UPDATED: 'Alice' Will Take Third Straight Weekend With $8.6 Million at Friday Box-Office
Once again the newcomers come up lacking
UPDATED: The numbers have been updated with more accurate estimates courtesy of Box-Office Mojo.
Disney's Alice in Wonderland is quite the major success with over $230 million at the domestic box-office rolling into this weekend and it will add approximately $33-35 million afterwards with an estimated $9.9 million at the box on Friday to take the number one slot yet again.
Coming in second, third and fourth place are the weekend's three major new releases beginning with the Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler rom-com The Bounty Hunter pulling in $7.6 million on Friday in 3,074 theaters. The number will likely translate to $20-22 million for the weekend if they're lucky. Word of mouth on the film, which carries a dismal 8% rating at RottenTomatoes, could take it down even further, which means…
Fox's Diary of a Wimpy Kid is likely to leap frog the Aniston and Butler team-up and take the little kid audience dollars, which tallied $7.4 million on Friday and turn it into much more over the weekend. The likely number, as Nikki Finke points out at Deadline, is in the $25 million range. Had the reviews been a bit better than the 52% RottenTomatoes is averaging I would guess even higher.
The weekend's other new wide release is Universal's Repo Men and it isn't pretty for a second weekend in a row for the U. The Jude Law and Forest Whitaker sci-fi actioner earned a measly $2.2 million on Friday and will have to try really hard to hit the $6 million mark for the weekend. The film lost most any momentum it may have had after reviews started hitting the Internet calling it derivative of similar dystopian films that came before it. The film was already fighting an uphill battle in that sector as many called it a Repo! The Genetic Opera rip-off, but visually it ripped off much more than that to the tune of a 20% RottenTomatoes rating. I didn't particularly mind it, but as one commenter pointed out in the comments on my review, the ending runs the risk of leaving audiences feeling as if they just wasted a lot of their time.
The rest of the early Friday numbers as supplied by Deadline are directly below. Laremy will be here on Sunday morning with a complete recap of the weekend. Until then, any of you check out any of the new releases this week? Any thoughts you'd like to share?
- Alice In Wonderland – $9.9 million
- The Bounty Hunter – $7.6 million
- Diary of a Wimpy Kid – $7.4 million
- Repo Men – $2.2 million
- She's Out of My League – $1.9 million
- Green Zone – $1.8 million
- Shutter Island – $1.4 million
- Remember Me – $1.2 million
- Our Family Wedding – $1.1 million
- Avatar – $1 million
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Ghost Writer got 800 or so theaters this weekend. That should be enough to crack the top 10, or at least I would think. I'm seeing it later this afternoon.
I was 1 of only 5 people in a 242 seat auditorium for the noon show Friday. Okay it's a weekday, but still. I loved the movie, but fear it has no hope of cracking the top 10. A little advertising might have helped, I haven't seen much for this.
Point taken. I finally saw it tonight and loved it, but it was in one of the smallest auditoriums and was still only about 1/4 full. It is way too far behind the #10 spot after friday to crack the charts.
I wish more young people would read movie reviews. Any time I go see a critically acclaimed or "art house" type movie, the theater consists of 90% older folks. Anyone else ever notice that?
To Kevin: I think it's not bad at all. Those young people who can appreciate these kinds of films will see it anyway. Those who can't – they'll only spoil the experience for everybody else.
Looks like Avatars last weekend.
Repo Men may miss what I had imagined to be a theortical floor of about $6.3 million. I actually read bad things about it months ago from people who had actually seen it, and I decided to skip it even though I was interested. I suppose having a film in the can for two and a half years is not only a bad sign for how good a movie is, but affects the movie's opening weekend since news about it is bound to leak out.
The BOM numbers are a little higher for pretty much everything, most notable Alice, which they have pegged at $9.9 million. Given the mammoth Saturdays it's put up the last two weekends that should translate to around $35 million, maybe a little more. That seems to make more sense, because Finke's numbers would have it falling over 50% from last weekend, which seems odd for a third weekend when it only fell 45 or what ever percent from its first to second weekends.
Other than that…brutally nasty falls for last week's films (except Remember Me, which only looks to fall around 50%), and a dreadful start for Repo Men. I'm glad I overestimated The Bounty Hunter, but sad that I underestimated Wimpy Kid and people are actually seeing it. Avatar will probably flip up into the 9 spot and maybe even higher, which means it might be able to grab another weekend in the top 10. If it does, it would likely fall out the first weekend in April, the same weekend Titanic lost #1 twelve years ago. I didn't like Avatar, but that's still interesting to note.
So does this mean that Alice in Wonderland will eventually exceed $300M domestically? That's got to be pretty unusual for movie released in March.
If it don't, then it will be damn close to it.
It'll definitely get to $300 million. It'll be around $265 at the end of the weekend, and it'll get another $15 million at least next weekend, plus what it makes this week, so at the end of next weekend it should be around $290 million. The question now is how much higher can it go? It's numbers will start to hurt over the next couple weeks as it loses 3D screens, so I'd say $350 million is unlikely now. But still, considering the time of year, those are pretty astounding numbers, even if they are inflated by 3D.
Question:
When is a summer blockbuster not a summer blockbuster?
Answer:
When it is released in March!
Alice In Wonderland has already outgunned a lot of last year's summer blockbusters, and maybe a few more in the coming weeks.
How many of you reken that AIW would have worked well as a summer blockbuster?
Actually yeah, I doubt that Alice would have been able to put up these kind of numbers had it been released in the summer, simply because there's so much more competition. Though it would have bigger weekday numbers, especially if it had been released in June or later, when school is out. As I said last week or the week before, Disney played it pretty much flawlessly with the release date, marketing, etc. And it will outgross all of last summer's biggest films except Transformers, but of those, only Up had 3D to push the numbers up. 3D and IMAX ticket prices seem to have inflated its numbers by just under 20%
How to train your dragon next week
Clash of the titans the week afer and the week of april 9th(clash of the titans looks awesome and date night, has a great cast, but isnt advertised much and it doesnt look that funny)
Kick Ass after that(amazing reviews and looks awesome)
When I tell people I am a Miley Cyrus fan, many can't understand it. So I'm glad to see someone who is a fan of something I just can't understand. This is why I cut Twilight fans some slack, too. I also work with a "Trekkie". Are the Kick Ass comics bigger than the Watchmen comics?
No not at all. "Watchmen" is a seminal piece of (comic) literature. Anyone who might call themselves a fan of comic books has read it, I can tell you that much.
"Kick Ass" has a following, but a smaller one. It has about the same following as for "Wanted" (coincidentally by the same creator, Mark Millar). I'm glad they're following the "Zombieland" school of marketing, where they're promising a straight-up, balls to the wall thrill ride. That's what the comic is, and that's what the film is shaping up to be, unlike how "Watchmen"'s marketing forgot to mention that the movie was 90% dialogue and mystery.
It could do "Watchmen" numbers, and that'd be awesome. I'm going to be more conservative and go with a total in the $80+ range, but let's see how much the hype builds these next few weeks, huh?
Kick Ass is probably the Hot Fuzz/Enchanted of superhero movies.
Hot Fuzz was a parody of buddy cop action flicks such as the Bad Boys movies and Rush Hour trilogy.
Enchanted was a parody of fairytales.
I quess people don't like to support direct plagarism what with Repo bombing. Good.
Wow, how to train your dragons was released here in Indonesia since yesterday, and it's an action packed animation movie, some scene reminded me of Avatar somehow, but awesome experience for animation movie. The story was okay though. My friends all like it…
Regards from Indonesia
Interesting fact
In recent years, apart from The Passion of Christ, movies haven't been generally big hits in the January/March period unless they had a PG rating.
The Proof
Last year it was Paul Blart: Mall Cop that led the pack of $100 million+ grosses. This year it's Alice In Wonderland leading the pack of $100 million+ grosses.