Not to mention biggest spring opening ever, according to BOM. Smart move on Universal's part, moving from June to April.

People said you're basically getting a summer movie in April. And the argument continues with those who say March is the new May, with Watchmen (well not so much anymore), Monsters, and now FF4 to prove it.

Having said that, I just think it's been a strong spring and its last 3 weekends before May won't find huge business, unless Hannah Montana has something to say about it. *shudders*

Yeah I have a feeling that "Fast and Furious" will drop like a rock next weekend and (god I hope not- I honestly hope this doesn't happen) that "Hannah Montana" might take the win. Might. I'm thinking that "F&F" will play out like "Quantum of Solace" and will tumble around 60% percent next weekend. It might take the weekend w/ $26 million, then again who knows, considering the huge second weekend drops we've been seeing lately (80% for Friday the 13th, 68% for Watchmen, etc).

"Observe & Report"- not feeling it. I think it might do ok since the only real competition comedy wise is "I Love You Man" (which has been out for 3 weeks already), but the ceiling is $18 million opening and maybe around $40-45 million total at best. Bad idea putting this one only a few months after "Paul Blart".

Hey, this is the first comment I've made in a while that hasn't mentioned "Drago"….you know.

Wow, was I wrong! I though Tokyo Drift killed the franchise. And Vin's career was sinking. After I wrote that M vs A would win, I did notice how many show times my local muti-plex had for F&F and should have changed my mind.

CHUCK BARTOWSKI: MENTIONED 2 WEEKS IN A ROW! (#1 MOVIE ALSO PREDICTED CORRECTLY 2 WEEKS IN A ROW!)

Thanks for the shout-out, Laremy. =] Hopefully I can predict well enough to make next week's column too. Haha.

As for the naysayers and under-predictors… yeah I was wondering "Okay wait, why are they predicting so low? Was there something I missed? Was there a massive boycott by brainless audiences that I never heard about? Were these movies never hits?". Bring the main stars back and you've got a winner, no matter what bombs they've been in recently. And what else could they have done to revive their careers? Smart yet pretty sad moves.

As for next week… wow, after this $70+ million opening, you can't help but believe that it'll stay on top. Then again, it was probably very frontloaded and might drop down to the $20-30 mill's. I'm pretty sure we're all underestimating Hannah Montana too, which will probably open with $30+ mill, if not moreso. I have a week to decide whether or not I should take a huge risk and have Hannah Montana barely edge out F&F for the top spot. It's possible but it's risky. ALSO… Hello!.. If a movie like F&F can make SUMMER CASH on an April weekend… then why can't a Seth Rogen vehicle do summer cash too? Pineapple Express made $40+ mill. Next weekend is gonna be WILD.

Can March really be the new May? Believe it or not, we've already had a dark superhero film, a huge sci-fi animated flick, a wonderful Apatow-esque buddy comedy, and now an action-packed racing car blockbuster. And now before May 1 even hits, we've still got a Seth Rogen picture, a Disney tentpole of sorts, a Zac Efron comedy, a Russell Crowe/Rachel McAdams political thriller, and an Oscar contender with Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx. Sure sounds like an early movie summer.

DARE I MAKE EARLY PREDICTIONS?
1. Hannah Montana – $35 mill
2. Observe and Report – $30 million
3. Fast and Furious – $27 million
4. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $20 million
5. Dragonball – $15 million

How long has it been since the top 5 ALL made $10+ mill? Next week is prime for such a moment. Haha.

After how much Hannah Montana 3D concert made (on 3D screens only), this ones hard to predict. Let's go crazy and say $50 M. Maybe higher.

@Steve: I am just wondering if the tanking of the Jonas Brothers movie is any indication, or is Miley that much more popular?

@Brad Brevet:

I think the Hannah Montana last year was a one-time phenomenon- can't make lightning strike twice in the same place, you know?

The thing about the movie was that it came out just when the sold-out concert tour was at its peak- "Montana-mania" was at a high, and the film cashed in at just the right time.

The new film might have a bit bigger audience than the concert, I think. It might hit $30 million Opening weekend, more likely it won't, but it might. At worst, it'll have "Lizzie Maguire" numbers, at best…maybe High School Musical 3 (again though, hard to compare). Man, trying to analyze these box office predictions/numbers is tough stuff, I don't give you enough credit sometimes Laremy…

Oh and Jonas Brothers were never (and could never) be as big as Hannah Montana, just FYI. Their record sales/popularity doesn't reach Miley's heights, though people wish they could have.

I don't think F&F will drop as drastically as "Friday the 13th" and "Watchmen." Ft13 is a horror film, which normally would mean it has little crossover appeal. Compound that with the fact that everyone was attracted by its opening-on-Friday-the-13th gimmick, and that that Friday-the-13th happened to be a holiday weekend, thus naturally making the 2nd weekend drop rather large anyway, and… well, I still wasn't expecting an 80% drop, but if it had been a 65-70% drop, we shouldn't have been surprised.

As for "Watchmen," it's dropping like other films that got lots of hype and ended up turning out to be an entirely different movie from mainstream expectations. I've already compared its box office to "Eyes Wide Shut" and "AI: Artificial Intelligence." All three films were highly anticipated tentpole releases (yes, even EWS to some extent, being that it was released wide in the summer), and when they ended up being far more challenging than the audiences anticipated, the word of mouth was unjustly critical, causing all these films to drop 50-60% for four or more weekends in a row.

"Fast & Furious" will probably drop like QOS–around 60%, and not too much more. Maybe it'll drop less. But the film, it seems, is exactly what people were expecting. And it doesn't really have competition next week. I'll be surprised if it drops any less than 55% or any more than 66%

Sheesh! cant believe such a crap movie made so much!

I am no fanboy, but I gotta say Watchmen deserved this success more!

Adventureland was better than people made it out to be. Go see it, it's funny.