Filed under: Box-Office News

Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 23 – Jan. 25, 2009

Oscar films all over the place, but none of them will triumph.

#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week in a Row
I can't think of a reason it won't do the exact same number the last one did. Same time of year, same look. It should win the weekend going away because nothing has enough theaters.
Estimate: $23.8 million
I'm only dropping it 51%. Because I think people know what it is, and thus word-of-mouth can't really hurt it that much.
Estimate: $15.6 million
You want to talk about a movie that could have used a few Oscar noms? I guess The Academy feels like Mystic River and Million Dollar Baby were payment enough.
Estimate: $15.4 million
Three films fighting for the children's dollar this weekend. They should join up and form one super movie, like Voltron.
Estimate: $12.5 million
I think it will get another bounce this weekend. Everyone who bet long financially on this title is about to be very happy.
Estimate: $12.3 million
I knocked it 48% because there isn't anything competing with it. I don't see many people choosing between all the Oscar films and this.
Estimate: $10.7 million
Last year only three Oscar films tried to expand after the nominations. This year it's mayhem with Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, and Frost/Nixon trying to come up while Slumdog, Defiance, and Gran Torino already have staked positions. Who scheduled this mess?
Estimate: $9.9 million
I just talked to someone who liked it. See? No matter how hard I try I can't change everyone.
Estimate: $7.4 million
In big trouble due to Inkheart and Blart. I've heard good buzz though.
Estimate: $7.3 million
Not making the list? Button, even with those 13 nominations. It's been out too long for a bounce. And Defiance slips out of the top ten like a shipping passing in the night. Revolutionary Road needed much better news out of The Academy today and The Wrestler still has only 400 theaters.
Estimate: $4.8 million

What do you think? Am I overrating anything? Will the nominations have a bigger affect? Break out your abacus and let The Oracle know.


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Post #1
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My two cents:

"Inkheart" is a wee-bit overrated, while "Hotel for Dogs" will hold decently (you have it dropping a whole lot from last weekend). Also, I don't think "Notorious" will hold well- i feel that most of the people who wanted to see this movie saw it last weekend. It'll have the legs of the average Tyler Perry movie (that is, not much at all). I'm thinking a $60 million total when it's out of theaters, give or take.

- Vince
( January 22nd, 2009 | 5:07 pm )
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Post #2
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paul blart goes 2 in a row uninvited will be number one next week people like horror movies

- Justin Casey
( January 22nd, 2009 | 7:57 pm )
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Post #3
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I hope Underworld kicks ass , and ends up being a good movie. That always helps!

- adu
( January 22nd, 2009 | 11:32 pm )
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Post #4
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@Justin Casey:

Uh, I'm not too sure about the Uninvited, I think that maybe we'll have a burnout on horror films, you know? "The Unborn" succeeded since it was the first big horror movie since Saw V, and My Bloody Valentine had the whole 3D angle. The Uninvited has…Elizabeth Banks? Not a bad thing, but I just don't see it breaking out from the pack, especially since Friday the 13th is opening fairly soon as well.

In other news, "Taken" looks fantastically awesome. I mean Liam Neeson kicking ass is already worth the ticket price.

- Vince
( January 23rd, 2009 | 1:12 am )
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Post #5
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thanks for the update vince and you're right taken does look preety good just thought i would add i saw mall cop today and it was hilarious two of the best lines from paul were when he headbutts a guy and then says no one wins with a head butt and the second was when he was talking to the new mall cop turned bad guy vick and says how about i give up now i'll meet you on the corner of nev and er so thanks and by the way my favorite line from mall cop and one i will start using every day with my friends is peanut blart and jelly wha wha wha what's up man

- Justin Casey
( January 24th, 2009 | 8:15 pm )
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