Oscar Predictions

2013 Oscar Prediction Poll: Who Fills the Fourth and Fifth Best Supporting Actress Slots?

Smith, Dowd, Dench, Adams or Kidman?

2013 Oscar Prediction Poll: Who Fills the Fourth and Fifth Best Supporting Actress Slots?

Let's say for a second we all agree Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Sally Field (Lincoln) and Helen Hunt (The Sessions) will be nominated for Best Supporting Actress on Thursday morning. You may think one or more of those ladies won't make the cut, but for argument's sake let's just say they will all be nominated, leaving us with two spots to fill... Who gets in?

Realistically, I see it down to five names -- Amy Adams (The Master), Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel), Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) and Ann Dowd (Compliance).

Now you have to assume an actress would need to be listed in the top three on the nomination ballots. Let's also remember these nominations are decided by the Actors Branch of the Academy, which may mean you will look at the 2013 Screen Actors Guild Award nominations for a little help... Here's those nominations:

  • Sally Field (Lincoln)
  • Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
  • Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
  • Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
  • Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

The 2013 Golden Globe nominations were similar with Adams getting in over Smith. Looking at the Critics Choice nods they also didn't nominate Smith, but did nominate Adams along with Judi Dench (Skyfall) and Dowd. They, of course, nominated six actresses, which doesn't exactly make it a fair comparison.

If you ask me, I think Adams is in for a nomination so I'm only really looking to fill that fifth slot and I can't decide between Smith, Kidman, Weaver or Dowd as it's easy to make a case for each, but right now I want to know what you think.

I have listed nine names below and you can choose up to five of them. Now I understand there may be a name you would prefer be nominated, but remember we're trying to predict what will actually happen, not what we hope will happen so these are the nine you get to choose from.

Predict the Five Best Supporting Actress Nominees at the 2013 Oscars

  • Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) (753 Votes)
  • Sally Field (Lincoln) (713 Votes)
  • Helen Hunt (The Sessions) (678 Votes)
  • Amy Adams (The Master) (605 Votes)
  • Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) (320 Votes)
  • Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) (286 Votes)
  • Ann Dowd (Compliance) (148 Votes)
  • Judi Dench (Skyfall) (144 Votes)
  • Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) (109 Votes)

Total Voters: 870

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Vote away and let's see how this turns out. Tomorrow I'll have my final predictions before Thursday morning's Oscar nominations and just maybe you'll be able to push me in the "right" direction.

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  • Winchester

    Personally, I agree Hathaway, Hunt and Field are in.................I voted for Kidman just for the hell of it as really any of the others could crop up on the day.

    I'll even throw in Dowd as I think it could be cool if her self starter attitude paid off a bit.

  • D.A.M.

    It only let me select one choice

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Try again, something got messed up so I cleared the logs.

  • DavidG

    I think Amy Adams has a pretty strong hold on that fourth slot. The fifth is anyone's guess, but my money would be on Maggie Smith.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Mv11391/ Michael

    Hathaway, Field & Hunt are easily locked. I think Amy Adams is pretty much in on the 4th slot despite the snub of the SAG's. The 5th slot is up in the air, i'm taking Maggie Smith just cause i've had her there from day 1 but I wouldn't get mad if Kidman, Weaver & Dowd takes it.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Aleonardis/ Aleonardis

    Something to watch for come Oscar Morning: If Dench gets in for Supporting and then Bardem, then here comes the Skyfall Best Pic nom.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      I'd like that.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/jinjuriki187/ jinjuriki187

    samantha barks or kelly Reilly from les mis and flight should get the fifth slot. i might even put both of them in over amy adams.

  • http://www.criterion.com/my_criterion/27913-criterion10 Criterion10

    Don't see Kidman getting in. Not too much buzz on that one, despite some surprise nominations.

    By the way, anyone else feel this is a really week field of supporting actresses this year? Granted, I still haven't seen Les Mis, The Sessions, nor Compliance, but still. Not too much that get's me excited here.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Aleonardis/ Aleonardis

      WE might not be hearing anything, but Kidman is highly regarded in the industry and she's been really pushing for this nom. She gets nominated for breathing. She got acclaim for Hemingway and Gellhorn which was pretty terrible.

      As far as weak fields and such, I'm of the opinion that you only need to look for what's good and you'll find it. I can probably name 15 for EACH category. And that's in any year.

      Every single actor in Les Mis is on point. Helen Hunt is the best female performance this year outside of Hathaway and Chastain. Even Ann Dowd holds her own.

      If I had a ballot though, this would be my choices:

      Emily Blunt - Looper
      Kylie Minogue - Holy Motors
      Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
      Eva Green - Dark Shadows
      Rebel Wilson - Pitch Perfect

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Kessler/ Kessler

    Hathaway, Field and Hint are definitely locks. I don't see Adams getting in because The Master has been losing steam and her lack of a SAG nomination doesn't help. What about Helen Mirren for Hithcock? I know she hasn't had a big push for a nomination, but she could be a surprise.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

      Helen Mirren's being pushed lead.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Mirren is in the Best Actress category.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Kessler/ Kessler

        Oh that's right. For some reason I thought she was supporting. My bad.

      • Jesse3232

        Is Christoph Waltz considered best actor or supporting actor?

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

          Supporting

  • Iglooverbal

    I really hope that Nicole Kidman can get the nomination.

  • Roux

    Personally, I don't think this vote will be legitimate because everybody just follows you, Brad and from what I've read so far on this website I don't think too many saw Compliance for which Ann Dowd really stands the biggest chance above Smith, Kidman, Dench and most of all Weaver beacause i still don't get why you would even consider her (and I LOVED Silver Linings Playbook).

    Would have loved to see somebody like Shannon Beer or Kaya Scodelarion from Wuthering Heights on this list.

  • Dale

    I've been a bit hot and cold on Nicole Kidman over the years, but she blew me away in "The Paperboy." I think the five noms will be her, Adams, Field, Hunt, and Hathaway, with Field the probable winner.

  • Spencer H.

    Amy Adams - The Master
    Samantha Barks - Les Misérables
    Sally Field - Lincoln
    Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
    Helen Hunt - The Sessions

    I really want Samantha Barks to be nominated, because she was fantastic as Éponine and she was born to play that role. She's one of the biggest breakthrough performers I've seen all year, and I'm pissed that she's been overlooked by many award organizations to be nominated for Best Supporting Actress. Her performance in the film, particularly when she sang "On My Own", gave me an impression that she will have big acting career in movies ahead of her. As it turned out, Éponine is my favorite character in Les Misérables, second to Jean Valjean (Hugh Jackman).

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    I honestly just voted for four, the top three and Adams. I think it's a complete tossup between Smith and Kidman for the last slot and I truly have no idea who it will be. Currently Kidman has a two vote lead, which seams to bear that out.

    And is it just me, or is this category quietly moving in Field's direction. She supposedly gave a great speech at some recent ceremony, and I'm really thinking Lincoln could be in for a major sweepy kind of night. It won't win double digits (I don't think), but I think it could win five of the six majors.

    • Jake17

      I considered putting Field ahead of Hathaway, but there seem to be enough people who really hated Field's performance, so I'm staying with Hathaway for now.

      • Jake17

        But I don't know about any of this stuff, so who knows?

  • marion

    ADAMS
    FIELD
    HATHAWAY
    HUNT
    KIDMAN

  • Chris138

    Samantha Barks was the standout for me in Les Miserables (yes, even more so than Anne Hathaway) but I doubt she'll get the nomination. I don't really see the hype behind Amy Adams in The Master, although I think the fault lies more in the writing there rather than her performance. I'd be all for Judi Dench getting a nod, and perhaps she has a small chance at it. If she does then I think Skyfall will be one of the Best Picture nominees.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

    Sally Field (Lincoln)
    Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
    Amy Adams (The Master)
    Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

  • Newbourne

    Phoenix sunk the whole ship when it comes to The Master. I don't see Adams getting in. Smith is beloved by everyone since her two Downton Abbey wins so I can see her getting in. And as much as I want Dowd to get in, I'm predicting Kidman gets that 5th spot.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/maja/ maja

    I think that Kidman will get the fifth slot. Quite deserved too for a great performance is a very mediocre film.

  • Tiger Nueng

    Nicole Kidman!!!

  • M

    Kidman! Should and will.

  • MajorFilmFan

    I predict Hathaway, Field and Hunt, Samantha Barks, and Nicole Kidman will be nominated.

  • http://www.seensome.com SeenSome

    I know the BAFTAs tend to skew slightly British but I'm geting the feeling that a Dench nod will happen for Skyfall but also with Best Exotic in mind, a film that I'm pretty amazed is still part of the conversation.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    Anne Hathaway
    Sally Field
    Helen Hunt
    Amy Adams
    Maggie Smith

    I think 'Merigold' is more of an "Acadamey" film. Plus the Acadamey loves elderly people, honestly.

    I don't see Ann Dowd or Jacki Weaver getting in

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Satu/ Satu

    I chose those three plus Adams and Dowd, just because I hope she would get in.

  • SP1234

    I think Adams will definately be nominated, but I don't see any of the other five getting in. Expecting a surprise nomination for Barks.

    The three For Your Consideration choices I have:

    Doona Bae (Cloud Atlas)
    Emily Blunt (Looper)
    Eva Green (Dark Shadows)

  • Sylvia

    Nicole Kidman for sure. Fingers crossed... it'll be a close race no matter what. Good year actually.