Box-Office Oracle: Apr. 10 – Apr. 12, 2009
It's going to be very close at the top, Furious vs. Miley for all the crown.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
Oh, I do NOT feel good about this weekend. I think there are two real contenders, but Fast and Furious could slide anywhere from 52 to 62 percent. I've slotted it in at a 57 percent dive, which has it barely winning. It's gonna be a close one.
Estimate: $30.6 million
Trying to predict what teen girls like on any given weekend is damn near impossible. When you look at similar titles you come across the insane 40k+ per theater that Best of Both Worlds put up. But that particular film had condensed demand, they told parents it would only be in theaters for one weekend (which was a lie, of course). So I've put this at $9k per theater. Not because I'm certain, but because I'd rather go down with fast cars than teen fare. It could prove to be my undoing.
Estimate: $28.1 million
It's Rogen vs. Rogen at the box-office. And Rogen's PG work is going to beat Rogen's R work. Why? Because there are more parents who need a break than there are comedy-minded adults with disposable income right now. Barely.
Estimate: $19.2 million
Oh, maybe not barely. By nearly $7 million. Hmmm, let's see here. Did I forget to carry a one? Ahh, I get it now. The issue is that Zack and Miri is the closest thing we have to a trendline here, because Rogen has to carry the show. And it's rated R. So that's $4,500 per screen and my sincere condolences.
Estimate: $12.3 million
The top four will bank. The bottom six are stank. And if I get any mean comments about rhyming, so help me God, I will pull this CAR OVER. Now then, Adventureland, not enough theaters or interest to capitalize in its second weekend.
Estimate: $4.5 million
Oh dear. I just noticed that five movies are going to make around $4 million this weekend. Which means my chance of nailing placement is between slim and none. And slim left town.
As for Dragonball Evolution: they aren't screening it, so no reviews. I haven't seen any ads. And it's being released against two far better known films. All of this adds up to absolute doom for the Dragonball. Sorry, guys.
Estimate: $4.4 million
7. Knowing
When people ask me what to see this weekend I'm recommending this or Fast and Furious. One is pure escape, the other is a quasi-thought piece. And you don't need to tell me that Nic Cage hurts the material. I know he does. But if we all can just ignore him for a second a focus on the themes presented near the end of this movie… well, I think we'd have a hell of a BBQ conversation. You bring the beer.
Estimate: $4.3 million
I think someone should do a trailer that states "base on a true story" for something like The Fountain. If there's no such thing as truth in advertising why not have a little fun with it?
Estimate: $4.2 million
A deeper dip because Observe and Report takes a chunk out of its flank. Not too complicated.
Estimate: $4.1 million
10. Duplicity
Race to Witch Mountain finishes 11th with $1.5m. That's a bonus projection for you.
Estimate: $1.7 million
Your turn… What do you think? You like Miley, Fast and Furious, or is your dark horse a dark comedy? It's a tough weekend to call, or is it easy and I am just over-thinking it? I know one thing, my brain hurts… nap time.
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