wait why dont i get credit i said 34+ (which had me closer then jm) and that was before any number was released i feel cheated laremy

I wonder how much Brad Pitt contributed to the total for Inglourious Basterds.

Loved this movie. My full review is on my website, but I thought it was a masterpiece.

I think District 9 will fall 45% in the next 3/4 weekends. Inglourious Basterds will fall 55% on second week and after that will be 50% fall after 50% fall. I am excited about Inglourious Basters, in August 27 will arrive in Portugal and will see it 100% sure.

What about next weekend? The Final Destination will win with $28M? I think yes!

I just thought the movie was hilarious ,in that, when a character would say something in French or German that the subtitle would be exactly the same think the character was saying. But great filmmaking

Even though my prediction of Inglourious Basterds was way off, this couldn't be a more pleasant surprise. Kudos to Mr. Tarantino.

What surprised me most about Basterds at my screening was the size of the old audience, with at least 10 people looking to be over the age of 60.

Poor Alexis Bledel…
She's cute. But she needs to pick up better roles, less Gilmore Girls-esque, more Sin City-esque.

You know, screw Finke, as far as I know, everyone hates her. That may just be misplaced hate about how she thinks it'll drop 70 percent is ridiculous. I know my fellow university goers who will be hearing about the film (i.e. from guys like me who can't stop raving about it) are going to be out in a good force next weekend (if they can have the power not to succumb to seeing one of the slasher flicks).

Weekend is about escape, something well needed after that depressing first week of realization that your school life has returned and will go on for the next 8-10 months. Canada starts university a bit later I guess but I already know what *I* and a great number of university students are going to be doing that weekend: partying and then seeing a movie hungover the next day. Except mine will be the long anticipated-for-me Gamer. That's my personal take on that.

Other thoughts: Beyond damn thrilled about IB's opening. Hopefully District 9's holds will be like this weekend. Should have seen Shorts' and Post Grad's numbers coming. Real shame about The Goods.

And how about that, with the release of H2 and FD4 next weekend, looks like 4 of the Top 5 will be R-rated films. When the hell was the last time that happened?

[And by "Should have seen Shorts' and Post Grad's numbers coming." I mean "we" not like I'm telling people that it seemed so obvious, sorry haha]

@jeremy wein: You can't predict on Friday night once you know shows are sold out. Everyone predicts on Thursday, and I predict Thursday morning…

@Laremy: sigh fine….

Wow, I was way off – IB opened 2.5x higher than I would've expected. Great movie though, so it deserves the strong opening weekend. Lets hope for some legs to match.

I could still see it dropping quite a bit- it's an awesome movie for sure (one of my favorites of the year, behind "District 9") but it totally pulled the bait and switch in its marketing. And if I know moviegoers, there will be a ton of people complaining "There's not enough action, why do I have to read subtitles blah blah blah". People don't always embrace a good movie when it comes along, is my point. Though this'll at least sell as many tickets as "Sin City" and "Kill Bill". Hopefully it makes over $100 million, but it could top out at $80 million and I wouldn't be surprised.

Who said The Final Destination at 28M! It's too early to be drinking. Anyone remember the direct to DVD ones? And has there ever been a weekend with two horror movie openings?

Again a very interesting weekend coming up, no idea who can make 20M.

Damn. Those are some big numbers for Basterds. Your theory about curse words in the title affecting business has been crushed, Laremy.

Anyways, that can't be good news for Shorts, it's budget must have been at the in the $40-$50 million range. I'm still wondering what the hell happened to William H. Macy. He was great in Fargo, and then just kind of disappeared. I half-wanted to see it just to see what he did.

Next weekend will fall to H2, probably coming short of it's proceeder's amount of cash, but grossing in the area of $25 million none the less. I don't see a 70% drop for Inglourious Basterds, but there is a point about college starting next weekend. It might fall 50-55% for second, and then Final Destination with around $15 million for third.

The Final Destination 3 make $19M on is opening weekend back in Feabruary 2006. With the price of the 3D tickets i think at less $25M are almost sure, and i dont see Halloween crack $20M, but that is just my opinion.

IB falling 70% just because college is starting? No way. Its weekday grosses will plummet, just like every other movie, but its weekend grosses won't be much affected at all. Expect a 55-60% drop, I'd say. I'm seeing it one of these coming weekdays hopefully.

D9's drops will be smaller from here on out, at least for a couple weekends. Next weekend may see about a 40% drop. Horror fans are going to be spoiled with the release of Halloween II and Final Destination 4 on the same weekend, but every other demographic will be left out, which means a great opportunity for strong holds all around. And the weekend after that is Labor Day weekend, which could mean a drop at low as 10-20% for D9.

Oh, and I'm not that surprised that a 2.5-hour movie with 70% subtitles won the weekend with $37.6mil in August. It IS Tarantino, after all, and it got good reviews, and the ads made it look fun and easy to follow (supposed premise: Jews kill Nazis. Everyone loves strong violence, but everyone loves revenge even more, and since it's not a horror movie nobody anticipates being scared or too grossed out by it, so of course they want to see it). Also, other movies have done more impressive things at #1. Like the movie that was 2 hours of brutal torture and 100% subtitles in three different languages, and it managed to open in #1 for three weeks in a row, the first being $83.8mil in February after a Wednesday opening… Yeah. Just to put things in perspective. ;)

@ JM – Ok, I give up. It's late and my brain hurts. What movie are you talking about at the end of your post?

i think he's referring to the passion of the christ, based on those clues

I think the test case was actually "zack and miri make a porno" – however, it was never my theory, it was just a theory I'd heard discussed.

Also, "Drag Me to Hell" was in the conversation.

Oh yes, Passion of the Christ does make sense.

@Dylan, @dw, @JM: If that's the case, are we really comparing Passion of the Christ to Inglourious Basterds? If so, I would think the church groups buying out theaters to Tarantino's film would have made a few headlines.

@Brad Brevet:

I think that he's saying that this is certainly an impressive opening, considering the hard-R rating, the long running time and the subtitles (among other things) but that there have been more impressive openings in our lifetime, specifically "Passion of the Christ". That's where the comparison begins and ends.

PS.

I just saw "The Goods" and thought it was hilarious- I think it'll be a cult hit, definitely much like "Hot Rod" or "Walk Hard" was as soon as they hit DVD.

did anyone else notice that Shorts was directed by Robert Rodriguez?
yes, that Robert Rodriguez.

@Eli: Read what Finke actually had to say:

"So it was Nazis vs Aliens at the box office. In terms of negative cost, the two pics are $72M vs $30M. But I've learned that while District 9 only has a small gross participation for Peter Jackson and nobody else associated with the film, Inglourious Basterds has a big gross participation for both Tarantino and star Brad Pitt. Film financing circles tell me the film has to make more than $60M, and others say it's $80M, in North America in order to earn out. But they also expect a 70% drop for Inglourious Basterds next weekend because most college campuses around the country will be back in session — and that's bad for biz."

I hope you're more opened minded in your classes than you are when someone disagrees with you about something so inconsequential (to you) as a movie's box office. Sounds like they have not only made big money from "Inglourious" but that that NEED to make a lot more.

By the way, I think you're right about the college crowd. But surely this last weekend home was a bigger market.

Why does everyone seem to be onboard with the Aetuer Theory. The director is only one part of the collaborative endeavor. Lately, I've been paying more attention to the film editor, although the director always works closely with him. You can definitely believe in the Star Theory. Brad Pitt will at least double what this movie would have made; and overseas, his films often do twice the box office it does here. It's all about Brad.