Following the screening of Lincoln at the New York Film Festival, I updated Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Director and Adapted Screenplay and now it's time to take a look at the female performances for the first time since revealing my initial batch of predictions.
In both categories my #1 has remained the same, but there are three new names in total to the respective top fives in each category. I've had to bounce out a name I would have preferred to see in and move in a name I would have preferred to see out. Such is the nature of predicting, as I remind you, this has nothing to do with personal opinion, but simply a matter of trying to figure out how the Academy will vote.
Let's take a look...
Best Actress
We'll begin with Best Actress where things have been shaken up the most. Unfortunately, Smashed arrived in theaters over the weekend and while you could find interviews with star Mary Elizabeth Winstead all over the Internet, the film doesn't feel as if it has made much of an impact and I fear her chances have slipped dramatically. I originally placed her as high as #2, but with the majority of the attention remaining on the likely suspects I feel as if Winstead is just going to have to wait a little longer.
The Best Actress field, however, isn't exactly packed. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) and Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) are guaranteed at this point. Yes... guaranteed.
Along with those two, I'm now, more or less, convinced both Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) and Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) can rest easy as can their fans... Looking at the field I have a hard time the Academy can keep out what are clearly two of the best female performances of the year. They may be able to find a way not to give them the big prize, but looking over the field of nine actresses I don't see how they can be deprived of a nomination.
The fifth slot is a tricky one, I've moved Naomi Watts (The Impossible) into the top five, though I'm not all that confident in it. I've seen the film and Watts spends the majority of time in and out of consciousness... that is, when she's not screaming in pain at the top of her lungs for about 15 straight minutes. It should be noted, however, that the film recorded the biggest four-day opening ever in Spain, hauling in Euros 10.3 million ($13.3 million).
Watts' strongest competition at this point, I imagine is Helen Mirren in Hitchcock (though no one has seen it yet) and Keira Knightley in Anna Karenina, a film I feel slipping more and more each day and it hasn't even hit theaters yet.
I have included my current top five directly below and you can click here to see where they ranked previously compared to where they rank now as well as see my four other contenders. I did drop both Viola Davis and Maggie Gyllenhaal from the list as Won't Back Down has already been forgotten, despite the fact both actresses gave knock-out performances in an otherwise terrible film.
- Jennifer Lawrence, (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Quvenzhané Wallis, (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
- Marion Cotillard, (Rust and Bone)
- Emmanuelle Riva, (Amour)
- Naomi Watts, (The Impossible)
Best Supporting Actress
The field in the Best Supporting Actress category isn't much bigger than Best Actress, but the competition is much higher. At this point I have kept Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) at the top of the chart, but the names behind her are quite strong.
I have reversed the positions of Helen Hunt (The Sessions) and Amy Adams (The Master) as The Sessions will get a slight edge as it hits limited theaters this weekend and so much of the attention for The Master has been aimed at the men, though Adams can hopefully break through that chatter as the season wears on.
I've kept Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) in my top five for now and have moved Sally Field (Lincoln) in. Reviews of Lincoln didn't exactly dote on Field, but they were good enough to give her a large enough edge to place her over contenders whose films have yet to be seen by anyone.
One name on the rise is Jessica Chastain, who had everyone talking after the premiere of the theatrical trailer for Zero Dark Thirty and I have moved Samantha Barks down a bit as she is more-or-less an unknown in the feature film realm and Les Mis has yet to be seen.
I have included my top five predictions in this category below and you can check out the full field of twelve right here as well as see how they changed in ranking.
- Anne Hathaway, (Les Miserables)
- Helen Hunt, (The Sessions)
- Amy Adams, (The Master)
- Jacki Weaver, (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Sally Field, (Lincoln)
That does it for this update, for all of my current Oscar predictions click here.
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I really enjoy reading your predictions dude,
but what would make it even cooler just so we can get an idea of what really are the best performances, is if you change your system to a "who will be nominated, who should be nominated" so we could see who you like the best
it might be too difficult and time-consuming,
but still, I think it would be cool
I agree and would rather see personal choices in who deserves these noms rather than predictions. The Ropeofsilicon awards gives us you personals favorites, but it would be nice Brad if you did something like that for nominations as well
was a great thing to move Watts, I guess she will be moved soon to the 1st place
Sorry, no chance, she'll be lucky to get that nom.
you are not the academy and Cotillard was not awarded in Cannes, you and a lot of critics are blowing up Lawrence, she is not a lead character and looks overacted, a lot of people thinks that is ridiculous to nominate a kid in a lead list, I guess you will have to move more people
Brad, camila is nothing but a troll (an annoying one). She obviously hates J-Law & Keira Knightley if you don't remember. Everytime someone mentions Lawrence, she immediately replies & bashes Lawrence without any specifics on why other than saying "Oh because we LOVE her in The Hunger Games or she's so hot" - something like that. She just wants someone other than Lawrence on top.
I have ignored her continuously nonsense comments or bashing on actors but i've just had enough with her already. It was just a matter of time before I snapped and today was the day.
I have not seen "The hunger games" my good that is for teenagers and I do not think Lawrence is hot, anyone can be hot with a face that looks as a golden globe...I was talking about the quality and about the buzz, every year happens the same, this happened with Portman 2 years ago and with Witherspoon in Walk the line, I think this buzz is a very bad influence, with internet that influence is very powerful, an award can star with a rumor and who use the buzz to blow up someone knows that.
What a depressing and uninspired line up. And I thought last year's awards were bad! Never underestimate the Academy...
LOL What annoyed me personally about last year is that there was definitely the opportunity for some good choices, yet the Academy screwed it up as always.
In that case what would be an interesting one ? :)
[PS: Not that I think this line up is interesting but atleast it has respectable mix of young and old]
I'd love to see Rachel Wiesz get some love for The Deep Blue Sea. But so far it's been a pretty shitty year for good female roles.
Every year including this year, there are good female performances. The only difference being we don't have enough "Oscar" female roles.
I'm with you on that. I know many night disagree, it probably won't add any suspense to it but I think the Academy is going to have to add more slots to the Actor & Actress categories maybe Directors too. Kind of like what they are doing with BP, it doesn't have to be 10. Just 7,8 or whatever. There have been many years where I found actresses/actors have been snubbed and I have gotten mad about it.
Last year for example, I thought Kristen Wiig for Bridesmaids, Charlize Theron for Young Adult & Kirsten Dunst for Melancholia deserved Oscar noms. Actress the Academy keeps snubbing for some godawful reason, Sally Hawkins for both Happy-Go-Lucky (would have won for this IMO if she got the nod) & Made In Dagenham. Smh.
I'm still trying wrap this up on my mind on Chastain on whether she's a lead or supporting in ZDT. She seems like the Lead in ZDT judging from the trailers. I currently have her in the 4th (had her my number #6) slot behind Helen Hunt in supporting as I updated my supporting list but still on Chastain, I don't know right now. I'll post my updated Lead & Supporting Actress lineup in a few minutes.
Updated:
Lead Actress:
1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook
2. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
3. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
4. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
5. Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)
6. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
7. Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
8. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
9. Kristen Wiig (Imogene) - I know but it's just to round out the 9 plus she was my number 6 last year with Bridesmaids
Supporting:
1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
2. Amy Adams (The Master)
3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
4. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
5. Sally Field (Lincoln)
6. Maggie Smith (Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
7. Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
8. Scarlett Johansson (Hitchcock)
9. Emily Blunt (Looper)
On the supporting side, since The Master seems to be losing steam rather fast it's very possibly not going to be Adams' year. She'll get one eventually, but I suspect not for The Master unless and until actual conversion wins start to come through. Hathaway could simply sneak in and steal it away if Les Miserables goes big.
I don't think Watts will get into Best Actress unless The Impossible breaks out of the Christmas glut. While Lawrence and Wallis do seem locks the other three slots seem to me to be a bit of a crapshoot just now. But again, once the awards nominations circuit begins that will firm up.
Weinstein knows exactly what he's doing with The Master. That's why he moved it from October so it wouldn't be overshadowed by Argo, then Lincoln, etc in November. The DVD and screener will probably be released in January just in time for the deadline. Plus with the new deadline, it'll pick up steam at the critic awards and such as.
I don't think it'll win of course, but I see it getting the 5 percent vote and a 5-6 slot in a year of up to 10. I think PTA will get in for Director and screenplay as well. By far this is probably one of Weinstein's finest line-ups in years with Playbook, Master, Django, as well as The Intouchables and Quartet.
Oh, I do think it will be nominated in most key categories still, but unless it picks up steam again I'm not as sure it will be in play for many wins outside of Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor.
Personally, I don't think it'll win anything besides score. i think a Picture/director split will happen between Les Miserables and either Affleck or PTA.
I see it winning Director, Cinematography & Original Screenplay. Phoenix/Lewis is still up for grabs for me even though I have Phoenix on top. Same with Hoffman/DiCaprio.
At this point, I really want Amy to win but seems unlikely unless if Anne disappoints. Can't count out Hunt at all. Same with Chastain if she is indeed Supporting here and gives at least a great enough perfomance. 4 great actress btw but all performances aren't memorable just great. I shouldn't say ALL since I haven't seen Chastain, Hunt & Hathaway yet. Adams was terrific IMO, one of her best performances but it wasn't one of those breathtaking memorable performances.
"Watts spends the majority of time in and out of consciousness... that is, when she's not screaming in pain at the top of her lungs for about 15 straight minutes..."
This is ridiculous...how is supposed to be someone who was swept out to sea by a tsunami HA HA HA
am I the only one who finds Sally Field god awful? Truly an overactor. Look at Spider-man, every scene she looks as if she's on the verge of tears. Cringeworthy, a major step down from Rosemary Harris who was pitch perfect as Aunt May. Plus every single review I've heard said she's very one-note and too overplayed for such a subtle film. I think she'll get in for SAG and Globes just for her name, but unless Lincoln is universally loved across the board i can't see her making it, even in such a weak year.
LEAD ACTRESS:
1. Jennifer Lawrence
2. Quvenzhane Wallis
3. Marion Cotillard
4. Emmanuelle Riva
5. Keira Knightley
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Anne Hathaway
2. Helen Hunt
3. Maggie Smith- Hotel
4. Pauline Collins- Quartet
5. Judi Dench- Skyfall
Finally, this line up is looking much more sensible with Watts in, and Winstead out. I am sure with the way Impossible has performed in Spain breaking all previous records, it's going to be a world-wide hit. And that should be sufficient enough to get her the required buzz and last minute push.
Brad, Don't you think Riva and Cottliard, both getting nomianted seems an improbabiltiy simply because not since 1986 has two foreign performances have been nominated in the same year ? I think depending on how Hitchcock turns out, Riva's nomination chances will decided. It's either going to her or Mirren.
Cotillard did not get any award in Cannes and I guess Riva did not get that award in Cannes because the movie got the Palme d'Or, if someone of both has to be as contender that one has to be Riva.
There is only one award in Cannes for female acting (No supporting categories), and I'm sorry but everyone knows Nanni Moretti killed the competition. And I have to say it but Diane Kruger was in the jury and I think it would be weird if she voted for her ex-husband's girlfriend. Except "Amour" all the critically acclaim movies were shut down ("Rust & Bone", "Holly Motors"..). For the first time since 2005 not even one award went to a french actor, director or a french production.
BTW she has "The Hollywood actress Award" and 3 tributes in less than 3 month just in North America, so stop trolling Marion Cotillard for nothing.
BTW If all these names are here it's that somehow they all worth it. Jennifer Lawrence is awesome in "Silver Linings Playbook" whatever if we don't see her 2 hours that's not a good reason.
I just admit I have some trouble with the 8 years old girl (Sory her name is too long) I think we should get the credits to the director because she is too young to be able to do what she did without an outstanding direction.
excuse me, how Kruger can influence in the decision of the best actress? she was 1 of 8 members, also she was not the president...this is ridiculous¡¡¡ I can not imagine her saying please do not vote Cotillard, she was the gf of my bf, this is a stupid gossip. The problem is when the movie gets the Palme d'Or, in those cases the actor does not get the award (in general), "Rust and bone" did not get any award.
Lawrence is a supporting role, Cooper is the lead so she would have to be in the supporting category, I do not like her acting style but I know that some people got impressed with her, sth similar happened with Winter`s Bone
" I can not imagine her saying please do not vote Cotillard"
me neither but she could have vote for other on purpuse! Don't switch my words I said she didn't vote for Marion ! NOTHING else!
BTW Lawrence is not a supporting role in "Silver linings Playbook"
SO I do not understand why you have mentioned Kruger if she was just a single vote, that does not mean nothing, you think that Kruger is not professional enough to separate her private life from her role of jury?? you do not say, you suggest ¡¡¡¡
Also if you compare Kruger and Cotillard who is the beauty???
Based on the trailer, Chastain might actually be the lead.
I agree, feel the same way. I'm just going to stick with her in Supporting for the time being.
I like your predictions, you are very objective in what you say. I agree with you when you say Riva and Cotillard are the two best performance of the year so far.
That's also the result of fact that Hollywood don't give enough big roles to his actresses unlike a lot of foreign productions (And notably the french ones). Except if you are Maryl freaking Streep of course.
I really think Jennifer Lawrence is gonna be nominated she is very convincing and funny in The Silver Linings Playbook and even if we don't see her a lot on screen she is memorable enough.
Q. Wallis let me with a big [ ??? ] I have no idea if she's gonna make it or not.
Until the academy start voting, I think N. Watts's chances will fall apart notably because of Mirren. There must be at least one actress in a biopic like it has always been.
Did anybody else hear about how Warner Bro's are campaigning Anne Hathaway as Lead in The Dark Knight Rises? I personally think it's very smart as it gets her out of the way of her Les Mis campaign and she pretty much is the Lead in that movie.
Wow, didn't know that. Thanks for sharing. She was obviously Supporting TDKR but I see what they're doing. Pretty smart. Her performance in TDKR is my no. 10. I would nominate her, she was just excellent in TDKR. One of my favorite performances of the year.
To be honest, it's kind of pointless as Anne Hathaway would need a miracle to be nominated for TDKR.
she was miscast as Selina, very forced act...
Camila, Anne Hathaway was wonderful in TDKR, and film critics praised her performance. Hathaway's turn was effortless, and she stole many scenes for me ( even when she was in a few scenes). Plus, Anne did most of her own fighting and stunts.
she did a very boring performance, catwoman would have to be mysterious, suggestive, sensual and she did a depressed, resentful, never powerful version, it is not only her fault, the script insists showing her as a Bane's puppet, the character does not grow up, it is like a horizontal straight line, very boring...Michelle Pfeiffer and Tim Burton mix are insuperable
I think it's sad how film popularity influences who the judges/members of the Academy will vote for. A performance is a performance, regardless of the box office numbers!