Box Office News

2014 Summer Box Office Top Ten Predictions, Global and Domestic

Am I missing one? Which ten would you pick?

2014 Summer Box Office Predictions

I've been asked by another site to list what I think will be the top ten films at this summer's global box office. No small task, but maybe it will be a little easier than predicting domestic results because only the most popular will be considered while films like Sex Tape, 22 Jump Street, Tammy and Think Like a Man Too don't really stand a chance. All that said, what this will definitely do is help me prepare for the Summer Box Office Challenge on the podcast where the draft for the months of May-August is coming up shortly.

Taking a look at the obvious contenders we have The Amazing Spider-Man 2, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Transformers: Age of Extinction, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy and probably Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. And that's seven so we only need three more.

So what else is there? Seth MacFarlane coming off Ted (which finished fifth overall in 2012 with $549.4m) with A Million Ways to Die in the West, Angelina Jolie in Maleficent, the excellent looking Godzilla, the Wachowski's weird looking Jupiter Ascending and the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner Edge of Tomorrow.

And so that's 12, which means I only need to cut two. If I were only considering the domestic possibilities I'd have at least 16 titles to choose from. If we looked at previous years at the domestic Summer Box Office you'd see The Great Gatsby was number ten on last year's list, coming in with $144.8 million. The year before that Prometheus was in tenth with $126.4 million, Bridesmaids before that with $169.7 million and The Other Guys in 2010 with $119 million. My guess would be a film will need to make at least $150 million to crack this year's domestic summer top ten. That said, let's look at both.

Domestic Summer Box Office Predictions

  1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
  2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
  3. How to Train Your Dragon 2
  4. Guardians of the Galaxy
  5. Maleficent
  6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  7. X-Men: Days of Future Past
  8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
  9. 22 Jump Street
  10. Godzilla

Global Summer Box Office Predictions

  1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
  2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
  3. Guardians of the Galaxy
  4. Godzilla
  5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
  6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  7. How to Train Your Dragon 2
  8. X-Men: Days of Future Past
  9. Maleficent
  10. Edge of Tomorrow

I wasn't asked to come up with dollar figures (and they wouldn't be accurate if I tried), but I do expect Transformers 4 to cross one billion and wouldn't be surprised to see Spider-Man 2 do the same. It's hard to tell what Guardians of the Galaxy will do as it is a new Marvel property, but I know I'm interested in seeing it and Marvel has pretty much got this marketing thing down pat.

I'm also curious about Maleficent, which seems like a film that could do much better than where I have it positioned, especially if it's any good.

Taking a look, what do you think? Any films I've missed or placed too high on the list?

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  • Joao Costa

    TMNT won't come close to the top 10. And internationally the movie only opens after the Summer (September/October).

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Ugh, I guess I have that one wrong then. I knew that would be an issue with my global predictions.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/JohnDoeSnow/ John Doe Snow

    I just fell like Godzilla will overperform and be a global hit like World War Z was last year. I'm not confident about Dawn though...I can see this movie making less than the first one, in a Muppets kind of thing, if you know what I mean. Not sure why. But I can say I wasn't impressed by the trailer and I'm not anticipating the movie.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/JohnDoeSnow/ John Doe Snow

      Transformers 4 $1.0b
      The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $900m
      How to Train Your Dragon 2 $900m
      Maleficent $650m
      Godzilla $620m
      X-Men: Days of Future Past $610m
      Guardians of the Galaxy $580m
      Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $400m
      Edge of Tomorrow $390m
      22 Jump Street $350m

  • cineJAB

    My Domestic Top Ten looks like

    1. X-Men Days of Future Past
    2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
    3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    4. Godzilla
    5. Transformers 4
    6. Maleficent
    7. 22 Jump Street
    8. Planet of the Apes
    9. Guardians of the Galaxy
    10. Neighbors

  • andyluvsfilms

    Ok, here's my Global Top 10

    1. Transformers
    2. Guardians Of The Galaxy
    3. Spider-Man 2
    4. How To Train Your Dragon 2
    5. X-Men DOFP
    6. Godzilla
    7. Dawn Of The Planet Of Apes
    8. Edge Of Tomorrow
    9. TMNT
    10 or 50th Jupiter Ascending

  • http://filmemignon.blogspot.com/ Corbin

    Domestic Top Ten:

    1. Trans4mers (as it should be called)
    2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
    3. The Amazing Spider Man 2
    4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    5. Guardians of the Galaxy
    6. X-Men: DOFP
    7. Godzilla
    8. 22 Jump Street
    9. Maleficent
    10. Edge of Tomorrow

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/azjoker1/ azjoker1

    Domestic:

    1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
    3. How to Train Your Dragon 2
    4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    6. Guardians of the Galaxy
    7. Godzilla
    8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
    9. 22 Jump Street
    10. Maleficent

    Global:

    1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
    2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    3. How to Train Your Dragon 2
    4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    5. Godzilla
    6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    7. Guardians of the Galaxy
    8. Maleficent
    9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
    10. 22 Jump Street

  • Justin Golding

    Top global with dollar signs; feel free to use for your upcoming box office challenge with Laremy :)

    Transformers: Age of Extinction $1 billion
    The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $900 million
    How to Train Your Dragon 2 $750 million
    Guardians of the Galaxy $500 million
    Godzilla $450 million
    X-Men: Days of Future Past $450 million
    Maleficent $430 million
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $400 million
    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles $350 million
    Edge of Tomorrow $325 million

    That's my best guess though

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    It took a summer box office forecast to bring me out of my commenting hibernation.

    Transformers seems like the safest bet for #1, but I'm not sleeping on Dragon.
    Despicable Me showed explosive growth with its sequel and I think there's
    similar potential here, especially since the first Dragon was a March release
    and likely would have done even better in the summer. It's also the only major
    animated release of the entire summer (how on earth did that happen?), so I
    think $300 million domestic / $900 million worldwide are all but guaranteed.
    Transformers on the other hand is in decline domestically (not worldwide where
    it will likely win the year, something that franchise has never done), and this
    one has the feel of also being a reboot. I think it will fall below $350
    million domestically, which means Dragon will have a great chance to beat it.
    Worldwide though it's probably looking at $1.2 billion-plus.

    Personally I think you're way high on Spider-Man, especially domestically. That
    franchise has actually seen declining domestic totals with every single sequel
    (and the remake) since the first film in 2002. I don't see any reason for this
    trend to reverse at this point so somewhere below $250 million is where I see
    it ending up. Which means to hit $1 billion it would need a greater than 4x
    multiplier, which I just don't see. Somewhere in the $700-800 million range
    worldwide seems about right.

    X-Men is a tough one since that franchise hasn't done spectacularly well
    compared to most other Marvel properties. It's definitely being pushed as a
    huge event movie and has a great release date, and is adding 3D inflation for
    the first time (not counting Wolverine last summer). Still, $300 million seems
    like a stretch without shattering the franchise's historical trends.

    Apes seems like it should improve on the first one, which seems pretty
    well-liked. I thought Caesar was an interesting character but founds the humans
    awful. Fortunately they're all dead and then can start over. It should be able
    to top $200 million and maybe go a little higher.

    John Doe Snow’s WWZ comparison for Godzilla sounds like it could be accurate. It looks good in the marketing and they’re going to great pains to tie it back to the Japanese original. But this is one that will depend on reviews and somewhere around $200 million domestic seems like a best case. Worldwide though it will be huge, unless it’s absolutely terrible. I’m thinking somewhere around $800 million.

    I have no idea what to do with Guardians...it's an unknown quantity outside of
    the comic fans, so it will likely depend on reviews. August is also a much
    slower month than the rest of the summer but that doesn't mean the right movie
    can't break out there. The only MCU character to top $200 million domstically
    in his initial film was Iron Man so I wouldn’t be surprised if Guardians fails
    to get there either, especially with the softer release date. Probably $500-600
    million globally.

    The question with Maleficent is whether Angelina Jolie in heavy makeup is appealing as Johnny Depp. I’m betting no, by a landslide. I think the movie will have a harder time bringing in men (not fair but true, especially since Jolie isn’t exactly playing sexy ass-kicker here).

    None of the others honestly seem interesting enough to talk about 22 Jump Street could be the R-rated breakout hit of the summer, or it could fall below the first one. Edge of Tomorrow just seems so unappealing to me (it feels like I Frankenstein with robots) so I don’t even care to predict its prospects.

    Domestic Top Eight (best potential for $200 million-plus)

    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2, $350 million
    2. Transformers 4, $340 million
    3. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $275 million
    4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $250 million
    5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, $235 million
    6. Godzilla, $225 million
    7. 22 Jump Street, $200 million
    8. Guardians of the Galaxy, $180 million

    Worldwide Top Eight
    1. Transformers 4, $1.2 billion
    2. How to Train Your Dragon 2, $1 billion
    3. Godzilla, $800 million
    4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, $780 million
    (I'm not confident enough to predict numbers for the next four)
    5. Guardians of the Galaxy
    6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    7. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    8. Maleficent

    As always there will probably be at least one surprise breakout hit domestically, which is where the last couple spots will fill in.

  • Rands2113

    It would be great to see TMNT crack the top 10, I don't want it to be one of those big budget movies that flop in the Summer. Lucy is also releasing the same day as TMNT so it might get some solid numbers to compete against it. I recently saw the trailer for Maleficent and don't think it'll be a record breaker or a top ten. I don't like that most recreations of Disney stories have to have big monsters and a war all the time just to make use of CGI and bring in a wider demographic, It makes summer action movies just blend into one giant movie in my head. Edge of Tomorrow looks horrible.

    • cetrata

      What if you don't like TMNT or even hate it?

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Roger/ Roger

    Domestic:

    1) Transformers: Age of Extinction
    2) How To Train Your Dragon 2
    3) The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    4) X-Men: Days of Future Past
    5) Guardians of the Galaxy
    6) Godzilla
    7) 22 Jump Street
    8) Maleficent
    9) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    10) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    Global:

    1) Transformers: Age of Extinction
    2) The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    3) How To Train Your Dragon 2
    4) Guardians of the Galaxy
    5) Godzilla
    6) X-Men Days of Future Past
    7) Maleficent
    8) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    9) Edge of Tomorrow
    10) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Rob/ Rob

    I don't know, I still really like the summer movie season, but is it me, or has the summer season lost some of its appeal over the years? I remember in 2008 being so incredibly excited for Iron Man because it was the first truly big film of the year and it marked the start of summer. Same for other films like Mission: Impossible III in 2006.

    Now, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 starts summer this year, but I've already seen movies like Captain America: The Winter Soldier and 300: Rise of an Empire, two films that have the budget, effects, action, marketing, and brand tie-in of any other summer blockbuster. Throw in other films like The Lego Movie, Noah, and Mr. Peabody & Sherman, and it's sort of like having too big an appetizer and not being able to enjoy the main entree. Like I said, I still enjoy summer, but some of what made it special has disappeared.

    As far as guessing Top 10 domestic, I'll say:

    1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
    2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
    3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    5. Godzilla
    6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    7. Guardians of the Galaxy
    8. Maleficent
    9. The Fault in Our Stars (one wildcard always makes the top 10)
    10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

  • http://letterboxd.com/gman/ G-Man

    Ha - I actually took a stab at this yesterday. Here is my top 15 ranking for Worldwide:

    1)Transformers: Age
    of Extinction

    2) How To Train Your Dragon 2

    3) The Amazing Spider-Man 2

    4) Maleficent

    5) X-Men: Days of Future Past

    6) Guardians of the Galaxy

    7) Godzilla

    8) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

    9) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    10) Edge of Tomorrow

    11) Jupiter Ascending (this looks so bad to me - just saw trailer yesterday)
    12) Earth To Echo (am I the only one really looking forward to this?)
    13) 22 Jump Street
    14) Blended
    15) Tammy

  • Inkram

    Domestic
    1. Transformers 4
    2. How To Train Your Dragon 2
    3. Guardians of the Galaxy
    4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    5. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    6. Maleficent
    7. Godzilla
    8. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    9. 22 Jump Street
    10. The Fault in Our Stars/A Million Ways to Die in the West

    Global
    1. Transformers 4
    2. How To Train Your Dragon 2
    3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    4. Maleficent
    5. Guardians of the Galaxy
    6. Godzilla
    7. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    8. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
    10. 22 Jump Street/A Million Ways to Die in the West

  • http://letterboxd.com/austin/ Austin Gorski

    Top Ten of The Summer
    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 - $288.6 million
    2. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $280.9 million
    3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $275.7 million
    4. Godzilla - $238.3 million
    5. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $230.4 million
    6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $193.7 million
    7. Guardians of the Galaxy - $188.4 million
    8. Maleficent - $155.4 million
    9. 22 Jump Street - $143.8 million
    10. Neighbors - $125.9 million

    Top Ten Opening Weekends
    1. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $115.3 million
    2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $112.1 million
    3. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $80.9 million
    4. How to Train Your Dragon 2 - $79.8 million
    5. Godzilla - $76.0 million
    6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $63.2 million
    7. Guardians of the Galaxy - $61.2 million
    8. Maleficent - $49.0 million
    9. 22 Jump Street - $39.2 million
    10. Think Like A Man Too - $34.9 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/PzyKo/ Max

    I'm not even going to try. I do the weekly predictions, but I always do terrible at it anyway. For all I care, the box office can go suck it.

  • http://letterboxd.com/mrthejarret/ Jarret

    Here's my domestic predictions (I don't know anything about worldwide).

    1. Transformers 4: Electric Boogaloo (unfortunately)
    2. How To Train Your Dragon 2
    3. The Amazing Spider Man 2
    4. X-Men: Days Of Futures Past
    5. Godzilla
    6. Guardians Of The Galaxy
    7. Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes
    8. 22 Jump Street
    9. A Million Ways To Die In The West
    10. Maleficent

    I think Jupiter Ascending will push for #10.

    • cetrata

      I actually think dragons 2 will come out on top domestically.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/chewbaca38/ Baca

    I think 22 Jump Street will smoke Edge of Tomorrow.

  • cetrata

    1. How to Train your Dragon 2: At least 325 million
    2-3. Toss up between ASM2 and Transformers 4 with 275-300 million each.
    4. Dawn of the planet of the apes
    5. X Men
    6. Malificient
    7. Godzilla
    8-9 Toss up between guardians and 22 jump street
    10. Either a comedy or a surprise hit.

    • cetrata

      Globally though, Transformers 4 will win.

  • cetrata

    I think Dragons will come out on top domestically. This summer is lacking in kids films and spiderman peaked already and transformers is likely to suffer from fatigue. Globablly though, it will be transformers as for every 2 people that drop out of transformers, another 3 flock like sheep.

    • Haku

      Transformers having fatigue? C'mon, each movie has been doing better than the last, financially wise. Despite each one seemingly being worse than the next, they just keep getting more and more money. I highly doubt that pattern will suddenly break with the forth one, especially since it has robotic dinosaurs backing it up, and you know damn well audiences will eat that shit up.

      • cetrata

        Domestically, the third one dropped from the second. The fourth one will probably see another drop domestically. Of course, worldwide, it will be another billion dollar hit. Thats what I mean by fatigue.

      • cetrata

        BTW, the tagline should be new players, same rules.

  • ASFan

    Don't forget about Neighbors. That's gotten raves out of SXSW.

  • Nick

    Sin city 2

  • JohnB

    If Fast and Furious comes out this summer you can bet that'll bring in the PM money. also the Jupiter Ascending movie will probably bring in the dough.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Jack/ Jack Tyler

    1. Transformers 4
    2. How To Train Your Dragon 2
    3. XMen: Days of Future Past
    4. Amazing Spiderman 2
    5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    6. Maleficent
    7. Godzilla
    8. Guardians of the Galaxy
    9. 22 Jump Street
    10. TMNT

  • ClassicWingers

    I'm hoping you've placed X-Men too low. I think the franchise earned a lot of good will from First Class. It's my most anticipated hero film this season.