Just when we thought HP6 would have a significantly bigger opening then #5. It would have been deserved too; HP6 was a vast improvement on #5, which I personally think is the weakest (sorry Brad, haha).

4.) Bruno: $8,374,000 –> -72.7% –> 2nd weekend
5.) The Hangover: $8,315,000 –> -16.3% –> 7th weekend

Nuff. Freakin'. Said. Bruno is dead.

It's a bad sign when macho dudes and their girlfriends are coming up to me when working Box Office and would rather get tickets to The Proposal because they heard Bruno was "way too homo".

Harry Potter 6 will probably drop as hard as HP5.
Something around 55-60%.

It still can reach 1 billion if the international dollars are strong as they usually are for the series.
HP5 did 940 miilion worldwide. Maybe HP6 can do 'just' 60m more?

Anyway, 900 million is certain.
So there's a very strong chance that Harry Potter will top Transformers 2 worldwide.
But it won't do that in the US. Sadly, for the americans.
Is like Mamma Mia being the year highest grosser or something… =P

I'm gonna throw out a couple numbers for next week.

Potter's gonna win while a couple of newcomers will open right under it.

"G-Force" could do around $27-30 million, maybe even better. I'm feeling the same hype as I did when "Beverly Hills Chihuahua" opened last year. This one has better marketing, more appeal to boys, and 3D showings which is the hip, new thing this year. However, it has huge competition from "Harry" which is why it's opening in the high 20's/low 30's range. It could surprise and go higher (much higher) though.

I won't get into my diatribe about "The Ugly Truth"; I'll just say that even though it's still banking money, "The Proposal" is getting a bit old, so there needs to be a new date movie. But I'm not so sure that this is the right one- I'm thinking $19-21 million (at best) opening; it could do $60 million if word of mouths alright, but it'll disappoint as a big summer comedy.

"Orphan" looks horrendous- even worse than "Truth" and "G-Force" combined. No stars, a terrible trailer, no hype- even though horror fans haven't had their fill since "Drag Me to Hell" (and that's a stretch), they aren't that desperate to see this one. If it does better than $5 million I'll be surprised.

Why do some movies open on a Wednesday? It's seems kinda stupid since it draws from the possible higher grosses on the weekend…

Keep in mind, I'm speaking 3-day openings regarding HP5 vs. HP6.

Now next weekend, expect Orphan to bomb and fall short of the Top 5. No big stars, late/weak marketing, and if I'd bet, I'd say they won't screen for critics.

G-Force will finish a strong second to HP6 because a) it's Disney, b) it's 3D, c) enough families have already seen Ice Age 3/Up. So maybe $35-37m (higher than Beverly Hills Chihuahua but lower than Alvin and the Chipmunks, among similar movies).

The Ugly Truth shouldn't have too hard a time cracking the Top 5, which isn't saying much. Raising star power with Heigl/Butler and what seems to be a more tolerable plot compared to other romantic comedies, but an R-rating. Maybe $18m?

@Eric: Because the fanatics will go any day of the week. Get the people that want to see it first in the seats on Wed/Thur and clear up the theatres for the casual movie goers who just want to see a movie, any movie, on a Fri/Sat.

Sadly the American filmgoing public will most likely continue to take their crazy pills and G-Force will probably be #1 with $35 million. The Ugly Truth should also do well with about $23 million and Orphan… $7 million tops.
Now on a more positive note (500) of Summer made over $31,000 per screen this weekend, so who wants to guess it will be Fox Searchlight's 3rd $100 million plus grosser?
P.S Who else thinks its weird that the most hated major film studio controls one of the most consistent indie studios?

Again, I will go with my theory if a rom-com gets a sneak preview the weekend before, it's not bad, so "Ugly" will be close to $30M, even with the R. You did not see a preview of "Ghost of Girlfriends Past" or "New in Town" did you?

And "Orphan" has had enough controversy/free advertising to make double digits,or close to it.

Damn, that's a harsh drop from Bruno… I thought I was too lofty on my 71% dip. I actually enjoyed this film, so why this film is so unpopular bamboozles me… is America just uncomfortable with a film centered around a flamboyant homosexual? Did everyone just think that this was outright bad movie? Or is there something I'm missing?

I can see why Harry Potter 6 didn't hit $80 million, though. In the summer, days of the week don't really matter… no work or anything. So some of the family audiences probably came out to it on Wed. or Thu., while most of the fans rushed out in that same time period too. Still, $160 million in 5 days is nothing to scoff at. I still think it will hit that $300 million mark; it outgrossed the fifth Harry Potter's gross in 5 days by nearly precisely $20 million, and that installment fell just $8 million short.

Anyways, word of mouth definitely seems better for this movie, so it should have a smaller drop. Somewhere in the 50% range sounds sensible. Early predictions:

1. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince- $39 million
2. G-Force- $29 million
3. The Ugly Truth- $20 million
4. Orphan- $17 million
5. Ice Age 3- $11 million
6. Transformers 2- $7 million
7. The Hangover- $6 million
8. The Proposal- $4.5 million
9. Public Enemies- $4 million
10. Bruno- $4 million

1. HP6- $34.5 million
2. G-Force $ 30.1 million
3. Ugly Truth- $24.5 million
4. Orphan – $20.6 million

Harry Potter has had mixed WOM, with that said, the last film dropped 57% after its first weekend, and i think the drop will be similar. Still dont believe this Potter is the best of the franchise.

@John Debono:

Yeah I do find that ironic, but then again Sony's indie division has had a few gems as well, and the main studio is not one of my favorites, to say the least.

Not so sure about "500 Days of Summer" breaking the $100 million mark unless it gets Oscar hype. "Juno" was a fairly accessible teen comedy, and "Slumdog" was close to being a phenomenon but it too had far more accessibility than "Summer"- I think it looks amazing, and I'll see it, but it looks a bit too out there for the general public.

hp6 396 million worldwide

I think we can expect G-Force to be pretty big. With the combo of 3-D, Disney, and Bruckheimer, I'm seeing it take the number one spot. I know this will surprise people, but I'm thinking it could hit $50M. Why? I think this one could be the choice for families. It's 3-D which has been doing well thanks to increased ticket sales, plus it's not as dark as Harry Potter, and it's got the action element that gets young boys who have already seen Harry Potter, or were too frightened for that movie but wants some action.

Ugly Truth will do $22M thanks mainly to the sneak preview theorem that was proposed. It's getting a lot of good publicity and as long as Katherine Heigl can be kept from talking this week, it should do decent business. Not Proposal sized business, but a solid mid-level hit, around $65 – $70M.

Orphan doesn't really appeal to me, and I'm a huge horror fan. Feels a little been there done that. And if Drag Me to Hell can have trouble even with a name director, I don't know how the R-rated Orphan could do better. I see $9M for this one.

Harry Potter will drop to second, taking a 55% drop. Seems to be the norm for front-loaded films. It's a hard call since it will have a few more IMAX screens. But I don't know if IMAX is proving to be that much of a draw since most theaters aren't true IMAX screen and not worth the price upgrade in my opinion. Though I don't know if a nation agrees with me. They didn't on Transformers 2 after all. I see $36M for HP6. Ice Age will take the 50% plunge down to just over $8M since it's losing 3-D theaters. Bruno will be almost completely gone, maybe finish around $4M just at number 10.

Wow, I didn't expect Potter to be THAT frontloaded. I'm really torn as to how big or small a drop it will have next weekend. Potter's built in audience (those who have combed through the books with a fine tooth comb multiple times) can always be counted on for repeat viewings, but it seems like the reaction they have to this movie is mixed to leaning negative at best. My friends and co-workers who are avid fans did not like HBP at all, and It is reflected by many fans in several of the Potter fansites I've checked for fan feedback. I think the drop will fall somewhere between 55-60%

Despite the crappiness of the movie, I hope it still has legs. And I foresee only a standard 50% drop for next weekend. I want to see J.K. Rowling's work do well compared to Transformers anyway.

Hey Brad, why no True Blood review this week? I thought this week's show was ok. As always the Bill and Sookie parts are getting exceedingly droll which brings me to question how the Globes can give an award to Paquin when I don't think she's that good of an actress, and the fact that BSG never won anything there…

Award shows, go figure…

@Anonymous' Friend: Sorry, HBO didn't send out a screener and I don't subscribe to the channel. They keep telling me they don't know when the next batch will be sent out, but it looks like this will be just like last year where I am only able to give you advance reviews for the first four episodes. Sorry.

@Brad Brevet: Oh ok. Well, I don't have to tell you there are other ways to watch the episode even if you don't subscribe to the channel. But you didn't miss much but my favorite part was when Eric's much-guessed background was finally revealed as well as who his maker was.

I think you should create a list of the most anticipated return of t.v. shows. Mine would start with Dexter, House, Lost, and Legend of the Seeker.

Next weekend:

1. HP 6 – $32-33 million
2. G-Force – $26-28 million
3. The Ugly Truth – $22-24 million
4. Ice Age 3 -$9-10 million
5. The Orphan – $8-9 million

This weekend, Half-Blood surprisingly underperformed, and right now even its chance at $300 miliion domestic is very thin; if it falls 60% or harder next weekend, it could even finish third behind Up, which is on its way to $290-295 million. Even The Hangover has a chance to do better eventually with $270+ million. It's really funny, I mean, even a couple of months ago, who on earth could have thought that The Hangover actually has a chance to beat Harry Potter. Lol…

As for the others, Bruno fell even harder than I thought (I predicted 69% drop), The Proposal performed great once again, and it's on its way to $160+ million total. It looks like Public Enemies won't even hit $110 million, which is a shame.

Awwwwww… I saw during the weekdays that Bruno would have a huge drop (60%+ or more), but it still doesn't make it any less disappointing now that it's happened. It was a really great film. The second time I went I took my sister, and she had a riot; she wants to see it again and bring her best friend (a male). She is having a real hard time understanding how a movie she loved so much is dropping so quickly. That's also how it was with Watchmen. She loved it too (and hadn't even read the graphic novel beforehand) and was sad to hear that it dropped so quickly in the BO. But then again, she's adventurous in her tastes, and it's always the adventurous R-rated movies that get hit hardest by the in-the-box mainstream moviegoers. :(

I hope HP6 holds better than 5. So far it isn't, but that may just be because of its huge opening day and the burning off of demand. But it IS better than 5… and 4 and 2 and 1. But not 3. And sadly, despite HP3 being the best of the lot, it had the worst holds… probably because fans were mad that it wasn't "faithful" enough (though in essence it was by far the most faithful). Will this be yet another case of the daring film getting the shaft from a non-daring audience? *sob*

At least "The Hangover" is doing well. Do you guys realize that by now it's the third-highest R-rated film domestically… of all time? Only "The Passion of the Christ" and "Matrix Reloaded" have it beat. And don't start talking about adjusted gross, because films #4 and 5 ("Beverly Hills Cop" and "The Exorcist") were made 20 and 30 years ago when there was no such thing as DVD, and people went to the theaters a lot more frequently. For the most part, advances in home video technology has made the concept of adjusted numbers an unnecessary action. Titanic is still more of a phenomenon than "Gone With the Wind," no matter what the adjusted-fans will say. But sometimes a movie does so well that even the adjusted fans can't knock it. Like "Star Trek," for instance, which has done the nigh-impossible and sold more tickets than any other film in its franchise. It's very rare that a second sequel or beyond can do that.

Some weird International news: Fast & Furious, Wolverine, Terminator, and Star Trek all ended up doing about the same worldwide. About 350-375 Million.

JM: When I was younger, I certainly went to my share of R rated movies. But, over the years, I got more and more tired of Hollywood pushing sex and drugs down my throat like a sermon. Pretending there are no consequences. I've seen plenty of consequences. So, I'm not going to like Bruno. I couldn't even recommend Transformers for that reason. Does this sound a bit preachy? Imagine how I feel.

I think Harry Potter will break 1 Billion worldwide because if it looks like it's getting close, some fans will try to push it over. The studo will try something too.

@Nick: Actually, it has a very strong shot at $300 million worldwide right now. It's got $20 million on Harry Potter 5 right now, and that grossed $292 million domestically. So even if it does drop further, I think it's safe to say that it won't shorten it's gap to less than $8 million. Also, the summer of 2007 was a very competitive summer- it had to deal with The Simpsons Movie, The Bourne Ultimatum, Rush Hour 3 and Superbad, not to mention the direct competition already with Transformers and Ratatouille. The competition for the rest of this year is rather thin- G-Force and G.I. Joe might hurt it a bit, but otherwise it has no major competition. I think at the pace Harry Potter is going at, it could end up with around $340-350 million.

Looking at showtimes for the weekend, but before reviews, Ugly should beat G-force, with HP6 #1. Get the feeling come Sunday, we will talk about how Ugly Truth did better then expected, and G-force worse.

Sorry, I meant $300 million domestic.

Just saw HP6 and boy did it sucked!