2014 Oscar Predictions: A Quickie Best Picture Update

2014-oscar-predictions-best-pictureI've been updating my 2014 Oscar predictions here and there without making a big deal about it as of late (including finally opening the doors on the Best Documentary category) and among the changes, today I made a slight shuffle in the Best Picture category.

As far as I see it, nothing has changed at the top for some time as it seems as if the race is largely down to just 12 Years a Slave vs. American Hustle while Gravity is poised to play a possible spoiler as it is likely to be the night's biggest winner, largely in tech categories.

The biggest question left is to wonder how many nominees will there be? Will The Wolf of Wall Street make the cut? Will Inside Llewyn Davis? Just how much traction has Dallas Buyers Club gained as of late?

You can find all of my predictions right here and I've included my predicted nine Best Picture nominees directly below.

  1. 12 Years a Slave
  2. American Hustle
  3. Gravity
  4. Nebraska
  5. Captain Phillips
  6. Her
  7. Saving Mr. Banks
  8. Inside Llewyn Davis
  9. The Wolf of Wall Street

Once again, final ballots are due today at 5 PM PST and the nominations will be announced next Thursday, January 16th.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Adu/ Adu

    I will be very proud of the Academy if Saving Mr. Banks is NOT nominated for Best Picture...what a contrived piece of junk that was...in my humblest opinion :)

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      I would definitely support Banks dropping out before Wolf and Llewyn, but the safe nature of it makes it a likely nominee.

  • http://cineenuruguay.com/ Driver

    I have nothing against Banks, mainly beacuse I havent seen it, but for me its buzz is starting to fade away, while Wolf's is stronger than ever. At this point, I would consider an 8 nom list without Banks in it. Again, I have nothing against it, I really want to see it, but it feels like it go away.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/kevinb/ kevinb

      You should see Saving Mr. Banks. Disregard the trailer for it (terrible!). It is touching and heartfelt, with a great back story. All performances are top notch. It's an old fashioned Disney film, and in my opinion : EXCELLENT ! BTW : So is Wolf of Wall Street !

      • http://cineenuruguay.com/ Driver

        I'm really exited to see it as that, an old fashioned Disney film, the thing is that it doesn't come out in my country until a couple of weeks. Oh, and Wolf of Wall Street, I absolutely loved it, number one on my Top 10 for now.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/navaneethks/ navaneethks

    Is it just me or the awards race this season isn't all that appealing? There is no one stand out film everybody is passionate about. Feels like something is missing. Even though there are some obvious victors in certain categories, for example the cinematography and visual effects are great in Gravity... I am not finding myself actively rooting for it to win unlike last year with Life of Pi. As of right now, the only category I am very passionate about is Cate Blanchett to win Best Actress for Blue Jasmine.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheLastEquivocationofBrist/ TheLastEquivocationofBrist

      I'm with you. Hopefully I'll feel a bit differently once I finally see Her and Inside Llewyn Davis this weekend...but it sounds like those two don't have much chance anyway. My favorite movie to "champion" in a given year never seems to win.

      Feels like Brad reviewed those movies forever ago, now I finally get to see them in January haha

    • http://hauntedbyhumans.wordpress.com J.R.Meehl

      I'd say people are pretty passionate about 12 Years a Slave

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/kevinb/ kevinb

        There are some passionate responses to 12 Years A Slave, but I think there is some backlash as well. I know a lot of people who just DO NOT want to see it. I totally understand both sides ....

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Beautifulm/ Beautifulm

      IMHO, the awards race is never appealing towards the end. Everyone knows who's going to win so they're dull and predictable just like every year.

    • TallBoy6t6

      Gravity because how bout a sci-fi movie wins best picture for once

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/WhiskeynRecords/ Kyle Lucas

    I finally saw 'Wolf' last night, and thought it was straight-up bad. I know it'll still be nominated, but at this point I'd rather see the uneven 'Dallas' get in over it.

  • Fruity Fonzie

    i think Dallas Buyers Club and Philomena are ahead of ILD

  • Joe Sadowski

    I think "Blue Jasmine" will sneak in and "Dallas Buyers Club" will benefit from all the SAG screeners sent out which may score it a BP nom. Since "Blue is the Warmest Color" is ineligible for foreign film, it might sneak in as well. There's always a twist with the Oscars. BTW, is writers guild nominee "Lone Survivor" eligible this year?

  • Shane O’Neal

    Am I the only one still holding out a ridiculous hope that Frozen will get a Best Picture nomination? Yes? Okay then.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/StephanieB/ StephanieB

      Frozen getting a Best Picture nomination would be delightful.

    • http://imqwerty.wordpress.com/ Jordan B.

      That would be delightful, but it's not going to happen. Should garner a win in the Song category (how does "Let It Go" not win?) and I'm hoping it takes Best Animated Feature.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheLastEquivocationofBrist/ TheLastEquivocationofBrist

      I'd give Frozen a nod over Gravity for sure.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    This looks like such a tight year at the bottom. The nine you have listed definitely feel like the safest. But at the same time, is there any way a Weinstein title won't get in (likely The Butler)? Dallas Buyers has been showing up everywhere lately, which makes it a strong contender. And mathematically it's almost impossible to have ten nominees, which means at least one of those nine will probably drop out. And based on what I've seen this last week, it seems likely to be Llewyn Davis. Mr. Banks has no buzz at all, but I just can't see that not making the cut with the Academy. I feel like there are seven highly likely nominees out of nine total, and Banks or Wolf could still slip out. So I only see five locks right now.

    1 (tie). American Hustle
    1 (tie). 12 Years a Slave
    3. Nebraska
    4. Gravity
    5. Captain Phillips

    6. Saving Mr. Banks
    7. The Wolf of Wall St

    After that it's tough. Her seems like it should be in, but if a couple films lower down sneak in I could see it slipping out. The nine spot is really tough. For now I'm going with Dallas Buyers but The Butler is still right there. Unfortunately that leaves Llewyn Davis as a longer shot.

    8. Her
    9. Dallas Buyers Club
    10. The Butler
    11. Inside Llewyn Davis
    12. August Osage County

  • http://timeforafilm.com/ Alex Thomas

    I think the noms could get interesting this year.

    American Hustle, Captain Phillips, 12 Years A Slave, Nebraska and Gravity are locked in, but the other 3-4 spots will be interesting. I don't see Her as a lock (although I think it will get in) and Saving Mr Banks should make it.

    Which leaves 1-2 of Wolf, Blue Jasmine, ILD, DBC + Philomena.

    I can still wish for a miracle in Fruitvale Station popping in there haha.

  • stephan boxie

    If savinm mr. banks gets in and spoil the best picture race (AND PLEASE NO "The Butler) I will die. This is from the same crap director as "The Blind Side" his films all have plastic wrapping over them. They are about notheng and are afraid to try anything non traditional. Saving Mr. Banks making Walt Disney a saint and The Blind Side says nothing about poverty or race in America and it treated the black star of the film like an accesory for sandra bullock rather that a 3d person

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

    I'm wondering if this might be the year we get ten films, what with no clear consensus. I feel Saving Mr. banks, Dallas Buyers Club and Inside Llewyn Davis have all mustered up the same amount of attention. I might make that pick, risky as it is for my predictions

  • the dude-o

    I've heard that Wolf of Wall Street has a good chance of staying in and that Llewyn Davis was the one more likely to miss out, but I'm no expert so time will tell I guess...