Filed under: Box-Office News

Box-Office Wrap-Up: Dec. 19 – Dec. 21, 2008

Yes Man wins another terrible weekend at the box office.

My prediction of Will Smith over Jim Carrey didn't come to fruition. My heart was in the right place… but my head clearly wasn't. I will mention that Seven Pounds beat Yes Man in per theater dollars. Still, the real story of the weekend is how big the box office is tanking overall. In 2007 three weekends in December were over $150m (combined top twelve). This year not one weekend has even hit $83m. Where has all the money gone? Is the problem the economy? Or the movies? Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
This is clearly below studio hopes, the only question now is how long this title can hold out. But I can't think of a math where this hits $100m domestically.
Result: 18.1 million (My rank: #2, $7.6m off)
Yikes. Did you know five new films get new releases on Thursday? Bedtime Stories, Marley and Me, Benjamin Button, Valkyrie, and The Spirit. Plus Doubt expands by 1000 theaters. So if people aren't seeing any movies now… what's going to happen to those titles?
Result: 16.0 million (My rank: #1, $10.8m off)
No budget has been released. But as it was a Universal project I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it cost at least $35m. Which means this one is already in a mess of trouble in terms of profitability.
Result: 10.5 million (My rank: #3, $4.7m off)
It dropped 67%. I don't even have a punchline for that – it's too sad. It's like looking in your stocking and getting set on fire instead of coal.
Result: 10.1 million (My rank: #4, $4.2m off)
Three for the last three! Four Christmases has cracked $100m domestically now, so good news there. Sadly the DVD won't sell and the budget was $85m. So… bad news on that front.
Result: 7.7 million (My rank: #5, $1.4m off)
Summit has to be happy. And even if the next one is rushed and not good, they can count on at least the $200m worldwide they made this time. It's a nice position to be in, as long as they get New Moon out quick.
Result: 5.2 million (My rank: #9, $2.6m off)
7. Bolt
I had everything overrated this weekend. I wrongly assumed people would see bad stuff simply because it was released. My bad.
Result: 4.2 million (My rank: #6, $1.1m off)
It needs more theaters. It finished 2nd in the per theater average! Of course, that could be because people who wanted too see it did, and more theaters would just water down the average. Tough call.
Result: 3.1 million (My rank: #7, $1.8m off)
Where did Milk go? 11th? For shame.
Result: 2.3 million (My rank: #10, $.1m off)
It's at $528m worldwide. Budget was $200m. Gonna sell a mess of DVDs though. So I think Sony has to be smiling.
Result: 2.1 million (My rank: Not Ranked)

So, here's your question for this edition – who you like next weekend? Gonna go kid movie with Marley or Bedtime Stories? They've got 3000 theaters so it wouldn't be a bad call (even though Marley looks like a punch to the face). Or perhaps Oscar contender Benjamin Button? I don't see Valkyrie or The Spirit making any money, but I'm willing to listen if you do. Comment away! It's a free internet (mostly).


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Post #1
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Take into account that for this weekend, there was horrible weather on the East Coast, which I'm willing to say significantly hampered the performances of this weekend's films.

As for next weekend, I'm predicting Benjamin Button to win with a total between 25-30 million, maybe higher. I think Marley & Me and Bedtime Stories will split an audience and each score between 15-20 (Desperaux should take in some cash also). The demographics for The Spirit and Yes Man are pretty similar, and I'll say about 10 million for each. I think Valkyrie is destined to flop, only taking in about 7-10 million. The big surprise will be the holdover of Seven Pounds. It is in a wider release than Doubt, and has the Will Smith factor. I'll say it grabs about the same as this weekend. Doubt should perform at about 5-7 million.

- Chris C.
( December 21st, 2008 | 4:09 pm )
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Post #2
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It is tough. I think Button will make a good ammount of money, especially in the long run. To win it I am going to go with Bedtime Stories. It had one of those annoying campaigns that will make kids force their parents to see it. I dont know about Valkyrie, and I think the Spirit is gonna get killed all kinds of dead.

- chewbaca69
( December 21st, 2008 | 4:11 pm )
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Post #3
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My god, I hope Button does extremely well. Studios need to take more risks with films like these, plus Button was just phenomenal as it was. I hope 40-50 million. I think 20-30 million. Valkyrie…Almost everyone I know wants to see it, and I'm 14, so I think 15-25 million. Bedtime Stories will make money, 20-30 million. Marley and Me will make 20 million in the weekend then fade away. The Spirit will be lucky with 5 million. Doubt will make 8 million and do good in the long run. Yes Man will drop 43% and Seven Pounds will drop 40%. Desperaux will drop 70%. Marley and Bedtime will nip that in the bud. TDTESS will drop from the top 10 althogether.

- Ryan
( December 21st, 2008 | 4:52 pm )
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It's the movies, not the economy. Compare the 9 weekends in October and November to the same 9 last year. 8 of them this years are better. And we had an amazing November–$60+ million openers three weekends in a row!

So that's what's happening to this December. All the blockbusters came out the last two months–QOS, Madagascar 2, Twilight, HSM3, Saw V (yes, it counts, because it made waaaay more than its budget). And all those were quite front-loaded, too. And December gets the left-overs this time around.

The outlook would have been cheerier if Harry Potter 6 had kept November and "Twilight" had stayed on December 12. THEN we would have had a $150+ million weekend this month.

- JM
( December 21st, 2008 | 6:43 pm )
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Despereaux could have decent legs: it is based on a best-selling book, so to many kids it's a recognizable character, and while Bedtime Stories and Marley & Me both look somewhat family friendly, they're both PG, probably because Sandler skews potty humor and Marley's supposed to be depressing. (Put this way: if it were a kid's book, it would win a Newberry, from what I've heard.) Given that the little ones are out of school and their parents will be desperate for a way to shut them up, I think Despereaux might have some staying power.

Box Office Guru also cited the awful East Coast weather as keeping numbers down, since lots of people were snowed in.

As for the openers, I think Benjamin Button and Bedtime Stories are going to be neck and neck. Bedtime Stories skews broad, but Button's getting major Oscar buzz, and people in the middle of the country will be delighted that there's an awards contender they can actually see, plus advertising their Golden Globe nominations will likely pull in even the people who haven't been following the Oscar race.

As for the others, The Spirit might pull in some hopefuls, but early buzz has been really bad. Most of its business will be on Friday, by Miller fans who either didn't hear the warnings or refused to believe them. Valkyrie will be the real test to see if Tom Cruise still has a career left, or if he turned people off by going batshit insane. It's hard to tell with Marley & Me, since there are no reviews in, and the marketing seems to consist of nothing but shots of the dog, but he is adorable and that might be enough.

The weekend's really oversaturated, though, so I don't think a single movie is going to crack $35M, since they'll all be stealing business from each other.

Also, Box Office Mojo confirms that Delgo has officially concluded its domestic run, surviving for one week in theatres after averaging $20 per theatre this week. That HAS to be a record, especially since most theatres are obligated to carry a movie for two weeks.

- aerinpegadrak
( December 21st, 2008 | 11:10 pm )
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Post #6
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I don't think the economy has any thing to do with the December Box-Office Slump.(not much anyway.) it's mostly I think lack of Good films to see. there really isn't anything that great. being released this month. as far as next weekend though, I think it will preform quite a bit better then so far this month. Probably Bedtime Stories or Benjamin Button. will take the lead of the charts. with somewhere From $30 to $40 Million. Marley & Me should do okay seeing it's Christmas and people will be wanting to take the whole family. maybe around $20. I couldn't say for sure about The Spirit Probably no more then $20 Mil though($15 or less likely) and Valkyrie doesn't really look like that bad of a movie. but it does have Tom Cruise in it. not exactly top actor right now. It will probably boom.

- Alex
( December 22nd, 2008 | 12:41 am )
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