2012 have a huge buzz on Europe, but i don´t see that on US. The movie is a action event if lots of special effects. I think this movie is a little hard to predict. What also is hard is A Christams Carol and Precius.

My Prediction:
1: 2012 – $51.2M
2: A Christmas Carol – $20.9M
3: The Men Who Stare At Goats – $7.3M
4: This is It – $6.4M
5: Precious – $5.4M

Next Weekend: New Moon will open on 4000 theaters, that is really huge!

(1. 2012-$45)
2. A Christ. Carol-$25*
3. This is It-$10
4. Men Who Stare at Goats-$7.5
5. The Fourth Kind- $7
6. The Box-$6.3
7. Paranormal Activity-$6
(8. Pirate Radio-$5.9)
9. Law Abiding Citizen-$4.2
10. Where the Wild Things Are-$3 or Precious-$3

1) 2012- $64.8 million
2) A Christmas Carol- $17.9 million
3) Michael Jackson's This Is It- $8.2 million
4) The Men Who Stare At Goats- $7.7 million
5) Precious- $7.4 million
6) The Fourth Kind- $5.6 million
7) Couples Retreat- $5.0 million
8) Paranormal Activity- $4.8 million
9) The Box- $4.4 million
10) Law Abiding Citizen- $3.7 million

Outside of the top 10-
Pirate Radio- $2.6 million

1.) 2012 – $61.5 mil
This movie would and should twice as much business as 10000 B.c… End of the World movies from Roland Emmerich always end up making the moolah.

2.) A Christmas Carol – $ 21 mil
Yes. I am only dropping it 30%. I think the $5m which it made on wednesday seem to be a sign of things to come. This movie should be holding up better from this point onwards. I dont think we can call it a commercial failure just yet.

3.) The Men Who Stare At Goats – $ 8.5 mil
4.) Pirate Radio – $ 8 mil
5.) This Is It – $ 7.5 mil
6.) The Fourth Kind – $ 6.5 mil
7.) Precious – $ 5.5 mil
8.) Paranormal Activity – $ 5 mil
9.) Couples Retreat – $ 4.6 mil
10.) Law Abiding Citizen – $ 4.2 mil

1. 2012 – $41 Million
2. A Christmas Carol – $16 Million
3. This Is It – $8 Million
4. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $7.5 Million
5. Precious – $5.7 Million
6. Paranormal Activity – $5.2 Million
7. The Fourth Kind – $4.9 Million
8. Couples Retreat – $4.5 Million
9. Pirate Radio – $4 Million
10. The Box – $3 Million

1. 2012=62.7mil. It's opening in roughly the same theater count as "The Day After Tomorrow," and the theatrical cut is about 30mins longer. At best, It could equal "Tomorrow's" 68mil 3-day (that was Memorial Weekend 04). I've seen predictions that I think are overly optimistic ranging from 75mil to 90mil opening in No. America. I'd entertain that if this was being actually released in 2012 to fully capitalize on the paranoia, but I still won't expect this to open that huge if that was the case.

2. A Christmas Carol= 19.1mil. It helps that it has most 3D screens to itself until Avatar.

3.This Is It= 8.4mil. There's still many who can't get enough of Michael Jackson.

4. The Men who stare at goats= 6.8mil. A pretty audacious and weird premise will seriously keep this from breaking out even with the star power attached.

5.The Fourth Kind=5.7mil

6. Precious= 5.5mil

1. 2012–$64.9mil. Roger Ebert says: "This is fun. '2012' delivers what it promises, and since no sentient being will buy a ticket expecting anything else, it will be, for its audiences, one of the most satisfactory films of the year." Actually, his entire review made ME want to see it in theaters (for the past few weeks I've been planning to see it for free when/if it comes to the Student Union at my college). The point that sold me was: "Emmerich gives us time to regard the effects and appreciate them, even savor them, unlike the ADD generation and its quick-cutting Bay-cams." Count me interested! I hope this one does well.

2. A Christmas Carol (2009)–$18.6mil. I'm putting it at a 38% drop right now. "2012" may steal a little competition, but not much. However, it won't hold as well as "The Polar Express." But, comes Thanksgiving weekend, it'll have a nice hold, maybe even an increase, if it keeps its theater count relatively high.

3. The Men Who Stare at Goats–$7.7mil. I used "The Informant!" as a sort of precedent. Both are adult-oriented comedies that got mixed reviews. The Informant only dropped 36%. I put this one at 39%.

4. Michael Jackson's This Is It–$6.8mil. Concert films never hold as well in their 3rd weekend as they do in their second. So I expect this film to half its business.

5. The Fourth Kind–$6.4mil. PG-13 horror films rarely fall much more than 50-55% the 2nd weekend, and many of them retain just over half of their business, as I believe this one will.

6. Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire–$4.7mil. For platform releases, the 2nd weekends normally take the biggest hit in per-theater-averages, but after that they hold considerably better. I can't wait to see how much steam "Precious" has.

7. Paranormal Activity–$4.5mil. It's past Halloween. Despite no new genre competition until January, I think its days of fantastic holds are behind it. But it's already a success, so it's no loss.

8. Couples Retreat–$4.4mil. While movies tend to hold better when the amount of new releases are small (there's two new wide releases this weekend, but it's more like 1, since "Pirate Radio" won't make anything), I think "2012" will appeal to a wide enough audience that we can't expect micro-drops similar to the weekend of Oct. 9 and July 11. This one will fall 28%. Apparently travel porn in the gloomy fall months is a great marketing scheme. Throw in some marital conflict, and everyone above 30 is interested… and it's the old crowd that delivers the best holds.

9. Law Abiding Citizen–$3.7mil.

10. The Box–$3.5mil. 54% drop. It'll lose at least half its business. If word of mouth is really bad (which I don't think it is, but I haven't been paying attention), it could drop 60% even. But I don't think that'll happen.

11. Pirate Radio–$3.2mil. Yup, it's not even making the top 10. No buzz, no advertisement, and people in Europe are calling this "The Boat That Sunk" (in reference to its international title, "The Boat That Rocked").

@JM: Ebert is slightly off his rocker where 2012 is concerned, and that's said as a longtime Ebert fan. 2012 is decent, but not great. It really falls apart near the end.

I would also respectfully contest your "horror films dropping less" theory. Horror films are heavily frontloaded as it's the same folks seeing all of them. They come early (if they come) and then fall off the map.

But good stuff overall, I appreciate your input.

1) 2012 – 58.2 M
2) A Christmas Carol – 19.3 M
3) The Men Who Stare at Goats – 8.3 M
4) This Is It – 7.9 M
5) Precious – 6.3 M

I know I said maybe low-40millions for 2012 last week, but the ads have been everywhere, the buzz is high, and unlike "10,000 BC", this movie's has actual stars in it, the always likable "destroying the world" gimmick, and some marginally decent reviews are coming out (Ebert's is of course the most surprising one).

I say $59 million, although it could come close (or even beat) "The Day after Tomorrow"'s first three days.

With "Goats", I'm giving it a Leatherheads type drop- somewhere in the low-50% range. It's been doing alright during the weekdays, but most of the people who wanted to see it did so last week.

Also, I don't think "Carol" will drop much more than 35% from its opening weekend. Even though there was a holiday this week, it's still holding up well on the weekdays.

I'm expecting $60M for "2012" on the strength of the trailers I saw. And the reviews aren't so bad that they drag the movie down — even the negative reviews often say that the film delivers what it promises (but nothing else in terms of plot or characterization).

And the strong Veterans Day box for "A Christmas Carol" suggests there are still plenty of parents around who want to take their (not-too-young) kids to see it. $22M.

"Goats" will place 3rd. And "Pirate Radio" will do better than expected, placing around seventh.

@Vince:

Wow, my grammar's horrible. Sorry dudes.

I think you understand the gist of what I'm trying to say though.

2012 – 63 million
Christmas Carol- 18 million
Men who stare at goats- 6.5 million
This is it- 7 million

Dont know how many theaters Precious is gaining so…..

1. 2012 – $58.2 Million
2. A Christmas Carol – $17.7 Million
3. Precious – $7.1 Million
4. The Fourth Kind – $6.6 Million
5. Goat-Staring Men – $6.1 Million
6. This Is It – $5.8 Million
7. Pirate Radio – $5.5 Million
8. The Box – $4.0 Million
9. Paranormal Activity – $3.9 Million
10. Couple's Retreat – $3.8 Million
11. Law Abiding Citizen – $2.9 Million
12. Where the Wild Things Are – $2.3 Million

Again, made these before looking at any other predictions (although predictions for 2012 were impossible to avoid), and it looks like I'm predicting a much, much higher total box office than you this weekend. With the economy the way it is, I think I may be headed for a shut-down. Although my weakness is usually underestimating, so it'll be interesting for me to get these results back.

As to the orders – I think 2012 is going to steal a chunk of Couple's Retreat money (no, really!), a chunk of Fourth Kind, and a chunk of Paranormal Activity. As to Precious – I think Oprah reigns supreme.

@Mayur: Precious is going from 18 theaters to 176 theaters

Don't think that 2012 will be as big as too past the 50 million. It might, but I just dont see it happening. This kind of movies-end of the world ones-can go either way, they can really hit it off the park or just not do as much as expected… Christmas Carol wont drop as much, I still have it on the low 20's… And precious, looking at the great per/theater average its been having for the whole week a good 50,000 per theater could be a good "surprise". Im giving the 11th position to Pirate Radio, it might go either way with "The Box" or "Pirate", so we ll see…

1. 2012 – 45.7
2. The Christmas Carol – 21.2
3. Precious – 9.5
4. The Men who Stare at Goats – 9.1
5. This Is It – 7.9
6.The Fourth Kind – 6.4
7. Paranormal Activity – 5.0
8.Law Abiding Citizens – 4.8
9.Couples Retreat – 4.7
10. The Box – 3.8
11. Pirate Radio – 3.6

1. 2012 – $71.2 million (going all bald today, but I seriously believe it's going to perform in the vein of other non-summer blockbusters like 300, Fast and Furious and I Am Legend)
2. A Christmas Carol – $21.0 million
3. This Is It – $7.8 million
4. The Men Who Stare at Goats – $7.3 million
5. Precious – $6.8 million
6. The Fourth Kind – $5.8 million
7. Paranormal Activity – $5.1 million (where the hell is the theater count for this? don't really like to pull the numbers out of my ass, but what else can I do)
8. Pirate Radio – $4.3 million
9. Couples Retreat – $4.0 million
10. The Box – $3.9 million

Pirate Radio could suprise us as Borat had an open weekend of $26 million despite only showing on 850 screens.

Pirate Radio could by the word of mouth hit of November, now that Nine is pushed back.

@Jezza: It's nice to see your enthusiasm for this film. But I was wondering who their target audience was. Is it the people who went to see taking Woodstock? It's definitely not people under 25 who will either say people need to get over the sixties already, or don't even know what pirate radio was or why people just didn't broadcast over the internet? I've read it shows male/female relations in conflict, so it's not a typical date movie. Judging from what is technically a wide release, though a limited one, the studio and I are in agreement that this film will do limited business. Like you though, they are apparantly hoping for an unexpected breakout. Maybe it will find legs as a comedy? Good Luck.

2012= a million bazzilion dollars!!!

1. 2012: $52.2 million, I'm guessing a solid first week but WOM and New Moon will lead to at least a 60% drop.
2. A Christmas Carol: $18.7 million, I'm going to guess legs are a bit weaker because of the lack of kid friendly material and competition from 2012. I really hope this give Zemekis a hint about the animation. ($60 million in 10 days on a $200 million budget not good.)
3. This Is It: $ 9.8 million, I got into a big argument whether Hanna Montana was bigger then MJ, I think the movie's longevity will prove my point.
4. The Men Who Stare At Goats $7.4 million, Business should turn out like the film, respectable but not great.
5. Precious: $5.7 million: This is going to be another big week and I cannot think of a better film for this to happen to this year.

1. 2012 – $65M This movie should do outstanding for its opening, in fact I think this is kind of lowballing it. The movie itself is okay, though it should've been two hours at the most. The ending seemed to go on forever. But people want a hit, no, they demand a hit. And this one will be that hit. Also, will be John Cusack's biggest opening weekend ever. Took him long enough.

2. A Christmas Carol – $19.2M Really, it's not Disney's Christmas Carol. They added zero new to the film. Not too disastrous a drop but I don't see it making more than $125 million domestic.

3. The Men That Stare at Goats – $7.3M

4. Precious – $6.7 M I saw this movie last weekend, and I'm still thinking about it. I thought about it while watching 2012. This movie will blow up when it gets released wide Thanksgiving weekend. Oprah is a very powerful woman. We won't go see the movie she's in (Beloved) but we'll go see anything she tells us to.

5. Michael Jackson This is It – $6.5M

6. The Fourth Kind – $5.2M
7. Paranormal Activity – $4.6M
8. Couples Retreat – $4.1M
9. The Box – $3.8M

10. Pirate Radio – $2.7M So, I live in New York, have a lot of movie afficianados for friends and only a small amount has heard of this film. Um, I don't think it's got the Borat sized word of mouth that a previous commenter had said. Should fail in this country as it has been doing in other countries.

@mfan: Reviews are warmer than 2012 at the moment.

@mfan: Actually Older Women have a thing for Rhys Ifans, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman is popular. Maybe it could be a suprise oscar contender of 2009. Afterall Four Weddings and A Funeral was nominated one time.

46.5

2012 52.8 million

@Jezza: Perhaps an Oscar nomination could extend the shelflife of Pirate Radio, and maybe positive reviews will help it. As for 2012, most frequent moviegoers probably made up their minds whether to see it as much as two months ago. That's when web search volume for this movie started making the lists of top searches. Four months befor Transformers ROTF came out, I asked people at work what movie they wanted to go see, and quite a number said ROTF. They had already made up their minds to see it.

A movie I have already made up my mind to see next April 2 is "The Last Song" with Miley Cyrus. I promised John Debono I wouldn't bring her up unless it was relevant, but I noticed he did, so I feel I can. "This Is It" has not acted like the concert films I am familiar with. Should we put it in a category of memorial films? It's been amazing. Now we'll see if The Last Song can outgross it. Miley will outgross Michael domestically, but Michael's worldwide gross will be tough as I'm only predicting $260-$300 million worldwide for Miley. But it's not a direct comparison, and it's not a competition, right? Miley's going into Rock and Roll anyway, so comparisons with Michael will become pointless.

@blargface: You made me laugh!!! It's nice to see your enthusiasm for 2012, too. Maybe this film will singlehandedly juice the economy, and pay off the national debt! : )

@mfan: Sorry about that, let the ego get the best of me.

@mfan: The same couldn't be said for The Hangover. Nobody anticipated The Hangover prior to it's release.

@Jezza: Your optimism is appreciated, but let's face it, Pirate Radio was never going to make it big. It made $1 million on Friday and is looking at a $3 million weekend. I don't know what exactly makes you so hopeful and optimistic, but it's time to get real. PR was never going to be Borat or The Hangover, and turns out, it is not. End of story.

Pirate Radio might have some decent legs. Saw it yesterday night. Granted it was a Friday night at one of the biggest theaters in the surrounding 20 mile area, but the theater was full and it seemed like everyone but me applauded at the end. I thought it was decent. Good acting, good characters, but the story just didn't have the sort of arc that differentiates it from the good to the great.

Movieretriever.com picked The Hangover to be the sleeper hit of the summer, but they only imagined it would gross $75 million. I'll probably skip Pirate Radio, but I have no doubt the acting in it is solid. Why do the British seem to have better acting per person than the U.S. Is it a sense of pride and tradition?

@Nick: If reality is so great, why are we on a site about fictional movies? People who are not hopeful and optimistic can often be found in psyche wards and mental hospitals. Jezza is not alone in waiting for the next Paranormal Activity. It seem like a great many people so liked the underdog success narrative of it's climb to the top that they can't wait for the sequel. The current favorite for a repeat is "Precious." Let me give you a dose of reality. The very thing that makes Precious a film with momentum, namely two relatively fervent groups the movie panders to, limits it's potential. People hoping Oprah fans and Tyler Perry fans will flock to this movie in huge numbers are kidding themselves. Do you feel better now?

I didn't mean Oprah fans and Tyler Perry fans are the groups 'Precious' panders to. That probably would have been a more successful movie.