2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Director, Actor and Supporting Actor Update

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Director, Actor and Supporting Actor Update
Bruce Dern and Will Forte in Nebraska
Photo: Paramount Vantage

It's about time to start getting a little more serious about these 2014 Oscar predictions and updating a little more frequently as I've just updated my Best Director predictions for the first time since premiering them earlier this year along with updates in the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor categories. I need to take a look at the screenplay contenders and even start working in some thoughts in the craft categories sooner rather than later as well.

That said, let's take a look at the two actor categories where the main reason for today's update was a category switch-a-roo between the Nebraska boys Bruce Dern and Will Forte. It seems Dern will most likely be campaigning in the Supporting category with Forte campaigning as lead. Having seen the film (my review here) I guess you can say Dern is supporting, but I don't think that necessarily makes Forte the lead, but whatever.

The switch has caused a change at the top of both categories as Dern exits the top five for Best Actor and joins the top five for Best Supporting Actor. I've also moved Christian Bale into the top five for Best Actor for David O. Russell's American Hustle, the only acting category he's yet to direct an actor to a win in. Will Bale be #1?

My Best Actor top five is as follows with the full list of 35 contenders right here.

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
  2. Robert Redford (All is Lost)
  3. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
  4. Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)
  5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey in The Wolf of Wall Street
Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey in The Wolf of Wall Street
Photo: Paramount Pictures

In the Supporting Actor category Michael Fassbender (Twelve Years a Slave) has moved out of my top five as Dern moved in and I've addressed the question many asked last time out as to why I didn't include Matthew McConaughey for his role in Martin Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street after he played such a prominent role in the film's trailer:

McConaughey plays the role of Mark Hanna and it is an extremely small role if the film sticks to Belfort's book. Hanna's part in the story will likely take up the first few minutes of the movie in a scene that kicks off the story six years before the narrative actually gets underway. His character is someone Jordan Belfort (Leonardo DiCaprio) meets and has lunch with on his first day on Wall Street. The scene sets up Belfort's impending rise as he's astonished to learn this is what it means to be a power broker on Wall Street. Hanna becomes someone Belfort not only wants to be, but will, one day, rule over.

In the book Belfort ends his introduction of Mark writing:

In that very instant if someone told me that in just a few short years I would end up owning the very restaurant I was now sitting in and that Mark Hanna, along with half the other brokers at LF Rothschild would end up working for me, I would have said they were crazy. And if someone told me that I would be snorting lines of cocaine off the bar in this very restaurant, while a dozen high-class hookers looked on in admiration, I would say that they had lost their fucking mind.

Hopefully that gives you some idea as to what to expect from Wolf of Wall Street and a better idea as to why McConaughey isn't in my top five. The character is never mentioned again in the book.

That said, here is my top five in the category as of now, you can see the full list of 40 contenders right here.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
  2. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
  3. Matt Damon (Monuments Men)
  4. Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
  5. Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)

Now to Best Director, where I've added five new names, one of which enters my top five and another jumping from #20 to #4.

To begin, my top three is still George Clooney (Monuments Men), Russell (American Hustle) and Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street). The new name, or more appropriately, names at #4 are Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis, which I expect to be a big hit with critics once it's released later this year and the Academy alike. I loved it when I saw it at Cannes and don't see any reason it won't have a similar effect on the rest of the industry.

And in fifth is one of my five newcomers and another film I saw and loved at Cannes, J.C. Chandor (All is Lost), which is not only a great film, but proves the director of Margin Call is no fluke.

Here's the top five and you can browse my full list of 33 contenders here.

Best Director

  1. George Clooney (Monuments Men)
  2. David O. Russell (American Hustle)
  3. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
  4. Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
  5. J.C. Chandor (All is Lost)

You can see all of my full 2014 Oscar Prediction charts right here. You will need to be a logged in member of RopeofSilicon to view any rankings beyond the top five, but registration is free so that shouldn't be too much trouble.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/EPayneDDS/ EPayneDDS

    REEEEEAAAAALLLLLLYYYYYY hope Leo isn't snubbed again this year. Really feel like the Academy is just jealous...

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fox/ Fox

      I don't understand the whole "It's outrageous Leonardo DiCaprio doesn't have an Oscar yet!" craze. Sure he's a solid actor but I've never really been blown away by him. He's got a great gig teaming up with Scorsese every couple years, and the movies are great, but he's never been a tremendous or versitile actor in my mind. In my opinion, there are other people out there who haven't gotten a statue who deserve it more.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Brennan/ Brennan F

        There are these weird fanboys and girls that latch onto certain actors/actresses and just go from blog site to blog site to commentariat to commentariat telling anyone that will listen why Leo or Naomi Watts or Nicole Kidman or Tarantino's (etc.) newest film/role will win ALL the awards and DESERVES to win because they are due and the Academy owes them and blah blah blah. They are delusional fans.

        They were out in full force last year saying Watts deserved to win for her incredibly boring and pedestrian role even though she should not have been nominated. As well as the ones I mentioned above. It grows tiresome because we know it's all about who captures lightning in a bottle come Nov-Dec or who has the best PR team!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    Best Director
    1. Martin Scorcese, The Wolf of Wall Street
    2. George Clooney, The Monuments Men
    3. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
    4. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
    5. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
    Alternate: Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips, J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
    Numbers 5 and 6 are almost interchangeable, as the films could both be great directorial achievements.

    Best Actor
    1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
    2. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
    3. Robert Redford, All is Lost
    4. George Clooney, The Monuments Men
    5. Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
    Alternate: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
    I think this is the point where the Academy gives Leo the Oscar, even if he doesn't deserve it.

    Best Supporting Actor
    1. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
    2. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
    3. John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
    4. Brad Pitt, The Counselor
    5. Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf of Wall Street

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/navaneethks/ navaneethks

    Really hope Leo wins this year. Loved pretty much all of his movies.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Avatar/ Avatar

    What about Matthew McConaughey for Mud as Best Actor? That would be a smart way to recognize him for both his brilliant performance in that film and the small role he has in The Wolf of Wall Street.

    • Bertram J. Krogh

      Not to mention his tremendous work last year.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/absiddique/ AB Siddique

    Leo for the best actor and McConaughey for the supporting actor! I loved the trailer and Marty never make bad movies. End of discussion mate.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/absiddique/ AB Siddique

    By the way, where is Benedict Cumberbatch for August: Osage County?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Please read the entire article.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Jack/ Jack Tyler

    1. David O. Russell- American Hustle
    2. George Clooney- The Monuments Men
    3. Martin Scorsese- The Wolf of Wall Street
    4. Alfonso Cuaron- Gravity
    5. Steve McQueen- 12 Years a Slave
    ALT: Coen Brothers

    1. Leonardo DiCaprio- The Wolf of Wall Street
    2. Robert Redford- All Is Lost
    3. Steve Carell- Foxcatcher
    4. Chiwetel Ejifor- 12 Years a Slave
    5. Matthew McConegheny- Dallas Buyer's Club

    1. Bruce Dern- Nebraska
    2. Tom Hanks- Saving Mr. Banks
    3. Mark Ruffalo- Foxcatcher
    4. Josh Brolin- Labor Day
    5. Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave

  • http://couchpotatodigest.blogspot.com Matt

    Obviously, these are all shots in the dark. But why not...

    Best Actor:

    1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street
    2. Robert Redford, All is Lost
    3. Christian Bale, American Hustle
    4. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
    5. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

    Best Supporting Actor:

    1. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
    2. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
    3. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
    4. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
    5. Alec Baldwin, Blue Jasmine

    Best Director:

    1. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
    2. David O. Russell, American Hustle
    3. Alfonso Cauron, Gravity
    4. The Coens, Inside Llewyn Davis
    5. J.C. Chandor, All is Lost

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Newbourne/ Newbourne

    I don't see Wallace getting into the Top 5. And I don't think DiCaprio is getting in there either. They keep screwing him over every year.

    It's going to be:

    #1. Christian Bale
    #2. George Clooney
    #3. Robert Redford
    #4. Michael Fassbender
    #5. Oscar Isaac

    Tom Hanks, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Josh Brolin, Forrest Whitaker and Leonardo DiCaprio are the spoilers here.

    As for Supporting Actor, Bruce Dern is taking it. He's going to Plummer through all the awards shows. Bet on it.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Newbourne/ Newbourne

    Whoring it out my work for your sister's mother-in-law, but I don't think there would be much of a demand if I started doing it.

  • http://www.javiersolorzanocasarin.com XaviCasarin

    Brad, don't you think Phillip Seymour Hoffman might get nominated for "A Most Wanted"? just saw the trailer he looks amazing!

  • http://www.javiersolorzanocasarin.com XaviCasarin

    sorry... it's "A Most Wanted Man" ja

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