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Filed under: Box-Office News

Box-Office Wrap-Up: Apr. 17 – Apr. 19, 2009

Zac Efron wins the fourth slowest weekend of the year.

BY: Laremy Legel | April 19th 2009 at 1:06 PM
It looks as though Zac Efron is 75 percent as popular as Miley Cyrus. Or maybe it means that pre-teen girls have stronger buying power than teen girls?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
1. 17 Again
I expect this one to sink like a stone next weekend. The word-of-mouth is going to be brutal.
Result: 24.0 million (My rank: #1, $3.7m off)
2. State of Play
Yeah, I underestimated it, but $14m isn't exactly tearing it up. On the other hand, it did beat out Body of Lies $12m opening, and that grossed $115m (mostly due to overseas). So perhaps it's not all bad news.
Result: 14.0 million (My rank: #2, $2.8m off)
3. Monsters vs. Aliens
It passed $250m this weekend. But the production budget was a hefty $175m… meaning, they aren't out of the woods yet.
Result: 12.9 million (My rank: #2, $1.6m off)
4. Hannah Montana: The Movie
I had it sinking, but not by 60%. But that's the blueprint for this type of thing, nice opening weekend and then a quick sink to DVD.
Result: 12.6 million (My rank: #3, $1.6m off)
5. Fast and Furious
$227m on a budget of $85m and the rest is all gravy. Fast and Furious, you've been cleared for profit.
Result: 12.2 million (My rank: #4, $.8m off)
6. Crank 2: High Voltage
Yikes. That's a beating. Especially given the first one opened at $10m. It seems the general public didn't really want a thrillride.
Result: 6.5 million (My rank: #6, $4.6m off)
7. Observe and Report
This weekend's big dropper is Observe and Report at 63.2 percent. We can all expect an unrated DVD in the very near future.
Result: 4.0 million (My rank: #7, $1.2m off)
8. Knowing
I'm surprised how little this has made overseas. Does Nic Cage not translate?
Result: 3.4 million (My rank: #8, $1.1m off)
9. I Love You, Man
I'm on a roll now that we're in the "no dollars" range. When the dust clears this will end up as the #2 R Rated comedy of the year (so far), behind a little film called Watchmen.
Result: 3.3 million (My rank: #9, $0.7m off)
10. The Haunting in Connecticut
One more week of nonsense and then we're into the blockbuster season. Your choices to win? Fighting, The Soloist, and Obsessed. So yeah, it's going to be a downer weekend. I'll probably take Fighting when it comes down to it, but many numbers to crunch before Thursday. See you then.
Result: 3.1 million (My rank: #10, $0.1m off)

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Post #1
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Brutal WOM? Where do you get that from?

17 Again has a A- CinemaScore rating and the WOM on Twitter, message boards etc is very positive (despite the reviews).

- Olivia
( April 19th, 2009 | 12:44 pm )
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Post #2
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Um… you forgot to mention that I was only .2 million off 17 AGAIN's box office weekend take!! I predicted $24.2 million! and the first spot! NICE! ANDDD that every film in the top 5 would finally each pass $10+ million!

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND – All 3 new films (including, sadly, the 2 dull-looking ones) should make the top 4.
1. THE SOLOIST – $22.1 million
2. 17 AGAIN – $13.4 million
3. FIGHTING – $13.2 million
4. OBSESSED – $10.5 million
5. STATE OF PLAY – $9.8 million

Maybe..surprisingly.. all films next weekend can each pass up $10 million too.

Have a beautiful weekend everyone! :]

- Chuck Bartowski
( April 19th, 2009 | 1:18 pm )
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Post #3
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Thank God Summer Movie Season is almost here….

I'm super bored so I'm just gonna early-predict the first few weekends of May.

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 1-3

1. WOLVERINE – $77.1 million
2. THE GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST – $21.2 million
3. BATTLE FOR TERRA – $11.1 million
4. THE SOLOIST – $10.8 million
5. 17 AGAIN – $7.0 million

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 8-10
1. STAR TREK – $70.6 million (with an extra $9 million on opening day May 7)
2. WOLVERINE – $39.4 million
3. GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST – $11.3 million
4. NEXT DAY AIR – $6.8 million
5. BATTLE FOR TERRA – $6.5 million
(i like how ALL new releases for the first two weekends will be able to get into the top 5)

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 15-17
1. ANGELS & DEMONS – $55.6 million
2. STAR TREK – $42.0 million
3. WOLVERINE – $19.7 million
4. GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST – $7.2 million
5. NEXT DAY AIR(??) – $2.9 million
(WOW! from the looks of it, the top 3 will always be the big-hitters, while the last couple are super low)

- Chuck Bartowski
( April 19th, 2009 | 1:36 pm )
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Post #4
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Next weekend is hard. The Soloist is opening with 1,800 theatres and Fighting will need to more than double what Never Back Down opened with.

It's looking like Obsessed, which is even a doubt, or 17 Again, if it doesn't fall hard. Hell, Monsters vs. Aliens will finish in the Top 5 again.

- Eli
( April 19th, 2009 | 1:48 pm )
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Post #5
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THE SOLOIST at $22.1 million? Does anyone in the general public even know of this movie yet?

- Steve
( April 19th, 2009 | 3:06 pm )
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Post #6
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So 'Wolverine' will make only as much as 'Fast & Furious'? I think not!

- ash
( April 19th, 2009 | 4:31 pm )
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Post #7
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@Chuck Bartowski: The Soloist is only getting 1800 theaters, so even if its at 10k per theater, its only 18 million. 22 seems too high given that the adult crowd isn't turning up in full force lately — although I do think this one will have some terrific holds.

- Chris C
( April 19th, 2009 | 4:43 pm )
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Post #8
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Who thinks "Earth" could surprise us and pull a #1? On BOM, voters have declared they want to watch this movie more than "Fighting" or "Obsessed," and more people want to see this on opening weekend than "The Soloist." Of course, those percentages are only useful in comparison to similar movies. But who knows…?

"The Soloist" and "Earth" are both opening in 1800 theaters. To its credit, "The Soloist" has Robert Downey Jr. & Jamie Foxx. To Earth's credit, it's opening on Earth Day.

To its detriment, "The Soloist" got pushed back from the Oscar season, and the advance reviews aren't kind. To Earth's detriment, it hasn't had as much buzz, and it's a documentary.

- JM
( April 19th, 2009 | 8:42 pm )
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Post #9
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To be honest, I completely forgot about EARTH. Wow, that's not a good sign. I haven't seen ANY promotion for it on TV. I've only seen a trailer or two in theaters but never anything on TV or newspapers or any movie websites. Interesting, huh? Even Laremy didn't mention it!

Doesn't everyone know about THE SOLOIST? It's got Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx. It's trailer was with tons of films (last fall though…) and it's TV spots and posters are everywhere from what I've seen.

Keep in mind that these are all EARLY predictions. I stand by what I predicted with WOLVERINE, but I was planning on knocking THE SOLOIST down a few notches by Friday.

:]

- Chuck Bartowski
( April 19th, 2009 | 11:52 pm )
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Post #10
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Yeah, Earth isn't going to make any monies. In the grand tradition of all former BBC shows turned Documentary…

- laremy
( April 20th, 2009 | 9:26 am )
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Post #11
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Early predicts:

1. Fighting- $17 million
2. The Soloist- $13 million
3. 17 Again- $11 million
4. Obsessed- $10.5 million
5. State of Play- $9 million
6. Monsters Vs. Aliens- $9 million
7. Earth- $6.5 million (in addition to a gross of around $4 million Wednesday and $2.5 million Thursday, making for a $13 million 5 day gross.)

- Bustray
( April 20th, 2009 | 1:16 pm )
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Post #12
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I honestly don't think The Soloist is going to do as well as everything else thinks it is. In this time of recession, people want to go see lighter films such as 17 Again, or Monsters Vs. Aliens, rather than heavy dramas.

- Bustray
( April 20th, 2009 | 6:14 pm )
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