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Filed under: Box-Office News

Box-Office Oracle: Aug. 14 – Aug. 16, 2009

Decent action film beats lesser action film... District 9 over G.I. Joe or bust!

#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
The Peter Jackson produced District 9 is getting very healthy buzz, and it's a solid actioner. So why not? If you're choosing between slightly above average and flat out putrid I'm hoping you'll choose this one.
Estimate: $30.5 million
A very difficult movie to project. Revenge of the Fallen fell 61 percent — but that was with a Wednesday opening. I'm slotting G.I. Joe to fall 62 percent, because it's not as good as Revenge of the Fallen and I think word of mouth has probably spread. Plus, by aiming for a younger demo they've frontloaded the results.
Estimate: $20.8 million
I can't see this beating something like The Notebook at per theater average. So I've put it at $4700 per. It's nice counter-programming, but not super accessible for the rom-com crowd.
Estimate: $14.0 million
This is probably the most mysterious title on the board. Is it going to do High School Musical 3 numbers? Has anyone seen any advertising? It's that teen demo, and they are notoriously fickle.
Estimate: $11.7 million
It shouldn't be punished this weekend, only a 47 percent drop, the folks who opt out of Time Traveler's Wife will probably opt into this title.
Estimate: $10.7 million
This film is only getting 1500 theaters. That's not conducive to cracking the top five. I'd be interested to hear what you guys think of it, I haven't seen it yet.
Estimate: $7.5 million
It's a very crowded field, I have 15 films making over a million dollars and there are five relatively wide releases. Now then, the trend on G-Force indicates a 40 percent drop is highly probable.
Estimate: $5.2 million
Another victim of theater counts, plus Miyazaki has never dominated the domestic market. But it looks as thought Pixar is trying to give this one a fair shake; they've got about $200m in international grosses to help soften the domestic results.
Estimate: $4.6 million
It's gaining another 230 theaters this weekend, but the five new releases really cut into the momentum.
Estimate: $4.3 million
Funny People is two weeks and done (JM made a nice point on the running time hurting it). Perfect Getaway is a one and done. It's a tough August, and the numbers suggest the second weekend of the month is a bad place to be attempting to profit.
Estimate: $4.0 million

Who you got? Anyone daring enough to pick against District 9? Will G.I. Joe prove me wrong? And what do you make of Bandslam? Comment now… or forever hold your peace.


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Post #1
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Wow, "9" is way to high. I say #1 Wife #2 Joe #3 District 9. Rachel McAdams I think might be a bigger leading lady then we think. "Wife" might crack 30M, "9" might not crack 20M

Crazy weekend, Julie and Julia may drop very little, Bandslam has little advertising, but my paper gave it a solid review (but by someone I never heard of), Ponyo has been seen even less, and Jeremy Piven was even on Big Brother selling "The Goods".

All in all, it's impossible to pick an order this week with not only so many different movies, each demographic has 2-3 different choices.

- Steve
( August 13th, 2009 | 5:16 pm )
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Post #2
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Woah ! there are alot of strong predictions for D9 this weekend. Almost all analyst are predicting it to open over $30milll and while I wan't it to do great I'm not going to be as optimistic about it as everyone else. The truth is this movie is just being supported by massive internet hype a method not always proven to work for most movies. I know 300 and Cloverfield were more successful from it, but honestly they were alot easier to sell to the mainstream auidences and those trailers were amazing. District 9 on the otherhand is a dark, complex sci-fi social commentary and the gerneral audience is just not really into that kind of stuff. The sci-fi genre itself is becoming alot harder to sell these days and if it's not Transfomers or Star Trek they have no intrest. I just don't see a huge opening for this movie, but I do see stong WOM in the upcoming weeks which could make it one of the biggest sleeper hits of the summer. I think G.I. Joe will be number one again this weekend.

- wrongturn687
( August 13th, 2009 | 5:24 pm )
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Post #3
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I think you're underestimating Ponyo. It makes sense to compare it to past Miyazaki films, but I'm not exactly sure that that approach is fair because this film has had WAY more advertising than his previous films. Also, the WOM will be great; it's currently sitting on a 90% on Metacritic and a 94% on Rottentomatoes. I see this film doing a number closer to $8 mil, hopefully more.

- Dylan
( August 13th, 2009 | 5:39 pm )
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Post #4
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I've heard a lot of people talk about intending to see DIstrict 9 and Time Traveler's Wife, and I think Bandslam's advertising has been a bit slow.

District 9: 33
GI Joe: 18
Time Traveler's Wife: 15.5
Bandslam 10

- Dan Tralder
( August 13th, 2009 | 6:31 pm )
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Post #5
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MY PREDICTIONS

1. DISTRICT 9 – $28.3 million
2. TIME TRAVELER'S WIFE – $23.4 million
3. G.I. JOE – $21.9 million
4. JULIE & JULIA – $11.0 million
5. BANDSLAM – $10.3 million

I haven't been to the movies since Transformers. So this weekend, I'll probably be seeing a lot. I'll be checking out: District 9, Time Travelers Wife, 500 Days of Summer, and Julie & Julia.

:]!

- Chuck Bartowski
( August 13th, 2009 | 6:41 pm )
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Post #6
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Can't wait to see District 9- I'm looking forward to it way more than "Inglourious Basterds"- and I'm a huge, huge fan of Tarantino.

Also, "Bandslam"…I'm not feeling it. The movie is appealing way more to tween girls than anyone else (and that doesn't work out too well more often than not), it doesn't have the backing of Disney a la High School Musical, and there's only been one rock (or music)-centric comedy that has done solid box office- School of Rock all the hell back in 2003. Walk Hard, The Rocker, Be Cool all bombed. This one, with less starpower, regardless of the solid reviews and the New Moon trailer attached, won't do higher than $10 million opening, and that's a stretch.

As for "The Goods"-I smell "cult classic"…

- Vince
( August 13th, 2009 | 6:47 pm )
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Post #7
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And I forgot MADDEN 2010 comes out at midnight. I bet that hurts Friday numbers for the male dominated movies.

- Steve
( August 13th, 2009 | 7:05 pm )
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Post #8
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@Steve: Madden is actually a really good point. But don't you think they'll take three hours off to watch District 9?

- Laremy
( August 13th, 2009 | 10:04 pm )
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Post #9
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District 9 will take more or less 28 Mil in the Box office. Yeah, MADDEN's gonna hurt the men's movies, but I bet the only 1 getting affected will be G.I. Goe.

Bandslam has an 84% Fresh rating at RottenTomatoes so I'm guessing out of curiosity people would see it to give it at least 12 Mil plus or minus, oh, and Ponyo will take less than 5 Mil

Time Traveller's Wife is a complete BORE! Although I think it will still crack 15 Mil. Wow! A lot of movies are coming this weekend. Oh well, I'm only waiting for a 40 Mil Basterd.

- Topy
( August 13th, 2009 | 10:39 pm )
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Post #10
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DISTRICT 9 WAS AMAZING. EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THAT MOVIE!

- BR
( August 14th, 2009 | 12:18 am )
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Post #11
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I'm really going high on this…

District 9: 37.3

- Sebastian
( August 14th, 2009 | 12:26 am )
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Post #12
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Bizarre weekend to predict, considering the variety out of the 5 new releases.

Even though my number on D9 is a little high, I think the buzz has built a litter better than expected. If not, and if it's REALLY that good and clicks with general audiences, expect fantastic holds.

G.I. Joe shouldn't fall TOO hard, as D9 and the others won't take much thunder away (consider the R-rated/PG-13 factor).

1.) District 9 – $31.6m
2.) G.I. Joe – $23.1m
3.) The Time Traveler's Wife – $18.7m
4.) Julie & Julia – $11.7m

I agree with Vince, The Goods looks like it will take off on DVD. Fans of Entourage/Piven and fans of the others in the ensemble really won't be enough for box office success. I'd enjoy seeing The Goods finish higher than Bandslam with at least $8m (but it's unlikely) and I think Ponyo would be lucky with #9.

- Eli
( August 14th, 2009 | 1:44 am )
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Post #13
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District 9 – $38.0 million
G.I. Joe – $22.6 million
Time Traveler’s Wife – $17.6 million
Julie & Julia – $11.5 million
Bandslam – $7.4 million
The Goods – $6.4 million
G-Force – $6.1 million
Ponyo – $5.5 million
Harry Potter – $5.0 million
Funny People – $3.9 million

- Nick
( August 14th, 2009 | 1:57 am )
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Post #14
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Heres my prediction Harry Potter will over take Transformers 2 for highest grossing film of the year world wide as box office mojo has them seperated by only 3 mil meaning there is a god

- jeremy wein
( August 14th, 2009 | 2:30 am )
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Post #15
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1.) The Time Travellers Wife – $31 mil
2.) District 9 – $25.5 mil
3.) GI Joe – $24.5 mil
4.) Bandslam – $13.5 mil
5.) Julie and Julia – $9mil
6.) The Goods – $7mil
7.) 500 Days of Summer – $4.5 mil
8.) Harry Potter6 – $4.2 mil
9.) G-Force – $4 mil
10.) Ponyo – $3.8 mil

- athar
( August 14th, 2009 | 4:43 am )
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Post #16
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My Predictions

1- District 9 – 35 M

2- G.I.JOE – 29 M

3- The Time traveler's wife – 22 M

4- Julie and Julia – 14 M

5- G-Force – 7 M

6- Bandslam – 6,5 M

7 – Ponyo – 6 M

8 – Harry Potter – 5.5 M

9 – The Goods – 4,5 M

10 – Funny People – 4 M

- Andre
( August 14th, 2009 | 6:52 am )
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Post #17
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1. District 9- $40.3 million
2. GI Joe Rise of the Cobra- $22.5 million
3. The Time Traveler's Wife- $16.2 million
4. Julie and Julia- $12.8 million
5. Bandslam- $10.1 million
6. Ponyo- $8.7 million
7. Harry Potter 6- $5.5 million
8. G-Force- $5.4 million
9. The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard- $4.3 million
10. (500) Days of Summer $4.0 million

Maybe I'm a bit high on District 9, but I feel the buzz here is building similarly to a little movie earlier in the year called the Hangover. I'm giving it a slightly lower location average, because I don't feel the sci-fi audience is as big as the comedy audience, but still, District 9 should easily win the weekend and then have some small drops in the weekend to come.

I'm putting GI Joe at a Fantastic 4 drop- the word of mouth has been mixed, but not so negative to give it a drop over 60%. District 9 will steal most of its audience, true, but the teenagers who are to young to get in still need something to watch, and this is really the only other option.

The Time Travelers Wife is another one that's tough to call. Almost all of the Rachel McAdams movie grab a location average around $5k, but I'm putting this one slightly higher because it's a best-selling novel, and the fans of the book are bound to come see it too. But again, I could be off, seeing as Julie and Julia is still doing business.

Bandslam is going to grab an extra couple million due to the fact that it's playing the New Moon trailer- also, I feel Vanessa Hudgens is a slightly larger draw than Ashley Tisdale, so I can't have it doing less than Aliens in the Attic. Also, most of the reviews have been very positive, so that fact might just save it from a drop over 40% next weekend.

Ponyo is the only other option for children for the weekend, but that G rating could play a larger difference than anyone might think- when was the last time a G rated movie came out in wide release? The safe option that draws so many parents with toddlers and young children, where they'll be safe from any language or sexual content? Plus, this guy is a fantastic filmmaker. So, like Bandslam, it should have a very small drop next weekend.

- Bustray
( August 14th, 2009 | 8:21 am )
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Post #18
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Finally back from vacation and ready to resume posting poor predictions!

1.District 9: 32.6mil
R-Rating might cap some of it's opening weekend potential, but I expect word of mouth to be good and carry this to 100mil

2.Gi Joe: 23.2mil
Personally, I found this easier to digest than Revenge of the Fallen. Looks headed for a 140mil domestic take, and north of 350mil worldwide. Those who grew up in the 80's lament the destruction of another one of their favorites (and rightfully so), but kids everywhere have been responding favorably to this one.

3.Julie and Julia: 13.8mil
I just think Meryl Streep and Amy Adams is a far bigger draw for women than Rachel McAdams, even if it's on it's 2nd weekend.

4.Time Travelers Wife: 12.5mil

5.Bandslam: 7mil
No "High School Musical" on the title..Timmmmberrrr!

- Raichu
( August 14th, 2009 | 11:02 am )
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Post #19
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1: District 9 with 28 mil
2: GI Joe with 20 mil
3: Band Slam with 14 mil
4: Juli and Julia with 12.5 mil
5: Harry Potter with 11.5 mil
6: Time Travellers Wife with 10.2 mil
7: 500 Days Of Summer with 7.5 mil
8a:Ponyo with 4.5 mil
8b:G-Force with 4.5 mil
10: The Goods with 3.8 mil ( Used Cars did it better )

- Jordan
( August 14th, 2009 | 12:15 pm )
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Post #20
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Curiosities: Here, in Portugal, G.I. Joe will fail to crack the 50000 spectators on is first weekend and Up will easily crack the 100000 spectators.

My predictions to EUA are:

1: District 9 – $30M
2: G.I. Joe – $23M
3: Time Travellers Wife – $17M
4: Jullie and Julia – $13M
5: BandSlam or G-Force – $6,5M

- Jonh-PT
( August 14th, 2009 | 2:29 pm )
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Post #21
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1.District 9 – $30M I have faith that audiences will check this one out. The reviews are amazing, the trailer is amazing, and I can't wait to see it. Right now, it's tracking at about 30M so it could do even better than this prediction. I hope so. The WOM is phenomenal, and we can only hope that it will help Hollywood to decide to take some risks on original material.

2. The Time Traveler's Wife – $22M The reviews are horrendous, but the marketing should get the ladies into the seats. I think it won't have the legs Julie and Julia will have, but right out the door, it should get some audiences looking for a romantic film.

3. G.I. Joe – $21M It's hard to believe we are in August with a potential to have three films break 20M over the weekend. G.I. Joe will take the requisite 60+% drop. I don't predict that it will do Transformers style business here, but as the only PG13 action for a bit, it should keep the teenagers busy while they get ready for school, so should have the ability to score $160M by time all is said and done.

4. Julie and Julia – $14M Gotta love Meryl. Am I right?

5. Bandslam – $12M Decent reviews should give it something, but what will get it something are all the tween girls who can't wait to see a New Moon trailer. That should give it more business that is necessary.

6. GForce – $6M
7. Harry Potter – $5.5M

8. The Goods – $4M I don't think this film will get people in the theaters. Jeremy Piven just isn't a draw no matter what the Entourage crowd is thinking.

9. 500 Days of Summer – $4M Could swap with The Goods
10. Funny People – $3.5M

I don't think Ponyo with its low theater count and lack of appeal for middle America will do anything this weekend. A lot of talk about original 2-D animation reminds me of Iron Giant, and we saw how well that did, great reviews or not.

- The Check Spot
( August 14th, 2009 | 2:59 pm )
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Post #22
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@jeremy wein
Half-Blood Prince had taken $557.7m Internationally ($836.4m Worldwide) going into the weekend so it already is the No1 box office movie this year. Not bad for a supposedly waning franchise.

- Michael
( August 14th, 2009 | 3:32 pm )
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Post #23
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i'm interested in seeing bandslam it looks good and as everyone said it has the new moon trailer i want to see the trailer (and i'm not the only guy in the world that likes twilight there may not be many but there are guys who like twilight) but i'm interested by (500) days of summer too i don't know which one to see this weekend because potter got taken out of my theatre this weekend dangit

- Justin Casey
( August 14th, 2009 | 10:35 pm )
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Post #24
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Bandaslam fails and begin at 10 with $0,9M. Distric domination with $14M, Time Traveler Wife with $7,7M ao G.I. Joe with $7,2M.

- Jonh-PT
( August 15th, 2009 | 12:07 pm )
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Post #25
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bandslam will make less then 3 mil and not even crack top 10

- jeremy wein
( August 15th, 2009 | 10:02 pm )
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