What happened to The Fourth Kind?

@m1: It finished 14th, at $1.3m. Just for fun:

#11 Pirate Radio: $1.6m
#12 Law Abiding Citizen: $1.54m
#13 The Box: $1.51m
#14 The Fourth Kind: $1.33

New Moon is going to be huge on the first day, but will fall about 45% Friday to Saturday. This could also be the biggest opening of November. 2012 will burn. It is an action movie with bad critics. That type of movies always fall a lot (well, on my country, Portugal, 2012 is the second biggest opening of the year…).

My predicitions:
1: New Moon – $103,6M
2: 2012 – $28,9M
3: A Blind Side – $16,1M
4: A Christmas Carol – $15,2M
5: Planet 51 – $13,1M

1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon–$91.6mil. This is about what the polls on BOM suggest, once I factor in the theater increase. I could be low; I do not believe I'm high. "New Moon" introduces the Team Edward vs. Team Jacob element that EVERY Twilight fan argues over. That'll generate quite a big of excitement. And this is one of those times when nudity (okay, half-nudity) really WILL figure into big box office numbers. As they say, the plot thickens with "New Moon." It'll a whole lot harder to predict "Eclipse," though, since it's getting a Wednesday opening. I guess that means it'll have the best OW percentage of the series since it'll burn so much on Wednesday and Thursday. But will it manage to top "New Moon"? Because "New Moon" is bound to make significantly more than "Twilight," especially overseas.

2. 2012–$30.0mil. About a 54% drop. Not wonderful, not bad, but in between. Its hold next will will be significantly more impressive.

3. The Blind Side–$17.0 mil. I thought this would bomb, but the polls on BOM suggest the opposite. And it IS an uplifting drama with a recognizable star. I could be terribly wrong, though.

4. A Christmas Carol (2009)–$15.6mil. About a 30-35% drop this weekend. A great hold or maybe even a rise next weekend. After that, Christmas holidays will help buoy this movie towards something a bit more comforting than its tepid $30mil opening.

5. Planet 51–$13.5mil. I HAVE seen trailers for this one, more than once. They play during the kids' films. But currently alien movies aren't going over well with kids ("Aliens in the Attic," "Battle for Terra," and the infamous "Delgo"). Advance reviews are bad, and polls suggest people aren't interested. Neither am I.

6. Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire–$10.0mil. I want to see it as soon as I possibly can!

7. The Men Who Stare at Goats–$3.1mil. It won't hold as well as most adult-oriented movies do, as last week suggested.

8. Couples Retreat–$2.6mil

9. Paranormal Activity–$2.0mil. As I said before, Halloween is past, and scary movies aren't really what we're into right now. It's had a great run, and I hope it can rustle up some good business overseas. It's getting a release in the UK later this month.

10. Michael Jackson's This Is It–$1.8mil. Falling 65%. Concert films never hold well after their second weekend. And whenever something is advertised as a 2-week engagement, it may hold well the 2nd weekend, but not the following ones (see "Toy Story 1&2 3D").

1) The Twilight Saga: New Moon $95.4 M
2) 2012 $33.7 M
3) The Blind Side $20.3 M
4) Precious $14.1 M
5) A Christmas Carol $14.0 M
6) Planet 51 $12.9 M
7) The Men Who Stare at Goats $3.2 M
8) Paranormal Activity $2.1 M
9) Michael Jackson's This Is It $1.8 M
0) Couples Retreat $1.7 M

@Laremy
I'm trying to remember where I saw the trailer for Planet 51. G-Force maybe? You could be right about it, because I haven't heard anything either. I think it is a much better alternative to A Christmas Carol. I could tell from the trailer that both kids and adults would like it, and it actually made me laugh out loud. We'll see if people catch on considering we have two weeks in one for word of mouth here.

U$105 million is what I'm expecting for New Moon.

New Moon- 103 million
2012- 28 million
Christmas Carol- 14 million
Precious- 12.5 million

Blind Side- 7 million

1. New Moon – $102.6
2. 2012 – $27.4
3. Planet 51 – $9.8
4. A Christmas Carol – $11.1
5. The Blind Side – $9.0
6. Precious – $8.9
7. Men Who Stare – $2.7
8. Couple's Retreat – $2.1
9. Law Abiding Citizen – $1.9
10. Fourth Kind – $1.6
11. Paranormal Activity – $1.5
12. This Is It – $1.3

Laremy, you have the top 12 at 215 million. Sounds high to me. I had my weekend at 200 even, and then skimmed it down. Then saw your weekend and had a shock.

Sure, my Twilight and Precious numbers may be low, but I don't feel like Blind Side or A Christmas Carol are going to do well this weekend. Well, as always… we'll see

@Dan Tralder: I have had bad luck trying to adjust my numbers to fit an overall weekend gross, thus my "build it and they will come" motto. Has it worked for you? It looks to me like the box office can hit $250 million without breaking a sweat, that is, without titles in decline dropping more than expected. I speculate that the weekend box office saturation point of diminishing returns is somewhere between $275 and $300 million, but I haven't seen any evidence of it.

1. Twilight Saga: New Moon – $95.4M This is such a tough call. Usually the sequel does better because it wins new fans, but I don't think Twilight got a lot of new fans last year, and it's had less than a year on home video where most films would have two before the sequel came out. I feel that we've got a Harry Potter thing here. But then, it's sold out all the midnight shows and has broken pre-sale records. I'm going 95 million here. I have faith that it will have a huge Friday then tumble by Sunday.

2. 2012 – $30.6M I like the reasoning behind not too big a drop. It's not that bad of a movie, and the WOM hasn't been horrible. Should outperform Day After Tomorrow.

3. The Blind Side – $20.4M My father-in-law wants to see this, and if he wants to see a movie then I know the word has gotten out. May seem high, but this could be the family film of the week.

4. A Christmas Carol – $17M Not going to drop too hard. Why wasn't Planet 51 done in 3-D. Did they miss the boat?

5. Planet 51 – $12.6M Not a lot of buzz or advertising here. Just like everyone said.

6. Precious – $11M God, this movie rocked. I might be lowballing it here.

7. The Men Who Stare at Goats – $3.4M
8. Couples Retreat – $2.2M
9. Paranormal Activity – $2.1M
10. This is It – $2M

@mfan: well…. I guess I don't know. I haven't kept track of number before/after fitting to the total gross. This weekend will probably be the litmus test for that, I suppose

New Moon's budget is in between $50 – $70 million, according to Wikipedia.

1. New Moon- $120 million (a little high, i know, but all this promotion, anticipation & hype has to earn it major $$$)

2. 2012- $27 million (mixed word-of-mouth, most are saying: decent special effects, bad story & acting, so most audiences might just skip it and wait til DVD)

3. Precious- $18 million (let's face it, word of mouth is great, and now more people are getting to see it due to it's expansion)

4. The Blind Side- $16 million (doesn't have the legs to beat my top 3, but the good or decent word of mouth'll get around…)

Next weekend is interesting. A bigger question than the opening of new moon (undeniably big, we all admit) is how much it will fall going into thanksgiving. Odds for a traditional weekend could have exceeded 70 percent, but its thanksgiving! Moviegoers aplenty. The weekend after that expect one of the bigger plummets of a major movie in box office history.

What a shame that Bad Lieutenant won't be in the top 10. Damn limited release!

Ah, what the hell. Same predictions as Sunday.

1.) New Moon – $103m
2.) 2012 – $30.1m

I worked Twilight last year and it was beyond busy. I can take solace in the fact that working at the theatre this weekend for the New Moon mob will at least have the ladies coming out in full force – the ones my age (early 20s) during those late shows. And I'll tell you, working that kind of shift isn't an unpleasant thing. :D

1.) New Moon – $ 88 mil
The book has fans but not as much as Harry Potter. I think 22k per theater should be good enough.
2.) 2012 – $ 32.5 mil
This is a nice movie. I think Ebert's review was perfect. Not a classic, but very enjoyable.
3.) A Christmas Carol – $ 15.5 mil
4.) Precious – $ 14.5 mil
5.) The Blind Side – $ 13 mil
6.) Planet 51 – $ 8.5 mil

And since the other films this weekend are not worth talking about, i would just leave it here. Just 1 wild prediction i would like to add… Kurbaan(A Bollywood movie) might just make more than $ 1 million this weekend and come close to the Top 15. Lets see what position it could manage.

1. New Moon – $110 million
2. 2012 – $29.4 million
3. The Blind Side – $17.9 million
4. A Christmas Carol – $14.2 million
5. Planet 51 – $10.7 million
6. Precious – $8.0 million
7. The Men Who Stare at Goats – $2.9 million
8. Couples Retreat – $2.3 million

Paranormal Activity, This Is It and Law Abiding Citizen get $2.1 million each.

I think 2012 may have a decent hold. A Christmas Carol has the added advantage of 3D, so that should hold nicely.

New Moon- $87.5 million (weekend only)
2012- $31.7 (for all the guys who don't want to see New Moon)
Precious $20.0
The Blind Side -$19.2 million
A Christmas Carol 14.7

Ugh this really gets my goat.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118011668.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

I will be super pissed if this beats The Dark Knight's record. It might…if that happens I will lose all hope.

So far wrongturn687's box office prediction is spot on. See last Box Office Wrapup.

I don't think any movie in the history of cinema has made nearly $100 in it's opening weekend, and I'd be stunned if a sequel to Twilight were the movie to break that.

@Chris138: Up at 4AM, so I'll check to see if there's any way your statement can be said to be true. Looking at the Box Office Mojo site, I click on ALL TIME in the Box Office section in the left hand column. Under Weekend Records I click on Opening Weekends. These are all 3 day totals for the weekend and exclude wednesday and/or thursday numbers. Twilight will be the 13th title with a 3 day openening weekend total of over $100 million. Right now it looks like it will come in at third or fourth.

Looking at this list, I find I hadn't realized how recently potiential blockbusters began opening on thursdays, and then on wednesdays. It seems like it's been happening for a long time, but it hasn't.

according to Nikki Finke New Moon made 72 mil yesterday

Yeah, and Blind Side came in second at 10.9 million. I did terrible this weekend, methinks.

Damn…….I failed. New Moon= 72.7 million…….holy shit
Blind Side= 1.92 million

OOps ..Blind Side= 10.9 million…….all I can say for that is also Holy shit since I dont think I saw a single ad for the thing on TV.

@The Check Spot: I'm not 100% in agreement with your statement that "usually the sequel does better because it wins new fans…" It's too hard trying to figure out if people seeing it are fans. I skipped the first Transformers, but I saw ROTF on the invitation of a friend who wanted to see in on it's opening day. That's how I got roped into seeing Titanic three times before I figured out that it was basically a chic flick. If there was a Titanic 2, I would have tried to skip it. I could tell you about someone who lost one million television viewers per week after a perceived public mistep. Were those fans? I look for overall popularity. Has the popularity plateaued like Harry Potter? (yes, Potter fans, at a VERY high level) Is it in decline? Or is it accelerating? These things can be detected. Twilight's popularity is still accelerating. Will it plateau with this movie? We don't know yet. Let's see if it continues to dominate young peoples awards, and maybe even expand to older peoples awards. Let's see how popular the soundtrack musicians get. Let's see if Twilight's main characters can expand their popularity with other successful projects. Daniel Radcliffe, for instance hasn't been able to. His independent projects are seen by almost no one.

@Mayur: Commenter JAB said ads for TBS were all over sporting events. I saw one on Monday Night football.