It was important to update my Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay predictions since they hadn't been touched since I originally debuted them. Since they first premiered I've seen nine of my 25 Original Screenplay contenders, but only two of my 20 contenders in the Adapted category. So with 34 more of these films yet to be seen and what will likely be another few contenders added as we move along, it's still very early in the game as this aren't categories as easily sussed out before we begin moving into the thick of things.
That said, I've added three new contenders to my Adapted ranks and two in the Original category, though none of these new contenders cracked the top five in either category and I'm still unsure if the bottom four in my Adapted predictions -- The Railway Man, Devil's Knot, A Most Wanted Man and Winter's Tale -- will even hit theaters this year.
In the Original category the list is topped by Eric Singer's script for American Hustle followed by Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine, which moves up several notches from #10 and Joel and Ethan Coen's Inside Llewyn Davis moves from #23 to #3, which has been a common theme in my predictions since seeing the movie at Cannes.
Just outside the top five is a new contender and one of the best films I saw at Cannes (if not the best) in J.C. Chandor's All is Lost (read my review here). What will be interesting with this one is Chandor's screenplay is only 30 pages long and largely consists of prose describing one scene to the next, with virtually zero dialogue. Can such a screenplay earn a nomination from the Academy? I think it should, but I'm keeping it just out for now.
As for the Adapted contenders, there's only one change in my top five as Tracy Letts' adaptation of his own play, August: Osage County, moves from #6 to #4 while I've shuffled Jason Reitman's Labor Day down to #7. Otherwise the top five remains.
- George Clooney and Grant Heslov (Monuments Men)
- Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye (Foxcatcher)
- Terence Winter (The Wolf of Wall Street)
- Tracy Letts (August: Osage County)
- Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
- Eric Singer (American Hustle)
- Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
- Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
- Asghar Farhadi (The Past)
- Cormac McCarthy (The Counselor)
You can see all of my full 2014 Oscar Prediction charts right here. You will need to be a logged in member of RopeofSilicon to view any rankings beyond the top five, but registration is free so that shouldn't be too much trouble.