Oscar Predictions

2013 Oscars: Final, Pre-Nomination Predictions

One last look before the big announcement

2013 Oscar nomination predictions
Photo: RopeofSilicon / AMPAS

Tomorrow morning at 5:30 AM PST the Academy will announce the 2013 Oscar nominations and if you've been with me over the course of the last five months or so, you know I've been tracking Oscar predictions the entire time and it's finally time to come to a final decision on the following 21 categories.

I have included a few thoughts on several of the categories as well as links to where you can find my full field of presumed contenders and how I've ranked them. You can also click here to visit my Oscar predictions homepage for a snapshot of all 21 categories in one place.

I have ranked each of the categories to where the nominee on the #1 line is my current presumed winner. Once the nominations are announced I will be adjusting all the categories accordingly and we will continue on toward Sunday, February 24 when the 2013 Oscars will be held.

For a complete look at the upcoming Awards Schedule you can click here as you'll want to be here with us tomorrow night as we live blog the Critics Choice Awards and this Sunday for our live blog of the 2013 Golden Globe Awards.

However, for now, let's have a look at my predictions for tomorrow's 2013 Oscar nominees and please weigh in with your thoughts in the comments below.

Best Picture

Lincoln posterI considered taking both Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom out. I considered moving both Amour and Skyfall in. I couldn't figure out if The Master had fallen as hard as it seemed and now I'm seeing a couple of Oscar pundits giving The Intouchables a chance at a Best Picture nod.

So what did I change? Nothing.

I'm starting to feel this year's Best Picture race could just as easily end up with six nominations, with Django and Pi battling for that last slot, or ten, with some combination of my last two in and those other films mentioned above filling out slots 8-10. So I'm sticking with what feels best and hoping for just that.

  1. Lincoln
  2. Argo
  3. Les Miserables
  4. Zero Dark Thirty
  5. Silver Linings Playbook
  6. Django Unchained
  7. Life of Pi
  8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
  9. Moonrise Kingdom

You can browse my complete chart of Best Picture contenders and their rankings right here.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis in LincolnWe all know Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win Best Actor. If you don't proclaim to "know" it, you're at the very least "pretty sure". Below him it seems a safe bet Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Denzel Washington (Flight) have nominations wrapped up. But what about John Hawkes (The Sessions)?

So little has been said about The Sessions after it premiered at Sundance, though everyone seems to recognize Hawkes' performance as one of the year's best. Then there's Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) who told Interview magazine he believed the Oscar race was "total, utter bullshit". Little has been heard from Phoenix since and the film itself has faded just as quickly.

As for now, I'm going with Hawkes, but a Phoenix nom wouldn't surprise me.

  1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
  2. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
  3. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
  4. Denzel Washington (Flight)
  5. John Hawkes (The Sessions)

You can browse my complete chart of Best Actor contenders and their rankings right here.

Best Actress

AmourWhen it comes to locks you have Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) and Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty). There there's Naomi Watts (The Impossible) who has come on strong lately with Golden Globe, SAG and Critics Choice nominations. Watts seems like a sure thing... is she?

Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) and Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) have seemed like the best bets for the final two slots for the longest time, but with Watts moving in that moves Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) out and Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) is looking to play spoiler with her Golden Globe and SAG nominations.

What is to be done?

As hard a decision it was to make, I had to move Wallis out of the top five. Beasts of the Southern Wild was ineligible for a SAG nomination and it went home without a Golden Globe nomination and I think Wallis is going to lose out as a result.

  1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
  2. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
  3. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
  4. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
  5. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

You can browse my complete chart of Best Actress contenders and their rankings right here.

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem in SkyfallYour confidence in Skyfall's approval with the Academy would seem to be a big factor in whether you go with Javier Bardem for that fifth slot or with Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained), but the competition among the Django cast members -- DiCaprio, Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson -- doesn't bode well for all three. As such, I can't help but go with Bardem in the end.

  1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
  2. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
  3. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
  4. Alan Arkin (Argo)
  5. Javier Bardem (Skyfall)

You can browse my complete chart of Best Supporting Actor contenders and their rankings right here.

Best Supporting Actress

Nicole Kidman in The PaperboyPicking the fifth and final slot is a crap shoot and, if you look around the Internet, you'll see many others don't have much faith in Amy Adams (The Master) securing a nomination either.

I'm sticking with Adams even though The Master has clearly lost favor along the way and while I don't consider the BAFTA awards to be something that help predict the Oscars all that well, the absence of Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) from their list of nominees makes it easier to shift Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) into that final fifth slot, even if my confidence in the decision isn't running at 100%... or even 75% for that matter, but these decisions must be made and it would seem I have the confidence of the readers at the same time.

Yet, Ann Dowd (Compliance), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) and Judi Dench (Skyfall) serve as very possible substitutes.

  1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
  2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
  3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
  4. Amy Adams (The Master)
  5. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

You can browse my complete chart of Best Supporting Actress contenders and their rankings right here.

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  • D.A.M.

    I really hope The Master and Beasts are nominated for best picture. I really really do.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/DavidG/ David Gaillardetz

      I agree, but I am doubtful. Beasts hopefully will sneak in, but the Master is fading. Such a shame. :-/

      • Bertram J. Krogh

        So glad Beasts got so many nominations! Cheered out loud when they said Quvenzhan’e Wallis! And Benh Zeitlin! Daaamn :D
        And Amour and Silver Linings Playbook garnered a lot of unexpected notice :D

        Biggest ‘shocks’ for me is John Hawkes snub, Ben Affleck directing snub, Kathryn Bigelow not getting nominated (I’m fine with this, great movie, but it was sooooo expected she would be nominated, and possibly win), and Christoph Waltz ripping out the nod from Leo’s hands! Haha! I am fine with it, just a little shocked he was the one from Django to get it :P And Matt McConaughey didn’t get nominated, which I am perfectly fine with, I thought he was excellent in Killer Joe, but overrated in Magic Mike.

        The one performance no one ever talked about, but I would have nominated without hesitation, is Hugo Weaving in Last Ride. You probably don’t know about it :P

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Avatar/ Avatar

    Life of Pi for Cnematography when the movie was filmed behind a green screen? Over Django Unchained?! The Master?! Just no.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      You have an interesting username considering Avatar won for the same thing followed by Hugo two years later. :)

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/DavidG/ David Gaillardetz

        Well played, Brad. Well played.

      • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

        Touché.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/RandallPMcMurphy/ Randall P McMurphy

          Brad's right, but its an interesting point though. How can movies done almost completely with a green screen win over movies that do put effort into the photography?

  • Kyle

    I really think The Master's cinematography and production design were flawless and if the Academy voters don't see that, then they are just plain silly.

    • Jake17

      Eh, they're plain silly anyways.

  • Winchester

    I'm only doing the big 6 categories here but I'm gonna go with this list - all listed alphabetically not in order of preference.

    Best Picture

    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Moonrise Kingdom
    The Sessions
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Director

    Ben Affleck (Argo)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
    Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
    Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

    Best Actor

    Bradley Cooper
    John Hawkes
    Hugh Jackman
    Daniel Day Lewis
    Denzel Washington

    Best Supporting Actor

    Alan Arkin
    Robert DeNiro
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Phillip Seymour Hoffman
    Tommy Lee Jones

    Best Actress

    Jessica Chastain
    Marion Cotillard
    Jennifer Lawrence
    Emmanuelle Riva
    Naomi Watts

    Best Supporting Actress

    Judi Dench (Skyfall)
    Sally Field
    Anne Hathaway
    Helen Hunt
    Nicole Kidman

    Not that I would actually support some of these as being worth nominating, but these are the calls I'm making. Though I almost added Jean Louis Tringigant in Best Actor for 'Amour' because each year lately there is almost always at least one nomination that seems to spring almost from nowhere at the last minute and I'm sure will be one tomorrow as well.

    • Winchester

      Balls - I forgot to include Django in the Best Picture list. Also, I know Playbook probably WILL get nominated over The Sessions but I figured there's room amongst the 'just there for the party' noms to throw it in there.

  • Movie fan

    Am I the only one who feels that Tarantino will replace Lee

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

      I think Tarantino's in over Hooper, Lee seems pretty safe to me.

    • Jake17

      I feel Russel replaces Hooper (the BAFTA snub didn't help him) and QT might replace Lee, but I'm keeping Lee on my predictions.

  • Jesse3232

    I don't think Hooper will make the final cut but I'm not 100% sure who will take his place. My money's on Tarantino or Russell

  • Movie fan

    Also I still believe Phoenix will beat Hawkes and I believe Skyfall and The Master will sneak into the best picture spot

  • bill

    Brad, do you really think Lincoln can muster 14 nominations as you have predicted? I love the movie but I'm not so sure..

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Yeah, though I may be wrong on one of the sound noms. Otherwise I think so.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

    Here are my predictions for the big six categories. You can find the rest of my predictions linked through my Twitter account here: https://twitter.com/leiendeckera

    Best Picture

    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Dark Horses: Amour, Moonrise Kingdom

    Best Director

    Ben Affleck – Argo
    Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
    Ang Lee – Life of Pi
    Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
    Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

    Dark Horses: Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master, Tom Hooper - Les Miserables

    Best Actor

    Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
    Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
    Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
    Denzel Washington – Flight

    Dark Horse: John Hawkes – The Sessions

    Best Actress

    Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
    Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
    Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
    Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Naomi Watts – The Impossible

    Dark Horse: Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

    Best Supporting Actor

    Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
    Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
    Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
    Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

    Dark Horse: Alan Arkin – Argo

    Best Supporting Actress

    Amy Adams – The Master
    Ann Dowd – Compliance
    Sally Field – Lincoln
    Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
    Helen Hunt – The Sessions

    Dark Horse: Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

  • Jack

    PICTURE:
    1. Argo
    2. Lincoln
    3. Les Miserables
    4. Zero Dark Thirty
    5. Silver Linings Playbook
    6. Life of Pi
    7. Django Unchained
    8. The Master
    9. Amour
    10. Beasts of the Southern Wild

    DIRECTOR:
    1. Ben Affleck
    2. Steven Spielberg
    3. Kathryn Bigelow
    4. Tom Hooper
    5. Paul Thomas Anderson

    ACTOR:
    1. Daniel Day Lewis
    2. Hugh Jackman
    3. Bradley Cooper
    4. Joaquin Phoenix
    5. Denzel Washington

    ACTRESS:
    1. Jennifer Lawrence
    2. Jessica Chastain
    3. Naomi Watts
    4. Emmanuelle Riva
    5. Quvenzhane Wallis

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    1. Philip Seymour Hoffman
    2. Tommy Lee Jones
    3. Robert DeNiro
    4. Alan Arkin
    5. Leonardo DiCaprio

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    1. Anne Hathaway
    2. Sally Field
    3. Helen Huny
    4. Amy Adams
    5. Maggie Smith

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    1. The Master
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Django Unchained
    4. Moonrise Kingdom
    5. Amour

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    1. Argo
    2. Lincoln
    3. Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Life of Pi
    5. Beasts of the Southern Wild

    EDITING:
    1. Argo
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Lincoln
    4. Les Miserables
    5. Life of Pi

    CINEMATOGRAPHY:
    1. Life of Pi
    2. The Master
    3. Lincoln
    4. Les Miserables
    5. Skyfall

    PRODUCTION:
    1. Les Miserables
    2. Lincoln
    3. Anna Karenina
    4. Life of Pi
    5. Django Unchained

    COSTUME:
    1. Les Miserables
    2. Lincoln
    3. Anna Karenina
    4. Django Unchained
    5. Mirror Mirror

    SCORE:
    1. The Master
    2. Lincoln
    3. Life of Pi
    4. anna Karenina
    5. Argo

  • http://cinemaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

    Here's my Final Prediction, which is quite similar to Brad's in the main categories but I differ significantly in below the line categories especially Sound.

    http://www.cinemaconfessions.com/2013/01/oscar-predictions-final-jab-at.html

  • http://timeforafilm.com Alex Thomas

    I agree with almost all your predictions, Brad. I think The Imposter is one that will get nominated in the documentary category though. So close now!

  • http://cinemaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

    Brad, Don't you think Django should make it in both Sound categories considering Academy hugely favors westerns in that category. No Country for Old Men, There will be Blood got nominated. Even Inglorious Bastards [though not western] got nominated.

    Secondly you have completely shut out the big major action flicks like The Avengers and Dark Night Rises. Sound categories are the only way they get some recognition. In past films like Iron Man, TRON, Transformers all have got nominated. Hence one of either Avengers or Dark Knight Rises should find a place in Sound Editing.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      I have Avengers in for effects, but no, right now nothing for Dark Knight Rises. It could certainly get a nom or two and I wouldn't be surprised.

      • http://cinemmaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

        And why no Django in Sound categories ?

  • JN Films

    zero noms for TDKR? This is bulloni

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

      It wouldn't surprise me. I think, at best, TDKR has an outside shot at the two sound categories, visual effects, and maybe original score.

      • JN Films

        I loved TDKR and do think it should get a good amount of noms

  • JJ

    The one thing I don't get is how Riva potentially has a shot at being nominated (which is totally deserved), and yet Jean Louis Trintignant doesn't even get a mention as potentially getting a nom. I think they are equally worthy, or should at least be on the bubble.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

    Best Picture:

    1. Lincoln
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Argo
    4. Les Misérables
    5. Silver Linings Playbook
    6. Moonrise Kingdom
    7. Life of Pi
    8. Beasts of the Southern Wild

    Best Actor:

    1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    2. Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
    3. Denzel Washington (Flight)
    4. John Hawkes (The Sessions)
    5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

    Best Actress:

    1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
    3. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
    4. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
    5. Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

    Best Supporting Actor:

    1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
    2. Alan Arkin (Argo)
    3. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    4. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
    5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

    Best Supporting Actress:

    1. Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
    2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
    3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
    4. Amy Adams (The Master)
    5. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

    Best Director:

    1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
    2. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
    3. Ben Affleck (Argo)
    4. Tom Hooper (Les Misérables)
    5. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

    Best Original Screenplay:

    1. Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
    2. Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)
    3. Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
    4. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
    5. Michael Haneke (Amour)

    Best Adapted Screenplay:

    1. Paul Webb & Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
    2. Chris Terrio (Argo)
    3. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
    4. David Magee (Life of Pi)
    5. William Nicholson (Les Misérables)

    • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

      Interesting to see you've backed off your Picture/Director predictions for The Master. What made you predict otherwise?

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

        I suppose all the talk about it losing momentum got to me. Watch, now it'll probably get nominated...

        • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

          That's usually how it works, unfortunately.

  • SP1234

    Best Supporting Actress
    Amy Adams (The Master)
    Samantha Barks (Les Misérables)
    Sally Field (Lincoln)
    Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
    Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

    Best Supporting Actor
    Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
    Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

    Best Actress
    Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
    Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

    Best Actor
    Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    John Hawkes (The Sessions)
    Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

    Best Director
    Ben Affleck (Argo)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
    Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
    Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

    Best Picture
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Les Misérables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

    • Chris138

      You don't think Alan Arkin or De Niro will make the cut, eh? That sounds too good to be true.

  • Michael57483920

    I don't care what anyone replies to this comment but I'm predicting a major upset for "The Dark Knight Rises" in at least one major category.

    • Omar

      Honestly....I'm thinking the same thing, that The Dark Knight Rises might get a surprise Best Picture Nomination.

  • Jake17

    Best Picture
    1. Argo
    2. Lincoln
    3. Zero Dark Thirty
    4. Silver Linings Playbook
    5. Les Misérables
    6. Life Of Pi
    7. Django Unchained
    8. Moonrise Kingdom
    9. Beasts Of The Southern Wild
    10. The Master

    Best Director
    1. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    3. Ben Affleck, Argo
    4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
    5. Ang Lee, Life Of Pi

    Best Actor
    1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    2. Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
    3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Denzel Washington, Flight
    5. John Hawkes, The Sessions

    Best Actress
    1. Jennifer Lawrence
    2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    4. Marion Cotillard, Rust And Bone
    5. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts Of The Southern Wild

    Best Supporting Actor
    1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    2. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
    3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
    5. Matthew McConaughey

    Best Supporting Actress
    1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    2. Sally Field, Lincoln
    3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    4. Amy Adams, The Master
    5. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

    Best Original Screenplay
    1. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
    3. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
    4. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
    5. Rian Johnson, Looper

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    1. Tony Kushner and Paul Webb, Lincoln
    2. Chris Terrio, Argo
    3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts Of The Southern Wild
    5. Steven Chlbosky, The Perks Of Being A Wallflower

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    Here are my predictions, each category being listed in alphabetical order.

    Best Picture
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty
    (If there are 9 I predict The Master, and if there is a tenth slot, i'd pick Beasts of the Southern Wild)

    Best Director (same as DGA, although Russel seems like the biggest threat)
    Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
    Ben Affleck (Argo)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
    Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)

    Best Actor
    Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)
    Denzel Washington (Flight)
    Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

    Best Actress
    Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
    Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
    Quvenzhaine Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

    Best Supporting Actor
    Alan Arkin (Argo)
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

    Best Supporting Actress
    Amy Adams (The Master)
    Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
    Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Merigold Hotel)
    Sally Field (Lincoln

    Best Original Screenplay
    Amour
    Django Unchained
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Adapted Screenplay (I Threw 'Perks' in here just because yolo, right) (lol)
    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    The Perks of Being a Wallflower
    Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Animated Film
    Brave
    Frankenweenie
    ParaNorman
    Rise of the Guardians
    Wreck-It Ralph

    Best Cinematography
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Film Editing
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Original Score
    Anna Karenina
    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln

    I predicted the technical categories, but I won't post them here. Those always screw me over.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/navaneethks/ navaneethks

    I have a feeling Cloud Atlas is gonna get at least one nomination

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/RandallPMcMurphy/ Randall P McMurphy

      The editing in that was pretty amazing, apart from that nothing really impressed me

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    Just doing the major 6 categories.

    Best Picture:
    1. Lincoln
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Argo
    4. Les Miserables
    5. Silver Linings Playbook
    6. Life of Pi
    7. Moonrise Kingdom
    8. Beasts of the Southern Wild

    Best Director:
    1. Stephen Spielberg, Lincoln
    2. Ben Affleck, Argo
    3. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
    4. David O' Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
    5. Ang Lee, Life of Pi

    Best Actor:
    1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
    5. Denzel Washington, Flight

    Best Actress:
    1. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    3. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    4. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
    5. Quvenzhaine Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

    Best Supporting Actor:
    1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    2. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
    3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    4. Alan Arkin, Argo
    5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

    Best Supporting Actress:
    1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    2. Sally Field, Lincoln
    3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    4. Amy Adams, The Master
    5. Maggie Smith, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

  • http://www.criterion.com/my_criterion/27913-criterion10 Criterion10

    I only did the acting categories, along with Picture and Director, but here are my predictions as follows:

    Best Picture:
    Lincoln
    Argo
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Les Miserables
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Life of Pi
    Django Unchained
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Moonrise Kingdom

    Best Director:
    Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
    Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty
    Ben Affleck for Argo
    Tom Hooper for Les Miserables
    David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Actor:
    Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
    Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables
    Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
    Denzel Washington for Flight
    John Hawkes for The Sessions

    Best Actress:
    Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
    Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
    Naomi Watts for The Impossible
    Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone
    Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild

    Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
    Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
    Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
    Alan Arkin for Argo
    Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
    Javier Bardem for Skyfall

    Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
    Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
    Sally Field for Lincoln
    Helen Hunt for The Sessions
    Amy Adams for The Master
    Nicole Kidman for The Paperboy

    Very similar with Brad's for the most part, minus some few exceptions. Still unsure if Django, Moonrise, and Beasts will score Best Picture noms, but I have them there for now. Went with O. Russell over Lee, but after the DGA nom yesterday, something tells me I may be wrong. Joaquin Phoenix will not make it, sadly, although I really do hope to be surprised tomorrow morning. Lastly, I had a tough time deciding whether or not to include Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem, but decided to go with them due to their SAG noms.

    One question I have to throw out there: If The Master's ends up being snubbed pretty badly, why would the Academy still nominate PTA for screenplay? I can see something like Amour and Django getting nominated, even if they don't make strong showings elsewhere, but The Master still seems like the outlier to me.

  • Omar

    I have this gut feeling, tomorrow we are going to get a surprise here. Last year, we got a surprise (and shocking) nomination for Best Picture, when Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close got nominated for best picture. Awful movie, yet was nominated.
    The Blind Side in 2010 was also nominated for best picture, never saw that coming.
    What do you people think? Will we see a shocker this year? If there is a shocker nomination for Best Picture...it would be....The Dark Knight Rises. I dunno why, but something tells me this movie might sneak in at the last minute. Thus a movie like Moonrise Kingdom or Amour getting bounced.

    • Chris138

      It could be a surprise, but the one thing going for Extremely Loud and The Blind Side that TDKR doesn't is acting nods/wins.

    • SP1234

      Yeah, I'm expecting that or The Hobbit to sneak in for a surprise, in the event that Skyfall is snubbed.

  • Chris138

    BEST PICTURE:

    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Alternatives: The Master, Skyfall, Amour

    BEST DIRECTOR:

    Ben Affleck (Argo)
    Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
    Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

    Alternatives: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Michael Haneke (Amour)

    BEST ACTOR:

    Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
    Denzel Washington (Flight)

    Alternatives: John Hawkes (The Sessions), Richard Gere (Arbitrage), Jack Black (Bernie)

    BEST ACTRESS:

    Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
    Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

    Alternatives: Noami Watts (The Impossible), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

    Alan Arkin (Argo)
    Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
    Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

    Alternatives: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

    Sally Field (Lincoln)
    Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
    Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
    Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

    Alternatives: Amy Adams (The Master) Judi Dench (Skyfall), Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    The Perks of Being a Wallflower
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook

    Alternatives: Life of Pi, Les Miserables

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

    Amour
    Django Unchained
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Alternatives: Looper, Flight

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/G-Man/ G-Man

    I'll be raging if Arkin gets in over DiCaprio or Waltz in Django.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      Prepare to rage...

  • simon

    If Wallis misses an actress nomination, that is a tragedy to me. I thought she was simply incredible.

  • Oscar Smarty

    Best Picture

    1. Lincoln
    2. Argo
    3. Zero Dark Thirty
    4. Les Miserables
    5. Silver Linings Playbook
    6. Life of Pi
    7. Django Unchained
    8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    9. The Master
    10. Amour

    Best Director
    1. Steven Spielberg... Lincoln
    2. Kathyrn Bigelow... Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Ben Affleck... Argo
    4. Ang Lee... Life of Pi
    5. Tom Hopper... Les Miserables

    Best Actor
    1. Daniel Day Lewis... Lincoln
    2. Hugh Jackman... Les Miserables
    3. Denzel Washington... Flight
    4. Bradley Cooper... Silver Linings Playbook
    5. John Hawkes... The Sessions

    Best Actress
    1. Jennifer Lawerence... SIlver Linings Playbook
    2. Jessica Chastin... Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Naomi Watts... The Impossible
    4. Quvenzhané Wallis... Beasts of the Southern Wild
    5. Emmanuelle Riva... Amour

    Best Supporting Actor
    1. Tommy Lee Jones... Lincoln
    2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman... The Master
    3. Robert De Niro... Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Alan Arkin... Argo
    5. Leonardo DiCaprio... Django Unchained

    Best Supporting Actress
    1. Anne Hataway... Les Miserables
    2. Sally Field... Lincoln
    3. Helen Hunt... The Sessions
    4. Amy Adams... The Master
    5. Maggie Smith... The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

    Best Orignal Screenplay
    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Django Unchained
    3. The Master
    4. Moonrise Kingdom
    5. Looper

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    1. Lincoln
    2. Argo
    3. Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    5. The Perks of Being a Wallflower (yolo)

    Cinematography
    1. Skyfall
    2. Lincoln
    3. Life of Pi
    4. Les Miserables
    5. Anna Karenina

    Best Film Editing
    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Argo
    3. Les Miserables
    4. Lincoln (makes NO sense)
    5. Django Unchained.

    Best Original Score
    1. Lincoln
    2. Life of Pi
    3. Argo
    4. Anna Karenina
    5. Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Song
    1. Skyfall "Skyfall"
    2. Les Miserables "Suddenly"
    3. Life of Pi "Pi's Lullaby"
    4. Brave "Learn Me Right"
    5. Django Unchained "Ancora Qui"

    Best Costume Design
    1. Lincoln
    2. Les Miserables
    3. Anna Karenina
    4. Django Unchained
    5. Snow White & the Huntsmen

    Best Sound Mixing
    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Les Miserables
    3. Skyfall
    4. The Dark Knight Rises
    5. Django Unchained

    Best Sound Editing
    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Skyfall
    3. The Avengers
    4. Life of Pi
    5. The Dark Knight Rises

    Best Make-Up
    1. The Hobbit
    2. Les Miserables
    3. Lincoln

    Best Animated Film
    1. Wreck-it-Ralph
    2. Brave
    3. Frankenweenie
    4. The Rabbi's Cat
    5. Rise of the Guardians

    Best Visual Effects
    1. Life of Pi
    2. The Avengers
    3. The Dark Knight Rises
    4. Prometheus
    5. The Hobbit

    Best Art Direction
    1. Life of Pi
    2. Anna Karenina
    3. Lincoln
    4. Les Miserables
    5. The Hobbit

  • Oscar Smarty

    I WOULD LOVE IF LES MIS GOT 13!!! but i think 11 is more accurate.

  • Oscar Smarty

    i think 12 for Lincoln. 14 is WAY to much.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    My predictions failed to post..I know I'm long-winded, perhaps this time I was too long winded. Short version is that I agree with Brad in most categories, though I have a few differences...Django out of BP, Mirren over Riva for Actress, Smith over Kidman, The Hobbit over ZDT for art direction...maybe a few others. I am predicting Lincoln to tie the record of fourteen nominations, but it'll probably end up missing one sound category or makeup and end up with thirteen. Les Mis is also looking at twelve or thirteen, depending on makeup (it's more stable for sound), though I think Hooper and the screenplay are a little shaky and potentially prone to being upset.

  • Dale

    I wonder if this is the first time all the supporting actors and actresses (at least those you've predicted ) are either previous winners or previous nominees (the five supporting actors have all won before). Also, if Sally Field wins, she'll join an elite group of three-time winners, which presently includes Walter Brennan(!), Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep. The all-time champion winner, of course, is still Katharine Hepburn with four (her first and second wins were 34 years apart!).

  • https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BxTWgAV7uRaSQTBocGQ4Qzgtdm8 RagingTaxiDriver

    I'm most interested in Lead Actor to see if Gere pulls off a Oldman from last year (never getting a nomination but a highly regarded older actor), as well as; to see which Desplaat score gets chosen (haven't seen ZD30 yet so can't judge that, but he does have 3 contenders to his name), and the Cinematography category I'd really like to see if ZD30, Anna Karenina, Les Mis, or The Master get in. This is an incredibly tough year for cinematography (also, don't quite count out Pfister's work in TDKR as a dark horse)

    • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

      Desplat's best chance seems to rest with Argo, at least as far as the odds are concerned, but I thought Zero Dark Thirty was far better and far more affecting.

    • Chris138

      I think Gere has a shot as well. He could take the spot of Denzel or John Hawkes.

  • Newbourne

    I find it odd when you say you wouldn't be surprised in the least to see one or two other of your nominees not come true. These are your official predictions. If you are predicting Joaquin Phoenix to not get nominated, how can you go out and say you wouldn't be in the least surprised to see his name called? You obviously know it isn't outside the realm of possibility, but that doesn't change the fact you are sure enough that he isn't being nominated to predict it as such. And if you're at least that sure, you have to be at least a little surprised to see your PREDICTION be wrong.

    That's like betting on a team to win the Super Bowl and after they lose, you go around saying "I knew it could go either way, this didn't surprise me one bit". This contradictory statements are kinda silly.

  • Ellen

    As long as "The Master" isn't nominated for anything, I will be happy. Top of my list for worst film of 2012. I usually like Phoenix, but that hunched over, arms forward posture, was completely annoying and unexplainable. He was so unattractive, yet we were supposed to believe that women were falling all over him. In what universe does that happen? And someone please explain that near last scene where Hoffman is singing to him about taking a slow boat to China. Nevermind. If a movie has to be explained, it has failed to convey its message.

  • Todd Durnil

    BEST PICTURE (5-10 nominees / definite 6):

    Lincoln

    Les Miserables

    Zero Dark Thirty

    Silver Linings Playbook

    Argo

    Life of Pi

    (possible):

    Django Unchained

    Moonrise Kingdom

    The Master

    Beasts of the Southern Wild

    BEST DIRECTOR:

    Ben Affleck, ARGO

    Kathryn Bigelow, ZERO DARK THIRTY

    Steven Spielberg, LINCOLN

    Tom Hooper, LES MISERABLES

    Ang Lee, LIFE OF PI

    (possible)

    Quentin Tarantino, DJANGO UNCHAINED

    BEST ACTOR (5 nominated, 4 definite) tough category this year:

    Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN

    Hugh Jackman, LES MISERABLES

    Bradley Cooper, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

    Ben Affleck, ARGO

    (possibly one of these):

    Suraj Sharma, LIFE OF PI

    Joaquin Phoenix, THE MASTER

    Matt Damon, PROMISED LAND

    John Hawkes, THE SESSIONS

    BEST ACTRESS - weak category this year:

    Jessica Chastain, ZERO DARK THIRTY

    Jennifer Lawrence, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

    Emmanuelle Riva, AMOUR

    Quvenzhané Wallis, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

    Marion Cotillard, RUST AND BONE

    (possible):

    Naomi Watts, THE IMPOSSIBLE

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

    Leonardo DiCaprio, DJANGO UNCHAINED

    Eddie Redmayne, LES MISERABLES

    Alan Arkin, ARGO

    Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN

    Philip Seymour Hoffman, THE MASTER

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (tough category, but Anne will win):

    Anne Hathaway, LES MISEABLES

    Amy Adams, THE MASTER

    Sally Field, LINCOLN

    Helen Hunt, THE SESSIONS

    Maggie Smith, THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    For some reason, i just can't shake the feeling that The Master will get a good amount of nominations, including Best Picture. With my predictions, i have Moonrise Kingdom at #8 and The Master at #9. I've been tempted, multiple times, to move The Master into the 8th slot, and even the 7th, pushing back Life of Pi. Part of the reason is that I have it being nominated in 5 other categories. I can't shake the feeling that it will end up being the suprise of tomorrow, and even a possible Director Nom for PTA. I'm keeping it at #9 for now, but I won't be suprised if it get into Picture, or PTA pushes out Ang Lee or Tom Hooper for Director.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

      And I hope there are surprises tomorrow. Wouldn't it be cool if The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, or another film swept in and got a Best Picture nomination? Skyfall isn't completely out of the question, but I want some surprises.

  • http://cinemmaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

    By the way here are my No Guts No Glory Prediction.

    1. Marion Cotillard gets snubbed for Best Actress

    2. The Impossible makes it into Best Picture nominations

    3. Ang Lee gets snubbed for Best Director.

  • http://cinemmaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

    How many betting on Richard Parker getting Best Supporting Actor. lol.

    And imagine if he shows up at the oscar ceremony.

  • chriscarmichael

    My final predictions for what WILL be nominated tom.
    Best Picture (gonna be a 10 nominee yr. I do believe)
    Lincoln (13 total noms)
    Argo (4 total noms)
    Zero Dark Thirty (9 total noms)
    Silver Linings Playbook (4 total noms)
    Les Misérables (6 total noms)
    Life of Pi (9 total noms) -ugh and undeserving of every one IMO
    Django Unchained (11 total noms) - I can hope
    The Sessions (3 total noms)
    Beasts of the Southern Wild (4 total noms)
    Moonrise Kingdom (4 total noms)

    Best Director
    Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    Ben Affleck, Argo
    Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
    Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) - Probably not but i am hoping against all hope the Academy does the right thing for a change

    Best Actor
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
    Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
    John Hawkes (The Sessions)
    Jean-Louis Tritignant (Amour) - not sure on spelling of last name

    Best Actress
    Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
    Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern WIld)
    Keira Knightley (Anna Karinina)

    Best Supporting Actor
    Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    Robert De Niro (The Sessions)
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
    Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained)

    Best Supporting Actress
    Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
    Sally Field, Lincoln
    Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    Maggie Smith , Best Exotic Marigolg Hotel.
    Ann Dowd, Compliance

    Best Original Screenplay
    Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
    Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
    Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
    Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
    Michael Haneke, Amour

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Tony Kushner, Lincoln
    Chris Terrio, Argo
    David Magee, Life of Pi
    David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
    Lucy Alibar and BenhZeitlin, Beasts of the S. Wild

    Best Film Editing
    Argo
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Django Unchained
    Lincoln
    Life of Pi

    Best Cinematography
    Life of Pi
    Skyfall
    Lincoln
    Django Unchained
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Costume Design
    Les Misérables
    Anna Karenina
    Lincoln
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Django Unchained

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    Lincoln
    Les Misérables
    The Hobbit

    Best Original Score
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Cloud ATlas (Best score in many years. This can't not get a nomination or something is horrible broken)

    Best Production Design
    Les Misérables
    Lincoln
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Anna Karenina
    Life of Pi

    Best Animated Feature
    Frankenweenie (this will win)
    Wreck-it-Ralph
    ParaNorman
    The Painting
    Brave

    Best Foreign Language Film
    Amour
    The Intouchables
    War Witch
    Beyond the Hills
    No

    Best Documentary Feature
    How to Survive a Plague
    The Gatekeepers
    Searching for Sugarman
    Wes of Memphis
    The Invisible War

    Best Sound Mixing
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty
    The Dark Knight Rises
    The Hobbit
    Life of Pi

    Best Sound Editing
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty
    The Dark Knight Rises
    Django Unchained
    Lincoln

    Best Visual Effects
    Life of Pi
    Cloud Atlas
    The Hobbit
    The Dark Knight Rises
    The Avengers

    Best Original Song
    Skyfall, Skyfall
    Suddenly, Les Misérables
    Ancora Qui, Django Unchained
    Freedom, Django Unchained