Box-Office Oracle: May 8 – May 10, 2009
Star Trek will dominate. But can it hit $90m?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks in a Row
1. Star Trek
Internet folks seem to have Star Trek opening anywhere from $72-$74m. I'm taking it much higher, $24k per theater, completely ignoring the historical precedent of May and previous Star Trek titles. My logic is this: great reviews, a still-hungry public, and 40 years of free marketing building up to this precise moment in history. Plus the IMAX dollars. And I've got Thursday's showings bunched in here too, as it doesn't start until 7pm.
If I'm wrong I'll take solace in the fact that it will hit at least $80m, beating expectations, and it will have solid word-of-mouth to propel it into its second weekend. Either way I'm looking forward to many more Abrams-helmed Star Trek films.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: We also got an exclusive new image from the film featuring Chris Pine as Kirk. You can check it out in the gallery right here. It's the last one if you don't want to click through all 70 pics.
Estimate: $92.4 million
This factors in a drop of 55.5%, which would make it far better off than X-Men: The Last Stand's disastrous 67% dip. The film has made $178m worldwide as of this writing, so it still has a great chance to beat The Last Stand's $460m cume too.
Estimate: $37.9 million
3. Next Day Air
It only has 1138 theaters, and the predictions aren't very bullish, but I think the audience is there.
Estimate: $9.1 million
Has no real competition in its demo. If you want date night, and she's not buying Trek, then this is your fallback position. At least a million people will make that decision this weekend.
Estimate: $8.7 million
5. Obsessed
Stands at $50m on a budget of $20m. Plus the marketing budget couldn't have been much. A definite "small ball" win for Sony.
Estimate: $4.9 million
6. The Soloist
Here's a good proposition bet: Will slots 2-10 combined make as much money as Star Trek? Right now I've those nine movies at $78.6m, a full $13.6m behind. But clearly it could go either way. What a strange phenomenon; Two screens per theater will be mobbed. Everything else in the house will be wide open.
Estimate: $3.8 million
Monsters vs. Aliens is the number one 3-D film of all time. By about $30 million actually, it's not even close. So store that away for future trivia contests, eh?
Estimate: $3.5 million
8. 17 Again
It's at $77m worldwide, meaning it's got a great chance at $100m. Is Zac Efron the most profitable star in Hollywood? Those HSM films he made grossed around 25 times what they cost to produce.
Estimate: $3.4 million
9. Earth
What throws me is the $85m its made internationally. Were the BBC DVDs not available in Germany or Japan?
Estimate: $2.3 million
This one just passed The Best of Both Worlds at the box-office, but it remains a uniquely American phenomenon. I wonder if that's a distribution issue… or a taste one?
Estimate: $2.0 million
What are your Star Trek predictions? Any wild notions out there about how I'm all wrong?
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