

Outside the top 5-
My Sister's Keeper- $7 million

Everyone will take a hit when Transformers 2 hits this week, but those films that have glowing word of mouth (Up, Hangover, Proposal) will be able to thread water better than those with atrocious word of mouth (Year One, Land of the Lost..). Once the initial onslaught of Transformers is done, films with the great word of mouth will resume holding strong at the box office. Word of mouth has been the story of the summer so far. Good movies are showing longevity, while the bad are being abandoned immediately after it's opening weekend.

So what exactly is the budget oF RotF, it can make 6 figures on its opening weekend but that'll only help if it has a reachable profit margin, the normal summer budgets are anywhere between 150-200 mill at the moment but this thing is being advertised bloody everywhere! I've yet to watch a channel where I haven't seen an advert.

Transformers: 94.6
but it will make big dollars wed and thurs

First of all, Land of the Lost was horrible film making and I am glad it is doing so horrible.
Second, Transformers will reach the $100 million mark over the 5 day period, but the weekend will be lower than $87 million, because it is summertime and like you said, people are itching for a mind-blowing action scenes, and Megan Fox lookin all sexy on that chopper.

I see Transformers:Revenge of the Fallen doing about $65.1 on (WED) Opening Day for the 2nd best ever opening day. and then on Thurs about $48.5 Million and for the Weekend about $135 Million. So for the 5-Day about $250 Million

TF2: No doubt $95+ mil for the opening 3 days. Well over $150+ mil come Monday/Tuesday. I'm gonna say $105mil.

Top June Opening Weekend is HP3 at $93.6 mil, you can count it has that record.

I think people are being a tad bit too negative on TF2. Don't get me wrong, I'm not chalking it up to snobbery but the critics were ALWAYS going to bash this film. Michael Bay is the guy who publicly announced that Bad Boys II was a giant middle finger to critics.

Bottom line, I don't think bad WOM should even be brought up until we see the film itself and (hopefully this isn't the case) are utterly mega-disappointed with the film. But to people on here who are doubting: how could you honestly after that very first SuperBowl TV spot?

The rest:
2.) Proposal – $22.5mil
3.) Hangover – $16.7mil
4.) Up – $15mil
5.) Year One – $12mil

I can't see My Sister's Keeper doing more than $7.5 mil. Funny but true metaphor on CheckSpot's part. Heck, Pelham might even finish 6th ahead of it. I'm thinking My Sister's Keeper is doomed.

@On2slaught:

No offense to you my man, but "Transformers 2" will not beat "The Dark Knight" in 5 day totals- it took 5 days for TDK to clear $200 million, and that's with spectacular word of mouth. I think Raichu's numbers are more doable, but the film'll crash soon after. Sure, it'll be the top movie of the year, but more by default than anything.

Also…why is "My Sister's Keeper" coming out now, hell, why is it coming out at all? What's the audience for this movie? I know it's a film by the director of "The Notebook" (which is a sacred film in girl circles, believe me), but I can't think of anyone who'd want to watch it. If I were a girl, i'd much rather watch a Sandra Bullock comedy, robots fighting each other, or an old man and a fat kid in a balloon house than see *spoiler alert* kids dying from cancer and *spoiler alert…as long as the film adheres to the book the book* a girl getting killed in a violent car accident. It might have its audience, since every film does better in the summer, but…all I ask is why?

i got back from the proposal about an hour ago and even as a guy i have to admit i enjoyed a lot more than i expected to it was really funny

and also i say transformers $102.6 for the whole weekend

Kind of missed the boat on The Proposal this weekend. At least we all know we'll be getting the top film correct this week. Onto the predictions:

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – 91.9 million
2. The Hangover – 21.4 million
3. The Proposal 21.2 million
4. Up – 14.7 million
5. My Sister's Keeper – 8.0 million
6. Year One – 7.8 million

Transformers will not beat TDK because no one that was part of the film died like Heath (RIP).the film was good but, alot of people I know admitted they went to see it only to see Heath in his last film (which of course, is false, because his last film comes out later this year) .Transformers will not beat $158,411,483 in 3 days, maybe not even in 5.

It's a shame Transformers 2 isn't opening on Friday. If it did, It could have easily reached $145M+ over the 3-day weekend.

However, since it is opening on Wednesday, I will say $105M 3-day and $170M over 5-days.

Transformers 2 will probably perform a lot like Spider-Man 3. It will have an eye-popping opening, but it will be forgotten by the time Harry Potter comes out.

i dont understand why people think word of mouth will crush ROTF. I didn't love the first one, but everyone else did. Hence there being a huge anticipation for this one. This looks like more of the same, so I think general audiences will love it. There is a energy surrounding this one.

@chewbaca69:

Nah, it's like the first "Pirates" movie. I know people who hated it, and the general consensus was that it was an awesome popcorn flick (which I agree with). Then a couple years later, a sequel comes around that I'm not excited for (considering I loved the first film) and yet it opens huge and becomes the biggest movie of the year and one of the top 5 grossing movies of all time. Yet…it is not well-loved. That's how I feel (like almost exactly) with "Transformers"- here was a surprise film that was awesome at the time, yet it was never truly necessary to follow it up. Yet it'll still do well because there's this huge audience that feels a bit obligated to see the new film, just because the first one was good or so on.

Oh and It'll drop like a rock after this opening, I'm sure of it. The only reason "Transformers 1" did so well was because it was a Michael Bay film that somehow didn't completely suck, so people were surprised that *gasp* it was actually entertaining. This is more of the same, but bigger, louder, and two years later, which might not be as awesome as it might sound.

@Vince: You would be surprised how easy it is to please general audiences. I actually remember people loving the second Pirates (myself included) because it was just fun, and I think it did okay considering the third still made over 300 million. I just have a strong feeling this movie is going to be huge. Plus, people know what they expect in this movie, which is robots fighting, and I have a feeling they will get it. One person should come foreward and say they are not going to see this film at some point. Im predicting 175 over the first five days, and a 400+ total gross easy.

the best bullock box office opening ever? i think it more to do with ryan reynolds, fresh off the deadpool success, besides women love that guy, my girl friend has watched definitely maybe a million times already. now shes waiting for the blu ray, i hope that doesnt happen.

Hi,
Living in the UK I have already seen Transformers 2 (twice), it' quite odd having seen it before you guys in the U.S.A.
It has been packed out here, I saw it at 10.20am the first time and even that was packed!
I have read various quite different reviews, some love it, some only like it, I loved it, pure fun, large scale everything, and a few twists…
Hope you all go and see it.
Regards,
Malcolm.

@Eli: You have Year One grossing $12M next weekend. That a drop of less than 50%. There's no way it will have a drop less than 50%. It will be more than that. WOM is poor. It can't happen.

83.4M 3 day weekend
Yeah, Wed and Thu will bleed.

About 18M Wed, and 16M Thu

Final Domestic 294M
Final Worldwide 707M

Transformers 2
Wed: 55mil (including midnights)
Thurs: 32mil

Fri-Sun opening weekend: 96mil
Around 183mil first 5-days.

Transformers will open big, but there are plenty of other solid movies out there right now that even though they will take hits from Transformers 2 to varying degrees, they will manage to do well also. Proposal will attract women, Hangover will still be attracting plenty of guys, and UP will still attract the families with very young kinds that are much to young for the live-action carnage of Transformers.

Also, I don't think Transformers 2 will break 400mil despite the big opening 5-days it'll get. In 2006, Dead Man's Chest had no more MEGA blockbusters coming after it so it had a wide open field to 400mil. Transformers 2 has Public Enemies and Ice Age 3 next weekend already, then Bruno, then Potter 6 and so on. I think Transformers will be finish around 350mil domestic. Whether it goes higher will depend on whether it gets good or bad word of mouth. Glowing word of mouth has been the driving force for Trek, Up, and Hangover, and we've seen what happened to the earlier presumed blockbusters as a result of their bad word of mouth.