#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row
1. Up
I've put it at Wall-E numbers, per theater. I don't know what else to do with it. I consider a non-talking robot and an older fella to be about the same, marketing-wise. It has less theaters, comes a month earlier on the schedule, and it's against stronger competition (week 2 of Night at the Museum). But with all that said, I think it's about the same deal.
Estimate: $59.5 million
The first one fell over 47% in a weekend… but only after it had been out 23 weeks. I've got this doing much worse, I see it falling 47% this weekend alone.
Estimate: $28.7 million
In an IM conversation on Drag Me to Hell's box-office chances, Brad brought up The Strangers, and how he felt this film didn't look at all like that one, and so I'm pegging it at exactly the same number. It's my newfangled "do the opposite" theory. I think it's going to work out nicely.
Estimate: $21.4 million
I'm only dipping it 53%, but only because it did so poorly last weekend. My working theory is that the people still seeing it are immune to peer pressure, critical opinions, or good film. The heart wants what it wants, I suppose.
Estimate: $20.0 million
5. Star Trek
Six films are going to hit double digts. The other four will barely hit $12m combined. Welcome to the wonderful world of have and have-nots.
Estimate: $12.8 million
It's around $200m gross worldwide cume. Which means it doesn't have a prayer in hell of hitting Da Vinci Code's $758m.
Estimate: $12.3 million
7. Dance Flick
These things have a proud tradition of tanking in weekend two. I see no reason why this one is any different.
Estimate: $4.8 million
I want to see a Professor X origin story. I imagine it would look a lot like The English Patient meets Remains of the Day. Jean Luc Picard shout-out!
Estimate: $3.3 million
They should have advertised this as a true story. It could have banked in the starved horror demo.
Estimate: $1.6 million
Whoa, a film with only 148 theaters cracking the top ten? Yep. Summit is actually handling this film perfectly, a slow burn release schedule buffered by vocal critic / word of mouth love.
Estimate: $1.5 million
What do you think? Any glaring issues with my top ten? You know I'm always reading the comments, so weigh right in.
i look forward to every Thursday just so i can see what your predictions are and i find your comments very interesting, as usual. I've been keeping up with your predictions for quite a while and i will for a long time. But i just don't see 'The Brothers Bloom' landing at no. 10, maybe somewhere above the top 14?
Next weekend will be a slow weekend, in my opinion, but i think 'Up' will be the reigning champion again, making somewhere between $24 – $35 million? While 'Land of the Lost' will come in somewhere in the top 3, most likely in second place, because not a whole lot of people cared for Will Farrel's last comedy, 'Step Brothers'. Plus the 'sexual content' that is in the rating likely won't help it much becuase it has been proven that when sex is somewhere in the rating, the film most likely won't do too well. Although when it says 'brief' or 'some sex', then that really doesn't matter as much to most audiences.
lol jean luc pecard!!!
@Matthew Wilson: Thanks for reading Mattthew.
I also think your take on Land of the Lost could be accurate, I personally thought Step Brothers was pretty dumb. I've been hearing a lot of good things about The Hangover, but it looks pretty hardcore too.
@Matthew Wilson:
Actually "Step Brothers" did relatively well- better than the other, far more hyped R-rated comedies such as "Semi-Pro", "Pineapple Express" and "Forgetting Sarah Marshall". It broke $100 million, and that's with mixed reviews, Ferrell's recent bomb at the box office (the aforementioned "Semi Pro") and large competition.
But we are not talking about "Brothers", we're talking "Land of the Lost" correct? Well…it's all over the place for me. I have no idea how they're marketing this film. Is it an action movie? A special effects adventure like "Journey to the Center of the Earth"? A screwball comedy? I have no idea, and I think audiences are confused as well. That's why I think it'll be the first "bomb" of the year. It'll open to maybe $25-28 million but die off after that. It could hold on if word of mouth is really good and if there are honestly no comedy pictures that will come out…oh wait, forgot about the two sleeper hits in waiting "The Hangover" and "The Proposal", even "Year One" has better prospects and hype than "Land" does.
So yeah. Speaking of "Hangover"- it'll open $20 million plus (which is excellent considering it has no big-name stars and is a R-rated comedy) and hold on for the rest of the summer. I'll be surprised if it doesn't clear $80 million by the end of its run.
I already posted my predictions about "Up" and "Drag me" on last weeks column but long story short : "Up"=61 million, "Drag Me"= breakout horror hit= $28 million
I think opening weekend anyway UP will do better then Wall-E. People know of UP a lot longer then Wall-E, and UP has more wow factor in the trailers and commercials then Wall-E. And maybe an older generation might show up for this.
Funny story from this weekend. Went to theater twice over weekend. Heard many questions and complains because NATM was not in Imax "3D". I think Imax adds little to a movie myself unless it's in 3D and for sure is not worth the extra, like 3D is (to me anyway).
3766 theaters for Up, down from 3992 from Wall-E last year. But, Wall-E did not have the benefit of 1500 3D screens. I predict…
1. UP=68mil (20mil Fri, 27mil Sat, 21mil Sun)
2. NatM2=25mil
3. Drag me to Hell=25mil
4. Terminator Salvation= 18.5mil
5. Star Trek=12mil
Early predictions for next week:
Word of mouth will help both UP and Drag me to Hell, and both will hold on strong. I see Land of the Lost pulling a Love Guru and be the first colossal bomb of the summer. Up remains no.1 with around 35-40mil, Drag me to Hell holds well with 16mil, and Land of the Lost struggles to get to the low to mid 30mil range.
Laremy, once again you look spot-on with most films. Except I have a feeling Termy is going to crash.
Up: $58M
NATM: $27.5M
DMTH: $25M
TS: $16.5M
ST: $13.5M
1) UP: 77 Million (My high estimate. I think it looks more accesible than "Wall.E" did to little ones but still witty and smart enough for the adult crowd.)
2) Night at the Museum 2: 35 Million (It will keep making money, artistic integrity will keep becoming less important, I keep dieing inside.)
3) Drag Me to Hell: 24 million (Sam Raimi's name doesn't really mean a whole lot to the masses, he's better known as "from the guy that directed spider man", but it does mean a lot to a rather rabid group of die hard fans. I expect it to do well and have long legs)
4) Terminator Salvation: 19 Million (Not a good movie, not a good second week, not good for the rest of the trilogy)
5) Star Trek: 16 Million (Honestly great film, it's everything summer movies are supposed to be; Fun and big without compromising intelligence and storytelling)
oops, my no. 2 and 3 should read:
2. NatM2=25.5mil
3. Drag me to Hell=25mil
MY PREDICTIONS.
1. UP – $68.7 million
This one really does look more accessible and friendly than "WALL-E". It looks much brighter, high-spirited, silly-looking and childish (I doubt the actual movie is childish though), adventurous, and actually has many interesting things to alternate between in marketing (while WALL-E just kept showing the robot and same clips over and over again, and didn't really show a plot in promotions). I think it'll do just swell and make a mint at the box office, following in the shoes of "Star Trek". Plus, 3-D does NOT hurt.
2. NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2 – $26.6 million
I hear it's actually bearable. Still decided to skip it though. UP will keep it from rolling strong though.
3. DRAG ME TO HELL – $23.5 million
Looks really dark and crazy for a PG-13. In fact, I hope people know it's actually PG-13 and not a strong, brutal R. Either way, it should do decently this weekend with that massive, reliable horror audience we all know full well of.
4. TERMINATOR: SALVATION – $20.1 million
Ouch, what happened to this one? My thoughts on it? NOTHING NEW AT ALL. Nothing fresh, nothing special. Period. And that's probably the word that's spreading. Audiences want something fun, fresh, and original… none of this darkness. Hasta la vista, Terminator. You're lucky if you pass $120 million.
5. STAR TREK – $14.7 million
Currently holds the title of 'Best Movie of the Summer'. UP might snatch it away, but this is the official sure thing.
As for this LAND OF THE LOST negativeness…. believe it or not, PARENTS ARE STUPID. If they see dinosaurs and silly looking creatures and big adventure, they'll take the kids. People pay attention to the RATING, but they NEVER pay attention to the reason (apparently tons of actual smart friends of mine, didn't expect graphic nudity in "Watchmen', even though the reason warned). Since when did PG-13 keep parents from taking their kids to movies? Helloooooo? SPIDER-MAN, anyone? LAND OF THE LOST won't bomb, but it won't do mind-blowing numbers either. I'll be checking out too. No way will Ferrell go to the grave like Myers (like someone said). $45 million tops, $30 million lowest. I'll be checking it out. Word of mouth is super strong, and it looks like a lot of classic summertime fun. HANGOVER will do swell too and make about $20-25 mill. Should be a nice weekend at the box office.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone! I'll be seeing UP twice this weekend. Be blessed! Live long and prosper!
:]
Up will rule with close to 70mil. Drag me to hell will find it's place in the low 20s. Like what was said at an earlier post, both films will have strong legs due to good word of mouth much like Star Trek. As for Land of the Lost, i hear no buzz whatsoever regarding this one, and the response to the theater previews over the past month have been a collective "meh." It is not a lock to be no.1, for Up will stay strong in it's 2nd week with around 30mil.
Up with 75mil will win. Natm will edge out Drag me to Hell, 28mil to 23mil for 2nd. As for Land of the Lost next week, does anybody still find Will Ferrell funny?!? Land of the Lost will top out at barely 30mil
Well. been really shorttt about this wekk's numbers:
Up – 67.2
Night at the Museum – 27.8
Drag me to Hell – 25.4
Terminator Salvation – 19.8
Star Trek – 13.9
Next week early predictions:
Land of the Lost – 35.7
Few numbers less than Get Smart…
Up – 32.6
Huge word of mouth
The Hangover – 20.5
People are really talking good things about this one. A lot of hype.
okkk forget about Land of the Lost 35 opening…
Up – 34.1
Land of the Lost – 29.2
1. UP: 69mil
Marketing is much stronger than Wall-E (UP has been pretty much all over the place a month ago), 1530+ 3D screens, and a more kid friendly film by a mile compared to Ratatouille and Wall-E (Both of which were superb films If I may add).
2. Night at the Museum: 26mill
This is going to get kneecapped this weekend
3. Drag me to Hell: 22.5mil
It will find some daylight this weekend.
4. Terminator Salvation: 18.5mil
Producers better be begging James Cameron to return to salvage this franchise.
5. Star Trek: 13mil
Superb film inside and out.
Much like Trek, Both UP and Drag me to Hell will play strongly in the following weeks/weekends. The excellent word of mouth from both critics, fanboys, and casual moviegoers will ensure a long run in the top 10. Don't be surprised if UP remains no.1 for a 2nd week.
ok, am i the only person who has drag Me To Hell placed at #2?!
come on! there hasnt been a horror film for a good month, great reviews,a great comeback for a master of the genre- $30m!
and i think Up will get $65m-can't wait!
#1. Up $65 Mil
#2. DMTH $25 Mil
#3. NATM $20 Mil
#4. Terminator $17 Mil
#5. Star Trek $14 Mil
your prediction about Brothers Bloom is bold…but not realistic.
Laremy i think you are underestimating Drag Me To Hell, i think it can easily gross about 25 or more, upwards to 30 mill…Up should crack the 60 mill mark as it's more of a comedy than an enviromental story..
Hey Laremy,
Can still see you're hurting over that 5-weeks-in-a-row streak being broken. Guess it was bound to be tested with a showdown like last weekend. Your numbers looks good, sound logic as always.
My opinion:
-I'm guessing Up's going a little higher (WOW, didn't intend that pun) with mid-60s. The 3-D effect will factor in for that.
-I'm thinking even with its astounding reviews, Drag Me to Hell will lose by a hair to T4 in its second weekend.
-I expect Star Trek to drop a little more. It's dropping 500+ theatres (the week after it lost all its IMAX screens). Plus, at the theatre I work that, less families are seeing Star Trek now that NatM 2 and especially Up are released. Plus, it has yet to have a steep drop, so I think this is the weekend for it to happen.
Also next weekend, I'm thinking The Hangover will play out like Wedding Crashers or Knocked Up: where we see a good opening for an R-rated summer comedy, then everyone's gonna see it and it's going to have ridiculously good holds thanks to wildfire word-of-mouth. (That's of course, if the huge positive hype for it rings true when we, along with critics, get to see it.)
Let's not bury Land of the Lost yet. People like me have fond memories of the TV show, where in hindsight was not that good, but back in the day, it was different then any other show on Saturday morning at the time. I think they seem to have that vibe where they will not take it's self not to serious, so it might be fine.
i didn't know that a show like that existed but i am still excited about it and i am going to see it…i don't think it will flop like most people think
1.) Up – $72milion
Sure it has lesser screens than Wall-E. But then this one looks more attractive than Wall-E. Wall-E didnt really look attractive pre-release. People were waiting for Word Of Mouth for that. I believe that wont happen in this case. it should make around 19k per theater.
2.) Drag Me to Hell – $32million
I have this one making around 14k per theater(same as Friday The 13th)
Sam Raimi+ Good Trailer+ May Release+ Great Reviews… I think those are enough reasons
3.) Night At The Museum – $25 million
It will lose audience this weekend. I think a large number of people who wanted to see it, have done so already.
4.) Terminator Salvation – $ 22million
I think the lesson is learnt. You cant just use the name Terminator and make a senseless movie hoping that the audience will come. I think this is another franchise in need of a reboot… i hope J.J Abrams is reading this :)
5.) Angels & Demons – $ 14 million
I still dont know why this movie didnt click at the Box-Office… It actually is much better than The Da Vinci Code… Well… Box Office can be surprising
@Athar: Angels and Demons wasn't supposed to "click" it was never as successful as The Da Vinci Code, the book that is. Besides, Angels and Demons is more of an international move, not really a stateside one…
1. UP- $57.2 million
I think WALL-E is a bit more marketable than UP, actually; I think kids would rather see a movie about curious robots than grumpy old men. And let's not forget that May is usually a better month for sequels and action flicks than kids movies; kids movies released in May usually flop (see Kicking and Screaming or Speed Racer). However, Up is opening at the end of May, which is usually very good for kids movies; Madascar, Over The Hedge, and Finding Nemo all opened up to big numbers. So, while UP won't reach huge numbers, it will have a solid opening.
2. Drag Me To Hell- $26.3 million
As has been said, there hasn't been a horror film for two months. And a horror film that has received outstanding reviews? This one should open solidly, and than have very long legs.
3. Night At The Museum- $26.1 million
It probably shouldn't have opened a week before UP. Also, mixed buzz won't help it; Night At The Museum 2 may have opened bigger than it's proceeder, but no way in hell will it outgross it in the end.
4. Terminator Salvation- $17.4 million
My theory? People didn't want to see a depressing, post-apocalyptic movie in an economic crisis. Everyone wants to see Star Trek. It doesn't even concern our planet, really.
5. Star Trek- $11.9 million
Once all of the action fans hear that Terminator Salvation sucks, they'll go to see this again. However, it is starting to lose theaters, so this might be its last week grossing double digits.
For next week, I see Land Of The Lost raking in a solid amount, but then dropping. Will Ferrell isn't as big a box-office draw as he was a couple years ago.
You know what, Benji? I'm gonna join you. A lot has changed between yesterday and today… I've seen overwhelmingly glowing reviews for "Drag Me to Hell" and plenty of older moviegoers will be curious as to what all the positivity surrounding that movie is about. So I'm gonna bump it a notch, over Night at the Museum. I'm also slightly lifting up the gross for UP, as I'm seeing buzzing excitement across the board for it, while I didn't see this amount of enthusiasm when "WALL*E" came out. Audiences will be massive for this flick, with Saturday being the busiest day of course, and although on Sunday, the numbers will read "UP gets $70.1 million for the weekend!", it'll be a slight overestimation and settle down a few thousand lower. And if you didn't see my reasons as to why each flick will perform this way, you can scroll up to my previous post.
UPDATED FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND!
1. UP – $69.8 million
2. DRAG ME TO HELL – $26.8 million
3. NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2 – $26.5 million
4. TERMINATOR: SALVATION – $20.4 million
5. STAR TREK – $14.7 million
Finally, I don't like all this negativity you guys are slapping onto LAND OF THE LOST. It definitely doesn't look that bad. I'm gonna check it out because honestly… it looks like tons and tons of fun. And I think audiences will follow suit. I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and give an actual early set prediction. It's SUMMER! and audiences are in the mood for ADVENTURE and LAUGHS, which is why UP, LAND OF THE LOST and THE HANGOVER will be doing so strongly. It's why STAR TREK and NATM2 are doing so well too!
EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 5-7
1. LAND OF THE LOST – $39.6 million
2. UP – $37.9 million
3. THE HANGOVER – $24.4 million
4. DRAG ME TO HELL – $14.3 million
5. NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2 – $12.0 million
I have no doubt in my mind that next weekend will be as equally steady a weekend as this one. June is gonna be strong this year. Land of the Lost will hold up well, seeing as how the week after it debuts, it only has an R-rated adult Denzel Washington flick to deal with, and that silly-looking Eddie Murphy movie (although "Imagine That" definitely shouldn't do as terribly as "Meet Dave" or "Pluto Nash"). Land of the Lost or Up will take the crown for June 12-14.
Once again, have a wonderful weekend. I'm seeing UP tomorrow morning at the El Capitan for free. Beautiful.
:]!