Oscar Predictions

2013 Oscar Predictions: A Post Toronto Look at Where We Stand

My official predictions begin next Monday, but here's a starter

2013 Oscar Predictions
Photo: AMPAS

The 2013 Oscar race feels like it has hardly begun and yet the calendar tells me we are knee deep in it. The Toronto Film Festival is now seen as a beacon that things are underway and out of it two films came away looking very strong and give us a good starting point to dig into some Oscar predictions before I kick off my official predictions next Monday, September 24.

Before we begin, Nathaniel at the Film Experience takes a statistical look at the Toronto results and adds that, "10 of the 34 past winners have gone on to Best Picture nominations with 4 eventually winning the top prize (The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, American Beauty and Chariots of Fire)." So there are your early odds as we move to...

Silver Linings PlaybookSilver Linings Playbook, which took home the audience prize at Toronto, and, just as importantly, was well-received by virtually every critic that saw it. Personally, I gave it my first A+ grade of the year and was won over not only by the narrative, but by the performances, which include Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence in the lead roles as well as strong performances from Jacki Weaver and Robert De Niro. Make no mistake, Silver Linings Playbook will be nominated for Best Picture and, from my perspective, is currently the front-runner if the year ended today.

Of course, there are some that would disagree with that sentiment, namely Roger Ebert who seems to have spoken too soon based on his article declaring it the winner when he started off saying, "The winner of the Academy Award for Best Picture will be Ben Affleck's tense new thriller Argo. How do I know this? Because it is the audience favorite coming out of the top-loaded opening weekend of the Toronto Film Festival." Sorry, but clearly that wasn't the case.

Ebert points to films such as No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, The Hurt Locker, The King's Speech and The Artist, but I'd argue only The King's Speech launched it's Oscar bid in Toronto, and of those mentioned only Slumdog and King's Speech won in Toronto while Cannes kick-started the others and Hurt Locker started in Seattle followed by Venice later that year.

Now, I do think you can go ahead and add Argo to your list of Best Picture predictions and you can probably add Ben Affleck to your list of directors and the film may find love in a few other categories from production design to costumes and/or makeup, but we'll get into those bits an bobs a little later down the road.

The MasterAfter both Venice and Toronto, it's also safe to add The Master to your predictions. You can also add Paul Thomas Anderson to your directors list and Joaquin Phoenix and probably Philip Seymour Hoffman to your actor and supporting actor lists.

The film didn't win anything in Toronto, but did manage kudos in Venice, winning the Silver Lion Award (directing) and Phoenix and Hoffman shared best acting honors. I do wonder, however, where Amy Adams may end up. The Supporting Actress category is looking pretty weak and she should land her a nomination easily, she gives a performance worthy of consideration, that's for sure, but I can't tell if she's the front-runner yet or not.

I saw The Sessions in Toronto and it definitely will be under consideration, but I'm not sure if it will squeak in for Best Picture. Helen Hunt and John Hawkes should definitely land nominations each, though it looks like Fox Searchlight is going to push Hunt in Supporting rather than where she belongs in lead so as to presumably make room for Quvenzhané Wallis from Beasts of the Southern Wild, another film that will also be looking for Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Dwight Henry) and Directing (Benh Zeitlin) nods and perhaps even Adapted Screenplay.

One film I really can't seem to put my finger on is Anna Karenina, a film I truly disliked, but many others either respect or love. I feel it is a likely Best Picture nominee, but Manohla Dargis at the New York Times isn't helping its chances calling it "a travesty with a miscast Keira Knightley" adding "that is tragic only in its conception and execution." Ouch! Any more of that and it can consider its chances over.

Another one I'm less confident will get a nod than Anna is The Impossible, another film that disappointed me greatly, but had others weeping in their seats. Once a full range of critical reviews arrive it will be easier to decide, but it is definitely in the mix.

I don't think Cloud Atlas has much of a shot at anything outside of technical awards -- it definitely deserves editing and makeup nods. Hyde Park on Hudson has me a bit confused because it's not a good movie. I think it has the appearance of one and is duping people into congratulatory statements, but it's such a mish-mash of tones and meaning it really brings nothing to the table. If anything, a nod for Bill Murray seems like the only topline possibility and it's a possibility that seems very distant at this point.

AmourLooking at Best Picture alone, Moonrise Kingdom has a chance at a nod and I'm still torn over what to do with Michael Haneke's Amour, a film that is certainly good enough to be considered a nominee and will certainly be nominated for Best Foreign Language. It's an incredibly tough film and if the Oscar demographics revealed earlier this year mean anything, it could really have an effect on the voters. The bigger question, though, is how many times has a film been nominated for both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Picture?

Looking at a write up by Emanuel Levy he points to The Emigrants, Z, Life is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon as four that managed the feat while there's also Grand Illusion, Cries and Whispers and Il Postino that were nominated for Best Picture, but not for Best Foreign Language. Grand Illusion is the only one of those three that was awarded before the establishment of the category in 1957.

So beyond these titles, what's left? On the next page I take a look at a couple of outsiders, several films that have yet to be seen and offer up a list of Best Picture predictions before I begin my official predictions next Monday.

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  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Anthony_X/ Anthony_X

    I think that Anna Karenina is totally OUT, the reviews are good but not great, and in a year so competitive like this that is not gonna cut it. Keira will get in because the weak field, and of course, costumes and maybe production design will be nominated.

    And I do think that Beasts of The Southern Wild will get the indie support instead of the Sessions (I believe Fox Searchlight will push the first more than the second). And maybe, just maybe Moonrise Kingdom might surprise them all (I believe that if Promised Land is not a hit, Focus Features will push Moonrise Kingdom and not Anna Karenina).

    Amour should go higher in my opinion because is the only bet that Sony Pictures Classics has.

    It also looks like Jennifer Lawrence has it in the bag already in September. Great year and raving-reviews for her will do it.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      I'd say Moonrise Kingdom is best indie bet.

      1. The critics orgasmed over it.
      2. There's usually always one or two films from the early Spring/Summer that make it in.
      3. You have to consider the Oscar demo, which is 60 year old white men. I saw Kingdom in a fairly packed theater. The vast majority of the audience was 58+ and they laughed throughout the film (at what, I can't say). So I basically saw the film with the Oscar demo and they loved it. I'd say it's pretty much a lock at this point.

      • tombeet

        I agree. And I honestly don't get it why people considers Moonrise Kingdom for BP alone and not Wes Anderson for Best Director. Surely he's more of screenwriter but the film shouldn't have worked without his vision, and be able to make such unique film is nothing short of amazing.

    • Arturo

      Good point I wouldn't rank Karenina at 7, it may squeese in there but only if there is nine noms like last year. If that, even then i think a movie like Django or Hobbit has a better chance.

    • heydoo

      All wrong.ALL!. The Hobbit will win and if there is some doubt go watch all 3 Lord of the Rings films and think again

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Sorkinfan/ Sorkinfan

    I have this crazy theory that Les Miserables is just going to nuts and make a heap of money/win a bunch of trophies. I can't really explain why, but I just have this feeling. So, take that as you will.

    Silver Linings Playbook is an interesting one, but I really, really hope that Lawerence wins either Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress because I consider her one of the best working actors today.

    On Moonrise Kingdom, no Wes Anderson film has ever been nominated for Best Picture nor has he ever been nominated for Best Director. I admit that I have yet to see the film--probably should get on that--but I don't know if this is the right film to break through. I'm probably wrong, but it just looks a little too cerebral/quirky for the Academy to recognize.

    The Sessions is one that I have no read on, at all. It, like the Master, seems to be on all the prediction lists which suprises me every single time.

    Also, no way is the Master winning, every review I've seen says you have to think about the film which does not equal something the academy is into. At all.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Sorkinfan/ Sorkinfan

    Also, Brad, did you forget Django or do you think that it's out? Personally, I would feel pretty confident that it's getting a nod.

  • camila

    "Playback" sounds like the new american comedy that I detest, I have seen the trailer and it sucks

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      lol

      • Alex

        agreed, lol

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

    The Sessions is my year's Winter's Bone. I had both on my radar after Sundance, and picked them as a nominee, and kept them there all year despite many critics saying that it won't get nominated. I hope it pays off. I think you should go with what you thought Brad-that Anna Karenina was not deserving of Best Picture. I wouldn't cut it out of the big awards race, but I think it may be too much for the Academy. I think Les Mis is a safe bet, however, if just because everything about it is a punch to the gut, and contains something the Academy will love. Currently, my nominees are:
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    The Master
    The Sessions
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

  • Winchester

    It's very early but as I haven't seen any of the films yet I can freely go wild based on bits and pieces of early buzz/thoughts.

    Best Picture

    The Master (it's headed toward being a lock for a slew of nominations and will safely be in here)

    Lincoln (I'm putting this one in because I think it's been Oscar bait for so long it'll probably pay off nominations wise)

    Argo (seems Academy friendly and also has the Hollywood factor)

    Life of Pi (maybe, maybe not)

    Les Miserables (seems up the Academy's street)

    The Silver Linings Playbook (seems to be a bit like The Master and headed on a roll for a bunch of noms)

    Others might include Zero Dark Thirty, Flight, The Hobbit, and I guess Django Unchained as well depending on reception etc.

    Best Actress

    It looks like Jennifer Lawrence will be in the running for 'The Silver Linings Playbook', possibly Marion Cotillard for 'Rust and Bone'. I have the feeling that Helen Hunt should probably be in this category for 'The Sessions' but if she gets pushed into Supporting Actress so be it. Also you have the outsider potentials such as Mary Elizabeth Winsted in 'Smashed'.

    Best Actor

    I guess I would imagine if 'The Silver Linings Playbook' becomes a player on the cicruit then it would seem reasonable to include Bradley Cooper for it, but I also think Denzel Washington could be a contender for 'Flight', alongside seeming certainties Daniel Day Lewis and Joaquin Phoenix. 'Les Miserables' would seem to offer up the chance for Hugh Jackman to score his first nomination (and you get the sense he's one of those actors the Academy is looking to recognise at some point) but I don't know if Russell Crowe could get in there as well (or would he be more likely as Supporting Actor? I've never seen 'Les Miserables'). Also John Hawkes for 'The Sessions'. There might be some foreign contenders as well such as (I forget their names) the male leads in 'Rust and Bone' and 'Amour'.

    Best Director

    Seems likely to involve David O Russell, PT Anderson, Steven Spielberg, Ben Affleck and then perhaps Ang Lee and Tom Hooper.

    Best Supporting categories

    I'm fairly fuzzy in this regard as I haven't seen enough, I guess Amy Adams for 'The Master' and Helen Hunt if she gets bumped from Best Actress contention. I don't know if any of the female 'Les Mis' roles would offer chances for Anne Hathaway or the like. Jackie Weaver could repeat again if 'Playbook' becomes a player.

    On the actor side, maybe Crowe if he doesn't qualify for Best Actor, I've heard rumblings again for Robert De Niro for 'Playbook' and if Phillip Seymour Hoffman isn't a Best Actor contender then surely he's in here for Supporting.

    That's all I've thought about so far.

    • Winchester

      Oh, also maybe Zemeckis for Best Director for 'Flight', and I also have the feel that Sally Field will be pushed in Best Supporting Actress for 'Lincoln'. She could sneak in as the 'old timer' nomination alongside De Niro that the Academy often puts in each year alongside a younger newcomer.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

      Here's the rundown on Les Mis (biased due to being a huge fan): Although not being its main goal (that would be make a shitload of money), this movie just is naturally perfect for the Academy. There really hasn't been a musical like this in contention since My Fair Lady and The Sound of Music, and even then, they are a bit different. Then you have to consider the groundbreaking element-Les Mis is singing all of the songs live, something never done before on a wide scale (there are rumors that Rex Harrison and Barbera Streisand did, but only those two and that is unconfirmed). So that brings something to it. While on Broadway they pushed Hugh Jackman and Russell Crowe's characters as Lead, that isn't really the case, as the story is really all Hugh Jackman's. And really, with how much the character has, Hugh really only needs to nail one song to be considered in the race.Tom Hooper is previously nominated, which makes him at least a contender. As for Supporting, there are feasibly four possibilities. Russell Crowe is the likeliest, but I also see Eddie Redmayne sneaking in. Sacha Baron Cohen probably won't be nominated, but as the most fun (and evil) character, and with Dog Eat Dog (one of the most horribly wonderful songs written) under his belt, don't rule him out. Aaron Tveit is feasible, but I don't think they will give him enough screentime. As for females, Amanda Seyfried is the most and least important character. Everything really involves her, but she has a relatively small part in the scheme of things. So you can rule her out. After that, there are three to consider: Anne, Helena, and Samantha Barks. Helena is also small, but she is as much fun as her character's evil husband, SBC. Anne gets to do a full range of award-baity things, without spoiler, but she is relatively minor in scope. However, I consider her front runner. However, I also say Samantha is fairly likely. She literally has a Jennifer Hudson story. She was on a singing competition in UK, she lost, but was fairly loved for her voice, and she got the role in the big movie, and boy is it a powerhouse. With the exception of Hugh and Anne, she gets the show's big song. That's a rundown of the major categories. As for technical, look for it everywhere. I thought you'd like this since you said you didn't know much about it and this can help with some prediction-making.

      • Winchester

        Thanks for the perspective!

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

          No problem

  • Yent

    Brad- The Master was NOT in competition in Toronto hence why it didn't win anything.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Anthony_X/ Anthony_X

      I thought that every movie that is screened is in competition in Toronto.

      You vote submitting your ticket either online or after the screening. That's why Toronto added an additional screening to Silver Linings Playbook before the deadline, so more people could vote for it.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ben/ Ben

    Brad,

    In your opinion which category will be the most competitive this Oscar year?

  • Jack

    Few thoughts. Silver Linings Playbook will be this year's Descendants, Little Miss Sunshine, and it's backed by Weinstein. Argo will certainly contend-true thriller based on Hollywood, directed by Affleck produced by Clooney. The Master will probably be a critical favorite a dark horse, that'll probably score more than 5% of the first place votes such as Black Swan, Tree of Life, Inglourious Basterds. The Sessions will probably miss out to Playbook the other dramedy.

    Who knows how many nominees there will be. I'm predicting 7.
    1. Argo
    2. Silver Linings Playbook
    3. The Master
    4. Lincoln
    5. Les Miserables
    6. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    7. Life of Pi

    BUBBLE LINE:
    8. Promised Land
    9. Zero Dark Thirty
    10. Amour

  • Bradley

    Why isn't anyone predicting "The Dark Knight Rises" as a best picture nominee?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Mason%20Williamson/ Mason Williamson

      It not being all that good feels like it could hurt its chances. ;)

      • Winchester

        Yup. This.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Bradley/ Bradley

        I thought it was flawless. I honestly loved it. My favourite of the trilogy.

        • The New Guy

          They held a special press screening for members of the academy, and it wasn't pretty.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

          I could definitely point out some flaws for you, ya know, if you wanted me to...

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Criterion10/ Criterion10

      Definitely won't happen. If Academy didn't nominate TDK, there's no way they will nominate TDKR.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      There's a stronger possibility that The Avengers will get nominated before TDKR (which is to say, there is no chance).

  • Chris

    After TIFF, is Chris Nolan officially out for his first director nom?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/G-Man/ G-Man

      I certainly hope not. I can understand the no Best Picture argument given there are some narrative flaws. In terms of his direction though, I thought Nolan was still spot on and on the same level as TDK - even if the movie itself wasn't as good.

  • Chris

    1. Silver Linings Playbook
    2. Argo
    3. The Master
    4. Moonrise Kingdom
    5. Django Unchained
    6. Les Miserables
    7. Flight
    -----------------------------
    8. The Sessions
    9. Zero Dark Thirty
    10. Beasts of the Southern Wild

    I feel Life of Pi is gonna underwhelm people and by its time to nominate Anna Karenina will be forgotten. Then Spielberg got a nom last year for making a bad movie so he won't get a nom this year when he does it again.

    Best Actor
    It will be between Daniel Day Lewis vs. Joaquin Phoenix. I'm pulling for Joaquin. John Hawkes and Bradley Cooper will be the dark horse noms.

    Best Actress
    Jennifer Lawrence could win her first Oscar here, but Helen Hunt will be her biggest competition. Not many others are putting up much of a fight.

    Best Supporting Actor
    Hoping Leonardo DiCaprio lands his first Oscar(hard to believe he's never won one yet). Philip Seymour Hoffman has a strong chance too though.

    Best Supporting Actress
    If Amy Adams is put in this category for The Master she could finally win one.

    Best Original Screenplay
    The Master vs. Django Unchained

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Argo vs. Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Director
    Ben Affleck
    David O'Russell
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    Quentin Tarantino
    Wes Anderson

    Really hope Tom Hooper doesn't come in and appeal to the old fucks running the Academy with a generic musical and wins over real filmmaking. God I cant get over The Kings Speech beating The Social Network and Inception for Best Picture and Best Director over Fincher.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Anthony_X/ Anthony_X

      I almost agree with all of these except for the Django bits. I don't think that with the news of troubled production the outcome is going to be good enough.

      I would change Django for Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Tarantino with Hooper (unfortunately).

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

        If Django Unchained does not get nominated for any Oscars (or, just DiCaprio), it will not be a reflection of the films quality. It will mean that the film simply did not appeal, for whatever reason, to 60 year old white men. I do, however, expect it to have similar reception to that of Inglourious Basterds (although, Basterds had the whole "war film" thing going for it).

        • james

          Lol... I hope that last part is not a shot at me.

          • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

            James, EVERYTHING is a shot at you.

        • james

          Lol. Oh, I hit a nerve. You quoted "war film" as if referring to own chat. So you do agree that it's a war film.

          • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

            *sighs

  • Roger

    No love for the Hobbit then??? I Wonder how that's going to play out...

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

    Not sure on the number of BP nominations, but as of now I've got 8: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Master, and Silver Linings. Moonrise could sneak in, maybe Flight, Anna, Cloud Atlas, or The Sessions as well. I would love for The Master to win, but this race seems as wide open as I can ever remember.

    Best Director: Even if The Master doesn't win best picture, I think PTA has a great shot at winning director. I also have Affleck, Russell, Spielberg, and Tarantino nominated right now, though I have an unfortunate feeling Tom Hooper might bump Tarantino out. A nomination for Ang Lee also seems like a possibility.

    Best Actor: As others have said, seems to be Phoenix v. Day-Lewis, and unless Day-Lewis absolutely knocks it out of the park I think Phoenix is winner. I also have John Hawkes, Denzel Washington, and Bradley Cooper getting in.

    Best Actress: This field seems incredibly weak this year. Right now it looks like it'll be between Jennifer Lawrence, Marion Cotillard, and Helen Hunt. Helen Hunt is probably getting put in supporting, Cotillard already has one win for a foreign language performance, so it seems like it might just be Jennifer Lawrence's year, which is something I have no problems with.

    Best Supporting Actor: I've got Russell Crowe, DiCaprio, De Niro, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, and Christoph Waltz penciled in right now, but have heard great things about Alan Arkin and John Goodman in Argo. It'll probably come down to DiCaprio v. Hoffman.

    Best Supporting Actress: I would love to see Amy Adams win, but I think Anne Hathaway could be great in Les Miserables, and if Helen Hunt gets put in this category (it sounds like she will) she could be a contender as well.

    Best O. Screenplay - PTA v. Tarantino, and I would bet heavily on PTA winning at this point.

    Best A. Screenplay - Probably Silver Linings, especially if it makes a run at the other major categories. However, it would be great to see Andrew Dominick get some recognition for Killing Them Softly, and Argo also seems like a real possibility.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Anthony_X/ Anthony_X

      I don't think that PTA has any chance unless the Master is either the winner of Best Picture or is in a two-dog race for Best Picture.

      There is not going to be a split BP/BD if the race for Best Picture is not super close.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

        Agreed, but I think this year there's a very good chance it'll be close in the end, maybe even between 3 or 4 films. Silver Linings and Argo both sound like real contenders, and there's a handful of potential winners nobody has seen yet. I haven't seen Silver Linings, so correct me if I'm wrong Brad, but it just doesn't seem like the type of film to win Best Director. The one benefit I think The Master may have is the early release date, academy members will have a lot more time to contemplate the film before voting, and if it's like PTA's previous films, appreciation will only increase with time. Of course, it's probably more likely that PTA gets Original Screenplay as a consolation prize, similar to Tarantino and others in past.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

    I won't get into my full predictions list (and reasoning) here, as I'll wait until next Monday. But as of this moment, here are my current BP predictions (in order of most to least likely):

    Lincoln
    The Hobbit
    The Master
    Les Misérables
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Anna Karenina
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Argo
    Hyde Park on Hudson

    • Arturo

      good point on Hobbit. People are forgetting about Hobbit, I think it has a chance of squeezing in there.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

        It has more than a chance. I'd say it's a front runner.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    I have to agree that Silver Linings Playbook is now the frontrunner. It looks like a feel-good film about overcoming disability, something the Academy loves endlessly. The Sessions has this as well, along with the same great reviews, but I think it will be too small of a film to win, especially since the thematically similar Silver Linings Playbook seems much more accessible. Les Mis is still a huge contender to me. It's a big budget studio film, the likes of which the Academy hasn't gone with since The Departed, but it definitely should appeal to them. Right now I see it as Silver Linings vs. Les Mis, with Silver Linings as the frontrunner. Other contenders for noms include The Master (lock, but won't win much aside from maybe one or two acting awards and cinematography), Argo, The Sessions, and Beasts. One of either Anna Karenina or Lincoln will likely get in, and maybe Moonrise Kingdom. There's been at least one blockbuster nominee every year since the expansion in '09 (if you count The Help as a blockbuster), but the only ones with any chance this year seem to be The Hobbit and Django, and both seem like longshots.

  • Stiggy

    Based on the fact that the original trilogy got all 3 installments nominated at a time when there were 5 nominees a year, it would be very stupid to rule out The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey as a potential nominee.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      After Lincoln, I'd say it's the strongest contender. In fact, as of this moment, it wouldn't surprise me if it swept.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Aleonardis/ Aleonardis

        There's rumblings that all three upcoming Hobbit movies are padded to add to the runtime. Basically to stretch into a trilogy for the sake of marketing as a trilogy. I'm cautiously optimistic...

        • The New Guy

          Hopefully, it can turn out alright and be that best picture nominee that just so happens to make a lot of money. And while The Hobbit will be there, most likely, all the Nolan fanboys will send death threats to the academy for not nominating tdkr

    • goere

      Yeah, all the Hobbit haters will have to meet up with reality on Dec. 14

  • SP1234

    Actor: Definately Day-Lewis and Phoenix locked in. Jackman could be a big contender as well. As for the other two, at this point, I'll say Affleck and Hawkes probably,

    Actress: Lawrence is definately in, and even though I personally want her nominated for Hunger Games, the big buzz for Silver Linings is wonderful to hear. Cotillard will make it in, no question. And Wallis should probably get some consideration. The other two I have is Watts and Winstead. Knightley will probably get a lot of nominees, but no Oscar. Streep just won, and personally, Hope Springs is more Golden Globe material.

    Supporting Actor: DiCaprio's gonna be a lock, regardless of how large his role is. Hoffman for sure, as well as Crowe. And Arkin and Cranston could both be nominated for Argo. Too many supporting performances from Lincoln, but I would pick Jones and Gordon-Levitt (hearing him talk about his character in the Hangout is good enough for me). From a geek-point, if Fassbender and Hardy only got consideration for both Prometheus and The Dark Knight Rises, that will be satisfying.

    Supporting Actress: Adams and Hathaway for sure (Hathaway definately for Les Mis, even though I really loved her Catwoman). Probably Field and Hunt as well. Chastain could be a possible (Academy will go for Zero Dark Thirty, but she should get strong consideration for Lawless).

  • SP1234

    I do agree the Best Actress list at this point is a little weak. I think the reason why was that Sandra Bullock and Carey Mulligan were both taken out of the race (Gravity's effects work definately delayed it and because of Cloud Atlas, they probably made the right decision and Gatsby was ready, but the studio wanted a summer reception. If they didn't move it, I'm convinced Mulligan would be in a three-way battle with Cotilard and Lawrence.).

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Bradley/ Bradley

      Is there definitely no chance of Gravity being released this year? Some films have late pushes. If they don't release it, or at least screen it, this year then I'd rather wait until the end of 2013 and let it get some Academy recognition, which seems highly likely considering the reviews from the May test screening of the film. Especially for Sandra Bullock.

      • SP1234

        I don't think so. Last I heard they were still working on the effects.

  • http://www.twitter.com/GregDinskisk GregDinskisk

    Best Pic:

    Moonrise Kingdom - I hope it makes it, I loved this, and many other seemed to too.

    Silver Linings Playbook - From what everyone has seemed to say, I wouldn't be surprised if this won.

    Argo - You have to count Ebert's opinion, it is definitely a contender.

    The Hobbit - I'm not a fan of The Lord of the Rings series, but I know this'll be a contestant.

    Life of Pi - A feeling I have.

    The Master - Everyone knows why.

    Les Miserables - Oscar bait.

    Beasts of the Southern Wild - I have a feeling this is locked, as of now.

    POSSIBILITIES:

    The Sessions - From what I've heard, it is possible.

    Looper - I can hope!!!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/G-Man/ G-Man

    Granted I haven't seen either of them yet (and I know Brad hasn't seen the latter), but how about Looper and Skyfall as contenders for certain categories?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Anthony_X/ Anthony_X

      I wish Looper could get in a la District 9 but is highly unlikely.

      In my opinion, Looper might have a chance for Best Original Screenplay, while Skyfall might get some tech nominations... Maybe cinematography.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AndrewJ.S./ Andrew J.S.

    1. Lincoln (I'm sticking with Lincoln in top spot until it's been seen simply because even though the trailer didn't exactly have people awing over it, there's nothing that suggests it's not a film academy voters will just eat up.)
    2. Silver Linings Playbook (Obviously)
    3. The Master (Has to)
    4. Les Miserables (Another obvious one, but I just can't imagine a Tom Hooper filming winning best picture and presumably director twice in three years.)
    5. Django Unchained (1) The academy loves Tarantino, and 2) they'll applaud themselves for nominating a film so "controversial")
    6. Promise Land (It seems there's usually a spot for a politically minded film. Fracking isn't an issue most people know much about, and a nomination for this one would get that message out there)
    7. Argo
    8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    9. The Sessions
    10. Anna Karinara
    __________
    11. Hyde Park on Hudson ( I could see this one and Anna battling it out for the last spot)

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Orhan94/ Orhan94

    The locks:
    1. Argo
    2. The Master
    3. Silver Linings Playbook

    Possibilities
    4. Lincoln
    5. Les Miserables
    6. Django Unchained
    7. Life of Pi
    8. Moonrise Kingdom
    9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

    In the event of an unlikely 10 nominees, the fight for slot number 10 will be between
    - Anna Karenina
    - The Sessions
    - Zero Dark Thirty

    Or even
    -Hyde Park on Hudson and the Hobbit

    That being said I predict 6-8 nominees, with Django and Lincoln falling off first should the nominees be fewer than 9
    -----
    Actor: Phoenix vs. Day Lewis (joined most likely by Jackman, Hawkes and Cooper, with a chance that Murray sneaks in)
    -----
    Actress: Lawrence vs. Knightley (beating out Cotillard, Winstead and Wallis)
    -----
    Supp. Actor: diCaprio (along with Hoffman, Macy, DeNiro with a Lincoln or Argo supp. actor probably making the cut as well)
    -----
    Supp. Actress: Adams vs. Hathaway vs. Hunt (with Sally Field and a random old lady from Marigold applauding the eventual winner as nominees)
    -----
    Director: probably the trickiest category as of now, it will come down who makes the cut between Spielberg, O. Russell, PTA, Lee, Affleck and Hooper (and possibly Bigelow and Tarantino).
    ------
    Original Screenplay: Django Unchained vs. The Sessions vs. Moonrise Kingdom vs. Zero Dark Thirty vs. The Master
    Adapted Screenplay: Argo vs. Anna Karenina vs. Silver Linings Playbook vs. Life of Pi vs. Les Miserables
    ------
    Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph vs. Brave vs. From Up on Poppy Hill vs. Frankenweenie vs. Rise of the Guardians

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Aleonardis/ Aleonardis

    I feel like since this supporting actress field is REALLY weak, voters will see Hathaway in Les Mis, say it's too small, then nominate her for DKR because she had an amazing year. Just one of those things that once the cobwebs are brushed back come end of the year, I can see happening.

    Saying that, Best Pic I think goes as follows so far:
    Amour
    Argo
    Beasts
    Les Mis
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Silver Linings Playbook

    Promised Land, Life of Pi, Flight, Django, Zero Dark Thirty, Moonrise, Hobbit, and The Impossible are definite possibilites. Amour and Beasts are the likely dropouts if anything comes along and knocks our socks off. (Ala Hugo last year...) But honestly, at this point, if you're not predicting Lincoln you're a fool. They nominated War Horse. What makes you think they won't nominate this. That is a story adapted from a children's novel. This is Honest Fucking Abe as done by DDL and Spielberg. It was a lock at it's conception.

    I'm feeling a really good aura surrounding Skyfall and that would be a fucking sexy nomination if there ever was one. Same with Looper. And a boy can hope for the DKR landing in Best Pic but we live in a world where pigs don't fly.

  • http://timeforafilm.com Alex Thomas

    Looking at your 10 on that list, hard to disagree with much except I think Moonrise Kingdom gets a nom for sure.

  • The New Guy

    Hmmm... My Best Picture nominees, not in any particular order, are:
    Argo
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Hobbit
    Beasts of a wild that is south
    Anna Karenia
    -------BUBBLE LINE-------
    Amour
    Cloud Atlas
    The Impossible

    • The New Guy

      EDIT: 10 seconds after this is posted, I realize I want to substitute The Impossible with Moonrise Kingdom.

  • http://kaisaccofilm.tumblr.com/ Kai Sacco

    1. Argo
    2. The Master
    3. The Sessions
    4. Moonrise Kingdom
    5. Django Unchained
    6. Silver Linings Playbook
    7. Les Miserables
    8. Life of Pi

    ---Bubble Line---

    9. Lincoln
    10. Killing Them Softly

    • http://kaisaccofilm.tumblr.com/ Kai Sacco

      ---Wildcards---

      1. Skyfall
      2. Looper
      3. The Dark Knight Rises

  • Chris

    I know I will be disappointed in the end anyways. Les Miserables looks like the film that will ruin the Oscars this year.

    How the last few year should've went

    2009 - The Dark Knight
    2010 - Inglourious Basterds (I agree with Laremy, best Tarantino film so far)
    2011 - The Social Network
    2012 - Midnight in Paris or Moneyball, The Artist won because of a weak field.

    • Chris

      woops meant to put 50/50 for 2012. Was only looking at the noms from last year. 50/50 was the best movie last year hands down in my POV

      • JN Films

        Thank you Chris! 50/50 was snubbed so bad last year, and it was easily the best film last year. JGL for Best Actor last year.

  • JN Films

    People are forgetting about Looper! It's at 100% and critics are loving it!

  • marion

    PIC:
    ARGO
    SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
    THE MASTER
    THE SESSIONS
    BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
    DJANGO UNCHAINED
    LINCOLN

    ACTOR
    JOAQUIM PHOENIX FOR THE WIN OR UPSET BY JOHN HAWKES I THE SESSIONS

    ACTRESS:
    JENNIFER LAWRENCE VS MARION COTILLARD

    SUP. ACTOR:
    LEO DI CAPRIO´S FIRST WIN UNLESS UPSET BY SEYMOUR HOFFMAN FOR THE MASTER

    SUP. ACTRESS:
    ANNE HATHAWAY FOR LES MISERABLES BUT I RATHER SEE HER GET IT FOR THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. HER ONLY REAL RIVAL IS HELEN HUNT FOR THE SESSIONS

    DIRECTOR:
    I LOVE PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON´S WORK (EXCEPT PUNCH DRUNK LOVE AND THAT´S JUST BECAUSE OF ADAM SANDLER) AND HE DESERVES THE AWARD HE IS LONG OVERDUE ( MAGNOLIA, BOOGIE NIGHTS, THERE WILL BE BLOOD U NAME IT) THE ONLY UPSET COULD COME FROM BEN AFFLECK FOR ARGO OR TARANTINO FOR DJANGO UNCHAINED.

  • Arturo

    Best Pic

    1) Silver Linings Playbook
    2) The Master
    3) Argo
    4) Les Miserables
    5) Beasts of tthe Southern Wild
    6) Life of Pi
    7) Lincoln
    8) The Sessions

    other possibilities
    9) Django Unchained
    10) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

  • Arturo

    Do any of you guys know if Jennifer Lawrence will be in Supporting or Lead?

  • TheMatt

    I do love the entire Oscar process. Once I realized that winners are typically determined way before the presenter pulls out the envelope, I began to grow fascinated at the process. It really lends itself to a year long focus, since it is interesting to determine exactly when leads begin to form. It really is like a sports season. For two years, I have selected 10 possible nominees. Last year I think I was able to get maybe 5 or 6 the day after the previous year’s Oscars. This year I picked out 10 the week afterwards and genuinely think it will be either 5 or 6 in the end. I am especially proud of putting Silver Linings Playbook at #4 back in early March. I then read the book and loved it a lot. I don’t know if i’ve had that edge of your seat experience in a while. So I am super pumped Silver Linings Playbook is going to be so good. I knew David O Russell is doing some fantastic stuff, giving us the pleasure of characters that we sympathize with. The Fighter was so good because we loved those people. The Silver Linings Playbook source reminded me of that and I can see how Russell will nail it with that material.
    Anyways, last year at this time, I believe The Artist was starting to feel unbeatable. War Horse had still to show us what it was made of, but the momentum was building like crazy. By October I almost think it was pretty much sealed. This year feels a bit more unpredictable. But right now, my #1 is The Master. It could either be a Social Network or it could on the other hand be a No Country for Old Men, or There Will Be Blood for that matter. It just has a feel to it, the electricity. To me, Venice is a big moment for it. It really kinda won Picture, Director and Acting there. It currently sits at 90 on metacritic (TWBB ended at 92). Biggest limited opening weekend of all time. It will no doubt go strong with critics end of year, then all it really needs is Phoenix with SAG (nominees in December! wow that’s soon) and the momentum will be quite strong. I also see Silver Linings Playbook as a front runner now with TIFF, surely the “audience favorite” now. But the critics will like it too, similar to King’s Speech I think, though The King’s Speech had the backlash from folks who were tired of historical dramas, which SLP is definitely not. Also, Argo is certainly up there with Ebert’s prediction. To me it’s then what comes of Lincoln, Les Mis or Life of Pi, and less I think Zero Dark and Django. If Lincoln gets any kind of good reviews, it will be a contender. It has the gravitas and the Day-Lewis. Though, it could easily be a War Horse re-tread really. I think a few will love it, a few will think it’s okay, but then some will HATE it. Could be a 65 metacritic kind of thing, just too history channel-ish. Plus people might not get past Day-Lewis’ voice. That voice makes Phoenix almost a lock for Best Actor. On that note, as the main original screenplay, I the Master already has critics awards, SAG Best Actor, Globes Drama (Silver Linings – Comedy), Screenplay, Best Actor oscar, probably Cinematography, all about a 90% chance. But I digress… okay, Les Mis. I think it’s a unique take on the musical, word on the early footage is very positive, big actors, yada yada. it’s just too perfect though. Hooper JUST won director and picture. Les Mis has been done SO many times. So I see it being a BIG nominee (maybe even over 10) but probably not winning much. Life of Pi, gosh I just hope people see that like I do, just, ughhh… The cheesy colors and, gosh I kinda hope this is basically this year’s Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. I think it is. Zero Dark Thirty, just briefly, not that Bigelow has won too recently, but that pretty much it’s the same TYPE of movie as Hurt Locker, but has too much baggage, not even politically, but Hurt Locker was like this brilliant, back to basics pressure cooker. Zero Dark Thirty will be badass, but just too big and “timely” perhaps. Django… ahhh, Inglorious did so well, probably because it was about WWII, Django is drifting into territory that I think will rend it a bit more obscure to a wide range of folks. Also it’s kind of a retread of Inglorious in its themes. Dicaprio, Waltz maybe, original screenplay sure… Anna Karenina, I predicted it as the winner in early March, I hope it gets nominated for Picture, will be in Actress, maybe Adapted Screenplay, Set Design. It’s dividing folks, though I’m sure i’ll love it. Beasts of the Southern Wild. Yes! The one of these i’ve actually seen! I think if it’s made it this far with its buzz in tact it will make it across the finish line, well in nominations at least, this year’s (I hate to keep doing this) Midnight in Paris in many ways, just in being a big Summer favorite that people just got charmed by and it lasted all year. Amour: I love what i’ve heard about it, but the Oscars have started finding places for these brilliant foreign films (Pan’s Labyrinth comes to mind). Original Screenplay may be its breakthrough nomination, supporting Actor/Actress too perhaps, foreign language, yeah. Flight. Zemeckis! Gotta love that Zemeckis, but I would be surprised. He has been making really really bad movies lately, really bad. And plus, he’s always had a bit of the cheese to him, just sometimes really good cheese. Flight will be seen as a heart warming and uplifting movie that doesn’t quite have the depth I think Denzel has a shot at Actor though.
    So for me right now it’s The Master with Silver Linings and Argo with some heat, then Lincoln and Les Mis the big competition, but in comparison to the last couple of years, it’s a bit more hectic, which is good. I still think The Master has the biggest shot at hitting that critical mass of inevitability. I just think it’s due for another, director’s director year, where a more challenging, mature, “deep” and cinematic picture goes the distance, like No Country for Old Men… Here are my picks in the 6 big categories, all in order of likelihood…
    est Picture
    1. The Master
    2. Silver Linings Playbook
    3. Argo
    4. Les Miserables
    5. Lincoln
    6. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    7. Anna Karenina
    8. Zero Dark Thirty
    9. Life of Pi
    10. Django Unchained
    Best Director
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    David O. Russell
    Ben Afleck
    Tom Hooper
    Steven Spielberg
    Best Actress
    Jennifer Lawrence
    Keira Knightley
    Quvenzhane Wallis
    Marion Cotillard
    Naomi Watts
    Best Actor
    Joaquin Phoenix
    Daniel Day Lewis
    John Hawkes
    Hugh Jackman
    Bradley Cooper
    Screenplay (Original)
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Amour
    Django Unchained
    Looper
    Screenplay (Adapted)
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Beasts of the Southern Wild

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      Now THAT is what is you call a comment.

  • Anymouse

    BEST PICTURE (I'll list 10, as I think it's too early to start bubble-lining anything right now):

    1) The Master: critics love it, it's a movie that makes you think, excellent performances, beautifully shot and directed... yup, a lock.
    2) Lincoln: sentimental and old-fashioned... in other words, precisely what the Academy loves.
    3) Les Miserables: the first musical film since 'Chicago' that looks like it could be a bonafide hit.
    4) Life of Pi: will probably be a dazzling display of gorgeous cinematography coupled with highly original plot.
    5) Argo: a meaty political thriller with great performances - the Academy won't ignore this one.
    6) Beasts of the Southern Wild: a gritty and uplifting tale with incredible performances and critical praise. Very likely.
    7) Silver Linings Playbook: probably the most unexpected hit of the year. Bound to be a critical darling and one of the best films of the year.
    8) Django Unchained: if the Academy nominated 'Inglourious Basterds,' then this is surely bound to receive the same treatment (if it's just as good).
    9) The Hobbit: could be as good as the original trilogy, and fantasy films are right up the Academy's alley.
    10) Anna Karenina: will divide many critics, but it's one of the most daring period pieces ever put on screen, and the Academy can't keep away from these kinds of films.

    Zero Dark Thirty could very well make the cut if it's good. The Dark Knight Rises may get a pity nom after the fiasco in 2008 with The Dark Knight. Amour has a slight chance, depending on how much the Academy loves it. I do think it's all but assured the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar. Moonrise Kingdom got a lot of love from critics, but I feel it's just too quirky for the Academy. Wes Anderson's previous films were shut out, and Moonrise isn't all TOO different from the others. And as much as I loved The Sessions (and I loved it immensely), I don't know if it can get anything beyond acting considerations. I really hope I'm wrong, because it's a beautiful piece of filmmaking and utterly deserving of a Best Picture nod.

    BEST DIRECTOR:

    1) Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
    2) Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
    3) Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
    4) Ang Lee - Life of Pi
    5) Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained (one can hope)

    BEST ACTOR

    1) Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln: satisfies everything the Academy loves - an excellent actor playing a famous historical figure in a period piece. Regardless if the film stinks, this is a mortal lock.
    2) Joaquin Phoenix - The Master: apparently he gives the performance of his career, so there's no chance he'll be ignored.
    3) John Hawkes - The Sessions: my personal favorite going in, Hawkes has climbed my list of favorite actors with this remarkable performance. Limited to only his head and face, he still manages to convey all the depth, sincerity and beauty of his role.
    4) Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables: a versatile actor in one of Broadway's most coveted roles. I don't know how he can be ignored if he's both acting AND singing here.
    5) Denzel Washington - Flight: the surprise nom of the year. I think the role has the potential to secure a nomination. We'll see in the end.

    The only other person who could conceivably be nominated is Bill Murray for Hyde Park on Hudson. But if the film flops both critically and commercially (which is likely), then he may be snubbed. He's a great actor - it's a pity that the movie isn't The King's Speech 2.0.

    BEST ACTRESS

    1) Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild: considering just how young she was, the fact that she could sketch such a fully-fledged character the way she did really deserves applause. The buzz that would be generated with her nomination would definitely be a good thing.
    2) Marion Cotillard - Rust & Bone: personally I think she's one of the most talented actresses in the industry, and another nomination for her is clearly due. This should be the film to score it.
    3) Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook: she's just been riding high ever since her remarkable debut in Winter's Bone. If the critics say she's a frontrunner, then she's a frontrunner. The fact that she was in the fan-favorite The Hunger Games only helps her cause.
    4) Emmanuelle Riva - Amour: this is essentially Julie Christie in Away from Her - any role that involves the portrayal of slowly worsening dementia will be given its due. She's a beloved veteran of the screen, and the field is weak enough for her to slip in.
    5) Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina: a bit unsure of this one, mostly because no other actress in the role of Anna has ever been nominated (including legends like Garbo and Vivien Leigh). So by nominating Knightley, the Academy is indirectly saying, "Okay, yeah, she's the best film Anna of them all." Which I don't think is true. But the field is so weak this year that she'll be nominated just because it's a meatier role than most others. And because everyone was expecting this slot to be Carey Mulligan's for The Great Gatsby.

    The perceived frontrunner for many months was Laura Linney for Hyde Park... not anymore. If most critics are calling her role in that bland and banal, then surely she'll be passed on. If she's nominated, then it'll be a Glenn-Close-in-Albert-Nobbs kind of thing - a beloved vet being nominated even though she doesn't deserve it. Meryl Streep's recent win makes her an unlikely choice for another nomination, for a far less substantial role to boot. Naomi Watts may get consideration simply for the realism and Christ-like suffering of her role in The Impossible. Viola Davis has a slight chance, but I doubt Won't Back Down will be good enough. Judi Dench has a chance for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, but I don't think it'll stand out amongst the others. I really want Rachel Weisz to be considered for her work in The Deep Blue Sea - in my mind, it's still the strongest lead female performance I've seen this year. But she'll probably be overlooked.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    1) Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master: anything he does is worth nominating, and this is no exception.
    2) Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained: his performance could be just as good as Waltz's performance in Basterds. A very likely nom.
    3) Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild: a touching performance hitting on a variety of emotions. Another likely nom.
    4) Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook: I know very little of his performance, but the critics praised it, so it should be enough for a nod.
    5) Alan Arkin - Argo: same case as De Niro's; originally I had Russell Crowe here for Les Mis, but I think Arkin will have the edge in the end.

    Not much else to add. I would love to see William H. Macy nominated for his role in The Sessions, as he's an utter delight to watch in that, but it's not as substantial as the performances of Hawkes and Hunt. Michael Caine for Dark Knight Rises is a sentimental choice, but a distant longshot. Jude Law received more acclaim than Knightley for his restrained performance in Anna Karenina, but the field is too strong this year, I think.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    1) Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables: all you have to do is watch the trailer to know that her win is all but guaranteed. Fantine may not be the biggest role in the musical, but it's perhaps the most affecting and emotional, and Hathaway looks as though she has all that in spades.
    2) Amy Adams - The Master: she's been nominated three times already, and her work in this seems to be just as good as her others. An easy nom.
    3) Helen Hunt - The Sessions: personally, I do think Hunt is supporting rather than lead - she doesn't come into the film until approximately the second act. But boy is she astounding. There's no way she'll be snubbed.
    4) Sally Field - Lincoln: see DDL - a veteran playing a historical figure in a period drama? Yup, definite nom. Will probably be akin to Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech, though - a nom that's nice to see, but one that has little chance of winning.
    5) Pauline Collins - Quartet: honestly have no clue who to add here. I heard Collins has an affecting role in this film, and honestly if not her, then it may as well be Maggie Smith in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Or Vanessa Redgrave in Song for Marion. In other words: a celebrated English vet in a decent, affecting role.

    There are really only two other possibilities: Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook, and Jessica Chastain in either Lawless or (more likely) Zero Dark Thirty. I honestly can't think of anyone else. Slim pickings this year.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    1) The Master
    2) Amour
    3) Moonrise Kingdom
    4) Django Unchained
    5) Looper (???)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    1) Lincoln
    2) Les Miserables
    3) Life of Pi
    4) Beasts of the Southern Wild
    5) Silver Linings Playbook

  • http://cinemmaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

    Here are my predictions ...

    Best Picture

    1. Lincoln
    2. Argo
    3. The Master
    4. Les Mesrables
    5. Life of Pi
    6. Beasts of Southern Wild
    7. Silver Linings Playbook
    8. Amour
    9. Django Unchained
    10. The Impossible

    Best Director

    1. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
    2. Steven Speilberg, Lincoln
    3. Tom Hooper, Les Mesrables
    4. Ben Affleck, Argo
    5. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    6. Michael Haneke, Amour

    Best Actress

    1. Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of Southern Wild
    2. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    3. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
    5. Emmanuelle Liva, Amour

    Best Actor

    1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
    2. John Hawkes, The Sessions
    3. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
    4. Denzel Washington, The Flight
    5. Hugh Jackman, Les Mesrables

    Best Supporting Actress

    1. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    2. Anne Hathaway, Les Mesrables
    3. Amy Adams, The Master
    4. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    5. Sally Field, Lincoln

    Best Supporting Actor

    1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
    2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    3. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Alan Arkin, Argo
    5. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

  • http://cinemmaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

    I have said this before, I will say it again .. a crowd pleaser like Impossible or Moonrise Kingdom will have a better shot than Anna Karenina. I am not sure how can Anna be even in contention when its only hope was lofty critical acclaims, obviously which it didn't receive.

    • Anymouse

      Moonrise maybe, but I have a slightly hard time seeing The Impossible being chosen over Anna. Impossible may have a crowd-pleasing ending, but the rest of the film is incredibly difficult to watch. Not because it's awful (I maintain that it isn't), but because it's so realistic to the point of claustrophobia. It's a good thing that it's realistic, but I'm not sure the old men at the Academy would take a horror-disaster film over a relatively harmless and rather inventive period piece. I have my doubts that Anna will make it in at all, but I think it's likelier to do so than Impossible. Impossible has far more chances in the technical categories, and maybe Naomi Watts for Best Actress.

      • http://cinemmaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

        It's difficult to watch not because of goriness ( which obviously Academy will hate) but because it sentimental (which Academy loves). Had Anna been a typical period piece I would have given it a chance but its very unconventional that's why it's difficult for Academy to digest. More so because, most of the members would already have seen Anna in different forms in the past and to present in any other outlandish manner would be sanctimonious for them. Coming back to Impossible, most of the war-themed movies are tragic and at times even difficult to watch but they are humanist too and that's why they are rank favorites among Academy. Not that Impossible is a war movie but it shares the similar triumph of human spirit values. Difference is these humans are fighting against circumstances laden by nature and not any enemy.

  • Unknown/Anonymous

    Let's hope 'The Master' can get into the nominations field without certain Scientologists trying to corrupt the results (trying to block it out).

  • Lorraine

    No need to see the movies not even predict. Anything or anyone who Harvey Weinstein is pushing forward will be a winner. Weinstein has a couple of movies in the run so his movies and respective cast will be first and second winners. Don't bother people. Harvey rules Hollywood.

    • Stiggy

      On the other hand the fact that he has multiple films possibly in the running could be the achillies heel as they might split the vote.

  • Mikky

    Jennifer Lawrence has less screen-time in 'Silver linings playbook" than Berenice Bejo in "The artist" and Bejo got nominated for a supporting role. I think it should be like that because my two favorites performances of the year are Marion Cotillard in "Rust and bone" and Jennifer Lawrence for "Silver Linings Playbook".This way, it would be fair for both of them. Marion getting FINALLY her very well-deserved second statue after having been completely ignored by the academy for her past work on "Public Enemies", "Nine", "Inception" and maybe even "Midnight in Paris". And of course, Jennifer getting her first oscar in a supporting role for her very good year and because she is very talented but a bit young and it will feel like a robbery if she wins in a leading role . Remember the past winners like Maryl Streep last year or Charlize Theron in "Monsters" or even Marion Cotillard in "La vie en rose", THAT are oscars-roles caliber, not 42 minutes on screen. That's just enough for a supporting one. I LOVE Jennifer but if she wins, in a few years people will questioned why did she won? Was it because she was famous at the time? or because of the Hunger games? or maybe because we were too pride to give it to a foreign actress again? I would rather see Jennifer wining whith real leading role.

  • Raaphael S

    Looks like my list would match everyone else's. only exception and hopefully they throw in a bit more unexpected like Arbritage... And Nate Parker for Supp Act, and I think Anne H could move to Lead Act.

    Wish there was place for weird indie Delian films like Cosmopolis. That killed and I would discount Nicole Kidman as Supp Act nom.

  • Noureddine

    I think Liam Neeson have a pretty good chance this year for The Grey.