Well, this weekend is very dificult to predict. 3 movies with a shot at firts place and only 1 can win.

1. The Final Destination: $20.2M – this will be first simply because of the price of the 3D tickets
2. Inglorious Basterds: $18.5 – this could be first
3. Halloween 2: $17.5M – this could be first too
4. District 9: $9.9M – the only easy movie to predict of the top 5 this weekend…
5. G.I. Joe: $6.4M – Julie & Julia have a shot to this place too

Also going with Final Destination. It's the fourth one so it's the sequel with more audience familarity. It's also been marketed as the last one. Plus the 3D factor.

However Halloween owned this weekend two years ago to an opening bigger than any of the FD's. And if Basterds holds similarly to D9, it will be a close top 3.

So even though this is the closer of summer (and what a summer it's been), the horror crowd will be out in full force and last week's so-called "loss of the college crowd" effect will be non-existant.

1.) The Final Destination – $24.4m
2.) Inglorious Basterds – $17.8m
3.) Halloween 2 – $17.2m
4.) District 9 – $10.6m
5.) G.I. Joe – $7.3m

And that makes for a Top 5 with 4 R-rated films, wow.

I have heard enough positives reviews that maybe "Taking Woodstock" can hit double digits, the older crowd showed last week with I.B. they still make it out once in a while, and they sure will not see Final Destination or Halloween.

1. The Final Destination – $20 million
2. Inglourious Basterds – $18.9 million
3. Halloween II – $18 million
4. District 9 – $10.4 million
5. Julie & Julia – $9.4 million

Remember that debate about what college students might be doing the first weekend on campus? Well, I'll bet my shorts that if they go to the threatre, it will be to see "The Final Destination" and not "Inglourious Basterds." I know you maintain Inglourious will hold on because it has the older viewers. You're probably right. But let's see.

Basterds for the repeat!!!!

1. Inglourious Basterds $20.4 million
2. Halloween II $18.6 million
3. Final Destination $17.7 million
4. District 9 $9.6 million
5. Julie & Julia $6.6 million

This is my first prediction attempt so let me try a wacky theory. Do people remember their last similar movie experience and carefully weigh their choices, or do they just go with brand?

1. Inglourious Basterds
2. Halloween II
3. The Final Destination

…my perception of strongest to weakest brand.

1. The Final Destination–$25.8mil: High-profile promotion that's been easy to follow and understand. Teens will flock.
2. Inglourious Basterds–$17.5mil: You are right–the percentage drop won't be as high as we initially thought. 55% is more likely than 60%. Oh, and I'm seeing it Friday.
3. Halloween 2 (2009)–$15.6mil: This is like "The Hills Have Eyes II"–a sequel to a successful remake, but one that didn't get much advertising. I compared "when will you see this" polls on BOM, and THHEII should have come in around $11.5mil instead of its $9.8mil. So when I compared HII's polls to HI's, I got a number around $17.5mil, but I had to drop it a bit further. Oh, and its drops will be ghastly, just ghastly. I may even be predicting way too high on this.
4. District 9–$11.4mil: 40% drop. And next weekend will be FAR more promising that 43%. Remember, Laremy, that it's Labor Day weekend. Even on the 3-day weekend (which I much prefer over the 4-day weekend totals) the movies that don't lose many theaters fall only 10-25%. I suspect D9 will be somewhere in that range.
5. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra–$7.0mil: Just how my numbers turned out. It'll hold pretty decently, thanks to no new competition.

Another tough question: Who will win next weekend? If IB wins this one, it's in a lock for next, because FD and HII will drop much harder, them being in their second week and it being in its third. And even if one of them wins over IB, IB still may make a comeback. One thing's for sure: even if HII wins this weekend (highly unlike), it won't win next weekend. And "All About Steve" and "Gamer" look very likely to flop.

Halloween II
$20.1M

The Final Destination
$19.6M

Inglorious Basterds
$18.9M

District 9
$9.8M

Julie & Julia
$7.05M

Done deal..

1. The Final Destination- $21.7 million
2. Inglourious Basterds- $18.4 million
3. Halloween 2- $17.5
4. District 9- $10.3 million
5. Julie & Julia- 6.8

1. The Final Destination – $21.2 million
2. Halloween II – $19.1 million
2. Inglourious Basterds – $16.4 million
4. District 9 – $12 million
5. Julie & Julia – $10.6 million

@JM: Gamer flop? C´mon, is action thriller in a near future. I think it will win the next weekend because the students love that type of films. Here in Portugal all my school is crazy to see this movie (here the movie only comes to theatres at September 17th). It is still early to talk about next weekend, but for now I think Gamer will win with $14M. Oh, and yes, All About Steve will flop.

1 – FD4 — $23.5m
2 – H2 — $21.5m
3 – IB — $19m
4 – D9 — $11.2m
5 – GI Joe — $7.7m

@Jonh-PT: I'm with you. I think "Gamer" will bring the males and the females in equal numbers and be the No.1 date movie. It will do very well.

Halloween 2 – 19.5
Inglorious Basterds – 18.1
Final Destination – 17.7

I think you are taking audience reception of 'the previous film' too much into account. I think that people are getting tired of the final destination series, but more importantly, I think that the average audience member would think/thinks that the Halloween trailer blew the Final Destination trailer out of the water

The Final Destination: $24.8
Inglorious Basterds: $20.6
Halloween II: $18.9

The Final Destination: $23.3
Inglorious Basterds: $16.6
Halloween II: $15.2

I'm also really intrested in how Gamer will do next week. It looks like alot of fun and should deffentially pack the college age crowd into theatres, but how big will it open? I'm gonna predict anywhere from 10 to $15mill just because Gerard Butler is returning to hardcore action and the fact Labor Day is next weekend so alot of people will have time to see as much as possible over the weekend.

[1] $20.0M – Final Destination 4
[2] $19.0M – Inglourious Basterds
[3] $15.0M – Halloween II
[4] $8.2M – District 9
[5] $7.1M – Julie & Julia
[6] $7.0M – G.I. Joe
[7] $6.5M – Taking Woodstock – (guessing $5,000 per screen)
[8] $6.3M – Time Traveler's Wife
[9] $3.8M – Shorts $3.8M
[10] $2.8M – G-Force $2.8M

I'm just guessing that the 3D aspect of FD4 will win indecisive fans over. Beyond that, pretty standard drops. I probably won't win that special prize, but you can't win if you don't play!

Didnt see Inglorious but heard it was alot more talk than action(?).. College just started and the kids in college have nothing better to do than see a movie.. They could see final destination and get the same amount of blood, but woth a shorter running time and the whole 3D aspect gives it a kick.. The marketing on FD is everywhere.. It was all over the x games and ive seen it on alot of teen/ college age targeted channels

final destination- 20.9
inglorious basterds – 18.1
H2- 16.3

Hmm. This is possibly the worst counter-programming EVER. Like if they opened Captain America and the Superman reboot on the same weekend. I see cannibalization…

Inglorious Basterds: $17.1M
The Final Destination: $16.3M
Halloween II: $15.2M

The Final Destination — 23.6 million
Halloween 2 — 18.4
Inglourious Basterds — 17.6
District 9 — 10.1
Julie and Julia — 6.8
G.I. Joe — 6.4
The Time Traveler's Wife — 4.9
Shorts — 3.5
Taking Woodstock — 3.3
G-Force — 2.8

1.) Final Destination – $26.5 mil
2.) Inglourious Basterds – $19.5 miL
3.) Halloween 2 – $17.5 mil
4.) District 9 – $10.2 mil
5.) GI Joe – $6.8 mil
6.) Julie & Julia – $6.5 mil
7.) The Time Travellers Wife – $5.5 mil
8.) Taking Woodstock – $4.5 mil
9.) Shorts – $3.8 mil
10.) Harry Potter 6 – $ 3 mil

1. The Final Destination – $23.4 million
2. Inglourious Basterds – $19.2 million
3. Halloween 2 – $18.3 million
4. District 9 – $10.3 million
5. G.I. Joe – $7.0 million
6. Julie & Julia – $6.5 million
7. The Time Traveler’s Wife – $5.9 million
8. Taking Woodstock – $5.6 million
9. Shorts – $3.9 million
10. G-Force – $2.4 million

1. The Final Destination 4 –> $25.2 million
2. Inglourious Basterds –> $16.5 million
3. Halloween 2 –> $15.7 million

1. Inglourious Basterds: 22.3 m

2. Final Destination: 20.3 m

3. Halloween 2: 14m

1. The Final Destination – $23.3 million
2. Inglourious Basterds – $19.7 million
3. Halloween 2 – $18.0 million

1. Final Destination 23.2 million
2. Inglorious Basterds 19.5 million
3. Halloween 2 17.3 million
4. District 9 12 million
5. Julie & Julia 7 million

1. The Final Destination – $21.4M This thing has several factors going for it. One, it's 3-D, more money. Two, the final destination series progressively made more on opening weekend starting with the first one. Three, much better marketing than Halloween II

2. Inglourious Basterds – $18M Living in New York, it is hard to get a fair assessment of a film and how it's doing in the rest of the country. Here, friends and acquaintances have been raving, several going to see it again. But most of my friends are film geeks, so I don't expect the same thing is being said in Iowa (I'm not calling Iowa stupid, they just don't have the movie elitism that you see in NY). But, I see a little big bigger than a 50% drop here, but nothing overly huge.

3. Halloween II – $11.7M I'm seeing this as a huge fail. Marketing has been pretty bad. It may have done well in a weekend on its own, but will lose out to the marketing juggernaut that is The Final Destination. Not to mention, people didn't care for the first one, and the trailers haven't been hitting it out of the park. Zombie says its something different, but that's not what the marketing has shown. Hell, I think this think could go lower.

4. District 9 – $10.4M

5. Julie and Julia – $7.2M

6. G. I. Joe – $6.6M

7. The Time Traveler's Wife – $6M

8. Taking Woodstock – $4M

9. Shorts – $3M

10. Harry Potter 6 – $2.5M

@The Check Spot: I appreciate you not wanting to speak for people outside of your experience. But let me tell you, as a resident of the flyover part of the country… although it is the big metropolitan area of Chicago… that "Inglourious Basterds" will find the same amount of film geeks as NY. Since I have family in Iowa, I feel I can speak for them and say the same goes for them.

But having said that, I think it will have sated much of its target audience and have a substantial drop. Brad is holding for its more mature audience that will give this one staying power. He could be right, he has more experience than I do at predicting.

But the teens and young adults will go to "Final Destination" in droves and drive it high for the weekend. Holloween II seems to be releasing too soon. Why, I wonder. Especially considering the competition.

1. The Final Destination- $ 21.6 mil
2. Halloween II – $ 17.9 mil
3. Inglorious Basterds – $ 16.7 mil

5 or 6. Taking Woodstock – $ 6.7 mil

FYI great Time article…10 lessons of the summer box-office. CLICK HERE.