31 weekends are in the books; this was the 8th worst weekend of the year. The last time things looked this bleak it was April. So what happened? Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
Wow. I didn't think I would end up under. This film actually opened higher than 40 Year Old Virgin, and that one ended up at $177m worldwide. But it couldn't match Knocked Up's $10k per screen. I think it was an issue of marketing. They lost all those who wanted pure comedy … and didn't get enough who liked drama. It's not an awful result, it's just not a great one given some Universal projections had it in the healthy $30m range.
Result: 23.4 million (My rank: #1, $3.7m off)
IMAX. That's what got me here. It only fell 40 percent because those IMAX dollars rolled in, that's probably ten percent of the $17m right there.
Result: 17.7 million (My rank: #3, $2.7m off)
Four of the top ten films this weekend were rated PG. It's paradise out there for parents. Well, besides the guinea pig thing I mean.
Result: 17.0 million (My rank: #2, $.9m off)
Alert commenter Sebastian was closest on The Ugly Truth, he was at $12.7m. Most of us were over, and for good reason, as this was the biggest dropper of the weekend by a wide margin. Word of mouth must have been dismal.
Result: 13.0 million (My rank: #4, $1.7m off)
Okay, why was I so far over? Is it all marketing? Clearly, kids will see anything, so why did this get left behind? I can only surmise no one knew it was out. How they could afford 3,100 theaters remains a mystery.
Result: 7.8 million (My rank: #5, $4.6m off)
A delightful prognostication. This one still has an outside shot at $40m domestically.
Result: 7.2 million (My rank: #6, $0.2m off)
It will hit $700m worldwide at some point this week. It's still a hefty $100m behind Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen for the 2009 crown though.
Result: 5.3 million (My rank: #10, $1.8m off)
Right now Warner Bros has three titles in the top ten worldwide, including The Hangover. Fox has three. Paramount/Dreamworks has two. Sony has one, Paramount one. Universal doesn't have much shot to crack the top ten based upon their current slate. Buena Vista will need A Christmas Carol or The Princess in the Frog to come through. So, without looking at production budgets it looks like WB, Fox, and Dreamworks have had a nice year.
Result: 5.0 million (My rank: #7, $.6m off)
I had it falling nearly 27 percent. It actually fell 24 percent. I'm not going to beat myself up over a measly three percent.
Result: 4.8 million (My rank: #8, $.7m off)
When we went to press I had 2,400 theaters penciled in but Michael Bay's masterpiece had a rollicking 2,626 when the smoke cleared. So it was one of those deals where it actually fell more than I predicted (percentage-wise) but the extra theaters helped it beat my dollar amount. Weird, eh?
Result: 4.6 million (My rank: #9, $.8m off)
Any surprises for you? Did you go to the movies, or were you part of the apparently large crowd that stayed home? Will Apatow be forced into more obvious comedy from here on out? Many questions abound, drop an egg of knowledge on us.