2008 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Picture and Director Nominees
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Two incredible things happened last Sunday evening. The first incredible event was Eli Manning leading my New York Giants to a victory over Tony Romo and his Cowboys. The second incredible event was me sitting through five minutes of NBC's broadcast of the Golden Globe Awards. Yes, the 65th Annual Golden Globes or "The Best Reason Yet to Resolve the WGA Strike" invaded some of our lives last night. It came, it saw, it traumatized.
Like not-so-many of my fellow Americans, I made the mistake of tuning into NBC's coverage of the awards. After blacking out momentarily, I quickly switched over to CNN's half-hour coverage because … it was a half-hour shorter. Also, I could at least hear the warm voice of Uncle Larry King. And let me tell you, King might be the John Madden of the news and entertainment world. They both make ridiculously obvious statements. They both make ridiculous assertions (I implore you to pick up the cover-box of the 1995 Sylvester Stallone-Antonio Banderas movie, Assassins and look at the quote from Mr. King). They're both really, really old. And they're both clearly insane.
I've been covering the awards shows for a couple of years now (and by covering I mean sitting on my couch with popcorn, loads of Redbull and a rosary). I always make fun of the fact that the shows are overly long and this is where I will give credit to last Sunday's broadcast: at least this was bite-size torture; at least it wasn't four hours of non-stop, excruciating, Hostel-like pain. It's not like the pain didn't hurt and it's not like it couldn't have been shorter. I was definitely gut in the belly pretty good. It just didn't last as long and it makes me wonder why they even bothered televising the thing. Who would ever watch something like this again? Other than masochists, I mean. Seriously, who?
So ends the rant.
And now onto a look at the individual races for the Oscars; who are the locks, who are the "maybes" and who might be on the outside looking in. Let's get it on!
The following films are those that have even an outside chance at a Best Picture nomination.
American Gangster
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Eastern Promises
The Great Debaters
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Once
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
The Locks: No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood
After that, it gets hella interesting. It's really all over the place. Of the above films, I would say Charlie Wilson is dead, dead, dead. The Great Debaters isn't getting enough love. And Once would be a real shocker at this point. These are extreme dark horses.
But I do believe — in a way completely devoid of proof (I'm borrowing some Box Office Oracle wattage here) — that movies like Diving Bell, Eastern Promises and Into the Wild have quiet but strong support among the Academy. These last three are the real dark horses that would not surprise me.
American Gangster, Atonement and Sweeney Todd are would-be contenders that I'm unsure have enough support.
Juno and Michael Clayton are the movies everybody seems to love, but do voters love them enough to usurp the likes of Ridley Scott's, Tim Burton's or Joe Wright's movies? Are they too entertaining for the artsy-fartsy crowd? Is there a contingent of voters who feel voting for Diving Bell and the Butterfly will be the vote they are most proud of twenty years from now when — in their mind — Juno and Michael Clayton will seem marginal choices?
Many things to consider here, more so than most years; not simply because of the large number of quality films in 2007 (don't forget the buzz-lite features like The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward of Robert Ford, Zodiac and Reign Over Me), but also because of the unique spread of films. No two films I've mentioned yet are anything alike and that is why it's so hard to guesstimate this stuff. Sometimes you do have two films that are at least a little similar in type and one is just clearly better or getting more buzz than the other. Not really the case this year.
But screw all that, I have to pick'em right? Well here it goes. With a gun to my head, these are the movies I believe will be the nominees for Best Picture of 2007:
Atonement
Michael Clayton
Juno
No Country for Old Men
There will Be Blood
Spoiler movies that give me the most pause: Into the Wild and Diving Bell and the Butterfly, especially Into the Wild
I know a lot of people bitch and moan that their favorite films weren't nominated and I'm susceptible to that kind of complaining. It's completely ridiculous in a way because it's all so subjective. But I will say that I care less about the Academy picking my favorite films that I do in getting the Academy to think outside the box. This is my real gripe with the Academy and if it is a slaying of would-be shoe-ins like Atonement that sparks a sort of risorgimento this year in the way the Academy thinks and what they consider to be "Best Picture Contenders" then so be it. Fine. Change the way you think about the process and films worthy of attention. Nominate comedic performances. Nominate more original movies that aren't safe and comfortable. Don't fear nominating well-made commercial fare. Do these things in place of quality albeit more typical Oscary movies like Atonement, and I have no complaint.
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If Juno gets a best picture nom I will light myself on fire. Just wanted that on the record.
Can I be the one to light you on fire? Because I am with Dre and believe Juno will get a nom.
anybody have a match and plane ticket to seattle on hand?