Filed under: Box-Office News

Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jul. 31 – Aug. 2, 2009

Funny People took the crown but it was very slow going at the cinema.

31 weekends are in the books; this was the 8th worst weekend of the year. The last time things looked this bleak it was April. So what happened? Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
Wow. I didn't think I would end up under. This film actually opened higher than 40 Year Old Virgin, and that one ended up at $177m worldwide. But it couldn't match Knocked Up's $10k per screen. I think it was an issue of marketing. They lost all those who wanted pure comedy … and didn't get enough who liked drama. It's not an awful result, it's just not a great one given some Universal projections had it in the healthy $30m range.
Result: 23.4 million (My rank: #1, $3.7m off)
IMAX. That's what got me here. It only fell 40 percent because those IMAX dollars rolled in, that's probably ten percent of the $17m right there.
Result: 17.7 million (My rank: #3, $2.7m off)
Four of the top ten films this weekend were rated PG. It's paradise out there for parents. Well, besides the guinea pig thing I mean.
Result: 17.0 million (My rank: #2, $.9m off)
Alert commenter Sebastian was closest on The Ugly Truth, he was at $12.7m. Most of us were over, and for good reason, as this was the biggest dropper of the weekend by a wide margin. Word of mouth must have been dismal.
Result: 13.0 million (My rank: #4, $1.7m off)
Okay, why was I so far over? Is it all marketing? Clearly, kids will see anything, so why did this get left behind? I can only surmise no one knew it was out. How they could afford 3,100 theaters remains a mystery.
Result: 7.8 million (My rank: #5, $4.6m off)
A delightful prognostication. This one still has an outside shot at $40m domestically.
Result: 7.2 million (My rank: #6, $0.2m off)
It will hit $700m worldwide at some point this week. It's still a hefty $100m behind Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen for the 2009 crown though.
Result: 5.3 million (My rank: #10, $1.8m off)
Right now Warner Bros has three titles in the top ten worldwide, including The Hangover. Fox has three. Paramount/Dreamworks has two. Sony has one, Paramount one. Universal doesn't have much shot to crack the top ten based upon their current slate. Buena Vista will need A Christmas Carol or The Princess in the Frog to come through. So, without looking at production budgets it looks like WB, Fox, and Dreamworks have had a nice year.
Result: 5.0 million (My rank: #7, $.6m off)
I had it falling nearly 27 percent. It actually fell 24 percent. I'm not going to beat myself up over a measly three percent.
Result: 4.8 million (My rank: #8, $.7m off)
When we went to press I had 2,400 theaters penciled in but Michael Bay's masterpiece had a rollicking 2,626 when the smoke cleared. So it was one of those deals where it actually fell more than I predicted (percentage-wise) but the extra theaters helped it beat my dollar amount. Weird, eh?
Result: 4.6 million (My rank: #9, $.8m off)

Any surprises for you? Did you go to the movies, or were you part of the apparently large crowd that stayed home? Will Apatow be forced into more obvious comedy from here on out? Many questions abound, drop an egg of knowledge on us.


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Post #1
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Nice comments LL; You're right, FP was just marketed incorrectly to both the comedy and drama seeking crowds. But I saw that Brad listed FP as an oscar best picture contender, but its still early. I stayed home because of term papers, ugh. Next week is looking boring though. G.I. Joe looks like the live action remake of Team America: World Police. Still it'll come on top because it satisfies the the action seeking crowd.

G.I. Joe ———- $40.8 mil (Mummy Tomb of the Dragon Emperor type money)
Julie and Julia — $13.8 mil (6k per theater)
HP6 ————– $11.6 mil (35% drop)
G-Force ——— $10.2 mil
Funny People — $9.4 mil (60% drop)

- Anonymous' Friend
( August 2nd, 2009 | 1:51 pm )
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Post #2
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Hmm didn't expect this, but hopefully FP will have legs because Uni really needs some kind of hit this Summer. However PE is at $93mill domestic and will probably finish at around $98 to $100mill. On a $100 mill budget that's not bad at all, but I don't understand how people call it a flop. It maybe somewhat dissapointing, but thats what happens when you open a serious epic crime drama in the summer. Plus with the growing overseas gross it should actually turn into quite a profit when all is said and done. AS for next week it will be pretty interesting to see how much G.I. J will make with all the negative buzz, but it is getting positive reviews so far and tracking has been solid and it's expected to open with as much as $60mill or higher. I'm actually more interested in when D9 finally comes out and how it will do though.

- wrongturn687
( August 2nd, 2009 | 3:14 pm )
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Post #3
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Was I ever off on Aliens, not very good at this, but 31K theaters and you can't get double digits is a joke. Was right Funny People was not going as high as expected.

Curious about G.I Joe, the advertising budget is huge, they must have a lot of toys to sell on the self I guess.

- Steve
( August 2nd, 2009 | 5:22 pm )
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Post #4
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3,100 theaters I mean. I forgot to mention G.I Joe has a perfect weekend with no competition.

- Steve
( August 2nd, 2009 | 5:27 pm )
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Post #5
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gi joe will destroy all in it's path

- Justin Casey
( August 2nd, 2009 | 5:46 pm )
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Post #6
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Also briefly on Orphan I'm kinda glad it still has some legs. I saw the movie last week and enjoyed the hell out of it. It's not nearly as crappy as it looks from the previews and if there are any horror fans on this board you should deffentially check it out. It's also the BEST movie Dark Castle has ever put out.

- wrongturn687
( August 2nd, 2009 | 6:37 pm )
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Post #7
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@Steve: no competition, gonna lose the girls to julie & julia and some people to the horror/thriller a perfect getaway, and paper heart limited opens

- jeremy wein
( August 2nd, 2009 | 6:51 pm )
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Post #8
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Negative buzz? As of right now the film has an 86% approval rating on rotten tomatoes. Imagine if it maintained good reviews and wound up with 60 to 70 million. That would really bring box-office back up.

- Colin
( August 2nd, 2009 | 10:16 pm )
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Post #9
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@wrongturn687: See last weeks discussion. Even if Public Enemies eventually makes money with the TV rights, Universal will not be happy. Fair or not they count on films from stars like Johnny Depp to help pay for big time money losers like Land of the Lost.

Looks like G-force will beat Bolt domestically, but I think it won't play as well overseas.

- Pumice Miner
( August 2nd, 2009 | 11:44 pm )
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Post #10
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GI Joe is actually pulling in good reviews so far, and while it is probably better than Transformers, I imagine it'll pull that kind of audience as well as the kids.

- EnglishGavz
( August 3rd, 2009 | 1:16 am )
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Post #11
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@EnglishGavz: Yeah, but they're reviews for select audiences. The film is not being screened for all press. For example, no press screening prior to release here in Seattle.

- Brad Brevet
( August 3rd, 2009 | 1:46 am )
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Post #12
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Would have loved if The Hurt Locker or 500 Days of Summer had cracked the top ten. Oh, well. There's always next week. I just had a feeling that these two films could be critical AND populist hits.

- John O'Neil
( August 3rd, 2009 | 2:02 am )
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Post #13
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@wrongturn687:

Here's the thing about "Public Enemies"; it isn't so much a flop as it is a big disappointment for the studio. The teaming of Johnny Depp & Christian Bale (according to Universal, I believe) should've made a bigger splash. Success has been mined by these noir-ish gangster dramas in the past ("Road to Perdition", "Collateral") and the big-stars should've equaled bigger box office. But it came up short. Yes, it'll make its production budget, but when you count in the promotion figures, it'll take brisk DVD/TV sales for the film to be in the black.

Well, at least "Fast & Furious" did well enough for them.

- Vince
( August 3rd, 2009 | 12:53 pm )
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Post #14
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@Brad Brevet: Be honest. How many critics do you think would actually watch GI Joe with an open mind as opposed to spending the two hours thinking of which negative adjectives to use so that their quote ends up on IMDB news?

- GregM
( August 3rd, 2009 | 6:02 pm )
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Post #15
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@GregM: Obviously, I would hope all of them, but I am sure you are right. I actually already bought tickets and there is a group of us heading to a midnight screening. Going to be enjoying some drinks and eats beforehand so not sure I will be doing an official review, but I am actually looking forward to it.

- Brad Brevet
( August 3rd, 2009 | 6:26 pm )
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Post #16
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@Brad Brevet: Ahh, I was wondering how the $57.50 added up. Enjoy!

- GregM
( August 3rd, 2009 | 7:10 pm )
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Post #17
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In international news, I was looking at the Harry Potter numbers in Norway. Then I looked at other movie's Norway box office. Their large Country Fund seems to be paying off. They're spending more than $1/week per person (the ENTIRE population!) This is more than anyone else. I say we should make more films about Vikings! :) How about Harry Potter and the Viking King, or Transformers vs. the Norse Gods!

I tried to say something not entirely positive about the G.I. Joe movie at work, and people defended it right away, so it will probably do well.

- Pumice Miner
( August 3rd, 2009 | 8:18 pm )
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Post #18
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GregM, DEAD-ON about critics behaving that way. Yes, we'll all tend to have our own personal opinions about any film going in, but sometimes critics just aren't objective enough and they won't be with films like G.I. Joe. But you never know. I'm personally stoked for G.I. Joe and hitting up the midnight.

Slightly disappointed with Funny People's underwhelming opening. I hear it's the smallest opening number for a box office champ since Yes Man, back last December. Sure it didn't open as high as it, but it damn well deserves to gross higher than Bruno.

- Eli
( August 4th, 2009 | 12:11 am )
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Post #19
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G.I. Joe will be a bomb on Portugal (my country), just like Star Trek

On EUA, this is my previsions:

1º- G.I. Joe: $45M
2º- Funny People: $14M
3º- HP 6: $10,5M
4º- G-Force: $10,1M
5º- Julie and Julia: $8,9M

- Jonh-PT
( August 4th, 2009 | 1:48 pm )
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Post #20
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They don't even call it G.I. Joe overseas, do they? In England it's called Action Man.

- Pumice Miner
( August 4th, 2009 | 4:29 pm )
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