Filed under: Box-Office News

Box-Office Oracle: Mar. 13 – Mar. 15, 2009

No, Watchmen won't win again... we think.

#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Weeks in a Row
Gonna be tough at the top. Theoretically three films could win, and it should end up being the second worst weekend of the year. We've got the kid's film, the holdover from last weekend, and the horror. I'm going with the kids. But not by much.
Estimate: $25.5 million
Hard to know what to do here. They are begging the people to see it. But that prodigious drop from Friday to Sunday means mixed word of mouth. Plus I've got to think the true believers have already seen it twice already and won't be heading back this weekend (hi Dre!). So I'm dropping it 56%. Nasty, I know.
Estimate: $24.3 million
B-Luv says it's not great. I don't know about that. I try to skip the parts of the year that don't have anything to offer. This one is also only getting 2400 theaters — not enough to mount a true charge. So let's call it third place and move on.
Estimate: $15.6 million
Now we get to everything else… that won't make any money. Five films in the top ten will make less than $2k per theater. The math on that is around 25 tickets sold per screening. So any of these films might be a good place to stage a drug deal.
Estimate: $5.6 million
2200 theaters and no marketing budget. Bad times for The Whitest Kids U Know.
Estimate: $5.2 million
Three movies within .6m of each other. Which means we'll have one surprise and it will screw my whole board up. Typical.
Estimate: $5.1 million
Next weekend this officially goes out of the top ten. It's been a fun 17 weeks pondering this title, even if only 10 of them were in the top ten.
Estimate: $3.8 million
I read a rumor that Observe and Report is more dark and Taxi Driver-ish. That would definitely work for me, I already dig the red-band trailer.
Estimate: $2.8 million
It dropped 29.8% two weekends ago. It dropped 33.2% last weekend. So let's put it down for a 28% drop this weekend, if only because there is nothing else in the genre as widely available. Riveting stuff!
Estimate: $2.2 million
Still, six weekends in the top ten is nothing to sneeze at.
Estimate: $1.9 million

So who you got next weekend? Nic Cage in Knowing? Clive and Julia in Duplicity? Or do you like the comedy in I Love You, Man? Make the call in the comments, and don't let me down.


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Post #1
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Here are my predics:

1. Race To Witch Mountain- $34.5 million (Going out on a limb and predicting this as a sleeper for this year)
2. Watchmen- $21.7 million
3. The Last House On The Left- $11.2 million
4. Taken- $5.4 million
5. Madea Goes To Jail- $4.9 million
6. Miss March- $4.4 million
7. Slumdog Millionaire- $3.9 million
8. He's Just Not That Into You- $3.5 million
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop- $3.5 million
10. Coraline- $2.9 million

- Bustray
( March 12th, 2009 | 7:01 pm )
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Post #2
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Bustray is ON it! I actually like that higher RTTM pick, because I think Dwayne Johnson is secretly beloved by American public. So you might be dead on.

- Laremy
( March 12th, 2009 | 7:03 pm )
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Post #3
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I also like that RTWM pick, but for different reasons. Every other year since 2003, Disney has come out with a March blockbuster that has debuted to over 30 million; I don't see a reason why RTWM would be any different. Maybe 31-33 million?

- Chris C
( March 12th, 2009 | 7:13 pm )
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Post #4
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Oh, and I don't know if this would alter your predictions, but Miss March is only carrying 1746 theaters per boxofficemojo.

- Chris C
( March 12th, 2009 | 7:14 pm )
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Post #5
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if miss march makes 5.2 its guaranteed to make more then College a recent sex comedy that only made 5.6 and if it makes more it only has to clear 14.2 total to beat sex drive

- jeremy wein
( March 12th, 2009 | 8:56 pm )
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Post #6
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It'll be sad to see Watchmen miss the top stop. Yes the movie had it negatives, but it really ;stayed' with me in that I couldnt stop thinking about the twisted heroes (and I havent read the novel)

- adu
( March 12th, 2009 | 9:21 pm )
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Post #7
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I'm going to be watching "Watchmen" again this weekend. It'll be my third time (I saw it on opening night and again on Monday because some of my other friends hadn't seen it). Also, my oldest sister up in Michigan hasn't seen it yet because she was finishing up the graphic novel, so she'll probably find time this weekend, where I'm sure she will LOVE the movie, just as my second-oldest sister did (even though she DIDN'T read the graphic novel).

You all are just pouncing on Watchmen. It's like you want to see it fail. It won't. We had sky-high expectations that it didn't meet. But in comparison with what it SHOULD have made, had it followed the rules of regular theater business, it did amazingly. And Warner Bros. is going to see a profit, one way or another.

- JM
( March 12th, 2009 | 10:20 pm )
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Post #8
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Gotta admit, I think Watchmen will only see a 50% drop this weekend. I mean strong word of mouth, especially oversees, has given this film an average of $3.1 million everyday this week – not bad for a film many continue (including this website) to call a "flop".

Here's how it will play out.

1. Race to Witch Mountain 35.0
2. Watchmen 29.0

- Quake82
( March 13th, 2009 | 12:05 am )
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Post #9
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Watchmen will win it again with a good 35-40 million. Race to Witch Mountian will make 20-25, while Last House on the Left will take 3rd with 18 mil. Miss March will make a healthy 15 mil, while Taken will garner 8 million.

- joker47
( March 13th, 2009 | 10:56 am )
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