Another tough weekend to predict. I agree All About Steve looks atrocious.

I have hope for Gamer. The 18-35 demo has been buzzing about it for a while now, it's got pretty good marketing (with the one exception of omitting a "From the directors of the Crank movies" tagline in its ads, which I feel is a mistake), and the same weekend/number of theatres Crank opened to. The reason why I think it'll open significantly better: the rising star power of Gerard Butler. The ladies have been buzzing too (and it's already started for Law Abiding Citizen next month).

I agree on the FD4 logic: though it has a higher number to fall from, the 3D factor will level out the drop to something very similar to FD3. It shouldn't have huge drops until Meatballs' opening on the 18th (when it loses its 3D screens). I'm also hoping for a drop like last weekend of Basterds. Hopefully Extract will find a bigger audience than we expect. Even if the film itself disappoints, Judge deserves it.

My 3-day predictions:
1.) Gamer – $16.5m
2.) All About Steve – $14.2m
3.) The Final Destination – $14.8m
4.) Inglourious Basterds – $10.9m
5.) Extract – $7.7m

LOL, All About Steve does look terrible. I do think Gamer will take numb 1, though. scary thought.

This weekend is very dificult to predict. I have 4 potencial winners (yes, 4!). My prediction:

3 Day Weekend / 4 Day Weekend

1: Gamer – $14.0M / $16.2M
2: The Final Destination – $12.1M / $14M
3: Inglorious Basterds – $11.3M / $13.0M
4: All About Steve – $8.2M / $10.1M
5: District 9 – $7.0 / $8.2M

Whoops, I meant $15.2m for All About Steve.

What's better/worse, getting horrible reviews like "Steve" or not screening at all like "Gamer"?

My local AMC 30 has few showings for "Steve" and "Extract", but "Gamer" has many more. so that alone I say it will be #1. But, so many people (women) liked "The Proposal" so can't help to think it might do better then $16M.

I WANT "Inglorious Basterds" to win, and I think it could. On Labor Day weekend, films in their third week or older typically fall from 5-30%, maybe more if they're losing a lot of theaters. But films in their 2nd weekend tend to fall only a little bit below the norm. So if TFD would have normally fallen 60%, then it may only fall 50-52%. And if Halloween II would normally drop 70%, then it may "only" drop 60%. So I think IB will at least end up higher than HII and TFD. And if "Gamer" and "All About Steve" bomb (I don't think "Extract" is in the running here), then IB could end up on top. However, I think one of those two will take top spot. Here's my predictions:

1) Gamer–$14.8mil
2) Inglorious Basterds–$14.4mil
3) The Final Destination–$13.2mil
4) All About Steve–$12.8mil
5) District 9–$8.6mil
6) Extract–$7.0mil
7) Julie & Julia–$6.6mil
8) Halloween II–$5.8mil
9) G.I. Joe–$5.6mil
10) Time Traveler's Wife–$5.3mil

Films that could surpass G.I. Joe:

-Where The Wild Things Are
-Avatar
-Shelock Holmes
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 2
-New Moon
-2012
-A Christmas Carol

Anyways, predics for the weekend (4-Day):

1. Gamer- $17.5 million
2. Inglourious Basterds- $16.8 million
3. All About Steve- $14.2 million
4. The Final Destination- $12.9 million
5. Extract- $11.3 million
6. District 9- $9.5 million
7. Julie and Julia- $7.1 million
8. Halloween 2- $5.9 million
9. G.I. Joe- $5.6 million
10. The Time Traveler's Wife- $5.4 million

When I predicted last week that "Gamer" would do well because it would be a date movie…enough grunts for the guys and looks for the girls…I forgot about that stinker, "All About Steve." I understand it was shot a while ago and is only being released because of the bankability of the two leads. I hang my head in shame at my gender but I think they will drag the guys to this film and give it decent box office. I mean if "He's Just Not Into You" made the big buck, there's no telling.

1. Gamer – $16M It has the most marketing muscle behind it. Plus it's got a fun concept. It's downside isn't the lack of reviews but all the damn R rated competition. I'm going out on a limb by giving it the weekend, because it has the potential to be like Crank or Bangkok Dangerous.

2. THE Final Destination – $13.6M Just edges out Steve. It probably won't drop too hard, what with all that 3-D mumbo jumbo going on. But man, this movie was far from a good film.

3. All About Steve – $13.2M This movie looks to only be counting on the super summer that both Bullock and Cooper had, because there is nothing else marketable about this movie. It doesn't look funny. Sandra's character looks down right insane and scary. If it didn't have the stars, this one opens at $2M tops. This opening I have is just the goodwill of the leads, it will drop later.

4. Inglourious Basterds – $12.4M This one could possibly win this weekend, and like everyone else here, I hope it does.

5. District 9 – $7.3M

6. Halloween 2 – $6.8M So, Rob Zombie made a dark gritty slasher film with zero fun value. No repeat business on this one. A complete misfire that makes me think Zombie isn't a good filmmaker at all and the Devil's Rejects was just a fluke.

7. Julie and Julia – $5M

8. G.I. Joe – $4.8M

9. Extract – $3.9M Mike Judge movies are hard to market because he rarely has the big outrageous trailer laughs like you see in The Hangover or something. His jokes build on each other, and are often subtle. Look at Office Space, a hilarious movie, and try to find a couple of stand alone funny lines for the trailer. It's impossible. Extract could be funnier than the trailer makes it look.

10. The Time Traveler's Wife – $3.6M

Here is my guess for the normal 3-day weekend:

[1] $13.6M – All About Steve (used Sandra Bullock's average opening)
[2] $12.0M – Inglourious Basterds
[3] $11.5M – Final Destination 4
[4] $9.9M – Gamer
[5] $7.4M – Halloween 2
[6] $6.0M – Julie & Julia
[7] $5.8M – District 9
[8] $4.9M – G.I Joe
[9] $4.8M – The Time Traveler's Wife
[10] $4.0 – Extract (gave it the same per-theater average as Taking Woodstock from last week)

Maybe I'm a little bit out of the loop, but I haven't even heard of All about Steve until just now.

@Colin: From Movieline

This is why studios don’t screen some movies for critics. After a summer during which Bradley Cooper and Sandra Bullock hits combined for $350 million at the box office, the harsh reality of September has set in with their romantic quasi-farce All About Steve. The early reviews are in, and you might say they could be… better. But how bad could Steve really be? Let’s take a sampling after the jump.

9. “Occasionally, the scattershot humor hits a target. But mostly it’s painful to watch Bullock, now 45, babbling like a psychotic as she chases a younger hunk.” — Joe Williams, St. Louis Post-Dispatch

8. “It’s ultimately neither romantic comedy nor anti-romantic comedy, wandering so far off course that it’s hard to tell exactly what it is, beyond a self-infatuated quirkfest populated by three-legged babies, deaf children stuck in abandoned mines, and a potential love interest for Bullock, played by DJ Qualls, who makes apple carvings that look like celebrities’ faces.” — Nathan Rabin, The AV Club

7. “Mary appears to be emotionally handicapped in a way that’s neither cute nor charming and would be worrisome if you were her friend. Though you wouldn’t be.” — Connie Ogle, Miami Herald

6. “[Bullock]’s never been that good in dizzy, ‘out there’ roles. She might have learned that lesson with 1999’s in Forces of Nature. Apparently not. All About Steve, an unfunny, annoying, badly written, badly acted comic fiasco, may be the worst movie in Bullock’s career. — Roger Moore, Orlando Sentinel

5. “Frantic, inane, moronic and obnoxious, All About Steve ranks among the very worst movies of the year. The decade, even. […] Unless you’re desperate to start a drinking game when this movie hits cable — knock one back every time Mary says ‘crossword’!” — spare yourself.” — Alonso Duralde, MSNBC

4. “Cooper’s character proves utterly bland, and [Thomas Haden] Church’s take on the unctuous news guy makes you wonder if he’d rather jump back a couple of movies, transform into sand and quietly ooze away.” — Brian Lowry, Variety

3. “Any comedy that falls back on a woman talking to her hamster or the plight of hearing-impaired children in a mineshaft isn’t just grasping at straws, it’s throwing in the towel.” — Matt Pais, Metromix Chicago

2. “The film isn’t merely unfunny and stupefyingly inane but a depressing waste of money, energy and time, yours included. This soul-killing atrocity begins with a bad idea and fully delivers on its lack of promise.” — Rafer Guzman, Newsday

1. “One of its most unfortunate elements is seeing Bullock so stranded and helpless in would-be comic frenzy. An actress should never, ever, be asked to run beside a van in red disco boots for more than about half a block, and then only if her child is being kidnapped.” — Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times

· All About Steve [Rotten Tomatoes]

@Patricia: People definitely aren't "loving" it, that's for certain.

@Bustray: I'm shocked you didn't type "squeakquel" – those geniuses worked for a long time to think that one up.

1. Final Destination $15 Million
2. Gamer $14 Million
3. All About Steve $12 Million
4. Inglourious Basterds $11 Million
5. Halloween 2 $9 Million
6. District 9 $7 Million
7. G.I. Joe $6 Million
8. Extract $4.6 Million
9. Julie & Julia $4.4 Million
10. Time Traveler's Wife $4.1 Million

Thanks Patricia. You know I have actually seen previews for it now that I think about it. I literally did not think that it had a title because it looked so generic that it may as well have been called romantic comedy, or just remain untitled. Thanks for the reviews.

This Weekend is so dull, that i absolutely dont want to waste my brains in calculating what is going to make how much.
If i had to make a pick, i would say All About Steve tops followed by Inglorious Basterds, Gamer and Final Destination 4.

1. Gamer – $15.2 million
2. Inglourious Basterds – $14.3 million. Look at Superbad: released at the same timeframe, dropped 46% second weekend, dropped 31% third weekend. I would have predicted the same drop for IB before, but found out it's gaining 193 theaters, which is pretty great. And I believe it still has a good chance at finishing #1 once the actual numbers come in.
3. All About Steve – $14.0 million. It ain't no Proposal, and it's getting released at 2251 theaters. This movie would be lucky to even make it to $12-14 million.
4. The Final Destination – $12.8 million. Dropped it 53%. Should be enough.
5. District 9 – $8.4 million. Rush Hour 3 was relleased at the same timeframe, and it's per screen average dropped 17%. I think D9 will do pretty much the same, but it loses only 41 theater, so it should do great business.
6. Julie & Julia – $6.6 million. Yeah, it was at $7.0 million last weekend. But this is a holiday weekend, it's the 5th weekend for this movie, and it gains 25 theaters. The result – incredibly minor drop.
7. Extract – $6.4 million
8. Halloween II – $6.0 million. Sure, it's opening weekend was soft, but with 26% Saturday drop, it's still gonna fall hard this weekend.
9. G.I. Joe – $5.9 million. I'm dropping it's per screen average after looking at the drop of Bourne Ultimatum (minus 7%), but it loses 600 theaters, so the weekend drop will be much harder than those 7%.
10. The Time Traveler's Wife – $5.0 million. Holiday weekend + 4th weekend + small theater decline = nice drop and good overall business. Same as Julie & Julia.

6 movies to outgross G.I. Joe? I'd put my money on Avatar, Alvin and the Chipmunks 2, New Moon, 2012, A Christmas Carol and Sherlock Holmes.

By the way, Laremy, I'm sorry if this question has been asked before, but why don't you update the box-office wrap-up once the actual, not estimated numbers come in? It especially matters on a weekend like this, when you've got 4 movies battling it out for the #1 spot, and no matter how they rank by the estimated numbers, their ranking has a good chance to change with the actual numbers coming in. Just curious.

"An advance screening of “All About Steve” played to an audience silent save for the occasional verbal insult. Maybe a sitcom laugh track would have helped. At least it would provide a hint of where we’re supposed to chuckle."

Movie reviewer from the KC Star.

@Steve: I have seen more "F" reviews for that film than any other this year. It's amazing. But they only need two million folk, and there gotta be at least that many that don't follow reviews, right?

Transformers 2 gonna hit 400M this weekend??

@Nick: I'm not so sure about Avatar. I'm wondering if it will have the same reception as the Golden Compass or Beowulf.

@Laremy: Oh my god, you're right. My sincerest apologies to the trained monkeys who typed up the screenplay for that movie.

I'm going to see Avatar just to see what all that money buys, and I bet a lot of people are with me. And I see less films than average. Mfan does not stand for Movie Fan. (but I like this site – it's like sports)

I saw "Extract" on August 30th and really enjoyed it. "Gamer" and "All About Steve" were pretty much blowouts, very bad movies.