Filed under: Box-Office News

Box-Office Oracle: Aug. 21 – Aug. 23, 2009

Tarantino takes the title.

#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks in a Row
It's gonna win, if only because nothing of note was released to contend with it.

And it should win, it deserves it. Sure, it's too long, and too strange, and Tarantino is too affected… and I still love his stuff. If you don't, cool, but I do. I'm just one guy over here, trying to get along.

$7500 per theater, 3,165 theaters, and it wins a very slow weekend at the box office.

Estimate: $23.7 million
It's going to fall. I'm thinking 53 percent or so, because younger audiences are frontload central. It could surprise me and jump up into the $20s, heck it could contend for a repeat, but I'm putting it just shy of $18m because I think people have already moved on.
Estimate: $17.7 million
Has anyone seen any marketing on this? It's a weird tweener title because some kids are already back in school. I can't see it doing well.
Estimate: $13.0 million
This will have a little more legs as it's meant for an older and more female audience. The only odd thing is Julie & Julia gained 109 theaters, right in this film's demo.
Estimate: $10.4 million
A 59 percent drop last weekend, a 56 percent drop this weekend, and soon this title will be nothing but a memory. It's already cracked $200m worldwide cume, but $400m now seems out of reach.
Estimate: $9.8 million
The budget was kind of a hefty $40m, given the scope of the movie. Where did all that money go? How much does it cost to film a dingy NYC apartment? It's made $50m so far domestically, going to need a push overseas to start banking.
Estimate: $8.3 million
Not getting enough theaters to truly mount a charge. And after the flaming wreckage of Bandslam's release I think I've learned my lesson.
Estimate: $6.9 million
It's the #6 talking animal live action film of all time. And Dr. Dolittle 2 better watch out!
Estimate: $4.6 million
It cleared $3.6m last weekend, let's throw another $2.5m into the mix.
Estimate: $2.5 million
It will clear $10m this weekend, but I have a hard time determining where success is for this project. What could it have cost? $10m? I suppose we can safely say it's not going to set any records./div>

Estimate: $2.4 million

So where am I off? Will Inglourious tank? Can District 9 repeat? And am I lowballing the weekend ($104m top 12) overall? Weigh in and be counted, all we have is our intellect.<


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Post #1
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MY PREDICTIONS

1. INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS- $26.2 million
2. DISTRICT 9 – $23.5 million
3. TIME TRAVELERS WIFE – $12.4 million
4. SHORTS – $10.1 million
5. G.I. JOE – $9.4 million

:]

- Chuck Bartowski
( August 20th, 2009 | 5:17 pm )
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Post #2
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My Predictions for the top 5
1.Inglourious Basterds- $30.2 million Tarantino has his following and with Brad Pitt central to marketing I can see it making it to $30 million.
2.District 9- $20.6 million D9 isn't winning but WOM has been pretty solid and I think people are looking for a film that can justify liking without "As long as you don't expect a plot." So I'm putting it at a 45% drop
3. Shorts- $12.2 million Let's just hope Quentin's buddy is working on Sin City 2 right now.
4. G.I Joe- $9.7 On the plus side it isn't Van Helsing size flop but I think its safe to say Hasbro no longer has 2 mega franchises.
5. The Time Traveler's Wife- $7.6 million That's right a 57% drop, this title just isn't getting any love from anybody.

- John Debono
( August 20th, 2009 | 5:44 pm )
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Post #3
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Curiosities: in Portugal Up will win again taking 100000 spectators to theaters and The Ugly Thruth could crack the 50000 spectators, but is unlikely.

My Predictions for EUA are:

1- Inglourious Basterds – $28,5M
2- District 9 – $18M
3- G.I. Joe – $12,2M
4- Time Travelers Wife – $12,1M
5- Julie & Julia – $8,1M

- Jonh-PT
( August 20th, 2009 | 5:46 pm )
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Post #4
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Since I was so far off on "9" I would not even listen to my opinion, but Bastards might do a little better then 25M, and you going to be do the "what was I thinking" again on "Shorts", no body will see it, it will be luck to bank 5M.

- Steve
( August 20th, 2009 | 6:03 pm )
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Post #5
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District 9: 26.7
Inglorious Basterds: 24.6
G.I. Joe: 12.5
Time Travelers's Wife: 11.6
Julie & Julia: 7.7
Shorts: 7.1
G-Force: 6.1
Post Grad:4.3
Ponyo: 2.7
The Goods: 2.5

- Sebastian
( August 20th, 2009 | 6:25 pm )
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Post #6
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Basterds 27.3 million
District 9 21.9 million
The Time Traveler's Wife 12.1 million
G.I. Joe 12.0 million
Julie & Julia 7.8 million

Bonus: Shorts doesn't fail as badly as Bandslam did last week and finishes 6th with 7.3 million

- Shane-o-Mac
( August 20th, 2009 | 8:29 pm )
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Post #7
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1. District 9- $21.4 million
2. Inglourious Basterds- $18.3 million
3. G.I. Joe- $10.7 million
4. The Time Traveler's Wife- $10.0 million
5. Julie & Julia- $8.1 million
6. Shorts- $7.9 million
7. G-Force- $4.2 million
8. Post Grad- $3.6 million
9. X Games 3D- $3.0 million
10. The Goods- $2.6 million

- Bustray
( August 20th, 2009 | 8:33 pm )
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Post #8
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Just saw Inglorious, movie is awesome!

- zyzygy
( August 20th, 2009 | 9:38 pm )
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Post #9
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1. Inglorious Basterds: 25.4 mil
2. District 9: 18.5 mil
3. Shorts: 11.8 mil
4. Time Traveler's Wife: 9.9 mil
5. G.I. Joe: 9.7 mil
6. Julie and Julia: 8.0 mil
7. Post Grad: 6.5 mil
8. G-Force: 4.9 mil
9. The Goods: 2.4 mil
10. Ponyo: 2.2 mil

- Danny
( August 20th, 2009 | 9:50 pm )
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Post #10
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1. Inglourious Basterds–$33.4mil
2. District 9–$20.5mil
3. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra–$11.2mil
4. Shorts–$11.1mil
5. The Time Traveler's Wife–$9.1mil
6. Julie & Julia–$7.7mil
7. G-Force–$4.5mil
8. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince–$3.3mil
9. The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard–$2.6mil
10. Post Grad–$2.2mil
Off the Chart: X Games 3D The Movie–$2.0mil

I think you're underestimating "Inglorious Basterds." I think it'll have a big opening weekend, but rather bad holds.

"District 9" will drop around 45%; I think it'll actually appeal to older audiences more than younger ones, especially because of its political subtext. But the younger audiences will also appreciate the action. I don't think people have moved on quite yet.

It's funny that buddies Tarantino ("Inglorious Basterds") and Rodriguez ("Shorts") are competing this weekend (if such an obvious outcome can even be called competing). And it's also funny that Rodriguez has a split personality as a director, going from super-violent adult fare to wacky kiddie flicks. I think he does the latter to please his own kids.

- JM
( August 20th, 2009 | 10:19 pm )
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Post #11
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Inglourious Basterds – $25.9 Million
District 9 – $19.7 Million ~ I wish this film would win for a second week so amazing!
Shorts – $15.4 Million ~ unfortunately

District 9 is pure quality for your buck and hopefully Brad Pitt will be enough to bring in the crowds. I fear though that the name might have the same affect that "Drag Me to Hell's" controversial title had.

- BR
( August 20th, 2009 | 10:27 pm )
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Post #12
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1. Inglourious Basterds – $28.3 million
2. District 9 – $17.0 million
3. G.I. Joe – $12.2 million
4. Shorts – $10.9 million
5. The Time Traveler's Wife – $9.6 million
6. Julie & Julia – $8.5 million
7. G-Force – $4.3 million
8. Post Grad – $3.9 million
9. X Games 3-D – $2.8 million
10. Harry Potter 6 – $2.7 million

- Nick
( August 21st, 2009 | 12:48 am )
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Post #13
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1.) Inglourious Basterds – $29 mil
2.) District 9 – $21 mil
3.) GI Joe – $11.5 mil
4.) Shorts – $10 mil
5.) The Time Travellers Wife – $ 8.5 mil
6.) Post Grad – $8.2 mil
7.) Julie and Julia – $8 mil
8.) G-Force – $4 mil
9.) X-Games 3D – $3.5 mil
10.) Harry Potter 6 – $2.7 mil

- Athar
( August 21st, 2009 | 5:32 am )
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Post #14
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It would be fantastic to see Inglorious Basterds open to $24M or higher, but given that QT's films have an average opening in the mid-teens and considering the Weinstein Company's recent track record, my guess is that we should brace for an opening more in the $15M-$18M range.

- dw
( August 21st, 2009 | 9:03 am )
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Post #15
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1. Inglourious Basterds – $24.6M Should be a nice opening for Tarantino. The Weinsteins have done a great job of marketing this film so it should open pretty well. It's only real competition is from District 9. Plus the reviews are pretty strong, so it may not be too front loaded. Seems to appeal to everyone. I wouldn't be surprised if it makes above $30M though that is a rarity this time of summer.

2. District 9 – $19.3M Will not hold too strong because of the Basterds competition, but won't drop huge either. The WOM is fabulous, unlike Cloverfield which a lot of people are making the chief comparison with. I think it will have stronger holds in the weeks to come, and should make in the $130 – $140 M range.

3. G.I. Joe – $11.5M Another big drop, but with lack of competition or strength from other films, will be able to finish 3rd.

4. Shorts – $9.4M The marketing wasn't strong on this one. It could even go the way of Bandslam. Or it could do Spy Kids type business. I'm putting it in the Meh type business. But I don't get kids these days, so could go either way.

5. The Time Traveler's Wife – $9M Word of mouth sucks, plus it did a pretty frontloaded type weekend last week. I'm giving it 50% drop which is pretty bad for romantic dramas.

6. Julie and Julia – $8.7M Shouldn't drop off too bad. It could even beat Time Traveler's Wife.

7. G – Force – $4.4M

8. Post Grad – $3.7M Wow, I can't figure this one out at all. This film screams August dumping film.

9. X Games 3D – $3.6M Never underestimate extreme sports and 3D though it looks like I just did.

10. Harry Potter 6 – $3M

- The Check Spot
( August 21st, 2009 | 11:04 am )
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Post #16
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Can we get some love for Hary Potter which is now definately going to cross 900mill worldwide when it leaves theatres. It should also hit 600mill foreign this weekend or be very close. We can no longer call it not successfull.

- J.C
( August 21st, 2009 | 3:38 pm )
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Post #17
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quick estimate for basterds 34 million + why my theater all 8 showings were sold out and i dont live in a huge town so i wouldnt be surprised if this possibly opens near 40 mil

- jeremy wein
( August 21st, 2009 | 8:56 pm )
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Post #18
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i want post grad to bomb i sadly saw this movie with no other options and thought it was a total snooze fest to the point where i considered walking out and almost went through with it but i didn't and i almost saw district 9 but i got busy and couldn't see it i will soon though

- Justin Casey
( August 21st, 2009 | 11:41 pm )
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Post #19
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@J.C:
Yea… I was getting a feeling people just wanted to write off this title. I mean fine it didnt reach the Billion mark which was expected pre-release. But still… It's gonna end at around 900mil mark worldwide. If this isnt called a success then what is??

- Athar
( August 22nd, 2009 | 11:14 am )
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