Whoa. As it turns out, it was only the sixth worst weekend of the year. The top twelve cleared $104m, my projections were way too low. But the big news was the movie at the top, so let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Week In A Row
It can't catch Basic Instinct or Fatal Attraction, but it will pass all the other erotic thrillers on the board. It should end somewhere around $60m domestically. It'll do even better internationally, but not until June, so let's call it $140m total on a production budget of $20m. Cha-ching.
Result: 28.5 million (My rank: #1, $16.5m off)
17 Again will hit $40m on Monday, which means we can expect a few hundred more tween films in 2010.
Result: 11.6 million (My rank: #2, $1.3m off)
Definitely a stronger title than I thought, but nowhere near as strong as Step Up which opened at $20m. Evidently people like their Channing dancing as opposed to fighting.
Result: 11.4 million (My rank: #5, $4.0m off)
This remains one of the strangest releases in recent history, put out in the dead zone of April. I would have released it on December 5th, hyped it as an Oscar film, and gone up against Cadillac Records, Punisher, and Four Christmases for box-office supremacy. And I woulda won.
Result: 9.7 million (My rank: #3, $.6m off)
You guys had me worried on Thursday with the Earth predictions. Luckily, this was what I thought it was. Still, they've made $80m on the international markets, so this is all gravy.
Result: 8.55 million (My rank: #4, $.45m off)
It was helped out by the release schedule, no family films, and thus only dropped 36 percent. It also cleared $300m in total receipts this weekend, a nice result for a first quarter film.
Result: 8.52 million (My rank: #9, $3.2m off)
Must have been hurt by The Soloist. People didn't know which newspaper film they were supposed to support.
Result: 6.8 million (My rank: #6, $.5m off)
No production budget has been released… but I don't think hay and tractors cost too much. I figured that 58 percent bleed couldn't continue, and it didn't.
Result: 6.3 million (My rank: #8, $0.2m off)
I expected it to do a little better. Still, $289m total and still cruising.
Result: 6.0 million (My rank: #7, $.8m off)
A 65 percent drop. Verdict: people don't care about Crank 2.
Result: 2.4 million (My rank: #10, $0.9m off)
Any early Wolverine predictions for next weekend? The last X-Men opened at $100m and this one is getting 4,000 theaters. Will Ghost of Girlfriends Past rack up as counter programming? I don't see anything for Terra but I'm willing to listen.