I'd flip Twilight and Bolt's numbers, personally. Bolt's running on more screens with more showings (shorter run time) and has more and better advertising. If High School Musical has taught us anything, it's not to underestimate the spending power of people too young to be allowed on the internet, especially with a movie headlined by Miley Cyrus. I also see Bond doing slightly better, possibly as high as $40M.

@aerinpegadrak: Twilight will definitely win the weekend and it already started its romp at midnight tonight.

@Brad Brevet: I remain skeptical. The fan reaction I've seen has been mixed, and I still refuse to count out Bolt. The weekend is pretty much sold out at the El Capitan, which is a better indication than anything else online of how a Disney movie will do. Box Office Mojo's poll of which movie people will be seeing each weekend is usually a pretty accurate indicator of the top box office, but HSM opened way down on the list, and its opening weekend at the El Capitan was sold out weeks in advance on its way to a $47M opening in October. The current BOM poll has Quantum of Solace tracking higher than Twilight; I'd put its drop at closer to 40%.

The book sales just haven't been all that high. If every person who bought the last book (as people sticking around to the end are more likely to be fans than people just picking up the first book) sees the movie this weekend, at $10 a head, that's $27M, and the critical consensus is that no one other than fans wants to see it. Friday's sales simply aren't a good indication of the movie's eventual performance, as it's not going to perform nearly as well even into Saturday and Sunday; everyone who is interested in seeing this movie will see it on Friday, and even Friday's evening performances aren't going to be as popular as the midnight shows.

I believed Serenity's hype and was crushingly disappointed, and Serenity's noise was much bigger than this. I refuse to get sucked in again. If Summit pulls this off, I'll be the first to congratulate them, but I think the bar is being set way too high.

HA! $70.6! LOSAHS! You can all go cry now about how unfair the world is…