Filed under: Box-Office News

Box-Office Oracle: May 1 – May 3, 2009

Of course Wolverine is winning. But by how much?

#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
I've got it at Iron Man minus eight percent; I can't accurately judge if people are as excited to see it. It's helped a ton by the fact that it's first, but Star Trek looks like it's going to be helped by the fact that it's better. So it's a one week and done situation for ol' Wolvie.
Estimate: $90.2 million
This exact scenario played out last May too, with Made of Honor in this spot. However, this should do around $5m more because Matt McConaughey is bigger than Patrick Dempsey… and the title Made of Honor is horrifically stupid.
Estimate: $19.1 million
It's going to plummet to Earth like a meteor. Bank on it.
Estimate: $10.7 million
It held up better than expected last weekend, it will crack $70m this weekend. That's not too shabby for a couple of writers and whatever it costs to rent a high school gym.
Estimate: $6.0 million
I don't see Battle for Terra doing real damage. Not enough theaters. Oh dear, now what am I going to talk about when I get to that title?
Estimate: $4.7 million
I'm dipping it 57 percent because of the youth demographic. The younger the audience, the more instantly they see (and discard) it.
Estimate: $4.5 million
It's made $11m so far. That's what the studios call a "yikes" at the box-office. My guess is they've stopped printing posters and promotional material by this point.
Estimate: $4.4 million
This is the most "adult" kid's film to come along in years. Sadly, it's also only at 1159 theaters. Meaning it's doomed.
Estimate: $4.1 million
Earth is doing great on the weekdays. But when the weekends roll around the movie fanatics move in.
Estimate: $3.9 million
It's going to be very close for this tenth slot, State of Play could foil my plans.
Estimate: $3.4 million

Who you got? Are you bold enough to predict Wolverine above $100 million? Or conservative enough to knock it down below $90 million? Sound off in the comments, it's your chance to make me look silly come Sunday.


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Post #1
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First weekend of summer, I'm predicting boldly. Going with early $100 mill for Wolverine, maybe around 104. If it does significantly lower than that, than those who argue that reviews make or break a movie can yell it from the rooftops. That 35% on Rotten Tomatoes is UG-LY for it.

- Eli
( May 1st, 2009 | 2:11 am )
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Post #2
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wolverine for $80m
i pegged BFT at #5 but i wasnt aware of the theatre count..doh!

- ben
( May 1st, 2009 | 2:56 am )
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Post #3
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I know little about the X-man series, so I would say lower, but my local theater has 26! showings of it Friday, and they usually know what they are doing. So I have no idea. I don't see a buzz like Star Trek for it, except all the commercials, and to me, the "Origins" just means they replaced higher paid actors from the movies before to new younger, cheaper talent.

- Steve
( May 1st, 2009 | 3:05 am )
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Post #4
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I think Wolverine will make something in the low-$80M range.

- NackAttack
( May 1st, 2009 | 5:42 am )
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Post #5
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1. X-Men Origins: Wolverine- $96.1 million
Uh, no, Ghost of Girlfriends Past is going to blow past expectations and win. This one is a forgone conclusion. I have nothing to say that has not already been said somewhere. So… off to the #2 slot.

2. Ghost of Girlfriends Past- $14.5 million
I keep typing this title wrong. Here are some of my mess-ups: "Ghosts of Girlfriend's Pasts", "Ghost of a Girlfriend's Past", "Ghosts of Girlfriend Pasts" and "That dumb-looking movie that stars the guy from Tropic Thunder and the girl from Juno". Anyways, this ought to bring in the female demographics, so it will probably score #2. But I wouldn't be surprised if Obsessed only drops one slot.

3. Obsessed- $13.4 million
I kind of want to see this now that I know what it's about… but when it comes between this and Wolverine, Wolverine has got to come out on top. Sorry Beyonce, nothing personal, Hugh Jackman is just so kick-ass.

4. 17 Again- $5.7 million
I was disappointed that this one didn’t gross $17 million on its opening weekend. That would’ve pleased me on two levels. First off, it’d fit in with the theme. Second of all, I just don’t like Zac Efron. So the less his movies make, the better.

5. Earth- $5.6 million
17 Again and Earth could easily switch places, but even if this one drops 35%, and 17 Again drops 50%, 17 Again still comes out on top. So I'm saying it'll come in at #5 for the second weekend in a row. Pity, too. It was a good movie.

6. Monsters Vs. Aliens- $5.1 million
Can America please stop seeing this movie, at my personal request? First off, it's a bad film, and second of all, I'm sick of finding it in the top 6 EVERY FRICKIN WEEK!!!!!! But hey, I'm just one guy. So I guess only a couple thousand people will obey me.

7. The Soloist- $5.0 million
Anyone else catch Jamie Foxx on American Idol yesterday night? He was talking about the bottom 2, and then immediately veered off subject and told everyone to go see The Soloist. It was funny and awkward, anyways.

8. State of Play- $4.1 million
Maybe I'm stretching for this one. Maybe It'll come in at ninth, or even tenth. But I'm hoping that America will come to their senses and go out and see this spectacular movie. A guy can always dream, can't he?

9. Fighting- $4.0 million
Well, it probably wasn't a wise move to position this one to come out a week before X-Men. So Rogue Pictures only have themselves to blame.

10. Hannah Montana: The Movie- $3.3 million
Huh. It’s at $70 million worldwide as of now. If they make a sequel, I’m leaving the country.

- Bustray
( May 1st, 2009 | 5:57 am )
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Post #6
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Um… Battle for Terra will not be in the top 10.

- JAB
( May 1st, 2009 | 9:57 am )
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Post #7
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$96 million for "Wolverine." Polls put it at slightly less anticipated than X-Men. Sadly, if its reviews are anything to go by, the holds will be just as bad if not worse. Especially considering that "Star Trek" comes out next weekend, and everyone's interested in seeing it (even non-fans; the great advance reviews also help). Wolverine's second weekend drop is something I'm not looking forward to witnessing. But actually, I'm seeing it in its second weekend, not its first. I come down from college next Thursday, and my brother and I are seeing it. From what the reviews say, I will likely only want to see it once, so I'm waiting until then.

- JM
( May 1st, 2009 | 10:48 am )
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Post #8
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Wolvy – 95.3

Ghost of Girlfriend Past – 21.9

Battle for Terra – 3.8

- Sebastian
( May 1st, 2009 | 1:03 pm )
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Post #9
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I'll just predict the NEW movies this weekend. Don't care for all those "spring" movies. It's summer movie season, baby.. and they're all goners.

1. X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE – $95.8 million
My gut feeling is to keep it in the mid 80's, but I'm gonna go ahead and bet a bit higher. Summer Movie Season is finally here and it's time to return to the movies again! Mid 80's or mid 90's, either way – moviegoers will be coming out in masses. Come on… it's Wolverine. It's Marvel. It's got superheroes. It's a summer action movie. That's about all the convincing I need to see it. It looks awesome. Sure, STAR TREK will mop the floor with it next weekend, but for now… WOLVERINE dominates.

2. GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST – $24.1 million
What poor guy will be dragged to this instead of Wolverine? My guess is that it's audience will come from the flock of girls on their Friday night out, or the couples will be seeing dos this weekend… GOGP first, and then onto the main event – WOLVERINE. This one should do quite well. Don't doubt the chick flick. Or Matthew McCoughnahey.

I will of course be seeing WOLVERINE. =]

Happy Summer Movie Season everyone! Have a stellar weekend!
:]

- Chuck Bartowski
( May 1st, 2009 | 1:29 pm )
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Post #10
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AAAAAARRRGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!! It turns out it IS Ghosts of Girlfriends Past!!!! Why cannot I pronounce that?

- Bustray
( May 1st, 2009 | 4:22 pm )
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