Hey friends. Let's see what's going down this weekend…

MY PREDICTIONS

1. 17 AGAIN – $24.2 million
People underestimate tweenage/teenage girls. HANNAH MONTANA swept the floor with Seth Rogen and beat the crap out of Fast & Furious last weekend, and Zac Efron has millions and millions of fangirls, that'll make absolute sure to see their main man on the screen opening night and over the weekend. No really, he appeals to both the cougars and the gerbils. Don't doubt it for a second. It's the only reason why Hannah Montana won't stay the number 1 kid movie this weekend (and lose a strong chunk of it's audience).

2. STATE OF PLAY – $20.8 million
Any reason why people are underestimating this one? There hasn't been a good, intelligent movie for adults to see in a LONG, LONG time, and that has a strong, talented cast like this one either. This will be the next special date night for the 30+ crowd and couples. It has Crowe and Affleck for the older folk, McAdams fans will stay loyal and everyone will be happy to see her again after a 3-ish-year absence, and the supporting cast is quite solid too. Expect it to do very well as old people return to the movies again. Haha. Even my parents are going to see it! Yeah, I know everyone of course doesn't have a top notch knowledge of who my parents are, but to keep it short… they only go out to the movies when there's something that really appeals to them. And I'm tellin' you.. this is really appealing to older people, regardless of the plot.

3. HANNAH MONTANA – $16.3 million
Not only does this audience rush out to see it opening weekend.. they rush out to see it again… and again… and again… and again… and again…
Sure, Efron will provide some rough competition, but lest we forget, that one is PG-13, while this is a family-friendly Disney G with a big ol' smile!

4. FAST AND FURIOUS – $13.8 million
It should hold up well with the teenage boy set… who might buy tickets for it in order to get into Crank.

5. CRANK 2 – $12.3 million
Believe it or not, there is actually a certain audience for this kind of smut, but I doubt a lot of moviegoers will be coming out in droves for this one. Just a hunch.

As for me.. there's nothing to see until May.

Also.. this will be the first weekend since the 2nd week in February that ALL the top 5 each will make more than $10+ million. It's about time the box office gets a boost! And it'll keep happening from here on out into the summer and not stop until late August.

As for next weekend… THE SOLOIST will come out on top, the Efron will stay in 2nd, while OBSESSED and FIGHTING duke it out to try the avoid the honor of being "the first, most quickly forgotten movie of the year" (my guess: Fighting will have the upper hand and avoid that terrible award). STATE OF PLAY is up in the air, while MONTANA continues to dominate the purses of little girls. All these films will then DIE the following weekend when Hugh Jackman and Matthew McCoughnahey team up to open up the Summer Movie Season. Interesting pair…

SUMMER MOVIE SEASON IS TWO WEEKS AWAY!!!!!!

Have a blessed weekend everyone! :]!
S

Really, 17 AGAIN is the film you're going to use that quote for "Sad, because it's not very well made"? How many #1 films are? And at least this one has the charisma-fiend Efron. Last weeks had Miley Lame.

Zac Efron tries, but not hard enough.

I hope that "Crank" will have a larger opening, but it's unlikely. That film has a very niche audience, and it'll surely be better off-screen then off. Most if not all of my friends are excited to see this film, but then again, my friends are all pretty much 20-something college students, the exact audience for the film. Besides, Jason Statham always opens in the $10-13 million range for his films- this one probably won't be different.

"17 Again" i hear is not completely horrible (unlike last week's top earner, which was painful to watch and just made my quote-unquote "date" just that much more worse), and the $27 million opening seems reasonable. I feel it's going to play like "Mean Girls" at best, at worst, like another magical teenage romantic comedy "13 Going on 30", seeing as this Zac Efron has a pretty big following, I hear.

"State of Play" I think might be a decent little hit- Universal has a knack for making the best out of little, modest films (see: "Breach", "The Good Shephard", even "Duplicity", while not considered a hit by any means, certainly could've done worse, considering the weak promotion and the hit-and-miss nature of the spy/comedy/thriller genre). Will it break the bank? Probably not, but I wouldn't be surprised if it opened to $17 million or more and held on exceptionally well for the next few weeks. Besides, there really hasn't been a movie that opened to this audience in a while (I guess the aforementioned "Duplicity" or before that, maybe "Gran Torino"), so it could definitely break out.

"Hannah Montana" I think will drop like a rock, "Fast and Furious" will hold decently well (at least better than last week), and "Observe and Report" will solidify itself as another disappointing star vehicle for Seth Rogen (although I thought that at best it would make maybe $40 million total, which won't be too far off of the actual number it'll make when it closes).

@Vince:

I meant to say "It'll surely play better on the small screen than on the big screen for its audience", don't know where "off-screen" came from…edit button needed, badly.

@Chuck Bartowski:

Is it weird that I'm actually looking forward to "Fighting"? Maybe it's because I can see Terrence Howard in anything and everything? Or maybe it's because the director's other film was one of the few movies in which Channing Tatum actually proves that he's an actor, not just a pretty boy?

"Obsessed" looks horrible by the way- I liked the film better when it was called "Swimfan" but I liked the film even better when it came out 20 years ago and was called "Fatal Attraction".

@Vince:
Surpriseingly "Fighting" is one of the movies i've been looking forward to the most lately, im not really sure why but it just seems like the type of thing I will really enjoy watching.

1. 17 Again- $22.8 million
While Zac Efron has a huge tween fanbase (ugh), this ones PG-13 rating should lower its gross down to the early 20s. Hannah Montana: The Movie should also steal a considerable amount of its disney following, but nevertheless, the heavy advertising for this one and hundreds of teenage girls already having their tickets pre-ordered should pull it in a considerable amount of cash.

2. State of Play- $16.8 million
This is the first movie older adults will be interested in since the weekend of I Love You, Man & Duplicity, and should pull many couples in for date night. Its PG-13 rating should also help attract teens who (like me) would rather see another movie without Zac Efron.

3. Hannah Montana: The Movie- $14.8 million
This one should see a drop around 55%. The good news is, this is the only relatively new release with a rating under PG-13. Also, fans should rush to go see the movie again, given that it received such positive responses from the audience. The bad news is; how many people who didn't see it in its first weekend are going to go and see it in its second?

4. Monsters Vs. Aliens- $13.4 million
This one should see a drop of around 38%. Family audiences who don't want to go see Hannah Montana: The Movie will undoubtedly choose this one, and it has the second highest theater count of the weekend. Unfortunately, it will not see as low a drop as it did last weekend, for there is no special holiday this weekend. Still, it should see a respectable amount come in and add to its total.

5. Crank 2- $12.7 million
This one doesn't have the star power of Zac Efron for tweens or the star power of Russell Crowe for adults. However, it does have a decent fan base, who should rush to go see it its first weekend. However, its R rating should prevent it from bringing in more then $14 million at the most.

6. Fast & Furious- $12.5 million
This one should see another lofty drop, nearly as bad as the one last weekend. The opening of Crank 2 should steal the adults from it, and teenagers will have 17 Again and State of Play to choose from for the weekend. Still, it has the largest theater count of all the movies this weekend, and should bring in anywhere from $12-13 million.

7. Observe & Report- $5.8 million
This one should see a lofty drop of around 50%. There is really no movies to steal its audience this weekend, but positive word of mouth certainly won't help it, and no one is really going to want to see it again. Still, older audiences who want a comedy should order tickets to this one.

8. I Love You, Man- $4.6 million
I know its unlikely that it will come in over Knowing. But a guy can always hope, can't he? If this one only drops 25%, and Knowing drops 30%, it CAN happen.

9. Knowing- $4.5 million
Ugh. I still don't understand why people keep seeing this. Interesting concept, but delivered horribly. Come on, Nicholas Cage. When are you going to stop signing up for these Sci-fi action films?

10. The Haunting In Connecticut- $3.4 million
Huh. As I said on a previous post, if this one can gross $23 million in its opening weekend with a PG-13 rating, a March opening, and no major names, than Drag Me To Hell, with a PG-13 rating, a summer opening, and Sam Raimi directing, it should open to around $32 million. I say it again. Huh.