#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks in a Row
I'm dinging it. I've got to, too much competition in the form of Paranormal Activity. The last version of Saw opened at $30m, only a year ago, but I don't feel like the momentum is there for this one. And yes, after all the spreadsheets and research are completed, it still occasionally comes down to gut feeling. Reassuring, eh?
Estimate: $22.5 million
It will drop, and I consider that drop to be a referendum on the film's word of mouth because there is no legit demographic opener against it. Yes, I know about Astro Boy. I stand by my statement.
Estimate: $15.7 million
$37m so far. This is the weekend it crosses $50m. But at some point all the people interested in seeing it will have seen it. We're still a few weeks away from that, but I'm now putting it on a normal down-slope trajectory.
Estimate: $13.7 million
I think it's going to play decently with young adults. But with everyone else? I don't foresee positive results. Bonus Oracle Fact: Amelia won't crack the top ten this weekend. Only 800 theaters. And I'm guessing it might never get wide given the savage reviews (mine included).
Estimate: $12.4 million
It's been winning the weekdays. Tuesday, for instance. So I think the word of mouth is decent and it will hold up this weekend.
Estimate: $10.6 million
Where is the marketing? They've gotten the 3k theaters, check that box, but I don't see any way the trailer is going to get parents heavily involved. Far too obtuse.
Estimate: $10.5 million
Not a great movie, but I'd like to officially recognize Malin Akerman. I think she's got a big future in rom-coms, I'd bet on her over Heigl actually.
Estimate: $9.8 million
Did anyone read
Ebert's take on 3-D? Scathing stuff. And I'm not sure there's a compelling counter-argument either.
Estimate: $6.0 million
The budget was $20m. It stands around $13m so far. Translation: maybe hold off on that Sony stock purchase.
Estimate: $5.7 million
Lotta choices out there for Halloween fans, from silly to serious.
Estimate: $4.2 million
Who you got? Anyone out there want to make a $30m call for Saw VI? And where do you have Paranormal Activity? Am I too bearish on Astro Boy? Here's your chance to make me look silly, don't hold back.