Tomorrow morning at 5:30 AM PST the Academy will announce the 2013 Oscar nominations and if you've been with me over the course of the last five months or so, you know I've been tracking Oscar predictions the entire time and it's finally time to come to a final decision on the following 21 categories.
I have included a few thoughts on several of the categories as well as links to where you can find my full field of presumed contenders and how I've ranked them. You can also click here to visit my Oscar predictions homepage for a snapshot of all 21 categories in one place.
I have ranked each of the categories to where the nominee on the #1 line is my current presumed winner. Once the nominations are announced I will be adjusting all the categories accordingly and we will continue on toward Sunday, February 24 when the 2013 Oscars will be held.
For a complete look at the upcoming Awards Schedule you can click here as you'll want to be here with us tomorrow night as we live blog the Critics Choice Awards and this Sunday for our live blog of the 2013 Golden Globe Awards.
However, for now, let's have a look at my predictions for tomorrow's 2013 Oscar nominees and please weigh in with your thoughts in the comments below.
Best Picture
I considered taking both Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom out. I considered moving both Amour and Skyfall in. I couldn't figure out if The Master had fallen as hard as it seemed and now I'm seeing a couple of Oscar pundits giving The Intouchables a chance at a Best Picture nod.
So what did I change? Nothing.
I'm starting to feel this year's Best Picture race could just as easily end up with six nominations, with Django and Pi battling for that last slot, or ten, with some combination of my last two in and those other films mentioned above filling out slots 8-10. So I'm sticking with what feels best and hoping for just that.
- Lincoln
- Argo
- Les Miserables
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Django Unchained
- Life of Pi
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Moonrise Kingdom
You can browse my complete chart of Best Picture contenders and their rankings right here.
Best Actor
We all know Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win Best Actor. If you don't proclaim to "know" it, you're at the very least "pretty sure". Below him it seems a safe bet Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Denzel Washington (Flight) have nominations wrapped up. But what about John Hawkes (The Sessions)?
So little has been said about The Sessions after it premiered at Sundance, though everyone seems to recognize Hawkes' performance as one of the year's best. Then there's Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) who told Interview magazine he believed the Oscar race was "total, utter bullshit". Little has been heard from Phoenix since and the film itself has faded just as quickly.
As for now, I'm going with Hawkes, but a Phoenix nom wouldn't surprise me.
- Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
- Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
- Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Denzel Washington (Flight)
- John Hawkes (The Sessions)
You can browse my complete chart of Best Actor contenders and their rankings right here.
Best Actress
When it comes to locks you have Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) and Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty). There there's Naomi Watts (The Impossible) who has come on strong lately with Golden Globe, SAG and Critics Choice nominations. Watts seems like a sure thing... is she?
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) and Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) have seemed like the best bets for the final two slots for the longest time, but with Watts moving in that moves Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) out and Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) is looking to play spoiler with her Golden Globe and SAG nominations.
What is to be done?
As hard a decision it was to make, I had to move Wallis out of the top five. Beasts of the Southern Wild was ineligible for a SAG nomination and it went home without a Golden Globe nomination and I think Wallis is going to lose out as a result.
- Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
- Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
- Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
You can browse my complete chart of Best Actress contenders and their rankings right here.
Best Supporting Actor
Your confidence in Skyfall's approval with the Academy would seem to be a big factor in whether you go with Javier Bardem for that fifth slot or with Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained), but the competition among the Django cast members -- DiCaprio, Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson -- doesn't bode well for all three. As such, I can't help but go with Bardem in the end.
- Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
- Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
- Alan Arkin (Argo)
- Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
You can browse my complete chart of Best Supporting Actor contenders and their rankings right here.
Best Supporting Actress
Picking the fifth and final slot is a crap shoot and, if you look around the Internet, you'll see many others don't have much faith in Amy Adams (The Master) securing a nomination either.
I'm sticking with Adams even though The Master has clearly lost favor along the way and while I don't consider the BAFTA awards to be something that help predict the Oscars all that well, the absence of Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) from their list of nominees makes it easier to shift Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) into that final fifth slot, even if my confidence in the decision isn't running at 100%... or even 75% for that matter, but these decisions must be made and it would seem I have the confidence of the readers at the same time.
Yet, Ann Dowd (Compliance), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) and Judi Dench (Skyfall) serve as very possible substitutes.
- Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
- Sally Field (Lincoln)
- Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
- Amy Adams (The Master)
- Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
You can browse my complete chart of Best Supporting Actress contenders and their rankings right here.
'All is Lost' (2013) Movie Review - Cannes Film Festival
'Only God Forgives' (2013) Movie Review - Cannes Film Festival
'Before Midnight' Location Map - Celine and Jesse Vacation in Greece
'We're the Millers' Red Band Trailer and Poster
Vince Vaughn is the Baby Daddy in 'Delivery Man' Teaser Trailer
First Clip from Cannes Hit 'All is Lost'
Trailer for Joseph Gordon-Levitt's 'Don Jon'
I'm 41 and I've Loved Only You
Weinstein Dates 'Butler' for August 16 Release
First 'August: Osage County' Trailer with Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts
Oscar Rule Changes Mean Nothing Until There is Full Transparency
2014 Golden Globe Dates Set and Seth MacFarlane Back for 2014 Oscars?
Is 'Oblivion' Our First Major 2014 Oscar Sound Contender?
I really hope The Master and Beasts are nominated for best picture. I really really do.
I agree, but I am doubtful. Beasts hopefully will sneak in, but the Master is fading. Such a shame. :-/
So glad Beasts got so many nominations! Cheered out loud when they said Quvenzhan’e Wallis! And Benh Zeitlin! Daaamn :D
And Amour and Silver Linings Playbook garnered a lot of unexpected notice :D
Biggest ‘shocks’ for me is John Hawkes snub, Ben Affleck directing snub, Kathryn Bigelow not getting nominated (I’m fine with this, great movie, but it was sooooo expected she would be nominated, and possibly win), and Christoph Waltz ripping out the nod from Leo’s hands! Haha! I am fine with it, just a little shocked he was the one from Django to get it :P And Matt McConaughey didn’t get nominated, which I am perfectly fine with, I thought he was excellent in Killer Joe, but overrated in Magic Mike.
The one performance no one ever talked about, but I would have nominated without hesitation, is Hugo Weaving in Last Ride. You probably don’t know about it :P
Life of Pi for Cnematography when the movie was filmed behind a green screen? Over Django Unchained?! The Master?! Just no.
You have an interesting username considering Avatar won for the same thing followed by Hugo two years later. :)
Well played, Brad. Well played.
Touché.
Brad's right, but its an interesting point though. How can movies done almost completely with a green screen win over movies that do put effort into the photography?
I really think The Master's cinematography and production design were flawless and if the Academy voters don't see that, then they are just plain silly.
Eh, they're plain silly anyways.
I'm only doing the big 6 categories here but I'm gonna go with this list - all listed alphabetically not in order of preference.
Best Picture
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
The Sessions
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper
John Hawkes
Hugh Jackman
Daniel Day Lewis
Denzel Washington
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin
Robert DeNiro
Leonardo DiCaprio
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Tommy Lee Jones
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain
Marion Cotillard
Jennifer Lawrence
Emmanuelle Riva
Naomi Watts
Best Supporting Actress
Judi Dench (Skyfall)
Sally Field
Anne Hathaway
Helen Hunt
Nicole Kidman
Not that I would actually support some of these as being worth nominating, but these are the calls I'm making. Though I almost added Jean Louis Tringigant in Best Actor for 'Amour' because each year lately there is almost always at least one nomination that seems to spring almost from nowhere at the last minute and I'm sure will be one tomorrow as well.
Balls - I forgot to include Django in the Best Picture list. Also, I know Playbook probably WILL get nominated over The Sessions but I figured there's room amongst the 'just there for the party' noms to throw it in there.
Am I the only one who feels that Tarantino will replace Lee
I think Tarantino's in over Hooper, Lee seems pretty safe to me.
I feel Russel replaces Hooper (the BAFTA snub didn't help him) and QT might replace Lee, but I'm keeping Lee on my predictions.
I don't think Hooper will make the final cut but I'm not 100% sure who will take his place. My money's on Tarantino or Russell
Also I still believe Phoenix will beat Hawkes and I believe Skyfall and The Master will sneak into the best picture spot
Brad, do you really think Lincoln can muster 14 nominations as you have predicted? I love the movie but I'm not so sure..
Yeah, though I may be wrong on one of the sound noms. Otherwise I think so.
Here are my predictions for the big six categories. You can find the rest of my predictions linked through my Twitter account here: https://twitter.com/leiendeckera
Best Picture
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Dark Horses: Amour, Moonrise Kingdom
Best Director
Ben Affleck – Argo
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Dark Horses: Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master, Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Denzel Washington – Flight
Dark Horse: John Hawkes – The Sessions
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Dark Horse: Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Best Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Dark Horse: Alan Arkin – Argo
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – The Master
Ann Dowd – Compliance
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Dark Horse: Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
PICTURE:
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Les Miserables
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. Django Unchained
8. The Master
9. Amour
10. Beasts of the Southern Wild
DIRECTOR:
1. Ben Affleck
2. Steven Spielberg
3. Kathryn Bigelow
4. Tom Hooper
5. Paul Thomas Anderson
ACTOR:
1. Daniel Day Lewis
2. Hugh Jackman
3. Bradley Cooper
4. Joaquin Phoenix
5. Denzel Washington
ACTRESS:
1. Jennifer Lawrence
2. Jessica Chastain
3. Naomi Watts
4. Emmanuelle Riva
5. Quvenzhane Wallis
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman
2. Tommy Lee Jones
3. Robert DeNiro
4. Alan Arkin
5. Leonardo DiCaprio
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Anne Hathaway
2. Sally Field
3. Helen Huny
4. Amy Adams
5. Maggie Smith
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. The Master
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Django Unchained
4. Moonrise Kingdom
5. Amour
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
EDITING:
1. Argo
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Lincoln
4. Les Miserables
5. Life of Pi
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
1. Life of Pi
2. The Master
3. Lincoln
4. Les Miserables
5. Skyfall
PRODUCTION:
1. Les Miserables
2. Lincoln
3. Anna Karenina
4. Life of Pi
5. Django Unchained
COSTUME:
1. Les Miserables
2. Lincoln
3. Anna Karenina
4. Django Unchained
5. Mirror Mirror
SCORE:
1. The Master
2. Lincoln
3. Life of Pi
4. anna Karenina
5. Argo
Here's my Final Prediction, which is quite similar to Brad's in the main categories but I differ significantly in below the line categories especially Sound.
http://www.cinemaconfessions.com/2013/01/oscar-predictions-final-jab-at.html
I agree with almost all your predictions, Brad. I think The Imposter is one that will get nominated in the documentary category though. So close now!
Brad, Don't you think Django should make it in both Sound categories considering Academy hugely favors westerns in that category. No Country for Old Men, There will be Blood got nominated. Even Inglorious Bastards [though not western] got nominated.
Secondly you have completely shut out the big major action flicks like The Avengers and Dark Night Rises. Sound categories are the only way they get some recognition. In past films like Iron Man, TRON, Transformers all have got nominated. Hence one of either Avengers or Dark Knight Rises should find a place in Sound Editing.
I have Avengers in for effects, but no, right now nothing for Dark Knight Rises. It could certainly get a nom or two and I wouldn't be surprised.
And why no Django in Sound categories ?
zero noms for TDKR? This is bulloni
It wouldn't surprise me. I think, at best, TDKR has an outside shot at the two sound categories, visual effects, and maybe original score.
I loved TDKR and do think it should get a good amount of noms
The one thing I don't get is how Riva potentially has a shot at being nominated (which is totally deserved), and yet Jean Louis Trintignant doesn't even get a mention as potentially getting a nom. I think they are equally worthy, or should at least be on the bubble.
Best Picture:
1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Argo
4. Les Misérables
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Moonrise Kingdom
7. Life of Pi
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Actor:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
2. Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
3. Denzel Washington (Flight)
4. John Hawkes (The Sessions)
5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Best Actress:
1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
4. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
5. Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
2. Alan Arkin (Argo)
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
4. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
4. Amy Adams (The Master)
5. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
Best Director:
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
2. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
3. Ben Affleck (Argo)
4. Tom Hooper (Les Misérables)
5. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Best Original Screenplay:
1. Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
2. Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
4. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
5. Michael Haneke (Amour)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Paul Webb & Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
2. Chris Terrio (Argo)
3. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
4. David Magee (Life of Pi)
5. William Nicholson (Les Misérables)
Interesting to see you've backed off your Picture/Director predictions for The Master. What made you predict otherwise?
I suppose all the talk about it losing momentum got to me. Watch, now it'll probably get nominated...
That's usually how it works, unfortunately.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Master)
Samantha Barks (Les Misérables)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Best Director
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Best Picture
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
You don't think Alan Arkin or De Niro will make the cut, eh? That sounds too good to be true.
I don't care what anyone replies to this comment but I'm predicting a major upset for "The Dark Knight Rises" in at least one major category.
Honestly....I'm thinking the same thing, that The Dark Knight Rises might get a surprise Best Picture Nomination.
Best Picture
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Les Misérables
6. Life Of Pi
7. Django Unchained
8. Moonrise Kingdom
9. Beasts Of The Southern Wild
10. The Master
Best Director
1. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
2. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
3. Ben Affleck, Argo
4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Ang Lee, Life Of Pi
Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
4. Denzel Washington, Flight
5. John Hawkes, The Sessions
Best Actress
1. Jennifer Lawrence
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
3. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust And Bone
5. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Best Supporting Actor
1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
2. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
5. Matthew McConaughey
Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
4. Amy Adams, The Master
5. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Best Original Screenplay
1. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
2. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
4. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
5. Rian Johnson, Looper
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Tony Kushner and Paul Webb, Lincoln
2. Chris Terrio, Argo
3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
4. Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts Of The Southern Wild
5. Steven Chlbosky, The Perks Of Being A Wallflower
Here are my predictions, each category being listed in alphabetical order.
Best Picture
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
(If there are 9 I predict The Master, and if there is a tenth slot, i'd pick Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Best Director (same as DGA, although Russel seems like the biggest threat)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Quvenzhaine Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Master)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Merigold Hotel)
Sally Field (Lincoln
Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay (I Threw 'Perks' in here just because yolo, right) (lol)
Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Silver Linings Playbook
Best Animated Film
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph
Best Cinematography
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Film Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
I predicted the technical categories, but I won't post them here. Those always screw me over.
I have a feeling Cloud Atlas is gonna get at least one nomination
The editing in that was pretty amazing, apart from that nothing really impressed me
Just doing the major 6 categories.
Best Picture:
1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Argo
4. Les Miserables
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. Moonrise Kingdom
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Director:
1. Stephen Spielberg, Lincoln
2. Ben Affleck, Argo
3. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
4. David O' Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Best Actor:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
4. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
5. Denzel Washington, Flight
Best Actress:
1. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
3. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
5. Quvenzhaine Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
2. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
4. Amy Adams, The Master
5. Maggie Smith, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
I only did the acting categories, along with Picture and Director, but here are my predictions as follows:
Best Picture:
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Best Director:
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck for Argo
Tom Hooper for Les Miserables
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington for Flight
John Hawkes for The Sessions
Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts for The Impossible
Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin for Argo
Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Javier Bardem for Skyfall
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Sally Field for Lincoln
Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Amy Adams for The Master
Nicole Kidman for The Paperboy
Very similar with Brad's for the most part, minus some few exceptions. Still unsure if Django, Moonrise, and Beasts will score Best Picture noms, but I have them there for now. Went with O. Russell over Lee, but after the DGA nom yesterday, something tells me I may be wrong. Joaquin Phoenix will not make it, sadly, although I really do hope to be surprised tomorrow morning. Lastly, I had a tough time deciding whether or not to include Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem, but decided to go with them due to their SAG noms.
One question I have to throw out there: If The Master's ends up being snubbed pretty badly, why would the Academy still nominate PTA for screenplay? I can see something like Amour and Django getting nominated, even if they don't make strong showings elsewhere, but The Master still seems like the outlier to me.
I have this gut feeling, tomorrow we are going to get a surprise here. Last year, we got a surprise (and shocking) nomination for Best Picture, when Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close got nominated for best picture. Awful movie, yet was nominated.
The Blind Side in 2010 was also nominated for best picture, never saw that coming.
What do you people think? Will we see a shocker this year? If there is a shocker nomination for Best Picture...it would be....The Dark Knight Rises. I dunno why, but something tells me this movie might sneak in at the last minute. Thus a movie like Moonrise Kingdom or Amour getting bounced.
It could be a surprise, but the one thing going for Extremely Loud and The Blind Side that TDKR doesn't is acting nods/wins.
Yeah, I'm expecting that or The Hobbit to sneak in for a surprise, in the event that Skyfall is snubbed.
BEST PICTURE:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Alternatives: The Master, Skyfall, Amour
BEST DIRECTOR:
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Alternatives: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Michael Haneke (Amour)
BEST ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Alternatives: John Hawkes (The Sessions), Richard Gere (Arbitrage), Jack Black (Bernie)
BEST ACTRESS:
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Alternatives: Noami Watts (The Impossible), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Alternatives: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Alternatives: Amy Adams (The Master) Judi Dench (Skyfall), Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Alternatives: Life of Pi, Les Miserables
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Alternatives: Looper, Flight
I'll be raging if Arkin gets in over DiCaprio or Waltz in Django.
Prepare to rage...
If Wallis misses an actress nomination, that is a tragedy to me. I thought she was simply incredible.
Best Picture
1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Les Miserables
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. Django Unchained
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. The Master
10. Amour
Best Director
1. Steven Spielberg... Lincoln
2. Kathyrn Bigelow... Zero Dark Thirty
3. Ben Affleck... Argo
4. Ang Lee... Life of Pi
5. Tom Hopper... Les Miserables
Best Actor
1. Daniel Day Lewis... Lincoln
2. Hugh Jackman... Les Miserables
3. Denzel Washington... Flight
4. Bradley Cooper... Silver Linings Playbook
5. John Hawkes... The Sessions
Best Actress
1. Jennifer Lawerence... SIlver Linings Playbook
2. Jessica Chastin... Zero Dark Thirty
3. Naomi Watts... The Impossible
4. Quvenzhané Wallis... Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Emmanuelle Riva... Amour
Best Supporting Actor
1. Tommy Lee Jones... Lincoln
2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman... The Master
3. Robert De Niro... Silver Linings Playbook
4. Alan Arkin... Argo
5. Leonardo DiCaprio... Django Unchained
Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hataway... Les Miserables
2. Sally Field... Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt... The Sessions
4. Amy Adams... The Master
5. Maggie Smith... The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Best Orignal Screenplay
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Django Unchained
3. The Master
4. Moonrise Kingdom
5. Looper
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. The Perks of Being a Wallflower (yolo)
Cinematography
1. Skyfall
2. Lincoln
3. Life of Pi
4. Les Miserables
5. Anna Karenina
Best Film Editing
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Argo
3. Les Miserables
4. Lincoln (makes NO sense)
5. Django Unchained.
Best Original Score
1. Lincoln
2. Life of Pi
3. Argo
4. Anna Karenina
5. Zero Dark Thirty
Best Song
1. Skyfall "Skyfall"
2. Les Miserables "Suddenly"
3. Life of Pi "Pi's Lullaby"
4. Brave "Learn Me Right"
5. Django Unchained "Ancora Qui"
Best Costume Design
1. Lincoln
2. Les Miserables
3. Anna Karenina
4. Django Unchained
5. Snow White & the Huntsmen
Best Sound Mixing
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Les Miserables
3. Skyfall
4. The Dark Knight Rises
5. Django Unchained
Best Sound Editing
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Skyfall
3. The Avengers
4. Life of Pi
5. The Dark Knight Rises
Best Make-Up
1. The Hobbit
2. Les Miserables
3. Lincoln
Best Animated Film
1. Wreck-it-Ralph
2. Brave
3. Frankenweenie
4. The Rabbi's Cat
5. Rise of the Guardians
Best Visual Effects
1. Life of Pi
2. The Avengers
3. The Dark Knight Rises
4. Prometheus
5. The Hobbit
Best Art Direction
1. Life of Pi
2. Anna Karenina
3. Lincoln
4. Les Miserables
5. The Hobbit
I WOULD LOVE IF LES MIS GOT 13!!! but i think 11 is more accurate.
i think 12 for Lincoln. 14 is WAY to much.
My predictions failed to post..I know I'm long-winded, perhaps this time I was too long winded. Short version is that I agree with Brad in most categories, though I have a few differences...Django out of BP, Mirren over Riva for Actress, Smith over Kidman, The Hobbit over ZDT for art direction...maybe a few others. I am predicting Lincoln to tie the record of fourteen nominations, but it'll probably end up missing one sound category or makeup and end up with thirteen. Les Mis is also looking at twelve or thirteen, depending on makeup (it's more stable for sound), though I think Hooper and the screenplay are a little shaky and potentially prone to being upset.
I wonder if this is the first time all the supporting actors and actresses (at least those you've predicted ) are either previous winners or previous nominees (the five supporting actors have all won before). Also, if Sally Field wins, she'll join an elite group of three-time winners, which presently includes Walter Brennan(!), Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep. The all-time champion winner, of course, is still Katharine Hepburn with four (her first and second wins were 34 years apart!).
I'm most interested in Lead Actor to see if Gere pulls off a Oldman from last year (never getting a nomination but a highly regarded older actor), as well as; to see which Desplaat score gets chosen (haven't seen ZD30 yet so can't judge that, but he does have 3 contenders to his name), and the Cinematography category I'd really like to see if ZD30, Anna Karenina, Les Mis, or The Master get in. This is an incredibly tough year for cinematography (also, don't quite count out Pfister's work in TDKR as a dark horse)
Desplat's best chance seems to rest with Argo, at least as far as the odds are concerned, but I thought Zero Dark Thirty was far better and far more affecting.
I think Gere has a shot as well. He could take the spot of Denzel or John Hawkes.
I find it odd when you say you wouldn't be surprised in the least to see one or two other of your nominees not come true. These are your official predictions. If you are predicting Joaquin Phoenix to not get nominated, how can you go out and say you wouldn't be in the least surprised to see his name called? You obviously know it isn't outside the realm of possibility, but that doesn't change the fact you are sure enough that he isn't being nominated to predict it as such. And if you're at least that sure, you have to be at least a little surprised to see your PREDICTION be wrong.
That's like betting on a team to win the Super Bowl and after they lose, you go around saying "I knew it could go either way, this didn't surprise me one bit". This contradictory statements are kinda silly.
As long as "The Master" isn't nominated for anything, I will be happy. Top of my list for worst film of 2012. I usually like Phoenix, but that hunched over, arms forward posture, was completely annoying and unexplainable. He was so unattractive, yet we were supposed to believe that women were falling all over him. In what universe does that happen? And someone please explain that near last scene where Hoffman is singing to him about taking a slow boat to China. Nevermind. If a movie has to be explained, it has failed to convey its message.
BEST PICTURE (5-10 nominees / definite 6):
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Life of Pi
(possible):
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
BEST DIRECTOR:
Ben Affleck, ARGO
Kathryn Bigelow, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Steven Spielberg, LINCOLN
Tom Hooper, LES MISERABLES
Ang Lee, LIFE OF PI
(possible)
Quentin Tarantino, DJANGO UNCHAINED
BEST ACTOR (5 nominated, 4 definite) tough category this year:
Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN
Hugh Jackman, LES MISERABLES
Bradley Cooper, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Ben Affleck, ARGO
(possibly one of these):
Suraj Sharma, LIFE OF PI
Joaquin Phoenix, THE MASTER
Matt Damon, PROMISED LAND
John Hawkes, THE SESSIONS
BEST ACTRESS - weak category this year:
Jessica Chastain, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Jennifer Lawrence, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Emmanuelle Riva, AMOUR
Quvenzhané Wallis, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Marion Cotillard, RUST AND BONE
(possible):
Naomi Watts, THE IMPOSSIBLE
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio, DJANGO UNCHAINED
Eddie Redmayne, LES MISERABLES
Alan Arkin, ARGO
Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN
Philip Seymour Hoffman, THE MASTER
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (tough category, but Anne will win):
Anne Hathaway, LES MISEABLES
Amy Adams, THE MASTER
Sally Field, LINCOLN
Helen Hunt, THE SESSIONS
Maggie Smith, THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
For some reason, i just can't shake the feeling that The Master will get a good amount of nominations, including Best Picture. With my predictions, i have Moonrise Kingdom at #8 and The Master at #9. I've been tempted, multiple times, to move The Master into the 8th slot, and even the 7th, pushing back Life of Pi. Part of the reason is that I have it being nominated in 5 other categories. I can't shake the feeling that it will end up being the suprise of tomorrow, and even a possible Director Nom for PTA. I'm keeping it at #9 for now, but I won't be suprised if it get into Picture, or PTA pushes out Ang Lee or Tom Hooper for Director.
And I hope there are surprises tomorrow. Wouldn't it be cool if The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, or another film swept in and got a Best Picture nomination? Skyfall isn't completely out of the question, but I want some surprises.
By the way here are my No Guts No Glory Prediction.
1. Marion Cotillard gets snubbed for Best Actress
2. The Impossible makes it into Best Picture nominations
3. Ang Lee gets snubbed for Best Director.
How many betting on Richard Parker getting Best Supporting Actor. lol.
And imagine if he shows up at the oscar ceremony.
My final predictions for what WILL be nominated tom.
Best Picture (gonna be a 10 nominee yr. I do believe)
Lincoln (13 total noms)
Argo (4 total noms)
Zero Dark Thirty (9 total noms)
Silver Linings Playbook (4 total noms)
Les Misérables (6 total noms)
Life of Pi (9 total noms) -ugh and undeserving of every one IMO
Django Unchained (11 total noms) - I can hope
The Sessions (3 total noms)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (4 total noms)
Moonrise Kingdom (4 total noms)
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) - Probably not but i am hoping against all hope the Academy does the right thing for a change
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Jean-Louis Tritignant (Amour) - not sure on spelling of last name
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern WIld)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karinina)
Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert De Niro (The Sessions)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained)
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith , Best Exotic Marigolg Hotel.
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Michael Haneke, Amour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Chris Terrio, Argo
David Magee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Lucy Alibar and BenhZeitlin, Beasts of the S. Wild
Best Film Editing
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Best Cinematography
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Lincoln
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Costume Design
Les Misérables
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Lincoln
Les Misérables
The Hobbit
Best Original Score
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Cloud ATlas (Best score in many years. This can't not get a nomination or something is horrible broken)
Best Production Design
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi
Best Animated Feature
Frankenweenie (this will win)
Wreck-it-Ralph
ParaNorman
The Painting
Brave
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
The Intouchables
War Witch
Beyond the Hills
No
Best Documentary Feature
How to Survive a Plague
The Gatekeepers
Searching for Sugarman
Wes of Memphis
The Invisible War
Best Sound Mixing
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Best Sound Editing
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Best Visual Effects
Life of Pi
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Best Original Song
Skyfall, Skyfall
Suddenly, Les Misérables
Ancora Qui, Django Unchained
Freedom, Django Unchained