#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
The Peter Jackson produced District 9 is getting very healthy buzz, and it's a solid actioner. So why not? If you're choosing between slightly above average and flat out putrid I'm hoping you'll choose this one.
Estimate: $30.5 million
A very difficult movie to project. Revenge of the Fallen fell 61 percent — but that was with a Wednesday opening. I'm slotting G.I. Joe to fall 62 percent, because it's not as good as Revenge of the Fallen and I think word of mouth has probably spread. Plus, by aiming for a younger demo they've frontloaded the results.
Estimate: $20.8 million
I can't see this beating something like The Notebook at per theater average. So I've put it at $4700 per. It's nice counter-programming, but not super accessible for the rom-com crowd.
Estimate: $14.0 million
This is probably the most mysterious title on the board. Is it going to do High School Musical 3 numbers? Has anyone seen any advertising? It's that teen demo, and they are notoriously fickle.
Estimate: $11.7 million
It shouldn't be punished this weekend, only a 47 percent drop, the folks who opt out of Time Traveler's Wife will probably opt into this title.
Estimate: $10.7 million
This film is only getting 1500 theaters. That's not conducive to cracking the top five. I'd be interested to hear what you guys think of it, I haven't seen it yet.
Estimate: $7.5 million
It's a very crowded field, I have 15 films making over a million dollars and there are five relatively wide releases. Now then, the trend on G-Force indicates a 40 percent drop is highly probable.
Estimate: $5.2 million
Another victim of theater counts, plus Miyazaki has never dominated the domestic market. But it looks as thought Pixar is trying to give this one a fair shake; they've got about $200m in international grosses to help soften the domestic results.
Estimate: $4.6 million
It's gaining another 230 theaters this weekend, but the five new releases really cut into the momentum.
Estimate: $4.3 million
Funny People is two weeks and done (JM made a nice point on the running time hurting it). Perfect Getaway is a one and done. It's a tough August, and the numbers suggest the second weekend of the month is a bad place to be attempting to profit.
Estimate: $4.0 million
Who you got? Anyone daring enough to pick against District 9? Will G.I. Joe prove me wrong? And what do you make of Bandslam? Comment now… or forever hold your peace.